Monday, June 23, 2008

Analysts' Views Mixed Over H2 GLS List

Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008

Generally, they welcome more sites on the reserve list

THE Government Land Sales (GLS) programme for the second half of this year has triggered mixed responses from property analysts.

While some read the moderate supply as a plus for property prices, others feel it reaffirms the weak market sentiment.

The GLS list for the second half of 2008 sees 13 new sites - comprising six residential sites, three commercial sites, three hotel sites and one white site. That's lower than the 17 new sites released in the first half.

Of the total 40 sites being offered in the second half, there are only eight confirmed sites, down from 11 in the first, and 32 are on the reserve list, up from 26.

'We see the 2H08 GLS list as reflective of the current market sentiment, following softer bids and the non-award of three tenders in the last six months,' says Citi analyst Wendy Koh.

Westcomb Research, however, views the reduced supply positively, saying that it 'will ease the current urge of developers to release their existing land bank under the current weak demand and reduce downward price pressure'.

Property stocks were a mixed bag on Friday, with CapitaLand up 36 cents at $6.08, Keppel Land up seven cents at $5.20, and GuocoLand down 25 cents at $2.18.

Generally, analysts welcome the market-driven approach to have more sites on the reserve list, in which sites are put up for sale only after developers have indicated interest by committing to a minimum bid.

'It affords the market some breathing space and developers and the market should read the decrease in the confirmed list quantum positively,' says DBS Vickers analyst Adrian Chua in a report.

Deutsche Bank notes that choice of sites was strategic in driving the development of new areas under the Master Plan 2008. The inclusion of four mass-market residential sites in the reserve list, it says, could be insurance against a sharp upswing in sentiment.

Moreover, the lack of supply of CBD office sites should provide relief to the prime office segment and landlords, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a report. 'Muted new supply for both residential and office versus previous years should provide some relief and improve sentiment at the margin.'

Deutsche Bank analysts have pegged a 'buy' call to City Developments and Keppel Land, but add that they continue to prefer Reits over the developers.

DBS Vickers kept its 'overweight' rating on the property sector on belief that the second-half GLS programme 'does inspire confidence in the planning of land supply in Singapore, ensuring sustainable and steady growth in the property sector in the medium-term'.

Its top pick among developers is City Developments for its proxy to the residential market. It has a 'buy' call on F&N for its predominantly mass-market land bank and Allgreen for its mid-tier/mass-market exposure.

Other analysts were less sanguine. Credit Suisse analyst Tricia Song says that she continues to see negative headwinds for the Singapore property sector in the near term, given potentially rising interest rates, construction costs, supply completions and falling rents. She is keeping her 'underweight' call on the property sector, with 'underweight' ratings for City Developments and Wing Tai, but 'neutral' calls for CapitaLand, Allgreen and Keppel Land.

For Nomura, the sound supply outlook for residential units - which the Urban Redevelopment Authority estimates to be 59,545 completed units between end-2007 and end-2011 - is 'unnerving'. It hence retained its bearish stance on the residential sector where it foresees further downside pressures in asset prices from marginal speculative sellers. It has a 'neutral' rating on City Developments and Keppel Land and a 'reduce' rating on CapitaLand.

US Housing Rebound To Be Prolonged: Harvard Study

Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008

NEW YORK - Record foreclosures and limited access to credit will make it harder than usual to rebound from this US housing market slump, the worst at least since World War Two, according to a Harvard University study on Monday.

A two-year home price drop is eating into housing wealth, curbing consumer spending and slicing away economic growth.

A two-year home price drop is eating into housing wealth, curbing consumer spending and slicing away economic growth

This is unlikely to change until potential home buyers are convinced that prices have stopped tumbling, the study found.

The downturn has room to run.

The highest home loan rates in nine months and strict lending standards are keeping buyers on the sidelines, even after aggressive Federal Reserve intervention and a 16 per cent national home price slide from the 2006 peak, by some measures.

'Historically, housing markets recover only after the economy has entered a recession and a combination of falling mortgage interest rates and house prices have improved housing affordability,' Nicolas P Retsinas, director of the Joint Centre for Housing Studies at Harvard, said in a statement.

