Source : 《联合早报》Jan 28, 2008
本地银行同业拆息率创新低，房屋贷款利率预料也将跟着下调，经济师认为现在是为房屋贷款进行再融资的好时机。
三个月新加坡银行同业拆息率，上个星期五从去年的2.5％左右跌到1.5％，创下3年来的新低点。据《商业时报》报道，市场预料房贷利率也会跟着调低。
银行同业拆息率是指银行同业之间的短期资金借贷利率，间接影响银行给出的房屋贷款利率、企业贷款利率和存户的存款利率。
经济师也预计，美国的利率继续下滑，将导致本地的银行同业拆息率在今年中再创新低。
瑞安联财务私人有限公司总裁吴良蒲接受《新明日报》访问时表示，本地银行预计不会在短期内，调低房屋贷款利率。
吴良蒲说：“以去年的走势看来，房地产市场增长强劲，银行最快应该会在第一季后，才作出调整。”
转换贷款前的注意事项
陶朱公财务管理咨询公司顾问戴文雪提醒公众，再融资前，一定要仔细计算成本。
戴文雪说：“多数的情况下，公众转换原来的换贷款配套，必须支付一笔庞大的手续费或违约罚金。”
如果公众在计算这笔费用后发现，手续费及罚款金额高过能节省的款项，就算新配套利率在低，公众也不应该转换。
Monday, January 28, 2008
Voices : Help Young Couples: Cut CPF Cap For Housing
Source : The Straits Times, Jan 28, 2008
I WONDER how many Singaporeans are aware they cannot use their CPF savings to pay their housing loan fully.
I did not realise this until I received a letter from the authorities earlier this month which said we could not withdraw more CPF funds to pay for our flat.
Thus, the balance had to be serviced in cash even though we still make monthly CPF contributions.
The reason given by the CPF Board is as follows (quoted from a letter sent to us after repeated appeals to the CPF Board via our MP):
'The primary objective of CPF is to help members save for old age. We must balance the home ownership objective with the retirement objective. This is done by capping the withdrawal of CPF for a property up to the Valuation Limit (VL), that is the purchase price of the property. Once members have withdrawn their CPF up to the VL, they can only withdraw further CPF if they can set aside Minimum Sum cash component in their CPF Special and Ordinary accounts, this amounts to $120,000.'
Can an exception be made for young couples like us who have many other commitments - young children, aged retired parents - and as a result are not cash-rich at present.
What is more, we have many more years to save towards retirement.
Can we therefore be allowed to service our housing loan fully via CPF, given that this is our first flat?
Lim Keng Chiew
I WONDER how many Singaporeans are aware they cannot use their CPF savings to pay their housing loan fully.
I did not realise this until I received a letter from the authorities earlier this month which said we could not withdraw more CPF funds to pay for our flat.
Thus, the balance had to be serviced in cash even though we still make monthly CPF contributions.
The reason given by the CPF Board is as follows (quoted from a letter sent to us after repeated appeals to the CPF Board via our MP):
'The primary objective of CPF is to help members save for old age. We must balance the home ownership objective with the retirement objective. This is done by capping the withdrawal of CPF for a property up to the Valuation Limit (VL), that is the purchase price of the property. Once members have withdrawn their CPF up to the VL, they can only withdraw further CPF if they can set aside Minimum Sum cash component in their CPF Special and Ordinary accounts, this amounts to $120,000.'
Can an exception be made for young couples like us who have many other commitments - young children, aged retired parents - and as a result are not cash-rich at present.
What is more, we have many more years to save towards retirement.
Can we therefore be allowed to service our housing loan fully via CPF, given that this is our first flat?
Lim Keng Chiew
We're Down But Not Out
Source : The Electric New Paper, January 28, 2008
OTHER MATURE INVESTORS:
EVEN during his retirement, he is making quite a substantial amount of money by dabbling in property.
At one stage last year, Richard, a retired businessman in his 60s, owned seven posh condominium units in prime districts.
As property prices shot up, he sold off half of his property assets and made a profit of close to $1 million within six months.
He then channelled his windfall into shares and bought a new property, hoping to make more quick profits.
Unfortunately for him, the property market started to slow down after he put down his cheque of $50,000 to secure a brand new three-bedroom apartment in the west.
Said Richard, who wants to keep a low profile and spoke on condition of anonymity: 'I was hoping to make a quick profit by selling the property within a few months. Many people were queuing up for a unit and thought I could sell it to those who didn't manage to get one.'
SLOWING DOWN
But before Richard could start marketing his new apartment, the property market started to slow down.
He said: 'The property market is interlinked with the stock market. When it's hot, people rush in to buy, all wanting a share of the pie.
'But once something looks not quite right, these people also rush to sell off whatever they have. In the case of property, they stop buying.
