Source : The Straits Times, Oct 3, 2008
Global credit freeze
Interest costs are rising and they may be stuck with project backlogs
PROPERTY developers here are likely to be among the first to feel the chill winds sweeping into Singapore from the big freeze-up in global credit markets.
For years, being among the largest borrowers in town, they have lapped up cheap credit to finance major projects. But now, they are set to feel the squeeze from the markedly higher interest costs arising from the global credit crunch.
They may also face a large backlog of vacant units, if buyers who signed up to buy properties through deferred payment schemes fail to secure financing to complete purchases. These schemes were stopped last October.
The global credit crisis erupted about a year ago in the United States, but until now, it has not touched Singapore in a truly significant way.
Local banks did not scale back on loans to firms and individuals. The interbank market - comprising loans between banks - was flush with cash. In early August, the one-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor) charged for loans between banks was just 0.75 per cent.
But this cosy scenario altered dramatically after the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers two weeks ago. US insurer American International Group almost went belly up soon after.
In the 10 days after that, as global credit markets froze up completely and banks refused to lend to each other, the one-month Sibor shot up, hitting 2.275 per cent last Friday before easing to 1.8125 per cent yesterday.
Singapore home buyers have started to notice that 'distressed sales' are now more common, as banks turn more cagey about extending loans to buyers, in case they are over-stretched financially.
Remisier Alan Goh said: 'I recently saw a flat that the owner had to sell cheap. Otherwise, the bank would not give him a loan for his new flat, which had just received its temporary occupation permit (TOP).'
Going by gloomy reports put out by analysts, the situation may not improve, as an estimated 15,000 new flats are set to hit the market by the end of next year.
'Our economist is now projecting the service sector will create just 20,000 jobs next year, against the 100,000-plus jobs a year created since 2006,' said Citigroup analyst Wendy Koh.
She expects the residential market to swing from 'a standoff between buyers and sellers to a buyer's market'.
A softening job market and rougher economic conditions are hardly likely to encourage any bank to expand its mortgage portfolio.
For property developers, this will be a double whammy, hitting them just as the income stream from completed projects is due to help fund their start-ups.
Credit Suisse noted that in the second quarter, smaller developers were already saddled with gearing ratios of 242 per cent. In other words, for each dollar put up by their shareholders, they had borrowed another $2.42.
Some analysts are worried that with credit drying up, these heavily indebted developers could face difficulties in refinancing as interest rates rise.
Large developers have been more prudent, maintaining their gearing at 52 per cent in the second quarter, but that may be scant consolation given the size of their commitments.
Credit Suisse estimated that CapitaLand's gearing could rise to 1.1 times if all $8 billion of its major commitments comes in at once.
Keppel Land is also likely to be financially stretched by its projects in the Marina Bay Financial Centre, and in Vietnam and China, Credit Suisse added.
Even Allgreen Properties could see its gearing shoot up to 1.5 times, given its $2billion worth of impending investments in China.
Weighted down by such large financial commitments, whenever new problems emerge in global credit markets, developers will face a fresh round of worries.
Take last Tuesday, after the US Congress rejected the original US$700 billion (S$1 trillion) plan to buy the troubled assets of US financial institutions.
The big loser on the local market that day was City Developments, which plunged $1.27, or 14.8 per cent, to $7.33 at the opening bell.
In contrast, traders were relatively sanguine about local banks, despite the bruising received by financial institutions elsewhere. DBS Group Holdings lost only 90 cents, or 5.3 per cent, falling to $16 at the opening bell that day.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Twelve Iconic Structures
Source : The Straits Times, Oct 4, 2008
The URA has extended its conservation efforts to cover towers, bridges and structures other than buildings for the first time.
LONG-TIME Toa Payoh resident Kenny Leck has seen many changes in the housing estate where he has been living for 28 years.
Neighbours have moved away and old blocks of flats have been demolished to make way for skyscraper blocks.
The lookout tower at Seletar Reservoir Park, built by the Public Works Department in the late 1960s, has a striking angular geometry chracteristic of the period. -- PHOTO: URA/KEVIN LEONG
Yesterday, the 30-year-old bookseller was glad to hear that one landmark in his neighbourhood will be conserved: the 25m-tall Lookout Tower in Toa Payoh Town Park.
Built in 1972, it was at one time a very popular spot for photo taking. Mr Leck said that on public holidays, his family often went to the park to take photographs, posing with the tower looming in the background.
'The tower holds fond memories for residents and it is a good move to keep it,' he said.
He was responding to the announcement that the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) is extending its conservation programme beyond buildings, to include structures such as towers, pavilions and bridges.