'It will take longer this time to rebound given the unusually high levels of foreclosures and constrained credit markets,' he said. 'The slump in housing markets has not yet run its full course.'

Price declines and mortgage defaults are the worst on records dating back to the 1960s and 1970s, the study noted.

Job losses and falling prices intensify risk of foreclosure.

The number of homes entering foreclosure nearly doubled to 1.3 million in 2007 from about 660,000 in 2005.

Payment shock after rate resets on some adjustable loans, many made to higher-risk borrowers, has propelled owners into foreclosure. For others in trouble, falling prices leave them with mortgages larger than the home's value, and they are often unable to refinance or sell.

Also, new homebuilding and house sales rival the worst downturns in the post World War Two era.

The number of homeowners paying more than half of their income on housing surged by 35 per cent to 8.8 million in 2006 from 6.5 million five years earlier, according to the study, the centre's 20th annual broad report on US housing trends.

After rising for years, the US homeownership rate fell to 67.8 per cent at the end of 2007 from an all-time high 69 per cent in 2004.

'As investors demand a higher return for assumed risk and limit credit to riskier borrowers, costs are rising for all types of mortgage, consumer and corporate loans,' the centre said in a press release. 'Many would-be borrowers are now finding it impossible to get loans at any price.'

Economic weakness does not bode well for income growth in the short run, and housing cost pressures are unlikely to lighten in the long term. Much of employment growth will be in part-time and low-wage positions, the study said.

'The sombre conclusion is that if the economy slips into recession or job losses keep racking up, household growth and homeownership demand could fall even more,' the centre said in the release.

Barring a prolonged period of serious economic decline, the study projects household growth of about 14.5 million over the next 10 years. The main risk to that outlook is a drop in immigration from its recent 1.2 million annual pace due to weaker labour markets.

To get home affordability back to levels of 2000, before a five-year record home price and sales surge, 'would take some combination of large price declines, interest rate reductions, rent deflation and unprecedented real income growth', the study said.

Even then, homes were out of reach for many 'vulnerable households' often made up of low-wage workers, families with children and veterans. -- REUTERS

China To Change Property Investment Rule

Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008

BEIJING - China's Commerce Ministry will soon allow provinces to register inbound foreign investment in property, which would smooth the path for money to flow into the sector from abroad, the South China Morning Post said on Monday.

China has been tightening rules on foreign investment in its real estate sector to prevent it from overheating. Authorities last year ordered foreign investors to register with the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing after getting approvals from local governments.

The mooted rule change would shift the registration responsibility to provincial governments from Beijing. Provinces tend to be more keen on attracting investment.

The Chinese-language 21st Century Business Herald last week also reported the rule change, but quoted a Commerce Ministry as saying: 'The policy direction will not change. The new rule simply means you've got to register in a different place.'

However, the Hong Kong-based SCMP quoted an unnamed market source as saying: 'It will be a lot easier to get deals done if that's the case.'

Provincial governments often take less than a month to approve a deal. Registration in Beijing takes up to six months, which has discouraged some foreign investors.

China's property market has cooled a touch this year, with prices declining in some cities and transaction volumes down.

Many in the market think Beijing may ease restrictions on the property industry, which is a pillar of the national economy and grows at an annual rate of about 30 per cent. -- REUTERS

Asia Property Investment Up 27% In 2007

Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008

Property investment in Asia reached a record US$121 billion in 2007, according to consultants Jones Lang LaSalle, up 27 per cent from the previous year.

And while the credit crunch took its toll in Europe and North America in the second half of the year, pushing down global transaction value by 8 per cent from the second half of 2007, investment in Asia surged 22 per cent in the last six months.

Data from Jones Lang LaSalle shows transaction volumes globally in the first five months of 2008 were 40 per cent lower than in the same period last year, dragged down by weaker activity in Europe and the United States. -- REUTERS

Lian Beng Wins $117 Mln Construction Projects

Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008

Construction firm, Lian Beng Group Ltd, has won three new construction and civil engineering contracts worth a total of $117 million.

Among the contracts were two construction projects for the private residential sector.

The first of which was a $36.2 million contract awarded by Sing Holdings (Bellerive) Pte Ltd for the construction of Bellerive Condominium, a private residential development located at the junction of Keng Chin Road and Ewe Boon Road.