'These people see that share prices are dropping, so they think that property prices will also drop.'
Afraid that he would suffer bigger losses later, Richard decided to withdraw from the purchase of the new condominium unit and forfeit 25 per cent of his deposit.
That came to about $12,500.
He still owns four freehold apartments.
NO RUSH
Another retiree, who wanted to be known only as Mr Wong, does not feel the need to rush to sell off his properties.
The 60-year-old, who invested mostly in apartments in the east, said: 'I believe that Singapore will continue to experience steady growth. We have our integrated resorts and F1 race to look forward to.
'Also we are well-prepared this time, even if recession is to hit the US.'
Mr Wong also suffered losses in the stock market recently, but he declined to reveal his losses.
He said: 'I am a conservative investor who does not gamble with money that I don't already have. So I am still fine.'
OTHER MATURE INVESTORS:
EVEN during his retirement, he is making quite a substantial amount of money by dabbling in property.
At one stage last year, Richard, a retired businessman in his 60s, owned seven posh condominium units in prime districts.
As property prices shot up, he sold off half of his property assets and made a profit of close to $1 million within six months.
He then channelled his windfall into shares and bought a new property, hoping to make more quick profits.
Unfortunately for him, the property market started to slow down after he put down his cheque of $50,000 to secure a brand new three-bedroom apartment in the west.
Said Richard, who wants to keep a low profile and spoke on condition of anonymity: 'I was hoping to make a quick profit by selling the property within a few months. Many people were queuing up for a unit and thought I could sell it to those who didn't manage to get one.'
SLOWING DOWN
But before Richard could start marketing his new apartment, the property market started to slow down.
He said: 'The property market is interlinked with the stock market. When it's hot, people rush in to buy, all wanting a share of the pie.
'But once something looks not quite right, these people also rush to sell off whatever they have. In the case of property, they stop buying.
'These people see that share prices are dropping, so they think that property prices will also drop.'
Afraid that he would suffer bigger losses later, Richard decided to withdraw from the purchase of the new condominium unit and forfeit 25 per cent of his deposit.
That came to about $12,500.
He still owns four freehold apartments.
NO RUSH
Another retiree, who wanted to be known only as Mr Wong, does not feel the need to rush to sell off his properties.
The 60-year-old, who invested mostly in apartments in the east, said: 'I believe that Singapore will continue to experience steady growth. We have our integrated resorts and F1 race to look forward to.
'Also we are well-prepared this time, even if recession is to hit the US.'
Mr Wong also suffered losses in the stock market recently, but he declined to reveal his losses.
He said: 'I am a conservative investor who does not gamble with money that I don't already have. So I am still fine.'
Property's Still Hot In S'pore
Source : The Electric New Paper, January 28, 2008
REAL ESTATE VETERAN SAYS OF COOLING MARKET:
Her view: Upgraders and enbloc sales will keep demand up
WHILE most people her age would be blissfully retired, Madam Marlena Chong, a 70-year-old grandmother, is still working, aggressively.
She's no newbie: Madam Marlena Chong has been an active player on the property market for more than 40 years. - Picture: Kelvin Chng
And her work involves millions of dollars.
She is an active player in Singapore's property market, as she has been since she was in her 20s.
One of her friends even calls her 'Queen of Leedon Park' for owning four bungalows there.
They occupy an area of around 100,000 sq ft.
She also has investments in Australia and Malaysia, and is developing a condominium project in China.
Having invested in property locally and regionally for more than 40 years, Madam Chong has seen her share of people going bankrupt over the last three property cycles.
BRIGHT OUTLOOK
Despite the gloom cast by threats of recession in the US and the battering that Asian stock markets took over the last week, Madam Chong retains her 'bright outlook for the Singapore property market'.
Madam Chong, who recently bought a freehold luxury apartment at Scotts Square for $3 million, said: 'The market has softened, but I think it's still holding up. With many en-bloc sales and HDB upgraders, there is still a demand for private housing in the market.
'The prices of freehold landed properties are still far below those in other global cities like London, Hong Kong and New York. People will soon realise that land is still under-valued and will buy the freehold land,' she added, observing how landed property in Sentosa has shot up from $200 to $1,800 per square foot.
Madam Chong's interest in property was first stimulated through discussions with her father, who was in the hotel business.
But Madam Chong, who is a very private person, declined to reveal more details about her family.
She started out first with a few commercial units at People's Park in the 1960s.
In 1972, she bought an apartment at Beverly Mai, a Tomlinson Road condominium, and slowly expanded the number of properties to her name over the years.
Madam Chong declined to reveal the number of properties she and her family own, and also declined to reveal how much she has earned in the property market.
She bought a plot of land with an area of 1hectare for $16 million some years ago.