The structures are: the Botanic Gardens' bandstand and the Swan Lake Gazebo; MacRitchie Reservoir's water intake tower and bridge and its pavilion and bridge; the water intake tower, bridge and weir at Lower Peirce Reservoir and the lookout towers in Toa Payoh Town Park and Seletar Reservoir Park.
The six historic bridges to be conserved are Anderson, Cavenagh, Elgin, Read, Ord and Crawford.
In announcing the extension of the URA conservation programme, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said that what makes a place distinctive and memorable are not just buildings.
'It could be an elegant tower, a historic bridge or a beautiful pavilion. There are many places and landmarks that we can identify with and feel for in Singapore - places where we spent quality time with our family and friends.'
He cited the Lookout Tower in Toa Payoh Town Park, which he called a landmark that many people identify with the estate.
He was speaking at the annual URA Architectural Heritage Award ceremony held at The Sea View Clubhouse at Amber Road. The clubhouse, built in the early 1900s, is a former seaside bungalow that has been restored and is a heritage award winner this year.
More than 6,800 buildings have been conserved under the URA programme since the programme started almost 30 years ago.
The National Parks Board also has its own conservation programme, under which some of the more scenic and significant tree-lined roads in Singapore are protected.
These include Arcadia Road, Mount Pleasant Road and Mandai Road. Mature trees along these roads cannot be cut down.
In June, the Land Transport Authority announced that it is saving the oldest bus stop in Singapore - a bus stop along Old Choa Chu Kang Road that was built in the 1970s.
Yesterday, Mr Mah also announced that four black-and-white houses at Bukit Chermin in Telok Blangah will also be conserved. These were built in the early 1900s by the then Singapore Harbour Board for its senior staff members.
The four houses, together with 25 pre-war colonial buildings that are already conserved at the Southern Ridges, can be developed for future use as hotels, restaurants, art galleries and the like.
Dr Kevin Tan, president of the Singapore Heritage Society, is pleased that the URA is now looking at individual structures for conservation. 'It is a welcome and long overdue move as these structures are important to our historical and cultural landscape,' he said.
The URA has extended its conservation efforts to cover towers, bridges and structures other than buildings for the first time.
LONG-TIME Toa Payoh resident Kenny Leck has seen many changes in the housing estate where he has been living for 28 years.
Neighbours have moved away and old blocks of flats have been demolished to make way for skyscraper blocks.
The lookout tower at Seletar Reservoir Park, built by the Public Works Department in the late 1960s, has a striking angular geometry chracteristic of the period. -- PHOTO: URA/KEVIN LEONGYesterday, the 30-year-old bookseller was glad to hear that one landmark in his neighbourhood will be conserved: the 25m-tall Lookout Tower in Toa Payoh Town Park.
Built in 1972, it was at one time a very popular spot for photo taking. Mr Leck said that on public holidays, his family often went to the park to take photographs, posing with the tower looming in the background.
'The tower holds fond memories for residents and it is a good move to keep it,' he said.
He was responding to the announcement that the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) is extending its conservation programme beyond buildings, to include structures such as towers, pavilions and bridges.
The structures are: the Botanic Gardens' bandstand and the Swan Lake Gazebo; MacRitchie Reservoir's water intake tower and bridge and its pavilion and bridge; the water intake tower, bridge and weir at Lower Peirce Reservoir and the lookout towers in Toa Payoh Town Park and Seletar Reservoir Park.
The six historic bridges to be conserved are Anderson, Cavenagh, Elgin, Read, Ord and Crawford.In announcing the extension of the URA conservation programme, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said that what makes a place distinctive and memorable are not just buildings.
'It could be an elegant tower, a historic bridge or a beautiful pavilion. There are many places and landmarks that we can identify with and feel for in Singapore - places where we spent quality time with our family and friends.'
He cited the Lookout Tower in Toa Payoh Town Park, which he called a landmark that many people identify with the estate.
He was speaking at the annual URA Architectural Heritage Award ceremony held at The Sea View Clubhouse at Amber Road. The clubhouse, built in the early 1900s, is a former seaside bungalow that has been restored and is a heritage award winner this year.
More than 6,800 buildings have been conserved under the URA programme since the programme started almost 30 years ago.
The National Parks Board also has its own conservation programme, under which some of the more scenic and significant tree-lined roads in Singapore are protected.
These include Arcadia Road, Mount Pleasant Road and Mandai Road. Mature trees along these roads cannot be cut down.
In June, the Land Transport Authority announced that it is saving the oldest bus stop in Singapore - a bus stop along Old Choa Chu Kang Road that was built in the 1970s.
