中国楼市刮风下雨 房地产商谁是“猪坚强”？

Source : 《联合早报》July 14, 2008

中国房地产商现在提倡学习当“猪坚强”，就是那头四川大地震后坚持36天，把自己从150公斤瘦到了50公斤的“中国第一猪”。在国家紧缩政策之下，房地产商正面对着前所未有的资金压力，大浪淘沙后究竟谁会成为“猪坚强”？

在国家紧缩政策之下，房地产商正面对着前所未有的资金压力，大浪淘沙后究竟谁会成为“猪坚强”？

大洗牌即将出现

银行现在不愿意借钱给地产商，这对地产商来说，就像钢厂拿不到铁矿石，或者是电厂没有煤。老百姓买涨不买跌，就算降价卖房也未必会有人要。而最近一年以天价拿地的企业，更面临着无钱开发或被迫卖地的无奈选择。

中国地产商中肯定有“守得云开见月明”的，比如品牌叫得响的行业领头羊，或最近上市，手里攥着大把现金的企业。但那些只有一两个项目的，或没赶上上市末班车的企业将会“无可奈何花落去”，市场大洗牌即将出现。

资本市场投资者觉得抄底的时候还没有到来，因为还没什么人“跳楼大甩卖”，只有像美国这样，倒下一批地产公司，市场才可能触底。现在地产市场的情况是成交量缩小，卖家和买家处于僵持状态。地产商憋着等待金秋销售旺季，希望下半年能补足上半年的缺口。

去年中国出了新的规定，即外资投资房地产无论金额大小，均需到商务部备案。现在管理层担心银行会出现坏账，又放松了政策，投资规模在1亿美元（1亿3500万新元）下不需到中央报批，但境外地产商并没有因为政策的松动而蜂拥而至。他们觉得中国的房价相对于老百姓收入太离谱了，房贷风波后美国和欧洲可能提供了更好的投资机会。

在香港上市的大陆地产商最近一个月股价跌了20％左右，但最近因为国家宏调有放松的迹象而大幅回升。分析家们认为，这可能只是昙花一现，如果没有真正的利好消息跟上，过几天还得跌回去。

“今年下半年到明年上半年，金融对发展商绝对不会松的，对他们来说将会是一个难捱的严冬，”基强联行投资管理公司创始人陈基强说，“未来将会看到一场混战。”

保住银行　牺牲地产商

有房地产商放出“要死也是银行先死”的狂言，但事实上是房地产商靠银行吃饭。“国家现在是要保证银行资产，就算牺牲中国一半房地产商，政府眼睛也不会眨。以后资金面松动了，发展商又会像雨后春笋一样出来，培养一家银行哪会那么容易?”摩根士丹利的中国策略师娄刚说。

发展商虽然已经叫苦连天，但和某些行业比，日子过得还不错，起码利润率还是挺高的。他们要变成“猪坚强”，就要顺势而为，这包括大胆降价。

（根据路透社顾蔚专栏整理）July 07, 2008

Next 5 To 10 Years Will Be Most Promising For S'pore: MM Lee

Source : The Business Times, July 12, 2008

We are going to move into a new plateau, a new platform, he says

For someone who has openly admitted that he worries constantly about the future of the country he's helped to build, Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew yesterday painted a surprisingly upbeat picture of what the near future holds for Singapore.

The next five to 10 years will be the 'most promising' in the Republic's entire history, said Mr Lee last night at a dialogue organised by the Economic Society of Singapore (ESS).

Responding to a question about whether he was still optimistic about Singapore's growth prospects, Mr Lee said: 'If there are no big recessions worldwide, easily 4 to 6 per cent, maybe 7 to 8 per cent (a year). We should be all right.'

The hour-long dialogue at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel - attended by over 800 guests including economists and academics - was the first time that Mr Lee had spoken at an ESS event since 1969.

'We are going to move into a new plateau, a new platform. I took a drive around Marina Bay the other day. You can see the boardwalk they are putting up, the integrated resorts, Clarke Quay, the Singapore River. This will be a beautiful city in five years. In 10 years, it will be wonderful and on a different plane,' he said.