The land is now worth a cool $40 million.
UNCANNY ABILITY
Talking about her uncanny ability to make predictions about where the property market is headed, Madam Chong said: 'I can feel it.'
In 2004, she asked her friends to buy property when prices were at their lowest.
'But many of them were reluctant to, because property prices had been declining since 1996.
'The mood was still not there and the market was still quiet so they were still unsure,' she said.
Now, Madam's Chong's friends chip in when she makes investments so that they can get a share of the profits as well.
She said: 'Every high that a property cycle brings with it will be higher than that of the last property cycle. It is a good time to buy freehold land.'
Madam Chong's property agent, MsAnnabelle Khan, describes her client as someone with 'good foresight, careful when she makes decisions'.
Madam Chong has bought three properties through Ms Khan since they got to know each other last September.
Ms Khan said: 'She's not stuck up, and she's always willing to give younger people a chance.
'She's always very happy to help people.'
Ms Khan also described Madam Chong as a 'very compassionate' woman, who, after she knew of Ms Khan's family problems, even offered to visit her family.
REAL ESTATE VETERAN SAYS OF COOLING MARKET:
Her view: Upgraders and enbloc sales will keep demand up
WHILE most people her age would be blissfully retired, Madam Marlena Chong, a 70-year-old grandmother, is still working, aggressively.
She's no newbie: Madam Marlena Chong has been an active player on the property market for more than 40 years. - Picture: Kelvin ChngAnd her work involves millions of dollars.
She is an active player in Singapore's property market, as she has been since she was in her 20s.
One of her friends even calls her 'Queen of Leedon Park' for owning four bungalows there.
They occupy an area of around 100,000 sq ft.
She also has investments in Australia and Malaysia, and is developing a condominium project in China.
Having invested in property locally and regionally for more than 40 years, Madam Chong has seen her share of people going bankrupt over the last three property cycles.
BRIGHT OUTLOOK
Despite the gloom cast by threats of recession in the US and the battering that Asian stock markets took over the last week, Madam Chong retains her 'bright outlook for the Singapore property market'.
Madam Chong, who recently bought a freehold luxury apartment at Scotts Square for $3 million, said: 'The market has softened, but I think it's still holding up. With many en-bloc sales and HDB upgraders, there is still a demand for private housing in the market.
'The prices of freehold landed properties are still far below those in other global cities like London, Hong Kong and New York. People will soon realise that land is still under-valued and will buy the freehold land,' she added, observing how landed property in Sentosa has shot up from $200 to $1,800 per square foot.
Madam Chong's interest in property was first stimulated through discussions with her father, who was in the hotel business.
But Madam Chong, who is a very private person, declined to reveal more details about her family.
She started out first with a few commercial units at People's Park in the 1960s.
In 1972, she bought an apartment at Beverly Mai, a Tomlinson Road condominium, and slowly expanded the number of properties to her name over the years.
Madam Chong declined to reveal the number of properties she and her family own, and also declined to reveal how much she has earned in the property market.
She bought a plot of land with an area of 1hectare for $16 million some years ago.
The land is now worth a cool $40 million.
UNCANNY ABILITY
Talking about her uncanny ability to make predictions about where the property market is headed, Madam Chong said: 'I can feel it.'
In 2004, she asked her friends to buy property when prices were at their lowest.
'But many of them were reluctant to, because property prices had been declining since 1996.
'The mood was still not there and the market was still quiet so they were still unsure,' she said.
Now, Madam's Chong's friends chip in when she makes investments so that they can get a share of the profits as well.
She said: 'Every high that a property cycle brings with it will be higher than that of the last property cycle. It is a good time to buy freehold land.'
Madam Chong's property agent, MsAnnabelle Khan, describes her client as someone with 'good foresight, careful when she makes decisions'.
Madam Chong has bought three properties through Ms Khan since they got to know each other last September.
Ms Khan said: 'She's not stuck up, and she's always willing to give younger people a chance.
'She's always very happy to help people.'
Ms Khan also described Madam Chong as a 'very compassionate' woman, who, after she knew of Ms Khan's family problems, even offered to visit her family.
The Five Days That Shook The Market
Source : The Straits Times, Jan 27, 2008
REMISIER Chew sat numb at his desk, staring at his trading screen in disbelief.
Out to lunch for an hour, he had returned to his office in Raffles Place last Monday to find the local stock market nose-diving in an almost unimaginable tailspin.
His screen was awash in a sea of red, with blue chip stocks such as SingTel and DBS Group Holdings buckling badly under a tremendous selling onslaught.
What started as a trickle of sell orders in the morning had burgeoned several- fold as waves of selling drove the Straits Times Index (STI) down by a sickening 80 points in a matter of minutes.