Yesterday, Mr Mah also announced that four black-and-white houses at Bukit Chermin in Telok Blangah will also be conserved. These were built in the early 1900s by the then Singapore Harbour Board for its senior staff members.
The four houses, together with 25 pre-war colonial buildings that are already conserved at the Southern Ridges, can be developed for future use as hotels, restaurants, art galleries and the like.
Dr Kevin Tan, president of the Singapore Heritage Society, is pleased that the URA is now looking at individual structures for conservation. 'It is a welcome and long overdue move as these structures are important to our historical and cultural landscape,' he said.
组屋转售价指数创历史新高
Source :《联合早报》October 3, 2008
金融市场波动大，组屋转售市场依然红火。建屋发展局的预估数据显示，今年第三季组屋转售价指数上升至137.4点，已经突破1996年的最高峰，显示组屋需求仍然强劲。
建屋局在文告中指出，第三季的组屋转售价指数上扬了4.2％，比第二季的的4.5％涨幅低，显示组屋转售价格的上升幅度已经放缓。
将建在宏茂桥52街的Park Central@AMK私人组屋，上个月中开始让申请者陆续选购，四房式单位至今已销售一空，五房式售出超过一半。售价最高的20个顶楼单位也都已找到买家。（档案照片）
当局将增建组屋 并继续推出私人组屋
建屋局也表示，当局将增加组屋的供应。今年首9个月，建屋局推出了5000间预购组屋，由于市场需求强劲，该局未来3个月将在榜鹅、盛港及义顺推出3400间预购组屋。
另一方面，建屋局继续通过设计、兴建和销售计划（Design, Build and Sell Scheme，简称DBSS）下推出私人组屋。建屋局至今已经推出了6个DBSS地段。除了分别在6月和8月推出四美和大巴窑的地段，建屋局昨天也宣布在今年第四季，推出勿洛的DBSS地段。
组屋转售价指数在1996年房屋市场红火时高达136.9点。今年7月，一些市场人士已经预测组屋转售价会在第三季，突破这个历来最高点。
受访的房地产经纪表示，尽管受到美国金融危机影响，公共住屋的需求仍然相当强劲。
博纳集团（PropNex）总裁伊斯迈今年7月已经预测组屋转售价会在今年内创下历史新高。
他指出，组屋转售价过去九个月已经上涨了12.4％，而他预测组屋转售价今年会取得15％的增长。
博纳总裁：明年走势还会强劲
伊斯迈认为，组屋市场明年的走势还会保持强劲。这是因为设计、兴建和销售计划下兴建的组屋和预购组屋需要一段时间才能进入市场。
ERA房地产公司助理副总裁林东荣指出，新公民和永久居民的人数增加，也是促使组屋价格上涨的因素。
他也预测在DBSS计划下推出的新单位，将受到买主的欢迎。
房地产经纪认为，组屋转售价格将继续上升，但步伐会开始放缓。伊斯迈说，组屋的溢价（cash-over-valuation）减少，其实是促使组屋转售价指数上涨幅度微减的原因。
林东荣则认为，随着建屋局兴建更多组屋，有意购买组屋的国人将有更多选择，转售价上涨的幅度会开始放缓。
金融市场波动大，组屋转售市场依然红火。建屋发展局的预估数据显示，今年第三季组屋转售价指数上升至137.4点，已经突破1996年的最高峰，显示组屋需求仍然强劲。
建屋局在文告中指出，第三季的组屋转售价指数上扬了4.2％，比第二季的的4.5％涨幅低，显示组屋转售价格的上升幅度已经放缓。
将建在宏茂桥52街的Park Central@AMK私人组屋，上个月中开始让申请者陆续选购，四房式单位至今已销售一空，五房式售出超过一半。售价最高的20个顶楼单位也都已找到买家。（档案照片）当局将增建组屋 并继续推出私人组屋
建屋局也表示，当局将增加组屋的供应。今年首9个月，建屋局推出了5000间预购组屋，由于市场需求强劲，该局未来3个月将在榜鹅、盛港及义顺推出3400间预购组屋。
另一方面，建屋局继续通过设计、兴建和销售计划（Design, Build and Sell Scheme，简称DBSS）下推出私人组屋。建屋局至今已经推出了6个DBSS地段。除了分别在6月和8月推出四美和大巴窑的地段，建屋局昨天也宣布在今年第四季，推出勿洛的DBSS地段。
组屋转售价指数在1996年房屋市场红火时高达136.9点。今年7月，一些市场人士已经预测组屋转售价会在第三季，突破这个历来最高点。
受访的房地产经纪表示，尽管受到美国金融危机影响，公共住屋的需求仍然相当强劲。
博纳集团（PropNex）总裁伊斯迈今年7月已经预测组屋转售价会在今年内创下历史新高。
