Fall in subsale deals as sub-prime fallout and Ghost Month cool buying fever
In the traditionally quiet 'Ghost Month' of August - when property transactions slowed dramatically - two significant trends emerged.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority released its update on private residential properties yesterday, showing that sales by developers actually went up compared to July. But caveats lodged in August showed that there was a sharp drop in subsales, signalling a cooling down of speculative activity.
At the same time, Colliers International pointed out that compared to July, August saw far more activity in the mass market.
The trends emerged against the backdrop of the US sub-prime mortgage shock, which served as a reality check for those gripped by the market frenzy of earlier months. In tandem with the Hungry Ghost month, this reduced the total number of transactions in August to 2,875, compared to 4,492 in July.
Developers launched 1,847 units in August, and sold 1,720.
And Colliers International estimates that about 47 per cent of the units launched and around 40 per cent of those sold were in the mass market segment.
'This trend differed from that of last month in which the bulk of 45 per cent of the units launched were mid-tier units located in the rest of central region (RCR). Mass market units only accounted for 27 per cent in July 2007,' said Colliers' director for research and consultancy, Tay Huey Ying.
Although Ms Tay believes it is still too early to say if developers' focus has now shifted to the mass market, she added: 'The high-end and luxury segment has dominated the market since 2005, but from what we are seeing, it does now seem to be more evenly spread.'
Prices growth appeared to be somewhat muted. 'Median prices of developments with units sold in both July and August rose marginally by an average of 2.7 per cent only,' Ms Tay said.
The US sub-prime crisis and the lack of high-profile launches could have contributed to the slowdown, she added.
The development which saw the highest growth in median price in August was The Orchard Residences. Its median price rose 25.8 per cent. However, only two units were sold - one at $5,500 psf and another at $4,687 psf. A spokesman for CapitaLand said the $5,500 psf penthouse was bought by a foreigner.
The penthouse, which is expected to have cost between $23 million and $27.5 million, has set the record for the most expensive property in Singapore on a per square foot basis.
Prices for most properties, however, are seen to be stabilising.
Ms Tay expects overall prices to 'resume with the return of market confidence', but added that price growth will be more 'controlled'.
Interestingly, more stable prices have been accompanied by a drop in subsale activity. Colliers' analysis of caveats lodged in August show that it now stands at 7 per cent of the total volume of property transactions. In July alone, subsale activity was almost twice as high at 13 per cent.
But, overall, market confidence is still intact, noted CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho, who pointed out that prices still rose in August - albeit more slowly.
'The very prime projects were marketed at above $3,600 psf while those in the fringe area were sold at above $1,200 psf,' he said.
Two hot launches - The Parc Condominium and Soleil @ Sinaran - accounted for over 60 per cent of developer sales. Mr Li said median prices of Soleil @ Sinaran, at $1,410 psf, and The Parc Condominium, at $870 psf, were 'within expectations'.
'For the rest of the third quarter, price levels are expected to remain stable,' he said.
Although the mass market prices have been slower to rise, Savills Singapore director of marketing and business development Ku Swee Yong believes the increases on a year-on-year basis are significant.
'Last year, most buyers' definition of prices for a mass market development would have been around $600 psf,' he said. Based on URA's monthly figures, only 71 units, or about 4 per cent of the units sold in August, cost under $750 psf.
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