Source : 《联合早报》February 16, 2009
最近忙着看房的小卞有些郁闷。
他在受访时称，上海市区并不缺房，但大部分开发商都捂着不卖，造成了人为的“供不应求”。据他观察，在上海闸北、杨浦一带，这个时候推出房源的不过四五家开发商，而且各有各的销售策略，结果因为房源有限，房价不但没有降，反而急需买房的人要排队。他颇有些无奈地说，“只能等到年底再说了。”
今年年底或明年年初，这是大多数刚性购房者的时间底线。在他们看来，有价无市的滞胀状态短期内不会结束。
据易居中国统计显示，春节后一周由于众多新盘不敢上市，当周竟无一商品住宅房源上市。而在元宵档期，除绿地集团等少数房企之外，大多数开发商都采取了保守的销售策略。对于目前这种僵局，上海社科院城市与房地产中心的顾建发教授认为很正常。他说，今年楼市已进入萧条期，成交量肯定不强。
出现滞胀局面
住美投资咨询公司执行董事张健也认为，出现这种滞胀局面，一方面是房地产周期进入下降通道的正常现象，目前的上海楼市肯定已经进入衰退期。另一方面，对政府来说，“它能出的牌也是越来越少了”。
上海市委书记俞正声在春节前参加上海市人代会审议时曾说：“房价不能高，不能再涨了”，这和他之前“不要怕经济指标不好看，上海未来没有拯救房市的打算”的说法是一致的。
而在此前，中国住房与城乡建设部部长姜伟新也明确表示，今后地方政府不得再越权救市。看来，政府的思路很清晰，即希望开发商顺应市场变化，主动降价以求与政府一起帮助楼市回暖。
但是按张健的分析，开发商的心态并没有摆正，他们仍然还在留恋2003-2008年间的暴利收益。去年，除了万科象征性地降价促销之外，几乎没有一家大型房企肯拿出哪怕5%或10%的让利。
据报道，2009年1月上海市商品住宅成交面积为48万平方米，成交量相比去年12月出现明显下跌，跌幅为43.53%；但1月全市商品房成交均价为人民币（下同）1万3974元（2740新元）/平方米，相比去年12月上涨了15.78%。
中国房地产指数系统副主任、中国指数研究院（华东）副院长陈晟表示，当前关于楼市有两个关键问题：一是什么样的价格消费者才能接受？二是楼市成交量维持在何种水平，才不会对宏观经济、投资、就业等产生负面影响？对于开发商而言，是逐步降价效果好，还是一步到位刺激效果明显？目前，各方都处在一个观望、试探和相互角力的状态。
最近，包括上海在内的长三角地区出现了打折促销趋势，楼市成交量有了明显回升。这次还是万科带头，于1月28日到2月9日对上海几乎所有在售项目推出让利促销活动，此举也带动了绿地、合生、保利等开发商加入促销队伍。
市场行情显示，真实的降价促销能起到积极作用，每次价格下调都能换来可观的销量。位于上海闸北区的“慧芝湖花园二期”，开发商从去年12月底推出８折的价格优惠，每平方米均价从2万2000元降至1万7600元。上海网上房地产统计显示，这一楼盘１月份签约就达291套，首批推出的400多套房源几乎售空。
专家认为，上海楼市在此基础上降价一两成，将是比较理想的。
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Residential Rentals Set To Slide Further As Companies Cut Costs
Source : Channel NewsAsia, 16 February 2009
Market watchers expect private home rentals in Singapore to slide a further 5 per cent in the first quarter of this year.
That is partly due to falling numbers of expatriate staff based in the city state and lower housing budgets allocated to them.
Singapore plays home to many foreigners working here. But the numbers could fall as firms cut costs to cope with the global recession.
Real estate agency ERA told Channel NewsAsia that its corporate clients have been affected by the downturn.