By the end of the day, the STI had lost 187.1 points to end at 2,917.15, its worst one-day drop since Black Monday in October 1987 - even worse than the aftermath of the Sept 11 attacks. About $36 billion of Singapore share value was wiped out, while globally, the loss was about US$2.4 trillion (S$3.4 trillion).
'It was like the world was coming to an end. I wasn't sure if I should cut my losses or hold my position,' recalls Mr Chew, who declined to give his full name. He saw his paper losses balloon to many thousands of dollars.
IN INDIA: DUMBFOUNDED... Stock brokers reacting as they watch the Bombay Stock Exchange?s listed prices at the premises of a financial consultant in Mumbai on Tuesday. -- AP
For the rest of Monday, and then again on Tuesday, he stood by horrified as a hapless witness to a savaging of local stocks. The same carnage was seen on bourses around the region, such as in Hong Kong, China, Australia, India and Tokyo, and in many other key global markets. Big money was lost with breathtaking speed.
'Some of my remisier friends lost at least half a million dollars during those two days,' Mr Chew added.
OCBC Securities in Church Street was uncharacteristically quiet on Monday and Tuesday, devoid of the regular retirees who typically spend hours hogging the computer terminals at the branch, trading stocks each day.
They had either sold their holdings and ducked for cover, or were just holding on and praying for better days. Tellingly, most of the activity was centred around the cashier, where investors who had borrowed money to buy their shares faced 'margin calls'. This is where they are forced to sell their shares or top up their loans with extra cash - as the value of shares plummeted.
'Some of their faces were green,' said a 60-year-old retiree who wanted to be known only as Mr Lo. 'If anyone tells you they're not affected, they're probably lying. You can't jump into a pool and still be dry.'
IN BRAZIL: AGHAST... Stock traders at the Mercantile & Futures Exchange in Sao Paulo on Tuesday. -- PHOTO: AFP
Another bruised investor, Mr Vincent Tay, 30, regrets not cashing out when the market peaked last November.
'I would've made a tidy profit of $10,000 but I was greedy,' said the businessman who has invested mostly in Singapore-listed China firms such as Synear Food Holdings, China Hongxing and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding.
His stocks are now worth half their original $50,000 value.
In the frantic downward spiral, the margin calls escalated as investors dumped shares. And with no buyers on the horizon, the steep sell-offs got worse and worse. One trader said the frenetic selling was a lethal cocktail of fear and panic.
'There were rumours circulating, such as that about Chinese banks hiding their losses. People didn't care if they were true or not, as they kept throwing shares away,' Mr Chew said.
IN NEW YORK: DISMAYED... A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange steadying himself at a phone post as stocks fell further in a rocky opening on Wednesday. -- AP
Another witness to the nerve-jangling plunges was DBS Asset Management's senior portfolio manager and equities strategist Peter Chiang, who was besieged by phone calls from clients seeking reassurance.
'I never found myself so popular,' said Mr Chiang, adding that a key concern was whether the firm had enough cash on hand to pay investors wanting to redeem battered unit trust holdings.
Still, amid the maelstrom, some seasoned investors stayed calm. Renowned commodities trader Jim Rogers, 65, who moved to Singapore recently, was unflustered as the markets were tanking.
'It didn't take a genius to figure out it was going to happen. Things are going to get worse in a year or two in most financial markets, not just in Singapore. But Singapore is going to be less affected than most financial markets,' said Mr Rogers, who spent the morning at his gym, then ferried his four-year old daughter Happy to school.
But for most in the investment world, explaining the brutal sell-down was no easy matter. Yes, there were worries over a United States recession in the wake of a crisis in the US mortgage market brought about by imprudent lending.
The US, the biggest economy, is a vital export market for Asian markets. If US consumers slow their spending, that means trouble.
But this scenario had been unfolding for months, and there had been no recent dramatic news to explain the sudden slump.
Another remisier, who wanted to be known only as Mr Tan, said that back in 2001, it had been simple enough to explain to clients why markets were hammered after the terrorist attacks. But this time, it was much harder to pinpoint a specific cause.
Searching for an explanation, some traders attributed the sell-down to hedge funds - powerful private investment vehicles with billions of cash at their disposal. These funds were trimming their positions to raise cash to cope with redemption calls over in the US, which was closed for a public holiday on Monday.
Others said US President George W. Bush's stimulus package announced the previous Friday to shore up the ailing US economy was such a disappointment that it triggered Monday's plunge.
Whatever the case, with so much uncertainty in the market, even experienced traders panicked. Said a trader: 'Mid-afternoon (on Monday), when the index fell below the 3,000 support level, many people were hit badly. Institutional traders lost a lot of money.'
Mr Chew, like many of his peers, went home drained and shaken from the day's activity, dreading what Tuesday might bring. Wrung out from the day's drama, many money managers still ploughed on through the night when foreign markets are open.
