Private Housing Supply Shrinking As Prices Fall

Source : The Business Times, January 24, 2009

Developers delay projects' expected completion dates to beyond 2011

DEVELOPERS appear to be turning their backs on the property market, deferring more projects as property prices keep falling.

Private residential property prices fell 4.7 per cent last year. This, after rising over 30 per cent in 2007. On a quarterly basis, prices fell 6.1 per cent.



























And according to statistics from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), the number of private residential homes expected to be completed between 2009 and 2011 is now also expected to be lower.

URA said that as at Q4 2008, there were 64,982 private residential units in the pipeline. Of these, about 31,000 units were expected to be completed between 2009 and 2011, lower than the pipeline supply of about 34,600 private residential units as at Q3 2008.

URA said that the decline in the pipeline supply was mainly because a number of developers had in Q4 2008, made adjustments to the expected year of completion of their private housing projects to beyond 2011.

DTZ senior director for research Chua Chor Hoon said that while developers have already been delaying completions over the last few quarters, the momentum increased in Q4 2008. She also believes that with the recent Budget announcements giving developers more leeway to delay completion of their projects, 'there would be further adjustments to improve the supply-demand balance'.

Still, she notes that 10,448 private housing units are expected to be completed this year, which is higher than the past 10-year average of 8,700 units. 'These projects are at the advanced stage of construction and cannot be delayed. These would add pressure on prices and rentals.'

While the property tax deferment on approved development sites is expected to cost the government $290 million over the next two years, Knight Frank director of research and development Nicholas Mak said that this will not have much impact on the supply pipeline - but only because many developers have already decided to do this. He does, however, believe that it will help developers bear the holding costs.

Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho added: 'I don't think these (Budget) measures per se will reverse the slide in the property market. The dominant factors in the near term are the increase in white-collar unemployment and falling household income.'

Poorer economic prospects are more likely to persuade developers to defer projects.

Already, of the 64,982 uncompleted units in the pipeline, 43,414 units were still unsold. These comprised 3,880 units that had been launched for sale by developers and 14,386 units which had the pre-requisite conditions for sale and could be launched for sale immediately. The remaining 25,148 units with planning approvals did not have the pre-requisite conditions for sale.

Prices of non-landed properties fell by 6.3 per cent in Q4 2008 compared with the decline of 2.5 per cent in the previous quarter. For the full year, prices of non-landed properties fell by 5.3 per cent.

Prices of non-landed properties in Core Central Region1 (CCR) fell by 6.5 per cent in the quarter while prices of non-landed properties in Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR) fell by 6.2 per cent and 5.9 per cent respectively. For the whole 2008, prices of non-landed properties in CCR, RCR and OCR fell by 5.6, 4.7 and 2.9 per cent respectively.

Mr Mak said that despite the mass market sector experiencing the slightest decline in home prices, a drop in prices in OCR reflected that buying interest for mass-market private homes has waned. 'Prices of mass-market homes were initially thought to be able to hold better than high-end private residential properties in 2008, as some buyers settle for mass-market private homes for lower-cost alternatives. However, the cautious homebuying sentiments have become so significant that some homeseekers chose to purchase HDB resale flats,' he added.

Rental decline accelerated, easing by 5.3 per cent in Q4 2008 quarter-on-quarter. Mr Mak noted: 'On a yearly basis, the 2 per cent growth rate in 2008, though still positive, is a far cry from the double-digit expansion observed in the last two years.'

Last year saw the total number of homes sold fall to 13,593 units, down from a record high of 40,654 units in 2007.

CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho notes that the fall in sales volume was seen in both the primary and secondary markets, with only 419 new homes, 965 resale homes and 203 sub-sales registered in the fourth quarter. 'The decline in sales momentum was indeed significant as both home-buyers and developers retreated from the market,' noted Mr Li.

For the whole year, the 4,264 new private homes sold was a record low, and made up only 29 per cent of the 14,811 new homes sold in 2007. Similarly, a total of 7,701 resale homes were transacted last year, compared with 20,980 sold in 2007. Sub-sales fell to 1,628 in 2008 from 4,097 in 2007.

40% Tax Rebate For Owner-Occupied Residential Properties

Source : The Business Times, January 23, 2009

THE government will provide a 40 per cent property tax rebate for owner-occupied residential properties for 2009 in a bid to ease the financial burden on households this year.