But with Singapore facing tough structural issues such as an ageing and dwindling domestic population, Mr Lee described the country as 'not normal' compared to other cities such as Hong Kong and Macau.

'We are on our own, running our own navy, army and air force. Hong Kong does not do that, neither does Macau. We therefore have no room for making mistakes, hence the biggest expenditure in our budget is defence, followed by education. Without defence, you are inviting everyone to just walk in and take over - and they will,' he said.

At the end of the day, Mr Lee said, the government had a duty to give the best life possible for the population. But the 'biggest problem', he said, was in retaining talented individuals that want to make Singapore their home.

'We have educated Singaporeans in English to the best of the world's standards, made them viable and employable anywhere in the world. You need that core group who are able, well-trained, to say this is my country and I'm going to build it up,' said Mr Lee.

On the flip side, however, he explained how Singapore has been successful in attracting talent from overseas who eventually take root and settle down here.

'We have lost some whom we would have dearly loved to keep. We've trained them, high fliers who went to the US to top universities, then worked for financial corporations and big institutions. Maybe they'll come back, maybe they won't. At the same time, we have even larger numbers of people - from India, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Nepal, who want to stay here,' he said. 'I'm not so pessimistic about the trade-off. I think so far we are net winners.'

Mr Lee was also asked about whether Singapore needed a liberal democracy to succeed economically, a suggestion that the Minister Mentor pounced on.

'Over the years, nations have become quite ideological in saying that if you want to succeed, you must have a free market and liberal democracy. The idea is that if everyone had a liberal democracy, there would be no wars. I doubt that.'

'They are prescribing universal rules for the whole world. My question to them is: 'Have you ever run Singapore? Do you know how we got here?'. . . We are not stupid people, they give us all this advice. The International Bar Association, who are they? Have you ever built a community and given them jobs? We have, and we know what's good for us.'

Mr Lee then suggested how there was a conspiracy by foreigners against Singapore's success story. 'Why? Because we are a little red dot. They see us as a threat. The Russians are studying us. How does this little country, with so little talent, keep its ruling party in place and run a tight ship, honest and effective, and make progress? Can they do it? I don't know. They are picking up points here and there. If they can, good luck to them.'

The key to being successful in this regard, he added, was to 'have a feel for the people and be honest and meritocratic'.

'Can this system last? I'm not sure. I've done my job. I've passed it on to the next generation. I hope they will pass it on to an equally confident generation. As long as they can do it, they will last.'

Tampines Court Collective Sale In Peril

Source : The Straits Times, July 12, 2008

STB rules not to bring forward Aug 7 hearing, which must take place before deal is signed by July 25 deadline

THE sales committee at Tampines Court looks to have shot itself in the foot after a ruling by the Strata Titles Board (STB) yesterday almost certainly killed off its estate's $405 million collective sale.

CRUCIAL: With no extension, the Tampines Court sale agreement will likely lapse on July 25. -- PHOTO: WWW.CHANKOKHONG.COM.SG

It delayed seeking mandatory STB approval for the deal and is now caught in a deadline trap of its own making.

The key date is July 25, that is when the estate's sales committee must complete the deal. However, that looks impossible now after yesterday's STB decision.

The board ruled that it would not bring forward an Aug 7 hearing set to allow testimony from witnesses that have yet to be called.

The STB had pencilled in the date after listening to sale objectors on June 16 to 18 and 'taking into account the availability of all parties and the board', it said.

Until that Aug 7 hearing is conducted, the sale cannot be signed and sealed.

The Straits Times understands that the sales committee wanted a date change as the buyers - Frasers Centrepoint and Far East Organization - will not extend the completion deadline.

With no extension, the sale agreement will likely lapse on July 25. This means the developers can walk away from a deal that looks far less compelling now than last July, given souring homebuyer sentiment and escalating construction costs.

However, this might be a blessing in disguise for some owners at the estate. The deal was inked just before the property boom at prices around $430 per sq ft (psf), but private homes in Tampines now go from $550 to $700 psf.

The deadline crunch seems to be of the sales committee's own making.

The conditions of the sales agreement were met on July 25 last year but the committee delayed applying for the standard STB approval until Jan 7.