Mr Julian Sandt, chief executive of fund management firm Orchid Capital, kept watching the news at home, as European markets were well down when they opened in the afternoon. 'I slept but it was less than normal, because you try to follow and watch the situation intently.'
As widely anticipated, Tuesday was no better, as Asian shares dived for a second straight day. 'The mood was so bearish. I was just lying low and staying out of the market, waiting for it to be all over,' Mr Chew said.
Just after lunch, the STI was down 171 points. Some traders were getting anxious, but there were also bargain-hunters who were drawn out by what appeared to be cheap-as-chips prices.
'As value investors, we're driven by the companies' worth and fundamentals. When prices fall, it gives us a chance to buy them,' said Deutsche Asset Management portfolio manager Sam Hanbury, who remained unfazed by the market slump.
Still, there were others who were more hesitant about sinking remaining funds into stocks, preferring a cautious stance.
Fund manager Lion Capital's chief executive Daniel Chan said: 'In terms of valuation levels, the Asian markets were starting to look rather attractive but one needed to be convinced that the Asian growth story won't be seriously derailed if the worst were to happen.'
The STI later trimmed its losses to close only 50 points lower at 2,866.55. The recovery came after late-afternoon rumours - which later turned out to be true - of a US interest rate cut.
The Federal Reserve's dramatic and unusually large 0.75 of a percentage point cut in interest rates after the Asian market closed on Tuesday had a big impact on global markets as stocks started to bounce back - albeit unevenly, and with continuing volatility. The cut means loans to businesses and consumers are cheaper - and this boosts confidence.
While fear certainly overcame markets on Monday and Tuesday, the rate cut after that 'stimulated' Asian markets, noted Mr Elan Cohen, JP Morgan Private Bank's senior portfolio manager.
The roller-coaster rebound during the rest of the week allowed the STI to claw back all of the losses suffered during those two days.
'The speculators have dried up for the moment as people are not so gungho as to go into the market,' Mr Tan said.
He said that he would lie low during this volatile period and stay out of trading shares until there is more clarity about the direction the market will take.
The two-day sell-down was alarming for many inexperienced investors - but those with more experience tended to look at the big picture.
'If you're a trader, you'll buy at these levels, and sell at 10 per cent or 15 per cent higher,' said the chief investment officer of Fortis Private Banking Singapore, Mr Lim Kok Boon.
'If you're overexposed, you'll look at the next two weeks for the bounce of the market to re-adjust your positions. If you're long-term, you'll buy part of the exposure now, and see what happens in the next few months, weighing in economic data and policy response.'
Mr Rogers expects the market to go down further. 'The market likes rate cuts, the market likes the fact that the Federal Reserve is flooding the world with money, but I'm saying it's false hope.'
He said he is 'waiting for a rally, and then sell short more investment banks and more financial institutions'.
Short-selling is when an investor stakes his money on a particular share falling in price. The investor borrows a share (on payment of a borrowing fee), sells it and hopes to be able to buy it back in the future at a cheaper price.
Mr Rogers said the worst is not over. 'Once you have lots of fear, then we're going to start hitting the bottom, but I've not seen much fear yet.'
REMISIER Chew sat numb at his desk, staring at his trading screen in disbelief.
Out to lunch for an hour, he had returned to his office in Raffles Place last Monday to find the local stock market nose-diving in an almost unimaginable tailspin.
His screen was awash in a sea of red, with blue chip stocks such as SingTel and DBS Group Holdings buckling badly under a tremendous selling onslaught.
What started as a trickle of sell orders in the morning had burgeoned several- fold as waves of selling drove the Straits Times Index (STI) down by a sickening 80 points in a matter of minutes.
By the end of the day, the STI had lost 187.1 points to end at 2,917.15, its worst one-day drop since Black Monday in October 1987 - even worse than the aftermath of the Sept 11 attacks. About $36 billion of Singapore share value was wiped out, while globally, the loss was about US$2.4 trillion (S$3.4 trillion).
'It was like the world was coming to an end. I wasn't sure if I should cut my losses or hold my position,' recalls Mr Chew, who declined to give his full name. He saw his paper losses balloon to many thousands of dollars.
IN INDIA: DUMBFOUNDED... Stock brokers reacting as they watch the Bombay Stock Exchange?s listed prices at the premises of a financial consultant in Mumbai on Tuesday. -- APFor the rest of Monday, and then again on Tuesday, he stood by horrified as a hapless witness to a savaging of local stocks. The same carnage was seen on bourses around the region, such as in Hong Kong, China, Australia, India and Tokyo, and in many other key global markets. Big money was lost with breathtaking speed.