Eugene Lim, associate director of ERA Asia Pacific, said: "... about 20 per cent of the corporate leases that we have are actually looking for some replacement tenants, because these rentals were signed last year and now that the expats are leaving, they are still locked in the tenancy period."
There are worries that the movement of staff out of Singapore could destablise the rental market.
Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank's director for consultancy & research, said: "If there is a huge outflow of expatriate tenants and at the same time in the next few years... the number of private condominiums that are going to be completed would also increase... if we have a very sharp decrease in demand over a very short span of time, this could actually disrupt the market quite drastically."
Observers say some expatriates are also moving out of more expensive apartments, as their companies slash housing budgets.
Market players project that some 10,000 units of private apartments will be completed this year. Of these, 3,000 units could be put up for rent. And with demand softening, they expect rentals to fall by 10 to 20 per cent for 2009.
Frail market sentiments affected the private residential rental market, which saw a 5.3 per cent drop in rentals in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Still, observers say recent rule changes that allow the renting out of unsold units will help to improve the developers' cashflow.
ERA Asia Pacific's Eugene Lim said: "It can also be packaged as an investment unit, where you can sell it with an existing tenancy. There are always ready buyers for this kind of unit where they do not want the hassle of finding a tenant when it's already tenanted.
"So if it is packaged very effectively, viz-a-viz the rent versus the price, then you get an attractive rental return, then it makes the unit marketable."
Despite falling rentals, market watchers are hoping to see a recovery in the private residential rental market as early as the second half of this year. - CNA/ir
Market watchers expect private home rentals in Singapore to slide a further 5 per cent in the first quarter of this year.
That is partly due to falling numbers of expatriate staff based in the city state and lower housing budgets allocated to them. Singapore plays home to many foreigners working here. But the numbers could fall as firms cut costs to cope with the global recession.
Real estate agency ERA told Channel NewsAsia that its corporate clients have been affected by the downturn.
Eugene Lim, associate director of ERA Asia Pacific, said: "... about 20 per cent of the corporate leases that we have are actually looking for some replacement tenants, because these rentals were signed last year and now that the expats are leaving, they are still locked in the tenancy period."
There are worries that the movement of staff out of Singapore could destablise the rental market.
Nicholas Mak, Knight Frank's director for consultancy & research, said: "If there is a huge outflow of expatriate tenants and at the same time in the next few years... the number of private condominiums that are going to be completed would also increase... if we have a very sharp decrease in demand over a very short span of time, this could actually disrupt the market quite drastically."
Observers say some expatriates are also moving out of more expensive apartments, as their companies slash housing budgets.
Market players project that some 10,000 units of private apartments will be completed this year. Of these, 3,000 units could be put up for rent. And with demand softening, they expect rentals to fall by 10 to 20 per cent for 2009.
Frail market sentiments affected the private residential rental market, which saw a 5.3 per cent drop in rentals in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Still, observers say recent rule changes that allow the renting out of unsold units will help to improve the developers' cashflow.
ERA Asia Pacific's Eugene Lim said: "It can also be packaged as an investment unit, where you can sell it with an existing tenancy. There are always ready buyers for this kind of unit where they do not want the hassle of finding a tenant when it's already tenanted.
"So if it is packaged very effectively, viz-a-viz the rent versus the price, then you get an attractive rental return, then it makes the unit marketable."
Despite falling rentals, market watchers are hoping to see a recovery in the private residential rental market as early as the second half of this year. - CNA/ir
Home Sales At New Low
Source : The Straits Times, Feb 16, 2009
JANUARY was another quiet month for sales of new private homes.
Developers sold only 107 units of new private homes last month, down from 131 units in December, according to data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority. -- PHOTO: THE NEW PAPER
Data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Monday showed that developers
sold only 107 units of new homes last month, down from 131 units in December.
The figure is the lowest since monthly data was made public in June 2007. The second lowest monthly sales data was registered last October, when 118 units were sold.
In January, developers launched 204 new private homes for sale, up from 157 units last December.