Work on Bellerive Condominium will involve the construction of 51 apartment units within a 15-storey block, and is scheduled to be complete by July 2010. The cost of constructing the Bellerive development works out to about $585 per sq ft.

Separately, the group won a $50.4 million contract from Lafe (Emerald Hill) Development Pte Ltd, to construct 33 private residential apartments at Emerald Hill Road.

The construction cost of the Emerald Hill development is estimated to be $668 per sq ft and work at this development is expected to be complete around the fourth quarter of 2010.

The group has also secured a $30 million civil engineering project, which was awarded by the Public Utilities Board, for a part of Singapore's network of NEWater pipelines.

For this project, Lian Beng has teamed up with Ri Dong Corporation Pte Ltd in a 50-50 joint-venture.

The civil engineering project will involve the design and construction of a NEWater pipeline running from Changi NEWater Plant to Jurong, Tuas and Jurong Island.

Work on the NEWater pipeline project is expected to be complete in July 2009.

With these latest contract wins, Lian Beng's orderbook stands at about $800 million. -- BT Newsroom

Indiabulls Too Bullish On Prospects

Source : The Business Times, June 19, 2008

THE latest real estate investment trust (Reit) to list in Singapore, Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust, didn't do too well when it went public two weeks ago.

The Reit raised $262.5 million from its initial public offer, lower than the maximum $288.8 million it had sought earlier. Shares were priced at $1 each, at the bottom of an indicated price band of $1-$1.10. The units closed at 92 cents yesterday.

The lower IPO pricing came even after an extension of the retail tranche offer.

But weak market sentiment was not the only reason for the poor IPO performance - there are also questions about the Reit's attractiveness and its ability to deliver.

Let's start off with the two properties in its portfolio - both uncompleted at the time of listing. One Indiabulls Centre (due for completion by the end of this month) and Elphinstone Mills (expected to be completed by the end of this year) are both located quite some distance from the main central business district in Mumbai.

Moreover, the trust's advertised yields are quite bullish. At $1 a unit, dividend per unit (DPU) yield is expected to be 4.0 per cent for next year and a rather high 9.4 per cent for 2010.

The financial assumptions behind the numbers are pretty aggressive. For next year, the property income margin is expected to be 88 per cent. For 2010, the projected margin comes to 90 per cent. The projected yields are also dependent on building completion and leasing.

This year's income delivery, for example, assumes One Indiabulls Centre's completion and leasing by around end-June and Elphinstone Mills by around end-November.

The Reit also expects occupancies to be in the range of 95 per cent for its office and mall components once it receives the occupancy certificates (India's equivalent of Singapore's temporary occupation permits).

But at the time of listing, One Indiabulls Centre had secured leases for some 988,000 sq ft of space out of a total of some 1.87 billion sq ft of office and retail space. This means that just over half - 53 per cent - of the lettable area has been leased.

And over at Elphinstone Mills, no leases had been locked in at the time of the listing.

What all these mean are that while units in the Reit are priced on completed building valuations, they still bear the risks of completion delays, project costs running over, failures to secure the various needed approvals from authorities as well as leasing risks.

In the light of this, investors might be better off adopting a 'wait-and-see' approach and buying into the trust once the projects are completed and leased out.

There is also another interesting nugget in the prospectus - some of the Reit's directors, who are also directors of Indiabulls Financial Services Limited (IBFSL) and its subsidiaries, have been named in legal proceedings initiated by IBFSL's clients.

The trust says that 'given the nature of the legal proceedings, the trustee-manager is of the view that the amount claimed by the claimants is not material and that the proceedings are in the ordinary course of business of the Indiabulls Group'.

But more details would be welcome.

With all this in mind, one is left wondering why Indiabulls pushed through a listing at a time when the market is weak, especially since units in the trust are tightly controlled. Most of the major shareholders have agreed to certain lock-up arrangements.

On Monday, Unitech Ltd, India's second-biggest property firm, scrapped plans for a US$600 million Reit offering in Singapore and, instead, turned to private equity firms to fund its expansion.

Maybe Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust would have been better served taking the same route.