他指出，组屋转售价过去九个月已经上涨了12.4％，而他预测组屋转售价今年会取得15％的增长。
博纳总裁：明年走势还会强劲
伊斯迈认为，组屋市场明年的走势还会保持强劲。这是因为设计、兴建和销售计划下兴建的组屋和预购组屋需要一段时间才能进入市场。
ERA房地产公司助理副总裁林东荣指出，新公民和永久居民的人数增加，也是促使组屋价格上涨的因素。
他也预测在DBSS计划下推出的新单位，将受到买主的欢迎。
房地产经纪认为，组屋转售价格将继续上升，但步伐会开始放缓。伊斯迈说，组屋的溢价（cash-over-valuation）减少，其实是促使组屋转售价指数上涨幅度微减的原因。
林东荣则认为，随着建屋局兴建更多组屋，有意购买组屋的国人将有更多选择，转售价上涨的幅度会开始放缓。
私宅价格开始下滑
Source :《联合早报》October 3, 2008
我国私人住宅价格终于抵不住来自美国金融风暴的压力，私宅价格指数在连续上涨了17个季度，或四年多后，首次下滑。分析师表示，这只是一个开始，并预计未来几个月，本地私宅价格的下跌幅度将会扩大。
市区重建局公布的第三季初步预估数字显示，本地私宅价格指数下跌了1.8％，由177.5点微跌至174.3点。这是本地楼市自2004年第一季以来，首个呈现跌幅的季度。尽管楼市已在去年第四季开始趋软，但第二季的私宅价格指数仍上扬0.2％。
我国私人住宅价格终于抵不住来自美国金融风暴的压力，私宅价格指数扭转四年多来的涨势，首次下跌。
莱坊(Knight Frank)研究部主管麦俊荣说：“自2007下半年以来，投资者情绪一再受打击，进而使私宅交易量直线下降。美国金融和经济问题越来越严重，整体私宅价格下滑是迟早的事。”
他认为，私宅价格至少在未来12个月里将持续下跌，今年下半年的跌幅还可能“侵蚀”掉上半年所取得的3.9％增幅，使今年全年的价格较去年横摆。
卓登国际(Chesterton International)研究部主管陈瑞谨则指出，过去两个多星期暴发的美国金融海啸重重打击了市场情绪，即将在本月底公布的实际完整数据可能要比预估数据来得低。预估数字是根据每一季的前10个星期呈交的房屋转让禁令(caveats)中的交易价格，再加上新销售的单位来统计。市建局将在本月24日公布完整数据。
过去三个月，一般代表中档私宅的其他中央区（RCR）楼价，跌幅最大，退低2.1％，而反映高档私宅市场，位于第9、10、11邮区，以及新市区和圣淘沙的核心中央区（CCR），屋价则退低2％。唯一出现涨幅的为反映大众私宅市场的中央区以外（OCR）屋价，在组屋短缺以及转售价持续攀升的情况下获得支撑，微涨了0.1％。
相比之下，今年第二季，只有核心中央区的私宅价格退低0.1％，其他中央区和中央区以外则分别上涨0.7％和0.9％。
为了更准确地反映房地产市况，市建局自2006年第四季起，也提供全岛按三大区块细分、搜集的私人房产数据。
虽然第三季总共售出的新单位有1500至1600个，与第二季的1525个单位不相上下，分析师解释，除了农历七月的楼市淡季外，整体私宅价格指数呈现负增长主要是因为一些发展商以较低价格来推出新项目，而一些二手单位也以较低价格成交。
争取到不错销售成绩的莉雅苑（Livia）、Clover by the Park、The Concourse Skyline和达高轩(Dakota Residences)等都是以较低的平均尺价售出。
其中，鸿福集团的The Concourse Skyline，推出的90个单位成功售出了63个，售价介于每平方英尺1500至1800元之间，略低于目前金融区住宅的1800元至3300元平均尺价。以每平方英尺970元来推出达高轩也比它原本瞄准的每平方英尺1000元至1100元来得低。
眼见新项目身价被打折扣，一些看淡楼市的投资者也开始脱售手上未完工或刚完工的单位。例如去年“炒气”最旺的项目滨海舫(The Sail@Marina Bay)，今年以来就有约50个单位易主，一些单位的转售价要比去年高峰期来得低20％左右。
进入第四季，世邦魏理仕（CBRE）执行董事李晓和表示，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）清盘加上美国国际集团(AIG)面对财务危机，使市场信心重创，私宅价格正面对极大的压力，售价和销售额将进一步下降。
他说：“不过，如果市场期待以久的项目如Marina Bay Suites、升涛湾的Sentosa Quayside和汤申路的The Arte等被推出市场，可能会让市场恢复一些生气。”
分析师：楼价不会跳水
虽然私人住宅价格已开始下跌，但分析师预计本地楼价不会跳水。
1997年暴发亚洲金融危机时，本地楼价猛跌40％，但分析师认为，这样的情况预料不会在这一轮下跌周期里重演。论供应和房贷负债比率，这一轮的下调较接近2000年第三季至2004年第一季的低潮期，整体价格跌幅可能相近当时的约20％。
第一太平戴维斯(Savills)行销与业务开发主管邱瑞荣认为，组屋需求依然强劲，供应又短缺，而转售价已经达到每平方英尺500元，给予大众化私宅支撑，价格下跌幅度预料不会太大，而中高档私宅方面，由于大发展商在去年已锁定了丰厚的利润，有能力持守，屋价的下跌幅度也不会因供不应求而猛泻。