'Some of my remisier friends lost at least half a million dollars during those two days,' Mr Chew added.
OCBC Securities in Church Street was uncharacteristically quiet on Monday and Tuesday, devoid of the regular retirees who typically spend hours hogging the computer terminals at the branch, trading stocks each day.
They had either sold their holdings and ducked for cover, or were just holding on and praying for better days. Tellingly, most of the activity was centred around the cashier, where investors who had borrowed money to buy their shares faced 'margin calls'. This is where they are forced to sell their shares or top up their loans with extra cash - as the value of shares plummeted.
'Some of their faces were green,' said a 60-year-old retiree who wanted to be known only as Mr Lo. 'If anyone tells you they're not affected, they're probably lying. You can't jump into a pool and still be dry.'
IN BRAZIL: AGHAST... Stock traders at the Mercantile & Futures Exchange in Sao Paulo on Tuesday. -- PHOTO: AFPAnother bruised investor, Mr Vincent Tay, 30, regrets not cashing out when the market peaked last November.
'I would've made a tidy profit of $10,000 but I was greedy,' said the businessman who has invested mostly in Singapore-listed China firms such as Synear Food Holdings, China Hongxing and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding.
His stocks are now worth half their original $50,000 value.
In the frantic downward spiral, the margin calls escalated as investors dumped shares. And with no buyers on the horizon, the steep sell-offs got worse and worse. One trader said the frenetic selling was a lethal cocktail of fear and panic.
'There were rumours circulating, such as that about Chinese banks hiding their losses. People didn't care if they were true or not, as they kept throwing shares away,' Mr Chew said.
IN NEW YORK: DISMAYED... A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange steadying himself at a phone post as stocks fell further in a rocky opening on Wednesday. -- APAnother witness to the nerve-jangling plunges was DBS Asset Management's senior portfolio manager and equities strategist Peter Chiang, who was besieged by phone calls from clients seeking reassurance.
'I never found myself so popular,' said Mr Chiang, adding that a key concern was whether the firm had enough cash on hand to pay investors wanting to redeem battered unit trust holdings.
Still, amid the maelstrom, some seasoned investors stayed calm. Renowned commodities trader Jim Rogers, 65, who moved to Singapore recently, was unflustered as the markets were tanking.
'It didn't take a genius to figure out it was going to happen. Things are going to get worse in a year or two in most financial markets, not just in Singapore. But Singapore is going to be less affected than most financial markets,' said Mr Rogers, who spent the morning at his gym, then ferried his four-year old daughter Happy to school.
But for most in the investment world, explaining the brutal sell-down was no easy matter. Yes, there were worries over a United States recession in the wake of a crisis in the US mortgage market brought about by imprudent lending.
The US, the biggest economy, is a vital export market for Asian markets. If US consumers slow their spending, that means trouble.
But this scenario had been unfolding for months, and there had been no recent dramatic news to explain the sudden slump.
Another remisier, who wanted to be known only as Mr Tan, said that back in 2001, it had been simple enough to explain to clients why markets were hammered after the terrorist attacks. But this time, it was much harder to pinpoint a specific cause.
Searching for an explanation, some traders attributed the sell-down to hedge funds - powerful private investment vehicles with billions of cash at their disposal. These funds were trimming their positions to raise cash to cope with redemption calls over in the US, which was closed for a public holiday on Monday.
Others said US President George W. Bush's stimulus package announced the previous Friday to shore up the ailing US economy was such a disappointment that it triggered Monday's plunge.
Whatever the case, with so much uncertainty in the market, even experienced traders panicked. Said a trader: 'Mid-afternoon (on Monday), when the index fell below the 3,000 support level, many people were hit badly. Institutional traders lost a lot of money.'
Mr Chew, like many of his peers, went home drained and shaken from the day's activity, dreading what Tuesday might bring. Wrung out from the day's drama, many money managers still ploughed on through the night when foreign markets are open.
Mr Julian Sandt, chief executive of fund management firm Orchid Capital, kept watching the news at home, as European markets were well down when they opened in the afternoon. 'I slept but it was less than normal, because you try to follow and watch the situation intently.'
As widely anticipated, Tuesday was no better, as Asian shares dived for a second straight day. 'The mood was so bearish. I was just lying low and staying out of the market, waiting for it to be all over,' Mr Chew said.
Just after lunch, the STI was down 171 points. Some traders were getting anxious, but there were also bargain-hunters who were drawn out by what appeared to be cheap-as-chips prices.
'As value investors, we're driven by the companies' worth and fundamentals. When prices fall, it gives us a chance to buy them,' said Deutsche Asset Management portfolio manager Sam Hanbury, who remained unfazed by the market slump.
Still, there were others who were more hesitant about sinking remaining funds into stocks, preferring a cautious stance.