Asian Economies Urged To Tighten Monetary Policy To Stave Off Inflation

Source : Channel NewsAsia, 23 June 2008

Asian economies are not doing enough to tighten their monetary policies in the face of rising costs, according to Henderson Global Investors.

It said that currencies must be allowed to appreciate and fuel subsidies scrapped if the region wants to bring inflation to heel.

Asian economies are feeling the heat from record high oil prices and rising inflation. And a growing number have been forced to relook at their fuel subsidies.

According to Henderson Global Investors, Asian economies must bite the bullet and avoid shot-term gains.

It said the current combination of oil subsidies, artificially-depressed currencies and untempered growth have kept demand high, despite supply being unable to keep up.

Tony Dolphin, Director of Economics and Asset Allocation, Henderson Global Investors, said: "Central banks have begun to accept that global growth has been too strong, particularly in Asia and emerging economies.

"So what we need to do is see the monetary authorities in those regions raise interest rates to bring growth down to a level to which the world economy, particularly the oil price, can cope."

Henderson Global Investors highlighted Japan as one economy that has been been able to dodge the bullet this time around. Previously suffering from deflation, the current inflationary pressures have served to stabilise the Japanese position instead.

Mr Dolphin said: "The fact that food and oil prices are rising has lifted its inflation rate to just over one per cent, so it's gone from too low an inflation rate to one that's quite normal.

"As a reaction to the oil prices that we saw in the 70's and 80's, Japan has taken enormous steps to make sure that it's very energy efficient. And so while the rise in oil prices is still a bad thing for Japan, it's less of a bad (thing) than it is for many other economies."

For investors reviewing their portfolios, Henderson Global Investors said the best option is to play it defensively, rather than just switching out to other assets, as all classes are likely to be depressed.

Mr Dolphin said: "If you're in an economy where inflation is running ahead of interest rates, then you've got very little option at all. You are likely to see your real savings erode. It doesn't make sense to jump into other assets because they are likely to be under pressure too." - CNA/ms

NTUC Chief Warns That Stagflation Is The Worst Case Scenario S'pore Could Face

Source : Channel NewsAsia, 22 June 2008

NTUC Chief Lim Swee Say warned that stagflation is the worst case scenario Singapore can face at this time. During a visit to Sengkang West on Sunday, he added that this can arise if Singaporeans are unable to survive the high costs of living while facing a stagnating economy.

Mr Lim observed that half a year ago, Singaporeans and many citizens in the Asia Pacific region were enjoying a buoyant economy. But that changed with the sub-prime crisis in the United States.

But Mr Lim said cutting taxes or giving broad-based subsidies will not solve the problem of inflation. Instead a targeted approach would be used to help those struggling with higher costs of living.

With a slowing global economy, residents at the dialogue session expressed their concern with rising costs such as ERP charges.

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Mr Lim said: "It's not the purpose of the government to make the people suffer more. It doesn't make sense that our government wants the people to suffer under high inflation. The purpose of ERP increases is not to increase revenue for the government. The one and only purpose of ERP increases is to manage traffic congestion in Singapore. If there is no traffic congestion, there will be no ERP increases."

Mr Lim said the government is trying to lighten inflationary pressures but will not offer popular solutions.

He said: "You did not see us cutting taxes or reducing GST credits because we adopt the approach where we subject everybody to the proper market discipline. If the market, oil or food costs this much, then everybody pay the market rates"

Mr Lim explained that the best way to cope with inflation is to understand the fact that not everyone is affected by inflation the same way. That’s why it makes sense for the government to have a targeted approach in assisting the different segments of Singapore society to cope with high inflation and the high cost of living.

This includes the three billion Singapore dollars in growth dividends and other forms of assistance which the government's been giving out. - CNA/vm

Sales of Dakota Residences encouraging

Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008

A CLOSELY watched property market preview has yielded encouraging results amidst the current subdued market conditions.

Ho Bee Investment and NTUC Choice Homes have sold 80 units at Dakota Residences over the weekend. The developers have so far released 122 units in the 348-unit project at an average price of $970 per square foot - lower than the $1,000 to $1,100 psf Ho Bee had indicated in June 2007 when the developers emerged as the top bidders for the 99-year leasehold site.