The rebates will cost the government some $75 million in all, said Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam yesterday.

He also said that right now, owners who own higher-value homes (homes with a net annual value of more than $150,000) or secondary residences have to pay income tax on the net annual value of their property. This tax will be removed from year of assessment 2010 onwards.

The net annual value of a property is an estimate of how much the property will fetch on the rental market, less related expenses.

Analysts said that the 40 per cent property tax rebate is a broad measure that will help most households here, as most homes in Singapore are owner-occupied. Right now, the property tax for owner-occupied homes stands at 4 per cent of the property's net annual value.

On the other hand, income tax exemption for higher-value homes or secondary residences will affect few. Most properties have a net annual value of less than $150,000, said Ooi Boon Jin, executive director of KPMG Tax Services.

Analysts said that the two measures should be taken together with all the other handouts announced yesterday.

'If you look at the whole thing holistically, families will save a few hundred here, a few hundred there, which all adds up,' said Choo Eng Chuan, tax services partner at Ernst & Young. 'A 40 per cent property tax rebate for owner-occupied homes is a broad-based measure.'

Some analysts pointed out that owners who rent out their properties will not benefit from the property tax rebate. The property tax on rental properties is 10 per cent of the net annual value.

The government yesterday offered a 40 per cent property tax rebate to landlords of industrial and commercial properties. If this had been extended to residential properties as well, it would have helped ease the financial burden of Singapore's expatriate community - if the rebates are passed on by the landlords - said Tay Huey Ying, Colliers' director for research and advisory. 'This will help to improve Singapore's cost competitiveness,' she said.

Mr Tharman also said that to ensure that public housing remains affordable to first-time home buyers, the government has decided to increase and broaden the Additional CPF Housing Grant (AHG) for first-time home-buyers.

It will increase the maximum grant amount to $40,000, from $30,000 previously. At the same time, the household income ceiling will also be raised from $4,000 to $5,000.

'Another 2,700 first- time home-buyers will benefit from the enhanced AHG every year, bringing the number of beneficiaries of the AHG scheme to 8,000 yearly,' said Mr Tharman.

The enhancements will more than double the estimated cost of the AHG scheme to about $150 million a year.

$75m Relief For Home Owners

Source : The Straits Times, Jan 23, 2009

One-off 40 per cent rebate means property tax stands at 2.4 per cent for lived-in properties

HUNDREDS of thousands of home owners will get a one-off 40 per cent property tax rebate this year.

The rebate is for owner-occupied residential homes and will cost the Government $75 million.

This move is even more drastic than the 15 per cent property tax rebate given in the 1998 Budget that followed the Asian financial crisis, noted Ernst & Young's director of human capital and tax services, Ms Wu Soo Mee.

Market watchers welcomed the move. 'This is one that will reach out to the widest number of people, whether you own a public or private property, and will go a long way in helping struggling households this year,' said PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail.

Mr Eric Cheng, executive director of HSR Property Group, calculated that the average household could save 'a few hundred dollars' a year on property tax.

Owners who live in their home pay 4 per cent property tax on the annual value of their property.

A 40 per cent rebate means owners now pay 2.4 per cent tax on their lived-in properties. In the 1998 Budget, the rebate meant home owners paid 3.4 per cent, said Ernst & Young's Ms Wu.

'It's a big relief and will definitely help everyone in this recession,' she said.

The income tax on a property's net annual value (NAV) has also been scrapped, with effect from the 2010 year of assessment.

NAV is the annual value, shown on your property tax bill, of your property in Singapore minus allowable expenses.

The annual value is the gross amount at which the property can be expected to be rented from year to year.

Under current tax rules, if the NAV of an owner-occupied residential property is less than $150,000, it is exempt from income tax. This exemption will not be available to your investment property and any rental income you derive will also be subject to income tax.

After yesterday's changes, those who own higher-value homes, or those who own second homes but do not collect rent for it, no longer have to pay income tax on the NAV of their property.

Ms Wu noted that this benefits higher-income families, as most home owners do not own properties that have a NAV above $150,000.

HSR's Mr Eric felt that while the measures will not have any direct impact on the market, it will give home owners much-welcomed monetary relief in the light of the difficult economic times.

