Saturday, July 25, 2009

楼价不能反映楼市涨风?

Source : 《联合早报》July 25, 2009

过去几个月来楼市涨风四起,刚刚出炉的官方数据却显示第二季的私宅价格仍下跌了4.7%,令到许多人对两种截然不同的讯号感到混淆。

对于坊间“官方数据不准确的批评”,市区重建局回应本报的询问时说:“尽管一些销售成绩不错的项目,发展商确实开始调高价格,但还有其他项目,包括已完工和未完工的单位,仍在今年第二季出现价格跌幅。”

市建局说,它在计算房地产价格指数时,采用了所有已完工和未完工私宅单位的交易资料。这些交易资料来自买家提呈的买卖禁令(根据已执行的认购权)。根据这个方法,全岛和三个领域的私宅价格都继续下跌,不过跌幅比第一季明显放缓。   受访的一些市场人士指出,官方的数据不能反映人们在市场上看到的情况,其中一个原因是新项目的销售情况太过令人瞩目,大家只看到示范单位中人潮汹涌,却没有注意到二手市场上一些现楼,特别是屋龄较大的单位,价格仍在下跌。

另一个原因是,买家一般会在付了定金的6至8个星期内才提呈买卖禁令(caveats),这也就是说,许多房地产交易可能要延迟一两个月才被放入官方的数据内。

买卖禁令是买方在签署买卖协议之后,向土地管理局提出的一项申请。它的目的是保护自己的利益,阻止卖方在买卖合约完成之前,非法地将房地产再转卖给别人。

OrangeTee执行董事陈道俊说:“许多数据显示发展商在今年第二季,以更高的价格来推出新单位,但是这些交易大多没有反映在第二季的数据,或许是因为买家还没有申请买卖禁令。”

他昨天提供的一些新项目价格数据显示,像Belle Vue Residences、Concourse Skyline、艺居、新乐园和水之轩的价格都在4月至6月明显攀升。

一分析员也指出,市建局在计算房地产价格指数时,也采纳了过去12个季度的移动平均数(moving average)来作为比重。这种方法一般会对价格的走势起较平缓的作用,避免指数出现暴起暴跌的情况,许多政府机构的数据都会采用这种方法。

分析员:最近楼市旺有四原因

资深房地产分析员麦俊荣认为,最近的楼市旺是由四大原因带动的:股市回弹、低利率环境、通涨压力,以及比想象中短的危机期。

这名前莱坊(KnightFrank)研究部主管认为,最近买家一窝锋地涌进市场,带动楼市暴旺,连续五个月都卖出千多两千个新私宅单位,是由上述几个原因带动的。

他说,虽然经济处于低潮,就业前景也不乐观,买家却有能力进场,一方面是因为全球股市的回弹,为本地楼市注入了信心,另一方面是目前的房贷利率低,许多人担心接下来的价格迅速回升,错过了最好的机场机会,因而纷纷进场买楼。

“这一次的金融和房地产低潮期也比想象中来得短,许多投资者至今都还能够保住他们大部分的投资和金融储备,没有遭到整个全球金融危机太大的冲击。”

虽然本地私宅市场自2007年底就开始冷却下来,但是楼价只是在过去四个季度下滑了25%,回复到2007年初的水平。这意味,大多数在2004年至2006年进场的人仍浮出水面,还没有达到负资产的地步。再加上组屋转售价格一直维持在高水平,因此更对私人房屋价格提供了支持力量。

由于全球主要国家都纷纷印制钞票来救市,麦俊荣指出,许多投资者也担心未来一两年将出现高通货膨涨率,因此买资产以保值。

并未如市场人士预期的止跌回弹 我国次季私宅价跌幅放缓

Source : 《联合早报》July 25, 2009

市区重建局说,我国第二季的私宅价格下跌了4.7%。这虽比预估的5.9%跌幅来得少,却还是没如一些市场人士预期般扭转风向、止跌回弹。

昨天出炉的数字显示,本地私宅价格指数连续第四个季度下滑,由139.9点下滑至133.3点,不过速度已比第一季的14.1%重挫明显放慢。从2008年第二季的高峰算起,楼价已累积跌25%。单是今年上半年楼价则下滑了18%。