There were only a few new launches in January.
One of them - Nova 88 - launched 40 units and sold 16 units at a median price of $947 per square foot, making it the top-selling project last month.
JANUARY was another quiet month for sales of new private homes.
Developers sold only 107 units of new private homes last month, down from 131 units in December, according to data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority. -- PHOTO: THE NEW PAPERData released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Monday showed that developers
sold only 107 units of new homes last month, down from 131 units in December.
The figure is the lowest since monthly data was made public in June 2007. The second lowest monthly sales data was registered last October, when 118 units were sold.
In January, developers launched 204 new private homes for sale, up from 157 units last December.
There were only a few new launches in January.
One of them - Nova 88 - launched 40 units and sold 16 units at a median price of $947 per square foot, making it the top-selling project last month.
Private Home Sales Down In January But More Units Launched
Source : Channel NewsAsia, 16 February 2009
Private home sales further slowed in January, according to the latest Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) figures. Some 107 deals were completed last month, compared to 131 in December.
Property agents said this was the lowest level recorded in the last two years - even lower than last October when global stock markets slumped.
Even so, developers placed more projects on the market, with 204 units released in January. This was slightly higher than the 157 private homes released a month earlier, which had been the lowest level since June 2007.
Despite these gloomy numbers, real estate agency Propnex Realty expects a brighter February. The firm said this is because there has been good take-up from some recent launches this month.
For instance, the new developments Alexis and Caspian had enjoyed strong take-up with over 750 units sold.
CEO of PropNex Realty, Mohamed Ismail, said: "February has been a good month and is likely to post a record number of transactions, far exceeding the peak of last year - close to 800 over units." This will be about eight times the number sold in January.
According to property consultant Colliers, potential buyers would have been waiting for the Budget announcement before making any purchase, and were also occupied with preparing for the Lunar New Year.
But while sales were seen picking up, analysts said one trend would likely persist throughout the year.
Director of consultancy and research at Knight Frank, Nicholas Mak, said: "Most units launched and sold by developers last month were in the suburban areas. Launch and sales activities by developers in the prime district almost came to a halt. Less than 10 units were transacted."
Mohamed Ismail said: "The appetite for many consumers today is when the property price, the overall quantum is less than S$800,000. There are many people willing to buy.
"Not only from the perspective of consumers, even financial institutions and the banks are very comfortable to lend to people for property that are below a million because the risk and spread for the bank is so much better."
Thus analysts expect most upcoming launches to fall under this category. They said developers may ride the new wave of sales and launch more units in the second half of February.
They said as many as 1,000 units may be launched next month, a level not seen since July 2008.
And to support sales, analysts said that going forward, developers are likely to work with banks on financing schemes. For example, two recent developments launched - Alexis and Caspian - have interest-absorption schemes. - CNA/yt
Private home sales further slowed in January, according to the latest Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) figures. Some 107 deals were completed last month, compared to 131 in December.
Property agents said this was the lowest level recorded in the last two years - even lower than last October when global stock markets slumped. Even so, developers placed more projects on the market, with 204 units released in January. This was slightly higher than the 157 private homes released a month earlier, which had been the lowest level since June 2007.
Despite these gloomy numbers, real estate agency Propnex Realty expects a brighter February. The firm said this is because there has been good take-up from some recent launches this month.
For instance, the new developments Alexis and Caspian had enjoyed strong take-up with over 750 units sold.
CEO of PropNex Realty, Mohamed Ismail, said: "February has been a good month and is likely to post a record number of transactions, far exceeding the peak of last year - close to 800 over units." This will be about eight times the number sold in January.
According to property consultant Colliers, potential buyers would have been waiting for the Budget announcement before making any purchase, and were also occupied with preparing for the Lunar New Year.
But while sales were seen picking up, analysts said one trend would likely persist throughout the year.
Director of consultancy and research at Knight Frank, Nicholas Mak, said: "Most units launched and sold by developers last month were in the suburban areas. Launch and sales activities by developers in the prime district almost came to a halt. Less than 10 units were transacted."