The committee told the STB that it wanted to await the outcome of legal challenges over the contentious Gillman Heights sale.

The committee argued that if the Gillman Heights sale was halted over issues of majority consent, it would have made a Tampines Court application futile.

In the Gillman Heights case, minority owners appealed all the way to the High Court, claiming that collective sale rules did not apply to former Housing and Urban Development Company (HUDC) estates.

Tampines Court is also a former HUDC estate so any ruling could have killed its own collective sale.

But Justice Choo Han Teck ruled last month that a privatised HUDC estate can be sold collectively if the requisite conditions are met.

While that also cleared the way for the Tampines Court sale, it left the sales committee with little time to tie up loose ends, including objections by minority owners.

The STB registrar had some sympathy yesterday for the committee's argument about why it delayed applying for sale approval.

But he pointed out that a sale agreement has a deadline and, by waiting for the High Court ruling, the committtee took the risk that it would not have enough time to get a ruling from the board before the expiry date.

'This is a calculated risk, whose consequences they will have to bear,' he said.

'The board should not be pressured to accommodate a deadline set by the applicants and the buyer.'

A lawyer acting for the minority owners told The Straits Times that he did not want to comment on the outcome.

The one lifeline for the majority owners would be if the buyers extend the deadline but that also looks a lost cause.

Far East Organization and Frasers Centrepoint told The Straits Times last night that they are ready to complete the deal, but 'the onus was upon the vendors to secure the STB order within the agreed timeframe, which is about 16 months from the date of the agreement'.

Savills director of marketing and business development Ku Swee Yong said since the deal was inked last July, construction costs have escalated a lot faster than mass market property prices.

'The project, unsurprisingly, has become less attractive,' he said.

Tampines Court is a sizeable 702,162 sq ft site with 560 units. It could be redeveloped into a new condominium with around 1,580 units averaging 1,300 sq ft.


Key proceedings

March 25, 2007: Tampines Court's sales committee enters a sale and purchase agreement with Far East Organization and Frasers Centrepoint.

July 25, 2007: The conditions of the sales agreement are fulfilled.

Jan 7: The sales committee applies to the Strata Titles Board (STB) for sale approval and the minority owners then file their objections.

June 16 to 18: The STB hears the objections and sets the next hearing for Aug 7.

June 30: The sales committee applies to bring the Aug 7 hearing forward to before the sale's July 25 expiry date.

July 11: STB dismisses the sales committee's request.

市建局整体规划 获颁亚太区卓越奖

Source : 《联合早报》July 11, 2008

市区重建局在勿拉士峇沙—白沙浮地区作的整体规划，得到国际认可，获颁城市土地学会的亚太区卓越奖。

这是该局第二次获得城市土地学会（Urban Land Institute，简称ULI）颁发的奖项。它为新加坡规划的保留计划曾在前年获得最高荣誉的环球卓越奖和亚太区卓越奖。

崭新的Iluma娱乐城预计在今年内竣工，届时将为学生和艺术家提供另一个消闲好去处。（WOHA建筑事务所照片）

市区重建局自二三十年前就致力将勿拉士峇沙—白沙浮地区打造成艺术文化气息浓烈、新旧文化交错、年轻学子升学和消闲的活力地带。今年共有来自亚太区多份作品角逐城市土地学会的奖项。

由国际著名土地发展与设计专家和建筑师组成的七人评判小组到各国视察后，最终选出五份得奖作品。

评审团认为，勿拉士峇沙—白沙浮的发展计划，巧妙结合了保留手法和先进的填入式建筑（infill building）技术，将文化、艺术、教育和娱乐注入同个地区，说明了当局的可持续城市的规划策略是卓越的。

其中两名评判在6月间到我国参观该地区各个发展项目，都对市建局的努力表示赞赏。

市建局局长蔡君炫昨晚出席在东京的颁奖礼。她说：“能赢得奖项对市建局和新加坡来说是极大的荣誉……没有公共部门和私人机构的参与和贡献，我们是没办法完成这么多发展项目的，因此荣耀也属于他们。”