这个数据跟最近市场上涨风四起的情况有很大的不同,受访的市场人士相信,基于一些技术上的原因,政府的数据恐怕要到下个季度才能反映出价格上涨。

不过,昨天的数据却明显反映出楼市过去三个月来近乎沸腾的交易情况。今年第二季,有3059个二手单位在公开市场上成交,比第一季的1144个暴增两倍。还没有完工就转售的楼花,也由第一季的412个单位增加至940个。

新项目推出的买气更旺,发展商在今年第二季一共卖出4654个新私宅单位,单单是一个季度的销售量就已经超越2008年一整年卖出的4264个单位。这也比今年第一季卖出的2596个新私宅单位跃增了79%。

这也就是说,市场已经在今年上半年“消化”了7250个新私宅单位,跟过去十年来8037个单位的平均需求量已经相去不远。一些市场人士因而看好,2009年很可能是个楼市大红年,全年卖出的新私宅单位或许能超越2006年的创下的1万1147个新单位的需求量。

一些分析员担心: 楼市暴热可以多久?

一些市场人士因而调高今年楼价预测,高力国际研究部主管郑惠匀和房地产资深分析员麦俊荣都预测,私宅价格指数将在下半年回弹5%至10%,这将带动今年全年的跌幅减少至10%至15%。

不过,也有一些分析员因为担心这种楼市暴热的现象无法持续太久,而不愿作出任何预测。

一名不愿具名的分析员说:“没人知道这轮抢购热潮还能持续多久?有人猜测农历七月一到就会放慢下来,也有人认为起码可以跑到明年二三月。我真的不知道,现在只能希望市场不要冲过头,以至于出现一个大调整。”

昨天的数据也显示,第二季各类房地产价格和租金仍继续下跌,不过,经过第一季的暴跌后,第二季跌势都已明显放缓。

今年第一季,共管公寓和公寓价格暴跌了15.1%,到第二季则放缓至4.7%。同样的,有地住宅价格也由第一季暴跌9.2%放缓至下滑4.7%。

领导整个楼价下跌的仍是中高档公寓价格,代表高档领域的核心中央区(CCR)在第二季下跌了5.2%,代表中档领域的其他中央区(RCR)下跌了4.4%,代表大众化领域的中央区以外(OCR)则下跌了2.3%。

租金方面,全岛私宅租金在今年第一季下跌了8.5%,但于第二季放缓至下跌5.2%。办公楼的租金跌幅也由下跌10.7%放缓至下跌7.7%,商店的租金则从下跌3.3%放缓至下跌2.0%。只有工业房地产的租金连续两个季度都下跌5.6%。

组屋转售价迅速回弹 第二季微升1.4%

Source : 《联合早报》July 25, 2009

组屋转售价格只下滑一季便迅速回弹,整体价格在今年第二季微升1.4%,一反私宅价格持续下滑的趋势。

转售交易量 也猛增58%

组屋转售交易量也猛增58%,在过去四年多来首次在一季内突破1万宗交易的关卡。这显示许多买家趁屋价在年初滑落之际,涌入市场购屋。

建屋发展局昨天公布的第二季组屋转售市场数据显示,组屋转售价指数增至140.2点,在经济不景之际创下历史新高,增幅也比本月初预估的1.2%来得高。

组屋转售价在今年第一季下滑0.8%,结束两年多的增长势头。房屋经纪原本估计低迷的经济局势会导致价格继续滑落,不料价格先跌后起,成功收复失地。然而,作为市场温度计的整体转售组屋溢价中位数(median cash-over-valuation)还是继续下滑至3000元,比第一季少了1000元,跌幅为25%。组屋溢价的跌幅已放缓,第一季猛跌超过70%。