Mohamed Ismail said: "The appetite for many consumers today is when the property price, the overall quantum is less than S$800,000. There are many people willing to buy.
"Not only from the perspective of consumers, even financial institutions and the banks are very comfortable to lend to people for property that are below a million because the risk and spread for the bank is so much better."
Thus analysts expect most upcoming launches to fall under this category. They said developers may ride the new wave of sales and launch more units in the second half of February.
They said as many as 1,000 units may be launched next month, a level not seen since July 2008.
And to support sales, analysts said that going forward, developers are likely to work with banks on financing schemes. For example, two recent developments launched - Alexis and Caspian - have interest-absorption schemes. - CNA/yt
Condos Still Hot Property
Source : The Electric New Paper, February 16, 2009
In the face of the economic crunch...
DESPITE the recession, demand for condominiums is still high, going by two recent launches.
At Caspian, next to Lakeside MRT station in Jurong, condo units were selling fast.
Within the first two hours of the public launch yesterday, 38 of the 712 units there were sold.
At 8am, there were already six couples queuing outside the showroom.
When The New Paper on Sunday visited the show flat at 4pm, it was so crowded, it was difficult to move around. Visitors had streamed in from 9.30am.
At another development, Alexis on Alexandra Road, at least half the 293 units were sold during preview sales which started on Thursday. Prices range from $850 per square foot (psf) to $1,100 psf.
Despite the recession, Mr Cheang Kok Kheong, chief operating officer of development and property at Frasers Centrepoint, the developer of Caspian, expects demand for condominiums to increase.
He said: 'Financial difficulties would be most felt by those in the upper echelons of society, who would have investments worldwide. This is why the high-end property market in Singapore has been hit very hard.
'However, many HDB upgraders are less exposed, and would still be interested in buying property now.'
An estimated 2,400 people visited the show flat during the first day of its public launch yesterday, most of them HDB upgraders, and, of the 550 units that have been released, 430 have been sold.
Although the launch of the 99-year-lease condominium came as property prices seemed to be heading south, Mr Cheang said the demand wasn't unexpected.
Based on surveys among residents in Jurong, Frasers Centrepoint had found that there was pent-up demand for condominiums in the area, he explained. 'People would buy a condominium here if the price was right.'
More affordable for HDB upgraders
Mr Cheang said they had catered to that demand by making some units 'more affordable for HDB upgraders'.
During preview sales held last week, all 350 units released were sold, at an average of $580 psf.
Yesterday, some three bedroom units were selling between $700,000 and $800,000, around $620 psf.
Other reasons he cited for the launch's success were the proximity of the condominium to the MRT and the development of the Jurong Lake District.
With Jurong being touted as the second largest commercial space outside of the central business district, with hotels and a new science park, Mr Cheang estimates some 60,000 jobs will be created in the area.
He said: 'People who work in the area may want to establish their homes here as well. When we bought the piece of land, we saw the potential of the Lakeside area. The Chinese and Japanese gardens will be refurbished, and this area is a green lung - an asset that's rare in Singapore.'
Mr Cheang said that although the area was earmarked for several new developments, 80 per cent of it is still an 'attractive green space'.
Mr Yip, 45, an engineer who had visited the showroom with his wife and daughter, said: 'It's an interesting project. From some of the units, you can even see the Jurong lake. I'm an HDB upgrader, and I find the price very reasonable.'
Design director Chin Ser Jong, 45, also liked the design and quality of the units, adding that it was 'rare' for condominiums targeted at HDB upgraders to have bathrooms with marble tiles.
In the face of the economic crunch...
DESPITE the recession, demand for condominiums is still high, going by two recent launches.
At Caspian, next to Lakeside MRT station in Jurong, condo units were selling fast.
Within the first two hours of the public launch yesterday, 38 of the 712 units there were sold.