Good location: Buyers like the project's proximity to Dakota MRT Station and the popular Old Airport Road Food Centre

No deferred payment is available for the 19-storey condominium project, which will front Geylang River.

Buyers are predominantly Singaporeans, many with private home addresses. 'The majority of them live in the East Coast area, some even in landed homes. We have quite a number of professionals among the buyers,' said Ho Bee executive director Ong Chong Hua.

'It shows that if you price your project right, there are still buyers. There's quite a bit of pent-up demand. Also buyers like the project's proximity to Dakota MRT Station and the popular Old Airport Road Food Centre. The location is also very close to the popular East Coast area,' he added.

The plans for the Sports Hub and and Kallang Riverside area have also helped to stir interest in the project, Mr Ong reckons.

The project comprises a mix of two, three and four-bedroom apartments and penthouses. Both penthouses in the stack of 122 units released so far have been sold - a 3,700 sq ft unit went for $3.37 million and the other, a 2,605 sq ft unit, fetched $2.62 million. A typical three-bedroom apartment of about 1,300 sq ft in the development costs about $1.3 million on average.

Ho Bee and NTUC Choice Homes paid $524 psf per plot ratio at a state tender last year for the Dakota Residences site, which attracted a whopping 15 bids.

Asked if the developers will consider raising Dakota Residences' selling prices, Mr Ong said: 'We'll review it but any price adjustment will be moderate. Sentiment is still fragile. If you're too aggressive in raising prices, you run the risk of stalling the sales momentum.'

Urban Redevelopment Authority data released last week showed developers sold 441 new private homes in May, up from 284 units in April.

S'pore - Asia's Switzerland For Millionaires

Source : The Sunday Times, June 22, 2008

GOT at least US$5 million (S$6.8 million)? A private banker is at your service in Singapore, which is fast gaining a reputation as the Switzerland of Asia for the world's growing ranks of multi-millionaires.

The tiny, tropical island-state, South-east Asia's most advanced economy, has emerged as a centre for the wealth management industry which caters to an elite breed called high net worth individuals, or HNWIs.

Banks have beefed up their wealth management services, taking up swank offices in the business district as well as recruiting and training staff in the fine art of dealing with this moneyed class.

'Typically, a client should have a financial net worth of between US$5 million to US$10 million, excluding the house, car and wine collection - just money available to invest,' said Mr Marcel Kreis, head of private banking for the Asia Pacific region at Credit Suisse, the Swiss banking giant.

Years of strong economic growth and an indomitable entrepreneurial spirit have swelled the Asia Pacific region's list of HNWIs - defined as those with more than US$1 million in investible assets, industry players said.

An industry report by consultancy Capgemini and US investment bank Merrill Lynch said the financial wealth held by Asian HNWIs could reach a staggering US$12.7 trillion by 2011, growing at an annual rate of 8.5 per cent, above the global rate of 6.8 per cent.

This compares with the US$8.4 trillion dollars in financial assets held by Asian HNWIs in 2006 - nearly eight times the combined gross domestic product of all 10 South-east Asian states, including oil-rich Brunei, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.

China and Japan accounted for more than 64 per cent of the regional wealth, while Singapore, India and Indonesia produced the highest number of millionaires that year, the report said.

As of 2006, the Asia Pacific region had 2.6 million HNWIs or 27.1 per cent of the global total, it said. Only a small percentage of this number had a wealth manager, meaning the opportunities are vast, private bankers said.

While most of Asia's HNWIs hold between US$1 million and US$5 million in net worth, there was a noticeably sharp rise in 'ultra-HNWIs,' or people with more than US$30 million to invest, the report said.

Of the region's 17,500 ultra-HNWIs in 2006, more than 28 per cent were from China, it said.

- 'You can call it the Switzerland of Asia' - 'Singapore is an attractive location because it continually produces top graduates in all disciplines that matter to the industry. There are several similarities Singapore shares with Switzerland and you can probably call it the Switzerland of Asia,' said Mr Kreis.

Banking laws

Other industry players cited Singapore's tough banking secrecy laws, reliable legal system, well-regulated financial sector, world-class facilities and political stability.

Singapore has defended its banking secrecy laws from criticism, saying it has strong safeguards against money laundering.

Private bankers said self-policing by the industry, reinforced by strict government regulations, ensures that dirty money is screened out.