私宅价去年末季跌6.1％ 是10年来最大季度跌幅

Source : 《联合早报》January 24, 2009

金融大海啸波涛汹涌，原本显得已显得脆弱的本地楼市，过去三个月更进一步饱受摧残，私宅、办公楼、零售商店和工业厂房的售价和租金全面下跌，跌幅高达6.5％。展望2009年，分析师预计，未来两个季度的跌幅还会继续加大。

市区重建局（URA）昨天公布完整的第四季和全年房地产数据。我国私宅价格在第四季里下跌6.1％，比预估的5.7％跌幅来得糟，创下10年来的最大季度跌幅，不但将2008年上半年的3.9％涨幅一笔“注销”，也跌穿了2007年第四季的水平。

本地私宅价格自去年第三季下跌2.4％后，又在第四季滑落6.1％，使2008年全年共下跌了4.7％。这是自2003年之后，私宅价格首度呈现跌幅。相比之下，私宅价格在2007年起了31.2％。

经济不景，租户缩紧腰带，私宅出租情况也受牵连，租金在第四季里退低5.3％，全年数据则由于上半年的上涨，整体仍起了2％。

由于12月份的交易量非常单薄，完整数据比预估数据来得差，分析师不感意外，并认为私宅价格会继续下跌高达20％。

ERA房地产公司助理副总裁林东荣指出，过去三个月的私宅价格主要被好几个贱卖（fire-sale）个案拖下水，被脱售的大多为高档私宅，一些单位的售价甚至比估价来得低超过30％。

据了解，位于第9邮区一个未完成单位，由于业主在股市上失利，急需集资偿还债务，上个月就以较估价来得低三成的价格出售。

高纬物业（Cushman & Wakefield）新加坡董事经理韩永利表示，本地楼市和经济走势紧紧相扣，我们正处于金融海啸的暴风眼，局势至少要到下半年以后才会平息，因此楼市还会继续在上半年走下坡，尤其是高档私宅。

戴德梁行研究部高级董事蔡楚芬也认为，私宅上半年的销售情况将持续惨淡，直到银行又恢复放贷，以及买家愿意支付和业主愿意出售的价格差距缩小为止，而受惠于新财政预算案的发展商，也预计会延后推出新项目。

市建局昨天发表的数据显示了楼市去年异常冷淡的情况。发展商在去年第四季共推出了706个单位，较第三季的2244个显著减少，使全年新登场的单位数额仅为6107个，是2007年的44％。私宅的销售量也从1452个单位，减少至407个，导致全年成功找到买家的新单位跌至历史新低，仅有4264个新单位成交。

市场人士透露，过去两个月，新私宅展示厅平日连一个人影都不见，周末最多也只有10人左右前来，类似沙斯爆发时的窘境。

转售市场也难幸免

不单新单位和出租市场受冲击，转售市场也无法幸免。过去三个月转手的单位仅有203个，是第三季的492个的将近六成。

以区域和私宅类别来看，代表高档领域的核心中央地区（CCR）公寓价格在去年第四季下跌了6.5％，代表中档领域的其余中央地区（RCR），价格也下跌了6.2％。这比第三季的2.7％和2.4％跌幅明显加快，带动2008年一整年下跌了5.6％和4.7％。代表大众化领域的中央区以外（OCR）公寓价格则在去年第四季下跌了5.9％，加上第三季的1.5％跌幅，使2008年全年下跌了2.9％。

莱坊（KnightFrank）研究部主管麦俊荣指出，市场原以为大众化私宅将获得中高档私宅‘降级者’以及组屋提升者支撑，但过去三个月见证的价格回跌显示，购买兴趣已消失。

在经济和就业情况持续恶化的情况下，麦俊荣预计，私宅的平均售价和租金将在今年下跌15％至20％。　

世邦魏理仕（CB Richard Ellis）执行董事李晓和则说：“新加坡经济萎缩，市场情绪低迷谨慎，而且又碰上农历新年，第一季的交易量预计将非常惨淡。私宅价格全年将进一步下跌10％至15％。”