At 8am, there were already six couples queuing outside the showroom.
When The New Paper on Sunday visited the show flat at 4pm, it was so crowded, it was difficult to move around. Visitors had streamed in from 9.30am.
At another development, Alexis on Alexandra Road, at least half the 293 units were sold during preview sales which started on Thursday. Prices range from $850 per square foot (psf) to $1,100 psf.
Despite the recession, Mr Cheang Kok Kheong, chief operating officer of development and property at Frasers Centrepoint, the developer of Caspian, expects demand for condominiums to increase.
He said: 'Financial difficulties would be most felt by those in the upper echelons of society, who would have investments worldwide. This is why the high-end property market in Singapore has been hit very hard.
'However, many HDB upgraders are less exposed, and would still be interested in buying property now.'
An estimated 2,400 people visited the show flat during the first day of its public launch yesterday, most of them HDB upgraders, and, of the 550 units that have been released, 430 have been sold.
Although the launch of the 99-year-lease condominium came as property prices seemed to be heading south, Mr Cheang said the demand wasn't unexpected.
Based on surveys among residents in Jurong, Frasers Centrepoint had found that there was pent-up demand for condominiums in the area, he explained. 'People would buy a condominium here if the price was right.'
More affordable for HDB upgraders
Mr Cheang said they had catered to that demand by making some units 'more affordable for HDB upgraders'.
During preview sales held last week, all 350 units released were sold, at an average of $580 psf.
Yesterday, some three bedroom units were selling between $700,000 and $800,000, around $620 psf.
Other reasons he cited for the launch's success were the proximity of the condominium to the MRT and the development of the Jurong Lake District.
With Jurong being touted as the second largest commercial space outside of the central business district, with hotels and a new science park, Mr Cheang estimates some 60,000 jobs will be created in the area.
He said: 'People who work in the area may want to establish their homes here as well. When we bought the piece of land, we saw the potential of the Lakeside area. The Chinese and Japanese gardens will be refurbished, and this area is a green lung - an asset that's rare in Singapore.'
Mr Cheang said that although the area was earmarked for several new developments, 80 per cent of it is still an 'attractive green space'.
Mr Yip, 45, an engineer who had visited the showroom with his wife and daughter, said: 'It's an interesting project. From some of the units, you can even see the Jurong lake. I'm an HDB upgrader, and I find the price very reasonable.'
Design director Chin Ser Jong, 45, also liked the design and quality of the units, adding that it was 'rare' for condominiums targeted at HDB upgraders to have bathrooms with marble tiles.
Buoyant Property Launches Defy Poor Economy
Source : The Business Times, February 16, 2009
New developments Caspian and Alexis report brisk sales, add buzz to market
Frasers Centrepoint Ltd (FCL) has delivered much needed positive news by reporting that its 712-unit Caspian condominium near Jurong Lake is now 65 per cent sold with 460 units snapped up to date.
Crowd puller: Alexis, a freehold development marketed by Huttons Asia at around $1,000 psf, is a 'unique product' with small units, says PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail -- ARTHUR LEE
Over at Alexandra, the 293-unit Alexis @ Alexandra by joint venture partners Yi Kai Group and Fission Group is said to be fully sold.
Both developments were launched this month and together, total sales of 753 units have already topped new developer sales for the whole quarter of Q1 2008.
The demand for these two developments have taken many by surprise.
Mohamed Ismail, chief executive of PropNex, which is also the marketing agent for the 99-year leasehold Caspian, said that the sales target had initially been only 250 units for its first phase.
However, after these were sold out quickly at an average price of $580 psf, more units were released at the higher price of $600 psf.
It is understood that FCL will continue selling units as long as there are buyers and that it is comfortable with the pace of sales.
Giving his take on the Caspian's success, Mr Ismail said: 'The strategy in a down market is to look at the size of the units, reach out to buyers in the same area, and keep prices low.'