'At Credit Suisse, there is a very rigorous due diligence process and 'know your client' procedure in place that vets the type of clients when they come in. There are rules and regulations in place that supervise the transactions that we do when the client is on board,' Mr Kreis said.

Despite private banks setting up offices in key markets like China, India and Indonesia, 'still Singapore is the private banking, wealth management centre in the Asia Pacific, without doubt,' he said.

Mr Joseph Poon, head of the Macquarie Group's newly-launched Asian private wealth business based in Singapore, said the city-state is the world's fastest-growing private banking and wealth management centre.

In future, Singapore 'will be one of only two global private banking and wealth management hubs, the other being Switzerland,' he added.

Asia's HNWIs are generally self-made, second-generation entrepreneurs, who want a more hands-on role in how their finances are managed, private bankers said.

This compares with Europe, where a higher percentage of HNWIs have inherited their wealth and are likely to be more hands-off.

Singapore's de facto central bank said that, compared with the rapid expansion over the past six years, the wealth management industry is likely to slow this year due to global financial turmoil.

But the pause should be mild compared with the equity markets, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in an April report.

Overall, Asia's economic growth remains strong, and conducive for millionaires to flourish, wealth managers say.

'Not only are we seeing unprecedented wealth creation in Asia but the structure of the region's economies have fundamentally changed,' said Mr Didier von Daeniken, regional chief executive of Barclays Wealth.

'Education, technology and globalisation are driving wealth creation, resulting in a shift of economic power to the East.'

Wealth managed out of Singapore comes from clients worldwide, including China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and as far away as Russia and Europe. Japan's wealth is largely serviced domestically, industry figures said.

While rich Middle Easterners are traditionally served out of London and Switzerland, they are increasingly looking at investments in Asia as revenues from soaring oil prices fill their coffers, said Kreis of Credit Suisse.

An industry source, who asked not to be named, said the European Union's moves to step up scrutiny of European tax havens could prompt wealthy Europeans to increasingly look at offshore banking centres in Asia such as Singapore and Hong Kong. -- AFP

分析师:未来两年私宅供应没过剩 价格未必会显著退低

《联合早报》Jun 23, 2008



据第一太平戴维斯(Savills)统计的数据显示,本地私宅未来两年的潜在供应(potential supply)实际上要比市区重建局(URA)提供的数据来得少。2009年和2010年竣工的私宅单位分别有1万零270个和1万2249个,相比之下,市建局的官方数字显示,明年和后年的新私宅供应将为1万2723个和1万7445个。




由于楼市疲弱,建筑成本又高,有不少发展商买下集体出售项目后不急着拆掉重建,而选择暂时出租,比如礼敦岭(Leedon Heights)和花拉阁(Farrer Court),这减少了未来两年推出市场的供应。

此外,金香园(Tulip Gardens)、马克维景(Makeway View)和秉德阁(Pender Court)集体出售告吹也使市场未来的新供应“缩水”了一些。

虽然还没计算在未来供应内,目前还在高庭或分层地契局审理的浩然大厦(Horizon Towers)、吉门岭公寓(Gillman Heights)、民登苑(Minton Rise)和淡滨尼阁(Tampines Court),也将限制未来两年的供应。




邱瑞荣也指出,政府计划在今年下半年减少发售新地段,而采取更灵活的方式把更多地段列入备售名单(reserve list)不但能缓和市场顾虑,也有助于控制实际供应。




高纬物业(Cushman & Wakefield)则预测,从明年至2011年,未出售或即将推出市场的私宅供应将逐步增加,导致核心中央区(CCR)的中数(median)售价可能从2008年第一季的高峰下降8%至17%。


高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师则预计,本地房地产价格将在今年持续趋软,高档私宅价格将下跌10%,大众化私宅价格也可能下滑5%,并在明年进一步退低。



房地产后市走势 证券行看法不一

《联合早报》Jun 23, 2008





星展集团研究则针对政府下半年的售地计划发表报告认为,由于供私宅、酒店和商业楼面用途的正选地段(confirmed list)各比上半年的减少62%、58%和65%,这明显反映出政府开始要减少发售新地段,让市场有一些喘息发展空间。