需付溢价以完成买卖的交易也减少,从首季的62%减至第二季的57%。其余买家是在组屋估价或以下完成交易。

在今年首季组屋价格下跌以及溢价猛挫的刺激下,组屋转售交易量也激增,从首季的6446宗交易增至1万零184宗。

值得注意的是,各类组屋的转售交易量一律增加,大型组屋也不例外,显示需求已不受经济不景冲击。共有2713间五房式组屋在第二季易手,比上一季多80%。完成买卖的公寓式组屋也倍增,从今年首季的372间增至753间。

博纳集团(PropNex)总裁伊斯迈说,组屋溢价目前处于两年多来的最低水平,意味买家无须支付额外现金给屋主,有助于刺激需求,带动买气。

以大型组屋来说,五房式和公寓式组屋的溢价中位数是零,可吸引有意提升的买家进场。

去年初,当组屋溢价动辙要两三万元的时候,一些无法拿出大笔现金的潜在买家被拒于市场外,转售交易量也因此减少。

不过,HSR房产经纪公司执行董事郑来明指出,虽然组屋溢价已减少,这不意味组屋价格比去年低,因为估价可能已增加,以致组屋价格可能与去年的不相上下。

“市场对组屋的需求一向强劲,除了要组织家庭的年轻夫妇及提升屋型者外,许多永久居民也会购买组屋作栖身之所。”

组屋估价是根据出售组屋的地点、屋龄、面积、设计和同地区转售组屋的售价进行比较后所得出的价格。组屋溢价指的是估价以外的现金数额。

在OrangeTee执行董事陈道俊看来,尽管组屋转售价在经济低迷之际创下新高,这其实并不稀奇,因为不少人可能认为最坏的情况已经过去。

他说,当许多人认为经济复苏曙光已出现时,便不会再对房地产市场却步。“买家过去多持有观望态度,现在则更愿意进场,因为他们担心价格日后会上涨得更多。”

房屋经纪认为,按目前走势,转售价将在未来半年保持平稳,季度价格增幅估计不超过2%。

新组屋方面,建屋局打算在今年下半年推出6000间预购组屋,超过三分之一是三房式或更小组屋。大部分新组屋将位于榜鹅新镇。

陈良宇事件落幕 上海豪宅销量再度红火

Source : 《联合早报》July 25, 2009

从2005年开盘以来就因“天价”令人望而却步的沪上豪华楼盘“汤臣一品”,自上月中旬开始,销售突然“红火”起来,一个月来售出24套房子,与三年里只售出四套楼房的情况相比,简直是天渊之别。

此现象引起热议,众人竞相分析个中原因。学者认为,这预示着上海豪宅市场还有很大的发展空间,房地产中介则说这是因为豪华楼盘相继推出,汤臣一品的价格已经不让人觉得那么突兀。

汤臣一品客厅景观。(汤臣提供)

此外,中国国务院关于2020年初步建成上海国际金融和航运中心的愿景规划,也让房地产投资者更具信心。

众多分析都回避了一个原因,那就是因腐败“落马”的上海前“一把手”陈良宇,当时也把部分人民的“保命钱”——社会保险基金,挪用到房地产开发项目了,以致沪上的豪宅项目都警惕自己要保持低调。此次沪上豪宅再高调地销售并备受关注,或许也是因为许多涉及该事件的人都已获惩处。

位于上海浦东陆家嘴的汤臣一品,开盘时因出售均价每平方米达人民币(下同)11万元(2万2900新元),被称为沪上“第一豪宅”。它在2006年8月开盘后的10月,才打破了零销售的僵局,据称一个单位被神秘人以13亿元购得。岂料,汤臣一品随后却被怀疑进行虚拟交易和自我炒作,让它的销售更难被激活,甚至背负起黄浦江畔“花瓶”之名。

然而,汤臣一品日前却高调邀请传媒出席有关两岸三地豪宅市场发展的论坛,并在会上声称自6月22日推出“小户型”单位以来,一个月内已售出24套房子,占该楼盘可售住宅总量110套的超过五分一,还即将推出一批新房源。