Alexis, a freehold development marketed by Huttons Asia was more expensive at around $1,000 psf. However, Mr Ismail noted that Alexis is a 'unique product' with small units. He added: 'It doesn't really matter what the per square foot price is these days. If the quantum is below $1 million, there will be many takers.'
While these sales figures are encouraging, Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han said that the demand could be very 'project specific' with pent-up demand quickly satisfied.
A case in point could be City Developments Ltd's (CDL) 724-unit Livia condominium project in Pasir Ris. Livia was launched in July last year and 338 units have been sold as at end December at an average price of $650 psf. Over the weekend, CDL launched 30 units at an average of $620 per sq ft but the atmosphere at the showflat is said to be relatively subdued.
Still, the launch of Caspian and Alexis has added some buzz to an otherwise quiet market.
Some developers have noted that there are buyers waiting to move.
And Teo Hong Lim, chief executive of Roxy-Pacific, the parent company of Roxy Homes, has noticed that the sale of a few units can trigger a rash of buying because those waiting on the sidelines do not want to 'miss the boat'.
Mr Teo says that Roxy Homes sees about 70-100 visitors at its showflats a day.
East Coast Properties managing director Alvin Ng says he has also noticed an increase in visitors at its showflats with sales also picking up. Asked what is driving this in light of the poor economy, Mr Ng said: 'It's really anyone's guess.'
New developments Caspian and Alexis report brisk sales, add buzz to market
Frasers Centrepoint Ltd (FCL) has delivered much needed positive news by reporting that its 712-unit Caspian condominium near Jurong Lake is now 65 per cent sold with 460 units snapped up to date.
Crowd puller: Alexis, a freehold development marketed by Huttons Asia at around $1,000 psf, is a 'unique product' with small units, says PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail -- ARTHUR LEEOver at Alexandra, the 293-unit Alexis @ Alexandra by joint venture partners Yi Kai Group and Fission Group is said to be fully sold.
Both developments were launched this month and together, total sales of 753 units have already topped new developer sales for the whole quarter of Q1 2008.
The demand for these two developments have taken many by surprise.
Mohamed Ismail, chief executive of PropNex, which is also the marketing agent for the 99-year leasehold Caspian, said that the sales target had initially been only 250 units for its first phase.
However, after these were sold out quickly at an average price of $580 psf, more units were released at the higher price of $600 psf.
It is understood that FCL will continue selling units as long as there are buyers and that it is comfortable with the pace of sales.
Giving his take on the Caspian's success, Mr Ismail said: 'The strategy in a down market is to look at the size of the units, reach out to buyers in the same area, and keep prices low.'
Alexis, a freehold development marketed by Huttons Asia was more expensive at around $1,000 psf. However, Mr Ismail noted that Alexis is a 'unique product' with small units. He added: 'It doesn't really matter what the per square foot price is these days. If the quantum is below $1 million, there will be many takers.'
While these sales figures are encouraging, Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han said that the demand could be very 'project specific' with pent-up demand quickly satisfied.
A case in point could be City Developments Ltd's (CDL) 724-unit Livia condominium project in Pasir Ris. Livia was launched in July last year and 338 units have been sold as at end December at an average price of $650 psf. Over the weekend, CDL launched 30 units at an average of $620 per sq ft but the atmosphere at the showflat is said to be relatively subdued.
Still, the launch of Caspian and Alexis has added some buzz to an otherwise quiet market.
Some developers have noted that there are buyers waiting to move.
And Teo Hong Lim, chief executive of Roxy-Pacific, the parent company of Roxy Homes, has noticed that the sale of a few units can trigger a rash of buying because those waiting on the sidelines do not want to 'miss the boat'.
Mr Teo says that Roxy Homes sees about 70-100 visitors at its showflats a day.
East Coast Properties managing director Alvin Ng says he has also noticed an increase in visitors at its showflats with sales also picking up. Asked what is driving this in light of the poor economy, Mr Ng said: 'It's really anyone's guess.'
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