尽管政府下半年的售地计划宣布并没有直接影响到任何上市房地产公司,有关宣布无疑促进了市场对本地土地供应规划的信心,确保了房地产业中期的持续性稳健成长,星展集团因此给予整体房地产业“加磅”评级,其中推荐的吸购首选为城市发展(CDL),目标价为12.90元,也给予代表中档与大众私宅部分的星狮集团(F&N)和长春产业(Allgreen Properties)“买入”评级,目标价分别为5.80元和1.66元。


此外,综合度假胜地的完工以及夜间一级方程式赛车将有助于把新加坡进一步转变成国际都市,本地房地产业中长期来说还是大有作为的,因此金英证券继续建议投资者买入城市发展、嘉德置地(CapitaLand)以及吉宝置业((Keppel Land),目标价分别是13.94元、7.48元和8.33元。


《联合早报》Jun 23, 2008

















市区公寓 老外新欢

《联合早报》Jun 22, 2008






ERA产业的王德金(Richard Ong)指出,海天大厦、瓅之尚都、中央城(Central)居家办公(SOHO)单位、凯联大厦(International Plaza)等坐落在金融区,或者金融区边缘的住宅单位,都相当受外国人欢迎。







对于没有子女的双收入夫妇(Double Income No Kids,简称DINKs)来说,由于没有靠近学校的必要,平时也难得开灶煮饭,所以也更容易适应市区的居住环境。


两卧房月租6000元 两三周就找到租户








30年屋龄凯联大厦 翻新后租金暴涨一倍



相较之下,乌节路心脏地带,例如辉盛坊(Vision Crest)和景颐峰(Cairnhill Crest)的两卧房式单位,月租金要6000元至7000元,比海天大厦和瓅之尚都租金贵了10%至20%。

不过,房地产经纪相信,即将在一两个月后完工的最新市区公寓滨海舫(The Sail),租金很可能足以媲美乌节路心脏地带的公寓,达到6000元至7000元一个月。

即将在一两个月后完工的市区公寓滨海舫(The Sail),租金很可能媲美乌节路公寓,达到每月6000至7000元。 (构想图)


二手房价降但租金仍高 现在买家能保现金入袋







无论是较靠近市区的郊外共管公寓,例如靠近中峇鲁地铁站的中部青园(Central Green Condominium)以及靠近景万岸(Kembagan)地铁站的The Trumps,还是距离市区较远的郊外共管公寓,例如四美的Modena,在扣除房贷、维持费和房地产税后,能够入袋的现金都所剩无几,有些甚至每个月还要掏出现金来供养。

以中部青园和The Trumps来说,现在的租金可以达到4200元一个月。但假设单位的售价为90万元,每个月的供款已高达3547元,两者的差距很小。以Modena来说,两卧房式单位的月租金大约是2500元至3000元,如果成交价是60万元,每个月的供款已高达2365元,扣除维持费和房地产税后,可能还要落入负数现金收入。








调查显示 全球房地产涨势接近尾声

《联合早报》Jun 21, 2008

全球房地产价格狂飙的日子是否已接近尾声?一项全球调查显示,若加入信贷紧缩和高通货膨胀的因素,环球房地产价格暴涨(price boom)的日子已经结束。

这项由环球房地产指南(Global Property Guide)进行的房价指数调查发现,截至今年第一季,若加入高通胀等因素,只有13个国家的房地产价格同一年前相比上涨了,其中就包括新加坡在内(上涨幅度达到21.56%,排在第五),涨幅最高的是斯洛伐克(增加29.3%)。


经通胀调整后 21国实际房价下滑






环球房地产指南出版人马修·蒙塔古波洛克(Matthew Montagu-Pollock)受询时指出,要准确预测房地产市场的走势向来非常困难,因为这个市场会受情绪和国家的基本面所左右。


马修指出,本地房地产市场面对的实际限制,似乎是租金回报(rental yield)太低的问题。他指出,当价格涨得很高的时候,回报就会很低,因为租金回报是以房地产租金除以价格来计算,而目前我国的房地产租金,介于2.7%至4.2%,环球房地产指南认为,这是偏低的。




今年首五个月 组屋转售交易量下滑

《联合早报》Jun 21, 2008














屋主为更快完成交易 以“零溢价”卖组屋




Buyers Bidding Up Prices Of Shophouses

Source : The Sunday Times, June 22, 2008

While sales have slumped this year after a strong run, units costing over $5m are attracting strong demand

SHOPHOUSES have been a popular choice for investors, as well as occupiers who sought to avoid the hefty office- rent increases that were so rampant last year.

