Growth Of Office Rentals To Slow

Source : The Business Times, 03 October 2007

Tenants prepared to explore lower-cost locations and alternative premises: CBRE

Modest but still attractive: The indicative price for the six-storey building at 23 Middle Road is $28m

ENOUGH is enough. Or so it seems for those having to pay high office rents.

CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) executive director (office services) Moray Armstrong foresees further rent rises but reckons that the pace of increases will slow.

'We have observed tenants' increasing resistance to rental hikes,' he said. 'Occupiers are more prepared to explore lower-cost locations and alternative premises such as business parks and high-tech space.'

CBRE's analysis of Q3 2007 data shows prime office rents averaged $12.60 psf per month, an increase of 16.7 per cent quarter on quarter (QoQ) and 82.6 per cent year on year (YoY).

Grade A office rents now average $14.90 psf per month, an increase of 13.7 per cent QoQ and 96.1 per cent YoY.

CBRE said that at end-August, full potential supply - the sum of known private sector project supply, awarded Government Land Sales sites and potential supply from expected future land sales - was 10.8 million sq ft for 2007-2012.

This reflects an increase of 147 per cent from full potential supply of 4.4 million sq ft identified two quarters ago at end-March 2007 and works out to average potential annual supply of 1.8 million sq ft for the next six years, higher than the past 10-year average supply of 1.5 million sq ft per annum.

Based on projected average annual take-up of 1.6 million sq ft for 2007-2012, CBRE forecasts relative equilibrium between supply and take-up over this period, remaining in the range of 91 to 95 per cent even if full potential supply materialises.

'On the supply side, the government's reaction has been measured so far, but care is required in monitoring any future change in demand for office space,' says CBRE.

'As such, it may be timely for all in the sector - landlords, tenants, policy-makers - to take stock of the market dynamics in setting out policy and making decisions.'

The temptation to keep pushing rents is why Colliers International expects a modest office building at 23 Middle Road to be attractive.

The indicative price for the six-storey building - which has a total gross floor area of 23,499 sq ft and a net lettable area of 17,314 sq ft - is $28 million or $1,600 psf of net lettable area.

Colliers' executive director for investment sales Ho Eng Joo says: 'If tenants in the CBD have to pay more than $10 psf per month they may as well consider buying their own property rather than face landlords who keep raising rents.'

Mr Ho expects accountancy and law firms may be among the bidders for the Middle Road building.

With space tight, office property also has good investment potential.

Based on average rent of $6-$8 psf per month in the Middle Road area, Mr Ho expects an investment yield of 4-5 per cent.

And with capital appreciation, gains could be much higher.