城市土地学会是非盈利的国际研究与教育机构，提倡土地的善用与发展。自1979年起，每年颁发卓越奖项给美国和欧洲的优秀土地发展与建筑作品。该学会在2005年首次增设亚太区和环球奖项，让亚太区国家也能参与。评审标准包括领导能力、对社会的贡献、创意、环境保护及经济效益等。

占地95公顷的勿拉士峇沙—白沙浮区是多元文化与传统相融合的地带，建筑风格也多样化，因此市建局当初在策划改造和重建工程时，其中一个重要考量是如何保留这地区的独特文化色彩和性格。

蔡君炫说：“毕竟这些浓郁的地方特色，都是当地社群美好回忆的一部分，自然会让人把这些地方的特色和勿拉士峇沙—白沙浮地区联想在一起。”

本区整体规划特色包括：

◆文化

保留具独特风格的建筑物。如旧圣约瑟书院改建为新加坡美术馆，旧道南学校改为土生文化馆，和附近国家博物馆形成博物馆区。此区也是12个宗教场所的所在地，其中五个更被立为国家古迹。

◆艺术

把滑铁卢街改为步行街，引进街头表演。国家艺理会的艺术之家计划也将滑铁卢街发展成滑铁卢艺术区。

◆教育

首次让大学落户在市区内。

◆娱乐

市建局决定在白沙浮建设崭新的Iluma娱乐城，让本区活力四射，散发文化、艺术、教育与娱乐中心的气息。

一些楼花售价下跌高达27％ 上半年私宅转售锐减

Source : 《联合早报》July 11, 2008

美国次贷危机的冷水把本地房地产市场的“炒气”都浇灭了。今年上半年，我国私宅转售（sub-sale）交易量和售价都直线下滑，一些楼花的售价甚至下跌高达27％。

野村证券（Nomura）最新发表的新加坡房地产研究报告指出，有别于年初情况，我国私宅转售价格已经开始普遍下滑，平均下跌8％，而这样的“窘境”不仅限制在一两个项目，大部分的项目以10％至15％的较低价格转手，尤其是位于市区的项目。

比如位于丹戎巴葛的海天大楼（The Icon），今年1月转手的单位总共有9个，平均转售价为每平方英尺1530元，但在过去半年来却直线下滑。今年5月，仅有一个单位易主，转售价则下跌至每平方英尺1123元，较年初来得低27％左右。

即将完工的滨海舫(The Sail)是去年“炒气”最旺的项目，每三个单位当中就有一个曾经转手超过一次，有两个单位还换了五个主人。该项目今年一月共有9个单位转手，平均售价为每平方英尺2139元，但今时不同往日，5月份只有一个单位转售，售价为每平方英尺1649元，相比一月份低了22.9％。

相比之下，位于市区外的项目，5月份的转售价和交易量还持稳1月份的水平。位于实龙岗路城市雅居（City Square Residences）5月份有2个单位转手，以每平方英尺1039元出售，与1月份的1043元不相上下。

投机需求抽离市场 价格还会再下跌

撰写报告的分析师达尔威（Tony Darwell）和拉兹（Daniel Raats）表示，投机性需求抽离市场、买家预期资产价格还会进一步下跌、租金市场接近顶峰、发展商未出售库存增加，而未来将出现供过于求的情况等都是导致市场气氛下陷的原因。

“新加坡楼市已从原本的否认状态，转变为接受资产价格下跌的现实。”

另外，达尔威和拉兹也指出，近期推出市场的项目，平均售价要比去年底预期来得低10％至15％。虽然市场反应踊跃，但两人认为买家不应超之过急，把它视为市场好转的迹象。他们相信，许多炒家将陆续在今年底和明年，当手上项目接近完工时会开始降低价格抛售，到时候将会有更多供应充斥市场。

豪宅价格 未来三年可能大跌

在转售回报和租金持续下滑的情况下，达尔威和拉兹预测，我国豪宅价格将进行大幅度整合，在未来三年内滑落32.3％，平均售价达每平方英尺1847元。至于大众化私宅，他们认为，今年的售价相信将持稳，全年微涨0.5％，但在新供应陆续推出市场后，到了2010年可能退低19.4％。