Fund manager Lion Capital's chief executive Daniel Chan said: 'In terms of valuation levels, the Asian markets were starting to look rather attractive but one needed to be convinced that the Asian growth story won't be seriously derailed if the worst were to happen.'
The STI later trimmed its losses to close only 50 points lower at 2,866.55. The recovery came after late-afternoon rumours - which later turned out to be true - of a US interest rate cut.
The Federal Reserve's dramatic and unusually large 0.75 of a percentage point cut in interest rates after the Asian market closed on Tuesday had a big impact on global markets as stocks started to bounce back - albeit unevenly, and with continuing volatility. The cut means loans to businesses and consumers are cheaper - and this boosts confidence.
While fear certainly overcame markets on Monday and Tuesday, the rate cut after that 'stimulated' Asian markets, noted Mr Elan Cohen, JP Morgan Private Bank's senior portfolio manager.
The roller-coaster rebound during the rest of the week allowed the STI to claw back all of the losses suffered during those two days.
'The speculators have dried up for the moment as people are not so gungho as to go into the market,' Mr Tan said.
He said that he would lie low during this volatile period and stay out of trading shares until there is more clarity about the direction the market will take.
The two-day sell-down was alarming for many inexperienced investors - but those with more experience tended to look at the big picture.
'If you're a trader, you'll buy at these levels, and sell at 10 per cent or 15 per cent higher,' said the chief investment officer of Fortis Private Banking Singapore, Mr Lim Kok Boon.
'If you're overexposed, you'll look at the next two weeks for the bounce of the market to re-adjust your positions. If you're long-term, you'll buy part of the exposure now, and see what happens in the next few months, weighing in economic data and policy response.'
Mr Rogers expects the market to go down further. 'The market likes rate cuts, the market likes the fact that the Federal Reserve is flooding the world with money, but I'm saying it's false hope.'
He said he is 'waiting for a rally, and then sell short more investment banks and more financial institutions'.
Short-selling is when an investor stakes his money on a particular share falling in price. The investor borrows a share (on payment of a borrowing fee), sells it and hopes to be able to buy it back in the future at a cheaper price.
Mr Rogers said the worst is not over. 'Once you have lots of fear, then we're going to start hitting the bottom, but I've not seen much fear yet.'
SM Goh Confident S'pore Will Hit Growth Forecast
Source : The Straits Times, Jan 27, 2008
He believes robust growth in Asia will keep economy on track this year
DESPITE the credit crunch in the US, Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong is confident that Singapore's economy can meet this year's official forecast of 4.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent growth.
He said on Sunday that it would be possible as a result of 'robust growth in Asia'.
His views echo those of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who said last week that he was confident the Republic would weather the current global market turmoil and do well this year.
Mr Lee cited robust domestic demand in China and India as one factor that would help boost Singapore and others in the region.
Mr Goh, who is chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, also believes that Asian economies like China, India and Vietnam would continue to grow.
'We are not now overly dependent on the United States economy,' he said, adding that he was 'not overly pessimistic, despite the grave uncertainty over the credit crunch'.
He said: 'This is an international financial crisis forced by the sub-prime problem. The stock market has gone up and gone down and the credit squeeze will go on for quite some time.'
But he acknowledged that if the US economy were to go into a recession for a quarter or two, growth elsewhere would be affected.
'On the whole, the real economy should be on track for some growth this year in Singapore,' he said.
Mr Goh, who was speaking to reporters at his Marine Parade constituency where he handed out hongbao and Chinese New Year gifts to 48 needy residents, also welcomed news of rail lines reaching the constituency.
Transport Minister Raymond Lim announced last Friday that two new underground MRT lines would be built by 2020.
One of these lines, running from Changi to Marina Bay via Marine Parade would allow commuters to travel from Marine Parade to Marina Bay in 20 minutes.
Said Mr Goh: 'I've not got the details yet and I don't know where the station is, but so long as the line passes through or near Marine Parade, that's good news for the residents because then they can go to anywhere in Singapore quite conveniently.'
He also said the Transport Ministry's plans to overhaul land transport was 'good news'.
He added: 'The ministry is putting emphasis on the interest of the public...But the difficult part is the vehicle population growth.
'You can see year after year, there are more and more cars on the road and coming to Marine Parade now takes a longer time.'
He believes robust growth in Asia will keep economy on track this year
DESPITE the credit crunch in the US, Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong is confident that Singapore's economy can meet this year's official forecast of 4.5 per cent to 6.5 per cent growth.
He said on Sunday that it would be possible as a result of 'robust growth in Asia'.His views echo those of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who said last week that he was confident the Republic would weather the current global market turmoil and do well this year.
Mr Lee cited robust domestic demand in China and India as one factor that would help boost Singapore and others in the region.
