Source :《联合早报》October 24, 2008
在越刮越猛的信贷风暴下，今年第三季的大宗房地产交易锐减七八成，创下四年来的最低水平。
根据高力国际（Colliers International）昨天发表的报告，今年7月至9月，房地产发展商和投资者只买下总值18亿8000万元的房地产，这比一年前楼市巅峰时的购买能力猛降85％。如果与今年第一季和第二季相比，则显著下滑了超过七成。
本地的房地产投资销售金额（investment sales）在2007年第三季创下最高峰，该季成交的大宗房地产交易总值高达126亿6000万元。但在美国次贷风暴于去年8月引爆后，投资者的信心便大受冲击，今年第一季的房地产投资销售额下跌至83亿7000万元、第二季下跌至63亿1000万元。
到了今年第三季，房地产投资销售额更进一步猛坠至18亿8000万元，这是自2004年第三季以来的最低水平。
几乎没有一个房地产领域幸免，不过最明显受挫的是工业房地产领域，今年第三季只有总值1亿8802万元的房地产成交。这比今年第二季的21亿2000万元猛挫了91.1％。
不过，这主要是因为第二季的房地产投资销售市场，有裕廊集团脱售价值17亿1000万元的工业房地产在支撑。如果撇开这宗特殊的一次过交易，工业房地产的投资销售额则在第三季下跌了54％。
商业房地产的交易额也下降了87.4％，由第二季的23亿2000万元减少至第三季的2亿9371万元。今年初就已经受到冲击的私宅房地产投资销售市场，反而没有下跌得那么厉害，第三季仍有11亿6000万元的房地产成交，比第二季的18亿1000万元减少了35.5％。
房地产投资销售指的是市场上的大宗房地产交易，这包括发展地段、整栋大楼、整层楼面的转手，每一宗交易金额至少要500万元。一般来说，它是市场景气的领先指标，反映了发展商和投资者对房地产市场的中长期看法。
展望未来，高力国际认为，在雷曼兄弟、美林、AIG、美联银行（Wachovia）等金融巨头都接二连三倒下后，全球的信贷市场进一步紧缩，因此新加坡的房地产投资销售市场预料会在未来几个季度都维持淡静，只有一些小宗的房地产交易，或者一些不良资产能够顺利成交。
它认为，现有的信贷紧缩环境下，会导致超过5亿元的大宗房地产交易无法成交，反而是一些2亿元以下的房地产可能找到买家。“这是因为仍握有资金的潜在买家，例如财富主权基金、私募基金、石油产国的投资者，以及一些身家丰厚的富豪，将比较倾向于投资在较小宗的房地产交易。”
此外，由于裕廊集团计划在截至2009年3月的财政年度脱售更多的现有工厂，来鼓励私人企业参与，因此这些脱售活动也会刺激一些较小宗的房地产交易成交。
高力国际估计，一些不良资产也可能在未来几个月内开始浮现出来，这是因为金融界所受到的破坏将逐渐渗透到其他领域，冲击一些公司和投资者的财务能力。而现有的信贷紧缩情况将导致它们没有太多的财务选择，破产的风险大大增加。
Monday, October 27, 2008
高盛：中国救楼市措施能防房价大跌
Source :《联合早报》October 24, 2008
（北京讯）高盛报告显示，中国推出10项刺激经济措施，其中与房地产市场有关的措施在未来几个月内，将有利于防止房地产价格大幅度下跌。
湖北宜昌的一个住房展销会吸引了不少的买家。房地产市场占中国GDP10％，住房市场的发展方向将决定中国经济在未来18个月的走势。（法新社）
中国财政部前晚公布的拯救楼市措施，包括调降产业交易税率；金融机构对居民首次购买普通自住房和改善型普通自住房提供贷款，其贷款利率的下限可扩大为贷款基准利率的0.7倍，最低首付款比例调整为20%；加快廉租住房建设。
高盛高华证券昨日发布的分析报告指出，新的住房抵押贷款规定不仅较预期更早发布，而且条件也较预期来的优厚与进取，相信相关措施将可以防止房地产价格急速下滑的同时，消除第二套房产贷款限制措施对市场所产生的不利影响。
据中国房地产界人士的分析，此次新政出台，很大程度上宣告了去年出台“二套房贷政策”寿终正寝。新政中的“改善型普通自住房”，可理解为二次置业，这就等于说是“二套房贷”退出历史舞台。如果是政策条文的制定者有意避免开“二套房贷”，那么，或许就在一定程度上为各地方政府在接下来制定补充细则时真正摒弃 “二套房贷”打开了一扇门。
无论如何，高盛高华的报告说，“二套房贷”的负面影响减弱，将有助于中国房地产类股的反弹。但是，这一类股的股价能否出现大幅回弹，则须视未来宏观环境和房地产市场复苏的力道而定。
另据法新社报道，摩根大通分析师龚方雄认为，此次的拯救楼市措施，显示出中国政府在抗衡金融海啸上的超强能力。
他说，新措施的宣布是一大利好消息，该行动较预期来得更快，因为中国第三季度经济增幅较预期糟，而且经济放缓的幅度也较中国政府所预期的大。
即便如此，龚方雄在其分析简讯中说，中国拥有大量的外汇储备和稳定的汇率，是目前世界上在抵御环球金融危机方面，最具备灵活性的国家。
其他分析师也同意这一看法，指出中国扶持占国内生产总值10％的房市，是很关键性的做法。
瑞士信贷分析师陶冬在其分析中指出，住房市场的发展方向将决定中国经济在未来18个月的走势。
“新措施反映中国政府对经济增长风险大担心程度正在升高。”
（北京讯）高盛报告显示，中国推出10项刺激经济措施，其中与房地产市场有关的措施在未来几个月内，将有利于防止房地产价格大幅度下跌。
湖北宜昌的一个住房展销会吸引了不少的买家。房地产市场占中国GDP10％，住房市场的发展方向将决定中国经济在未来18个月的走势。（法新社）中国财政部前晚公布的拯救楼市措施，包括调降产业交易税率；金融机构对居民首次购买普通自住房和改善型普通自住房提供贷款，其贷款利率的下限可扩大为贷款基准利率的0.7倍，最低首付款比例调整为20%；加快廉租住房建设。