这批“小户型”单位面积比大型的小了200平方米左右,每平方米的均价也少了3万多元。

汤臣一品不再是豪宅

房地产中介汉宇房地产顾问公司董事总经理施宏春认为,随着时间的推移,汤臣一品已经不是真正意义上的豪宅。这是因为,每平方米至少5万元的楼房不再稀缺。他举例,陆家嘴上的在建香港新鸿基房地产项目,每平方米的售价估计不会低过15万元。

复旦大学房地产研究中心主任华伟则分析,豪宅具有资产保值的作用,特别是在金融风暴席卷、通货膨胀的预期下,成了“避险”的最佳投资途径。他说,当“钱不值钱”时,以房子赚更多钱,是许多富人的首选。他也认为,大家对豪宅的投资才在“起步阶段”。

提供房地产相关服务的易居中国所提供的数据显示,2009年上半年上海豪宅成交量达到600套,平均价格每平方米4万元以上,创下历史新高。至于陆家嘴,它在今年上半年成交的二手豪宅多达226套。一般认为,这也与陆家嘴是“两个中心”规划中的金融机构集聚地有关。

中华两岸商机促进会理事长、房地产分析师蔡为民认为,两个中心的建设“让人无法忽视上海的惊人能量与爆发力”。

他解释,举凡国际金融或经济中心,其国内生产总值(GDP)都占国家经济总量20至25%之间,如纽约GDP占美国的24%,伦敦占英国的22%以及东京占日本的26%等,但目前上海的GDP仅占中国的4.6%,“说明一旦政策、措施配套到位,上海后续增长空间极其广阔”。

他也说:“国际金融中心一般需要约60万名境内外金融人才,而当前上海金融业即使把(普通)人力都算上,也只有12.8万,显示后进者将大有人在。这些财力雄厚、注重品位与地位的专业人士,一旦陆续进驻上海、陆家嘴,对房地产所产生的强大购买力,可想而知。”

Resale Prices Of HDB Homes Up 1.4% In Q2

Source : 938live.sg , 24th July 2009

The resale prices of HDB flats rose by 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2009.

This comes after a slight drop of 0.8 percent in the three months ending March.

The jump in the second quarter was higher than an initial estimate of a 1.2 per cent increase made earlier this month.

Resale transactions also rose, jumping from 6,400 cases in the first quarter, to 10,000 cases in the 2nd quarter.

The median cash-over-valuation or COV amount among all resale transactions continued its declining trend.

COV fell to $3,000 in the second quarter, down $1,000 from the 1st quarter.

CEO of real estate firm Propnex, Mohamed Ismail, said the lower COV made resale flats more attractive.

"COV has further declined, and this would have attributed for more buyers looking towards resale rather than the BTO or DBSS. Because either BTO or DBSS will take 3 to 4 years before they can get the keys to their respective houses. And this trend is expected to continue as long as the HDB COV is low, there will be greater demand."

HDB flats which sold above valuation accounted for 57 per cent of all resale transactions in the second quarter, down from 62 percent in the previous quarter.

HDB also announced plans to launch 6,000 new Build-to-Order flats over the next six months, of which some 2,400 units will be 3-room or smaller apartments.

The bulk of the new flats will be in Punggol.

In the HDB rental market, rents for 3-room, 4-room and executive flats fell by $100, but remained the same for 2-room and 5-room units.

Singapore's Private Home Prices Fall 4.7% In Q2

Source : 938live.sg , 24th July 2009

Analysts say the worse is over for Singapore's private property market even though private home prices continued to fall in the second quarter.

Citing a recent surge in Singapore's equity market, a spate of new developments being launched and an influx of foreign buyers, the analysts forecast home prices turning positive as early as next quarter.

Data released from the Urban Redevelopment Authority today, showed that Singapore’s private home prices fell 4.7 percent in the second quarter.

Although it's the fourth quarterly decline in residential property prices, it's less than URA's initial estimate of a 5.9 per cent drop announced earlier this month, and a far cry from the 14.1 percent plunge in the first quarter.

