The construction industry is expected to lead Singapore's economic growth this year, according to 19 economists polled in the latest quarterly survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).
They projected an expansion of 15.9 per cent for the construction sector this year, up 2.4 percentage points from the forecast in the previous MAS survey in December. Analysts Channel NewsAsia spoke to, shared their optimism.
OCBC Bank's vice-president for treasury research and strategy, Emmanuel Ng, said: "There are still certain sectors expected to exhibit resilience this year - those that are largely less exposed to external weakening. We look to construction, financial services, as well as wholesale and retail."
UOB's economist, Ho Woei Chen, said: "There's still building on the IRs (integrated resorts), Marina Bay Financial Centre, Sports Hub in Kallang. There's still a lot of road projects going on, this will keep the construction sector growing by double digits this year."
The construction sector grew 20.3 per cent last year.
In the MAS survey, economists also revised upwards their growth expectations for the financial sector, to 9.5 per cent, due to support from strong loans growth in January.
UOB's Ho Woei Chen said: "Financial sector is another bright spot, based on survey results. The sector will continue to see strong growth this year, but will be lower than 17 per cent we saw last year. There's support from loans growth, which we saw coming in quite strongly in (the) month of January."
However, analysts expect growth in the manufacturing and hotels & restaurants sectors to slow due to rising oil prices and a slowdown in the US economy.
OCBC Bank's Emmanuel Ng said: "Between the last survey in December and now, I think the situation in the US macro picture has deteriorated significantly, especially from the non-farm numbers last Friday. As a result, I think markets have revised down their expectations for US growth profile."
On inflation in Singapore, economists surveyed said they expect consumer prices to rise to a median 5 per cent this year, against last year's 2.1 per cent.
They also expect the central bank to keep to its current monetary policy of allowing the Singapore dollar to appreciate gradually.
UOB's Ho Woei Chen said: "There's some speculation of Singdollar tightening in April. We see some possibility of that, but we have to take into account growth risk, going forward. It may not be a good idea to have Singdollar strengthening too excessively given that we are seeing some slowdown in external growth... this could hurt export sector further."
The Singapore economy is expected to grow by between 4 and 6 percent this year, based on official forecasts. - CNA/ir
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