卓登国际研究部主管陈瑞谨也认为，本地楼价将会有个软着落，价格将尾随经济走势波动，即使在最糟的情况下，本地楼价也只会失去去年全年的涨幅。不过，这样的情况只有在全球经济大萧条、又有银行倒闭、本地企业大规模裁员、房贷利率大幅度飙升的情况下才会发生。去年，本地的高档豪宅价格一口气暴涨了33％，创下历史新高。
房地产类股跌至三年半来最低
私宅价格指数扭转四年多来的涨势，首次下跌，拖累房地产类股在昨天的交易中下跌至近三年半以来的最低水平。
反映本地房地产关联股走势的富时海峡时报房地产控股与发展指数（FTSE ST Real Estate Index）昨天下跌5.08％，至462.62点，是2005年4月18日以来的最低水平。该指数是从今年初867.19点猛跌47％，要比海峡时报指数今年至今的32％跌幅来得大。
相比去年6月21日的1044.71点历来最高水平，该指数则下滑了56％。
在昨天的交易中，我国目前三家最大的房地产上市公司都一度下跌至近三年半以来的最低水平。
老大嘉德置地（CapitaLand）的股价昨天曾一度下滑4.6％，但在闭市前回弹，最后以每股3.04元收市，跌幅为0.7％。老二城市发展（CDL）的股价则一度下挫7.8％，并以每股8.37元闭市，下跌4.8％。老三吉宝置业（Keppel Land）的股价曾在交易中退低4.6％，但最后以每股2.75元收场，跌幅为2.8％。
莱坊研究部主管麦俊荣预计，本地楼市的跌势将持续至少一年，并表示那些手头上仍有未推出项目的发展商应趁还能赚取一些利润的时候尽快发售，否则可能得等上一段很长的时间。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的分析师则表示，虽然许多发展商和业主还有持守的能力，至今仍等待本地楼市回稳，但市场信心已被近期的美国金融海啸给重折，接下来还得面对更多大风浪，比如大量新供应、前来我国公干的外来专才将减少、大规模裁员和环球资产减值等，因此给予房地产关联股“不如大盘（underweight）”的评级。
这名分析师在星期二发表的一份报告中也指出，自5月以来，本地发展商的经商环境急转直下，不但得应付疲弱需求，还得承担更高的建筑成本以及面对更吃紧的信贷环境。分析师预计，发展商接下来将被信贷短缺以及更高的借贷成本困扰，资产价值也将减值，进一步把股价推下楼。
不是所有市场人士都对本地发展商感悲观，星展唯高达（DBS Vickers）的分析师表示，相比过去涨势扭转的情况，私宅价格指数这一次的跌幅相对小许多。1996年，楼价在一个季度退低7.9％，而在2000年第三季，楼价也从第二季的1.4％增长下滑，报2.7％的跌幅。
虽然认为屋价将在今年和明年下跌，但预计今年的跌幅将限制在单位数。分析师指出，带动下跌的主要是高档私宅的售价，但在组屋售价仍取得增长的支撑下，大众化私宅屋价预计将持稳。
我国私人住宅价格终于抵不住来自美国金融风暴的压力，私宅价格指数在连续上涨了17个季度，或四年多后，首次下滑。分析师表示，这只是一个开始，并预计未来几个月，本地私宅价格的下跌幅度将会扩大。
市区重建局公布的第三季初步预估数字显示，本地私宅价格指数下跌了1.8％，由177.5点微跌至174.3点。这是本地楼市自2004年第一季以来，首个呈现跌幅的季度。尽管楼市已在去年第四季开始趋软，但第二季的私宅价格指数仍上扬0.2％。
我国私人住宅价格终于抵不住来自美国金融风暴的压力，私宅价格指数扭转四年多来的涨势，首次下跌。莱坊(Knight Frank)研究部主管麦俊荣说：“自2007下半年以来，投资者情绪一再受打击，进而使私宅交易量直线下降。美国金融和经济问题越来越严重，整体私宅价格下滑是迟早的事。”
他认为，私宅价格至少在未来12个月里将持续下跌，今年下半年的跌幅还可能“侵蚀”掉上半年所取得的3.9％增幅，使今年全年的价格较去年横摆。
卓登国际(Chesterton International)研究部主管陈瑞谨则指出，过去两个多星期暴发的美国金融海啸重重打击了市场情绪，即将在本月底公布的实际完整数据可能要比预估数据来得低。预估数字是根据每一季的前10个星期呈交的房屋转让禁令(caveats)中的交易价格，再加上新销售的单位来统计。市建局将在本月24日公布完整数据。
过去三个月，一般代表中档私宅的其他中央区（RCR）楼价，跌幅最大，退低2.1％，而反映高档私宅市场，位于第9、10、11邮区，以及新市区和圣淘沙的核心中央区（CCR），屋价则退低2％。唯一出现涨幅的为反映大众私宅市场的中央区以外（OCR）屋价，在组屋短缺以及转售价持续攀升的情况下获得支撑，微涨了0.1％。
相比之下，今年第二季，只有核心中央区的私宅价格退低0.1％，其他中央区和中央区以外则分别上涨0.7％和0.9％。
为了更准确地反映房地产市况，市建局自2006年第四季起，也提供全岛按三大区块细分、搜集的私人房产数据。
虽然第三季总共售出的新单位有1500至1600个，与第二季的1525个单位不相上下，分析师解释，除了农历七月的楼市淡季外，整体私宅价格指数呈现负增长主要是因为一些发展商以较低价格来推出新项目，而一些二手单位也以较低价格成交。
争取到不错销售成绩的莉雅苑（Livia）、Clover by the Park、The Concourse Skyline和达高轩(Dakota Residences)等都是以较低的平均尺价售出。
其中，鸿福集团的The Concourse Skyline，推出的90个单位成功售出了63个，售价介于每平方英尺1500至1800元之间，略低于目前金融区住宅的1800元至3300元平均尺价。以每平方英尺970元来推出达高轩也比它原本瞄准的每平方英尺1000元至1100元来得低。