高盛高华证券昨日发布的分析报告指出，新的住房抵押贷款规定不仅较预期更早发布，而且条件也较预期来的优厚与进取，相信相关措施将可以防止房地产价格急速下滑的同时，消除第二套房产贷款限制措施对市场所产生的不利影响。
据中国房地产界人士的分析，此次新政出台，很大程度上宣告了去年出台“二套房贷政策”寿终正寝。新政中的“改善型普通自住房”，可理解为二次置业，这就等于说是“二套房贷”退出历史舞台。如果是政策条文的制定者有意避免开“二套房贷”，那么，或许就在一定程度上为各地方政府在接下来制定补充细则时真正摒弃 “二套房贷”打开了一扇门。
无论如何，高盛高华的报告说，“二套房贷”的负面影响减弱，将有助于中国房地产类股的反弹。但是，这一类股的股价能否出现大幅回弹，则须视未来宏观环境和房地产市场复苏的力道而定。
另据法新社报道，摩根大通分析师龚方雄认为，此次的拯救楼市措施，显示出中国政府在抗衡金融海啸上的超强能力。
他说，新措施的宣布是一大利好消息，该行动较预期来得更快，因为中国第三季度经济增幅较预期糟，而且经济放缓的幅度也较中国政府所预期的大。
即便如此，龚方雄在其分析简讯中说，中国拥有大量的外汇储备和稳定的汇率，是目前世界上在抵御环球金融危机方面，最具备灵活性的国家。
其他分析师也同意这一看法，指出中国扶持占国内生产总值10％的房市，是很关键性的做法。
瑞士信贷分析师陶冬在其分析中指出，住房市场的发展方向将决定中国经济在未来18个月的走势。
“新措施反映中国政府对经济增长风险大担心程度正在升高。”
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Singapore's Q3 Private Home Prices Down 2.4% On-Quarter
Source : Channel NewsAsia, 24 October 2008
Private home prices in Singapore came in weaker than expected for the third quarter, dropping by 2.4 per cent - worse than an earlier estimate of 1.8 per cent. The quarter-on-quarter drop was the first decline in more than four years.
Data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed prices fell across the board, with prices for high-end homes in prime areas seeing the biggest drop of 2.7 per cent.
Analysts said there has not been panic selling yet, but they expect prices to drop by about 3 to 5 per cent in the quarters to come.
Donald Han, managing director of Cushman & Wakefield, said: "We don't know what's going to happen in the next 2 to 3 months. There will be people who've been affected by the stock market (declines), who might be late in their payment, and that might eventually translate to more pressurised selling."
The mass-market and mid-tier segments, which have shown some resilience in previous quarters, have also not been spared.
Prices for mass-market homes fell by 1.5 per cent, while those for the mid-tier segment declined by 2.4 per cent.
URA said there are over 66,000 units of private homes in the pipeline - of these more than 37,000 units will be completed by 2011.
Some property consultants said developers may choose to launch their projects before the market gets worse.
Tan Huey Ying, Colliers International's director for research & advisory, said: "Now that the market is firmly on a downward path, I think there are some developers who may take this opportunity to launch their projects instead of waiting for prices to drop even further.