But after a spectacular year, shophouse sales have sunk this year due to the cautious mood in the property market.

Shophouses near or inside the CBD, such as these units in Chinatown, are highly sought-after as they are often close to MRT stations, say consultants. -- ST FILE PHOTO

Nevertheless, new figures released by CBRE Research show that more buyers are snapping up shophouses that cost more than $5 million each.

So far this year, $98.58 million worth of properties have changed hands, compared with just above $1 billion worth for the whole of last year.

And since January, deals for shophouses worth more than $5 million each have reached 86 per cent of total sales, or $83.75 million, compared with 64 per cent of total sales or $694 million last year.

'Investors and business owners still see shophouse units as an alternative to alleviate the current supply crunch in the office market,' said CBRE Research's executive director, Mr Li Hiaw Ho.

In the past two years, demand for shophouses has shot up, raising the value of such properties, he said.

For instance, in January this year, a European fund paid $6.88 million for four shophouses in Club Street.

The seller had bought them for $3.6 million in May last year.

But not all sellers can make such gains. A lot still depends on location.

Popular with smaller set-ups

Shophouses located near or within the Central Business District (CBD) are highly sought-after as they are usually located near MRT stations, said CBRE Research.

Last month, a fairly small 1,171 sq ft shophouse in Boat Quay was sold for a hefty $5.25 million. Earlier this month, a 1,455 sq ft shophouse in Bukit Pasoh Road went for $6.2 million.

There are cheaper options.

In Tanjong Katong Road, a few shophouses spread over 8,697 sq ft were sold for $8.2 million in March, according to CBRE data.

These same units were previously transacted in July last year for $7.72 million.

'Shophouses tend to attract smaller set-ups, mainly because the shophouses are usually small,' said Mr Li.

'Some hedge funds and investment-related companies also find the units unique, similar to the townhouses which you can find in London,' he added.

Tenants for shophouses in prime locations, such as Amoy Street and Telok Ayer Street, are mostly hedge funds, law firms, architectural firms, interior designing firms and art design schools such as Sotheby's Art School, said CBRE Research.

Attractive rental yields

Rental yields for shophouses typically range from 4 to 6 per cent, above the usual residential ones of 3 to 4 per cent, said Colliers International's deputy managing director for agency & business services, Ms Grace Ng.

For owner-occupiers, shophouses may make good investments as they could be paying less in mortgage payments every month compared to monthly rent in a prime office building, property consultants said.

Still, asking rents for shophouses in prime locations have jumped by at least 40 per cent or more in the past year, said Mr Li.

Current rates in the CBD such as Telok Ayer Street are as high as $8 per sq ft (psf) to $8.50 psf a month, up from $5 psf to $6 psf a month a year ago.

This compares with current average rents of around $16 psf for prime office building space.

'Even with rising values and rents, shophouses are still attractive to tenants because of the current office supply crunch,' said Mr Li.

For investors, shophouses may prove to be a better investment than a strata office unit, which gives a typical yield of 4 to 4.5 per cent, he said.

Colliers International is marketing a two-storey corner shophouse in Peck Seah Street, off Tanjong Pagar Road, at an indicative price of $6.1 million. At this price, the buyer of the tenanted property will get a rental yield of 5 per cent.

CBRE is selling a four-storey shophouse in Tanjong Pagar Road. The two existing tenants are paying rents of between $3 psf and $4 psf a month, which give a rental yield of 3.5 per cent.

But the leases will end next year, it said. Whoever buys the property - the asking price is $9 million - can ask for rents of at least $5 or $6 psf, which would give a yield of around 5 per cent.


# For owner-occupiers, shophouses may make good investments, as they could be paying less in mortgage payments every month compared to monthly rent in a prime office building,

# Rental yields, ranging typically from 4 to 6 per cent, are often higher than for residential and office units, say property consultants.