眼见新项目身价被打折扣，一些看淡楼市的投资者也开始脱售手上未完工或刚完工的单位。例如去年“炒气”最旺的项目滨海舫(The Sail@Marina Bay)，今年以来就有约50个单位易主，一些单位的转售价要比去年高峰期来得低20％左右。
进入第四季，世邦魏理仕（CBRE）执行董事李晓和表示，雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）清盘加上美国国际集团(AIG)面对财务危机，使市场信心重创，私宅价格正面对极大的压力，售价和销售额将进一步下降。
他说：“不过，如果市场期待以久的项目如Marina Bay Suites、升涛湾的Sentosa Quayside和汤申路的The Arte等被推出市场，可能会让市场恢复一些生气。”
分析师：楼价不会跳水
虽然私人住宅价格已开始下跌，但分析师预计本地楼价不会跳水。
1997年暴发亚洲金融危机时，本地楼价猛跌40％，但分析师认为，这样的情况预料不会在这一轮下跌周期里重演。论供应和房贷负债比率，这一轮的下调较接近2000年第三季至2004年第一季的低潮期，整体价格跌幅可能相近当时的约20％。
第一太平戴维斯(Savills)行销与业务开发主管邱瑞荣认为，组屋需求依然强劲，供应又短缺，而转售价已经达到每平方英尺500元，给予大众化私宅支撑，价格下跌幅度预料不会太大，而中高档私宅方面，由于大发展商在去年已锁定了丰厚的利润，有能力持守，屋价的下跌幅度也不会因供不应求而猛泻。
卓登国际研究部主管陈瑞谨也认为，本地楼价将会有个软着落，价格将尾随经济走势波动，即使在最糟的情况下，本地楼价也只会失去去年全年的涨幅。不过，这样的情况只有在全球经济大萧条、又有银行倒闭、本地企业大规模裁员、房贷利率大幅度飙升的情况下才会发生。去年，本地的高档豪宅价格一口气暴涨了33％，创下历史新高。
房地产类股跌至三年半来最低
私宅价格指数扭转四年多来的涨势，首次下跌，拖累房地产类股在昨天的交易中下跌至近三年半以来的最低水平。
反映本地房地产关联股走势的富时海峡时报房地产控股与发展指数（FTSE ST Real Estate Index）昨天下跌5.08％，至462.62点，是2005年4月18日以来的最低水平。该指数是从今年初867.19点猛跌47％，要比海峡时报指数今年至今的32％跌幅来得大。
相比去年6月21日的1044.71点历来最高水平，该指数则下滑了56％。
在昨天的交易中，我国目前三家最大的房地产上市公司都一度下跌至近三年半以来的最低水平。
老大嘉德置地（CapitaLand）的股价昨天曾一度下滑4.6％，但在闭市前回弹，最后以每股3.04元收市，跌幅为0.7％。老二城市发展（CDL）的股价则一度下挫7.8％，并以每股8.37元闭市，下跌4.8％。老三吉宝置业（Keppel Land）的股价曾在交易中退低4.6％，但最后以每股2.75元收场，跌幅为2.8％。
莱坊研究部主管麦俊荣预计，本地楼市的跌势将持续至少一年，并表示那些手头上仍有未推出项目的发展商应趁还能赚取一些利润的时候尽快发售，否则可能得等上一段很长的时间。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的分析师则表示，虽然许多发展商和业主还有持守的能力，至今仍等待本地楼市回稳，但市场信心已被近期的美国金融海啸给重折，接下来还得面对更多大风浪，比如大量新供应、前来我国公干的外来专才将减少、大规模裁员和环球资产减值等，因此给予房地产关联股“不如大盘（underweight）”的评级。
这名分析师在星期二发表的一份报告中也指出，自5月以来，本地发展商的经商环境急转直下，不但得应付疲弱需求，还得承担更高的建筑成本以及面对更吃紧的信贷环境。分析师预计，发展商接下来将被信贷短缺以及更高的借贷成本困扰，资产价值也将减值，进一步把股价推下楼。
不是所有市场人士都对本地发展商感悲观，星展唯高达（DBS Vickers）的分析师表示，相比过去涨势扭转的情况，私宅价格指数这一次的跌幅相对小许多。1996年，楼价在一个季度退低7.9％，而在2000年第三季，楼价也从第二季的1.4％增长下滑，报2.7％的跌幅。
虽然认为屋价将在今年和明年下跌，但预计今年的跌幅将限制在单位数。分析师指出，带动下跌的主要是高档私宅的售价，但在组屋售价仍取得增长的支撑下，大众化私宅屋价预计将持稳。
Green Light For Dorm Plans
Source : The Straits Times, Oct 4, 2008
Separate access road and noise and security measures will address residents' concerns
PLANS for a dormitory to house foreign workers in Serangoon Gardens will go ahead, despite unhappiness expressed earlier by some residents there.
But in a nod to their concerns, the Ministry of National Development (MND) announced yesterday that measures would be taken to minimise disruption in the area.