"On the other hand, there might be some developers with strong financial standing who may want to continue to develop their properties, but launch at a later date when the market recovers."
Sub-sales accounted for about 11.6 per cent of all sales transactions in the third quarter.
Ms Tan expects this segment to hold steady for the next six to nine months. And it is likely to be dominated by purchasers for properties that are nearing completion or speculators who opt to take profit now.
Rentals of private residential properties also fell in the third quarter, dropping by about one per cent.
Meanwhile, Housing and Development Board (HDB) data showed prices of resale flats rose by 4.2 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. - CNA/yb/ir
Private home prices in Singapore came in weaker than expected for the third quarter, dropping by 2.4 per cent - worse than an earlier estimate of 1.8 per cent. The quarter-on-quarter drop was the first decline in more than four years.
Data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed prices fell across the board, with prices for high-end homes in prime areas seeing the biggest drop of 2.7 per cent. Analysts said there has not been panic selling yet, but they expect prices to drop by about 3 to 5 per cent in the quarters to come.
Donald Han, managing director of Cushman & Wakefield, said: "We don't know what's going to happen in the next 2 to 3 months. There will be people who've been affected by the stock market (declines), who might be late in their payment, and that might eventually translate to more pressurised selling."
The mass-market and mid-tier segments, which have shown some resilience in previous quarters, have also not been spared.
Prices for mass-market homes fell by 1.5 per cent, while those for the mid-tier segment declined by 2.4 per cent.
URA said there are over 66,000 units of private homes in the pipeline - of these more than 37,000 units will be completed by 2011.
Some property consultants said developers may choose to launch their projects before the market gets worse.
Tan Huey Ying, Colliers International's director for research & advisory, said: "Now that the market is firmly on a downward path, I think there are some developers who may take this opportunity to launch their projects instead of waiting for prices to drop even further.
"On the other hand, there might be some developers with strong financial standing who may want to continue to develop their properties, but launch at a later date when the market recovers."
Sub-sales accounted for about 11.6 per cent of all sales transactions in the third quarter.
Ms Tan expects this segment to hold steady for the next six to nine months. And it is likely to be dominated by purchasers for properties that are nearing completion or speculators who opt to take profit now.
Rentals of private residential properties also fell in the third quarter, dropping by about one per cent.
Meanwhile, Housing and Development Board (HDB) data showed prices of resale flats rose by 4.2 per cent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter. - CNA/yb/ir
Private Home Prices Fall
Source : The Straits Times, Oct 24, 2008
PRIVATE home prices fell faster than expected in the third quarter as the global financial turmoil weighed further on market sentiment.
Singapore releases advance estimates on property prices shortly after the end of each quarter based primarily on transactions during the first 10 weeks of the period. -- PHOTO: THE BUSINESS TIMES
Data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Friday showed that prices slipped by 2.4 per cent. This compares with an initial estimate of 1.8 per cent that was released earlier this month and a 0.2 per cent rise in the previous quarter.
Rentals of private homes, too, fell in the third quarter. The fall was at 0.9 per cent, compared with a rise of 2.5 per cent in the second quarter.
The HDB resale flat market, however, continued its upward push in the third quarter. Prices rose 4.2 per cent, compared with a 4.5 per cent rise in the second quarter.
Resale transactions also edged up 4 per cent to 8,110 cases.
But, reflecting the softening of the property market, the cash-over-valuation (COV) amount of HDB resale transactions fell to $19,000 in the third quarter, from $20,000 in the previous three months.
Cases requiring COV made up 89 per cent of all resale transactions in this quarter, with 11per cent conducted at or below valuation, said an HDB statement on Friday.
Given the weaker global outlook, property consultants are expecting home prices to continue to weaken in the last quarter of the year and 2009.
The fall in private home prices in the three months to Sept marked the first decline in four years amid concerns over the worsening global financial turmoil and coincides with the economy?s descent into recession during the quarter.
News of further weakness in the property sector extended the losses on the Singapore stock market, with the benchmark Straits Times Index falling by over 7 per cent on Friday to a five-year low, in line with the slide in regional markets.
By 2.21pm, the index was 7.55 per cent lower at 1,613.88 points, the lowest level since Oct 2003.
The country's top two property developers CapitaLand and City Developments both fell over 7 per cent, after government data showed third quarter home prices fell a bigger-than-expected 2.4 per cent from the previous quarter.
PRIVATE home prices fell faster than expected in the third quarter as the global financial turmoil weighed further on market sentiment.
Singapore releases advance estimates on property prices shortly after the end of each quarter based primarily on transactions during the first 10 weeks of the period. -- PHOTO: THE BUSINESS TIMESData released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Friday showed that prices slipped by 2.4 per cent. This compares with an initial estimate of 1.8 per cent that was released earlier this month and a 0.2 per cent rise in the previous quarter.