Mr Goh, who is chairman of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, also believes that Asian economies like China, India and Vietnam would continue to grow.
'We are not now overly dependent on the United States economy,' he said, adding that he was 'not overly pessimistic, despite the grave uncertainty over the credit crunch'.
He said: 'This is an international financial crisis forced by the sub-prime problem. The stock market has gone up and gone down and the credit squeeze will go on for quite some time.'
But he acknowledged that if the US economy were to go into a recession for a quarter or two, growth elsewhere would be affected.
'On the whole, the real economy should be on track for some growth this year in Singapore,' he said.
Mr Goh, who was speaking to reporters at his Marine Parade constituency where he handed out hongbao and Chinese New Year gifts to 48 needy residents, also welcomed news of rail lines reaching the constituency.
Transport Minister Raymond Lim announced last Friday that two new underground MRT lines would be built by 2020.
One of these lines, running from Changi to Marina Bay via Marine Parade would allow commuters to travel from Marine Parade to Marina Bay in 20 minutes.
Said Mr Goh: 'I've not got the details yet and I don't know where the station is, but so long as the line passes through or near Marine Parade, that's good news for the residents because then they can go to anywhere in Singapore quite conveniently.'
He also said the Transport Ministry's plans to overhaul land transport was 'good news'.
He added: 'The ministry is putting emphasis on the interest of the public...But the difficult part is the vehicle population growth.
'You can see year after year, there are more and more cars on the road and coming to Marine Parade now takes a longer time.'
SM Goh Upbeat About Singapore's Economy In 2008
Source : Channel NewsAsia, 27 January 2008
Singapore's economy should be on track with the government's growth forecast of 4.5 percent, says Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong.
Even with the current stock market volatility and credit crisis in the US, Mr Goh says Singapore's real economy should grow for 2008.
Related Video Link - http://tinyurl.com/27wqjx
SM Goh is also MP for Marine Parade GRC.
The needy residents at Marine Parade got an early Lunar New Year surprise on Sunday as the Senior Minister handed out "red packets" to them (worth S$100 in cash).
The 46 recipients also got a ComCare Fund check of S$100 and a trolley full of festive goodies.
But they and the rest of Singapore have other reasons to cheer as well.
SM Goh says he is not overly pessimistic about Singapore's economic outlook for 2008.
He adds that Singapore's growth should be in line with the MTI forecast of about 4.5 percent because of the robust growth here in the region.
Moreover Singapore is also not too dependant on the US economy.
Mr Goh says: "But of course, if the US economy goes into recession for one or two quarters, that will have an impact on growth elsewhere. China and India too will possibly be affected. On the whole, the real economy should be on track for some growth this year in Singapore."
And there was more upbeat news for Marine Parade residents, with the Transport Ministry's recent announcement of MRT lines reaching the area.
With a transport system emphasising on serving the public, residents can look forward to easier access to the rest of Singapore.
But Mr Goh had a concern: "The difficult part is vehicular population growth. We can see year after year, there's more and more cars on the road. Coming to Marine Parade takes a longer time than before. So we are putting emphasis on the public transport system."
The Ministry will make its policy announcement on car ownership next week. - CNA/ch
Singapore's economy should be on track with the government's growth forecast of 4.5 percent, says Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong.
Even with the current stock market volatility and credit crisis in the US, Mr Goh says Singapore's real economy should grow for 2008. Related Video Link - http://tinyurl.com/27wqjx
SM Goh is also MP for Marine Parade GRC.
The needy residents at Marine Parade got an early Lunar New Year surprise on Sunday as the Senior Minister handed out "red packets" to them (worth S$100 in cash).
The 46 recipients also got a ComCare Fund check of S$100 and a trolley full of festive goodies.
But they and the rest of Singapore have other reasons to cheer as well.
SM Goh says he is not overly pessimistic about Singapore's economic outlook for 2008.
He adds that Singapore's growth should be in line with the MTI forecast of about 4.5 percent because of the robust growth here in the region.
Moreover Singapore is also not too dependant on the US economy.
Mr Goh says: "But of course, if the US economy goes into recession for one or two quarters, that will have an impact on growth elsewhere. China and India too will possibly be affected. On the whole, the real economy should be on track for some growth this year in Singapore."
And there was more upbeat news for Marine Parade residents, with the Transport Ministry's recent announcement of MRT lines reaching the area.
With a transport system emphasising on serving the public, residents can look forward to easier access to the rest of Singapore.
But Mr Goh had a concern: "The difficult part is vehicular population growth. We can see year after year, there's more and more cars on the road. Coming to Marine Parade takes a longer time than before. So we are putting emphasis on the public transport system."
The Ministry will make its policy announcement on car ownership next week. - CNA/ch
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