ST PHOTO: DESMOND WEE
For starters, no more than 600 foreigners - generally factory workers in the IT and electronics industries in Ang Mo Kio - will be housed at the dormitory, which will be up within a year.
An earlier feasibility study had shown that the premises of the former Serangoon Gardens Technical School could hold up to 1,000 workers.
An access road to the building will also be built, so buses transporting the workers to and from their 'home' will not wind through the middle-class estate, which already has traffic congestion problems.
Once the road, which leads only to the dormitory, is built, the buses will enter the compound via a slip lane on the Central Expressway and exit through a new road leading to Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1.
To keep the workers from disturbing the estate's residents, the dormitory operator will have to implement noise-control, security and other measures.
The facility will also have adequate amenities, including provision shops, so workers will have little reason to leave it.
Finally, the site area will be reduced, setting it further back from homes along Burghley Drive and giving residents there an additional buffer from noise.
Announcing these measures yesterday, Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan said they would ensure that the dormitory would not create a 'huge impact'.
The measures are a result of discussions between the ministry, the Member of Parliament for the area, Mrs Lim Hwee Hua, and grassroots leaders, he said.
A majority of residents contacted yesterday said they had expected the plan to go ahead, but that the measures went some way to address their concerns.
Their reaction was a far cry from that of a month ago, when plans for the dormitory first made the news.
The residents raised an uproar, collecting more than 1,600 signatures from among the more than 4,000 households in the estate, firing letters to the press and protesting vociferously in a meeting with their Members of Parliament.
They said that allowing large numbers of foreign workers into the area could lead to a spike in crime, drunken and disorderly behaviour and traffic congestion, and that the value of their properties would be hit.