Steven Tan, executive director of property consultancy Orange Tee, says the numbers reflect a boost in investor confidence in the Singapore market.

"More and more buyers are confident that the global and Singapore economy is on the way to recovery and there is also a lot of pent up demand especially from the HDB upgraders. The market is also supported by foreign buyers from countries like China, Indonesia, India...some even come in quite a big way, some institutions are looking for a bulk purchase."

According to Li Hiaw Ho, Executive Director of CBRE Research, the total number of new homes sold in the second quarter exceeded the total number of new homes sold in the entire year 2008.

She attributes this to strong market sentiments from buyers worried that home prices may rise again after having corrected from peak levels.

The URA data also showed activity in the sub-sales market, which more than doubled to 940 in the second quarter, accounting for more than a tenth of all sale transactions in the quarter.

Managing director of Cushman and Wakefield Donald Han says this indicates the presence of more speculators in the market - which may not necessarily be a bad thing.

"The improvement that we're seeing certainly would attract a lot of investors, let it be investors or specu-vestors - people who can hold a little bit longer but the intention is still to sell, into the marketplace and I think even if there is speculators in the market, they still play an important role in terms of trying to create liquidity and I think there is a role for both long term as well as short term investors in today's market."

Private residential rents also fell 5.2 percent in the second quarter but moderated from an 8.5 percent fall in the previous quarter.

Agents' 'Greed' Prompts Warnings

Source : TODAY, Jul 24, 2009

'Fee for secure booking' practice reportedly rampant at Meadows@Peirce

THE sizzling-hot property market and the rush by buyers to secure choice units have led some property agents to turn greedy.

Some agents are offering potential buyers their services to secure a booking for their choice units if they pay them a commission. This has prompted at least two marketing agencies to warn their agents against this practice.

This scheme is reportedly rampant at the freehold Meadows@Peirce development near Teachers' Estate, which is supposed to be open for preview only from today.

Some marketing agents, however, told Today that it is the potential buyers that are offering commissions to agents to secure for them their choice units.

The fee earned by these agents is said to be about 1 per cent of the property value. With unit prices at Meadows@Peirce ranging from $900,000 to more than $1 million, these agents could potentially earn between $9,000 and more than $10,000 for each unit that they can secure for an eager buyer.

In an email to its 3,000 associates on Wednesday, ERA Realty Network, one of the marketing agents for the project, warned: "Please do NOT collect commission from buyers for Meadows@Peirce or any other projects. Anyone caught doing so will be terminated from ERA and no commission will be paid to the associates."

ERA's associate director Eugene Lim said the email was a "preventive measure".

"We want to stop it before anyone receives a commission. It is not right," he added.

Of late, ERA has been cracking the whip on its agents in an industry where complaints of rogue or ignorant agents are rife. Last week, ERA warned its agents against submitting transactions under the names of senior colleagues to garner a higher share of the commissions.

And in February, a couple successfully sued ERA after its agents profited from "flipping" an apartment they were engaged to sell. The couple had sold their apartment through ERA agent Jeremy Ang, but it turned out that the buyer, Ms Natassha Sadiq, was the wife of his boss Mike Parikh, a senior director at ERA. She immediately resold the unit for a $257,000 gain.

Another marketing agent for Meadows@Peirce also issued an email warning a few days ago. Knight Frank reminded its 700 agents that they cannot receive or ask for commission from buyers, cannot collect an entrance fee into the showflat and cannot ask for blank cheques, which can subsequently cause the buyer to feel pressured to make a purchase.

The company's executive director Foo Suan Peng said: "This is something we don't condone because it will give rise to conflict of interest."

Agents Today spoke to said the "fee for secured booking" practice happens with other projects, too. One said there was "nothing wrong" for buyers to pay agents, as both are willing parties.

Singapore Accredited Estate Agencies chief executive Tan Tee Khoon disagrees. He told Today: "The agent receives a commission from buyers when they are already hired by the developer to provide the services. That is unethical."