供应方面，由于发展商决定延后发展一些项目，2009年至2011年之间完工的单位较第三季预计的3万4716个，减少至3万1004个。

过去半年延后发展并短暂出租的项目包括幸运大厦（Lucky Tower）、景福苑（The Grangeford）、彬珠阁（Pin Tjoe Court)、祥鹤谷(Flamingo Valley)、富丽华大厦（Furama Tower），唯美园（Fairways），淑雅阁(Sophia Court)和林肯苑（Lincoln Lodge）等。

组屋转售价第四季微升1.4％

Source : 《联合早报》January 24, 2009

我国房地产市场在一片阴霾中仍有一丝曙光，组屋转售价格继续一反私宅价格的跌势，在去年第四季还是微升1.4％。

组屋价格 上半年可能失守

然而，受访分析家认为，在私宅、办公楼及工业厂房价格全线下滑的压力下，作为房地产市场最后一道防线的公共住屋也可能抵挡不了跌势，价格或将在今年上半年失守。

建屋发展局昨天公布第四季组屋转售市场数据，转售价指数上升至139.4，全年上升了13.8％。不过，第四季的1.4％增幅远比上一季的4.2％来得低，同时也是七个季度以来的最低涨幅。

除了组屋转售价格继续上升外，组屋溢价中位数（median cash-over-valuation）以及转售交易量都下滑，显示市场已明显降温。

第四季的组屋转售交易量猛跌24％，只有6190间组屋完成交易，比上个季度少了1920宗交易。这使得去年全年的组屋转售交易跌破3万宗，达2万8419宗交易，比2007年少了3％。

作为市场探温计的整体组屋溢价中位数也降低了，第四季的溢价是1万5000元，比上个季度少了4000元，下挫21％。85％的交易以溢价成交，比上个季度少了4％。

经济不景之际，大型组屋的买气也大不如前，无论是转售价还是溢价中位数都下滑不少。

二至四房式组屋的转售价中位数都有上升，增幅介于2000元至1万3000元。五房式组屋的转售价则维持在38万元，公寓式组屋则微升3000元至45万8000元。

溢价中位数方面，组屋屋型越大，下滑的幅度也更大。五房式和公寓式组屋的溢价中位数各下滑了6000元，跌幅都超过30％。前者从去年第三季的1万7000元减少至1万1000元，后者则从1万8000元减至1万2000元。

小型组屋也难逃跌势，不过跌幅较小，三房式和四房式的溢价中位数分别下滑4000元和5000元，同样达到第四季的1万5000元。

组屋估价是根据出售组屋的地点、屋龄、面积、设计和同地区转售组屋的售价进行比较后所得出的价格。组屋溢价指的是估价以外的现金数额。中位数指的是数据里头的中间数字，即一半的数字比中位数高，一半的数字比中位数低。

受访分析师认为，组屋转售市场将受到经济不景和私宅价格下挫的拖累，价格可能在今年上半年下滑，不过估计跌幅不如私宅显著。

Orange Tee执行董事陈道俊估计，组屋转售价可能在今年持平，即使有所下跌，幅度也会低于5％。

ERA助理副总裁林东荣也同意，转售价格可能在今年上半年下滑。“要是复苏的时间更长，转售价格可能在下半年持平后进一步滑落。”

市场情绪转弱 买家变得更谨慎

谈及组屋转售交易量下滑的原因，林东荣认为，市场情绪转弱使得买家变得更谨慎，在购屋前会三思。另一个原因可能是组屋的供应增加，当局去年推出约7000多间预购组屋（BTO），一些不急于购屋的公众可能宁可购买这些新组屋，而不是转售组屋。

莱坊研究部主管麦俊荣指出，交易量的下滑显示一些买家的购买力已减弱，转售价可能会在今年退低。

“在不确定时期，组屋是较为安全的住屋选择，因此这个市场的表现在接下来几个月将保持稳定。”

尽管经济不景气，博纳集团总裁伊斯迈还是认为，今年全年的组屋转售价会增加，因为组屋仍是供不应求。

新组屋方面，当局打算在今年上半年推出3000间预购组屋，近一半是小型公寓及二三房式组屋。大部分的新组屋将位于榜鹅新镇。

建屋局在去年第四季批准约3690个出租组屋的申请，使得全年批准的申请达到2万2200个，比2007年多了20％。去年第四季的组屋租金保持平稳，只有二房式的租金中位数上升了100元。