Rentals of private homes, too, fell in the third quarter. The fall was at 0.9 per cent, compared with a rise of 2.5 per cent in the second quarter.
The HDB resale flat market, however, continued its upward push in the third quarter. Prices rose 4.2 per cent, compared with a 4.5 per cent rise in the second quarter.
Resale transactions also edged up 4 per cent to 8,110 cases.
But, reflecting the softening of the property market, the cash-over-valuation (COV) amount of HDB resale transactions fell to $19,000 in the third quarter, from $20,000 in the previous three months.
Cases requiring COV made up 89 per cent of all resale transactions in this quarter, with 11per cent conducted at or below valuation, said an HDB statement on Friday.
Given the weaker global outlook, property consultants are expecting home prices to continue to weaken in the last quarter of the year and 2009.
The fall in private home prices in the three months to Sept marked the first decline in four years amid concerns over the worsening global financial turmoil and coincides with the economy?s descent into recession during the quarter.
News of further weakness in the property sector extended the losses on the Singapore stock market, with the benchmark Straits Times Index falling by over 7 per cent on Friday to a five-year low, in line with the slide in regional markets.
By 2.21pm, the index was 7.55 per cent lower at 1,613.88 points, the lowest level since Oct 2003.
The country's top two property developers CapitaLand and City Developments both fell over 7 per cent, after government data showed third quarter home prices fell a bigger-than-expected 2.4 per cent from the previous quarter.
Private Property Prices Down 2.4% In Q3
Source : The Business Times, October 24, 2008
The official private home price index slipped 2.4 per cent cent in the third quarter compared with the preceding quarter, according to latest data by Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Friday.
'Prices of private residential, office, and shop properties decreased by 2.4 per cent, 3.9 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively in the Q3 2008 while the prices of industrial properties increased slightly by 0.9 per cent in the same period,' URA said.
'Rentals of private residential, office and shop properties decreased by 0.9 per cent, 0.8 per cent, and 0.6 per cent respectively in the 3rd Quarter 2008, while the rentals for industrial properties increased slightly by 0.1 per cent in the same period,' URA said.
In the public housing segment, Housing & Development Board's resale flat price index rose 4.2 per cent in Q3 over the preceding quarter, lower than the 4.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter gain seen in Q2. The total number of HDB resale applications registered rose by 4.5 per cent, from 7,763 cases in Q2 to 8,112 cases in Q3.
The median Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) amount of all resale transactions in Q3 was $19,000 (US$12,646) - slightly lower than the $20,000 COV in Q2.
Cases requiring COV constituted 89 per cent of all resale transactions in Q3, with 11 per cent of resale transactions conducted at or below valuation.
Overall median sublet rents for HDB flats rose slightly in Q3. However, subletting transactions fell about 4 per cent from about 4,120 cases in Q2 to about 3,960 cases in Q3. The total number of HDB flats approved for subletting rose to about 21,400 units, compared to about 20,200 units in Q2.
For URA's news release:
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-107.html
For HDB's news release:
http://tinyurl.com/64uzul
The official private home price index slipped 2.4 per cent cent in the third quarter compared with the preceding quarter, according to latest data by Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Friday.
'Prices of private residential, office, and shop properties decreased by 2.4 per cent, 3.9 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively in the Q3 2008 while the prices of industrial properties increased slightly by 0.9 per cent in the same period,' URA said.
'Rentals of private residential, office and shop properties decreased by 0.9 per cent, 0.8 per cent, and 0.6 per cent respectively in the 3rd Quarter 2008, while the rentals for industrial properties increased slightly by 0.1 per cent in the same period,' URA said.
In the public housing segment, Housing & Development Board's resale flat price index rose 4.2 per cent in Q3 over the preceding quarter, lower than the 4.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter gain seen in Q2. The total number of HDB resale applications registered rose by 4.5 per cent, from 7,763 cases in Q2 to 8,112 cases in Q3.
The median Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) amount of all resale transactions in Q3 was $19,000 (US$12,646) - slightly lower than the $20,000 COV in Q2.
Cases requiring COV constituted 89 per cent of all resale transactions in Q3, with 11 per cent of resale transactions conducted at or below valuation.
Overall median sublet rents for HDB flats rose slightly in Q3. However, subletting transactions fell about 4 per cent from about 4,120 cases in Q2 to about 3,960 cases in Q3. The total number of HDB flats approved for subletting rose to about 21,400 units, compared to about 20,200 units in Q2.
For URA's news release:
http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2008/pr08-107.html
For HDB's news release:
http://tinyurl.com/64uzul
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