The issue also spiralled into a national debate of sorts, with residents and those who supported keeping foreign workers away from population centres on one side, and those who cried 'discrimination!' on the other.
Yesterday, Mr Mah reiterated that the need for temporary dormitory spaces was pressing and added that other sites - fewer than 10 - would be released within a month. No details were given on their locations but a feasibility study will be done for each before the MND goes to grassroots leaders for their feedback.
In the meantime, Mr Mah said, the Government was working hard at getting permanent dormitories in Chua Chu Kang and Lim Chu Kang ready.
There were 577,000 foreign workers here last year, up from 475,000 in 2006.
Speaking to reporters yesterday, Mrs Lim conceded that some Serangoon Gardens residents would be disappointed by the decision, but emphasised that the measures had been taken to address their concerns.
She said it was 'no trivial matter' to create a new access road and that it was a 'substantial revision'.
Ms Sujata Jayaram, 43, who chairs the estate's Chartwell neighbourhood committee, said there were 'mixed feelings' but that residents were pleased with the infrastructure arrangement.
Another Burghley Drive resident, Madam S. Raja, 69, said she was glad that the road would not be clogged with traffic. Calling the decision 'a compromise', she said: 'We will cross the bridge when we come to it. At the moment, it's okay.'
Separate access road and noise and security measures will address residents' concerns
PLANS for a dormitory to house foreign workers in Serangoon Gardens will go ahead, despite unhappiness expressed earlier by some residents there.
But in a nod to their concerns, the Ministry of National Development (MND) announced yesterday that measures would be taken to minimise disruption in the area.
ST PHOTO: DESMOND WEEFor starters, no more than 600 foreigners - generally factory workers in the IT and electronics industries in Ang Mo Kio - will be housed at the dormitory, which will be up within a year.
An earlier feasibility study had shown that the premises of the former Serangoon Gardens Technical School could hold up to 1,000 workers.
An access road to the building will also be built, so buses transporting the workers to and from their 'home' will not wind through the middle-class estate, which already has traffic congestion problems.
Once the road, which leads only to the dormitory, is built, the buses will enter the compound via a slip lane on the Central Expressway and exit through a new road leading to Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1.
To keep the workers from disturbing the estate's residents, the dormitory operator will have to implement noise-control, security and other measures.The facility will also have adequate amenities, including provision shops, so workers will have little reason to leave it.
Finally, the site area will be reduced, setting it further back from homes along Burghley Drive and giving residents there an additional buffer from noise.
Announcing these measures yesterday, Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan said they would ensure that the dormitory would not create a 'huge impact'.
The measures are a result of discussions between the ministry, the Member of Parliament for the area, Mrs Lim Hwee Hua, and grassroots leaders, he said.
A majority of residents contacted yesterday said they had expected the plan to go ahead, but that the measures went some way to address their concerns.
Their reaction was a far cry from that of a month ago, when plans for the dormitory first made the news.
The residents raised an uproar, collecting more than 1,600 signatures from among the more than 4,000 households in the estate, firing letters to the press and protesting vociferously in a meeting with their Members of Parliament.
They said that allowing large numbers of foreign workers into the area could lead to a spike in crime, drunken and disorderly behaviour and traffic congestion, and that the value of their properties would be hit.
The issue also spiralled into a national debate of sorts, with residents and those who supported keeping foreign workers away from population centres on one side, and those who cried 'discrimination!' on the other.
Yesterday, Mr Mah reiterated that the need for temporary dormitory spaces was pressing and added that other sites - fewer than 10 - would be released within a month. No details were given on their locations but a feasibility study will be done for each before the MND goes to grassroots leaders for their feedback.
In the meantime, Mr Mah said, the Government was working hard at getting permanent dormitories in Chua Chu Kang and Lim Chu Kang ready.
There were 577,000 foreign workers here last year, up from 475,000 in 2006.
Speaking to reporters yesterday, Mrs Lim conceded that some Serangoon Gardens residents would be disappointed by the decision, but emphasised that the measures had been taken to address their concerns.
She said it was 'no trivial matter' to create a new access road and that it was a 'substantial revision'.
Ms Sujata Jayaram, 43, who chairs the estate's Chartwell neighbourhood committee, said there were 'mixed feelings' but that residents were pleased with the infrastructure arrangement.
Another Burghley Drive resident, Madam S. Raja, 69, said she was glad that the road would not be clogged with traffic. Calling the decision 'a compromise', she said: 'We will cross the bridge when we come to it. At the moment, it's okay.'
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
.jpg)
