Monday, January 5, 2009

初步数据显示十年最大跌幅 私宅价格上季落5.7%

Source : 《联合早报》January 3, 2009

全球金融大海啸以雷霆万钧之势袭来,让原本已经相当脆弱的楼市终于在去年底垮下。最新的官方数据显示,我国私宅价格在去年第四季下跌了5.7%,是过去十年来跌幅最大的一个季度。

根据市区重建局的初步数据,新加坡私宅价格指数连续第二个季度下滑,自去年第三季下跌2.4%后,又于第四季滑落5.7%,由173.3点跌至163.4点。

这不但将2008年上半年的3.9%涨幅一笔勾销,也跌穿2007年第四季的水平。这意味,2008年全年的私宅价格下跌了4.3%。

昨天发表的初步数字只是根据去年第四季首十个星期的成交量计算出来的数据,有市场人士认为,本月23日发表的完整数据,跌幅将更惨重。

卓登新达国际(Chesterton Suntec International)研究部主管陈瑞谨说:“从我们知道的一些12月份的交易量来推测,完整数据可能比初步数据还要糟2、3%。”

受访的房屋经纪透露,去年9月过后发生的一连串金融事件不但导致雷曼兄弟、美林集团、AIG等金融巨人陷入危机,各国政府纷纷拨出数千亿元来救援,也引发全球金融大海啸,导致全球股市大崩跌,连新加坡也陷入技术性经济衰退。

在整个楼市的信心塌下后,卖家纷纷调低期望,一些急着卖房的人因为担心楼价继续插水,甚至不惜一口气降价10%、20%来吸引买家进场,带动第四季的楼价显著下滑。

莱坊(KnightFrank)研究部主管麦俊荣指出,去年第四季的跌幅相信主要来自二手市场,因为发展商大多仍按兵不动,并没有大动作地推出新项目,或大幅度削减楼价。

在二手市场中,又以未完工的新公寓价格跌得更为惨重,于第三季和第四季分别下滑10.6%和7.5%。

麦俊荣透露,以超级豪华公寓Ardmore II来说,2007年第四季的转售中位价为每平方英尺3000元,到了去年第四季却降至每平方英尺2000元。至于位于升涛湾的The Azure,转售价格也由去年第二和第三季的每平方英尺1700元,跌至去年第四季的每平方英尺1200元。

麦俊荣说:“这可能是因为一些投机者急着在项目取得临时入伙证之前赶紧将房子脱手。也可能是有些买家陷入财务困境,宁可降价来减少风险。”

高档领域的“炒气”一直都较为严重,所以也在过去几个月来较显著下跌。

核心中央地区公寓 价格上季下跌6.3%

根据市区重建局昨天发表的数据,代表高档领域的核心中央地区(CCR)公寓价格在去年第四季下跌了6.3%。代表中档领域的其余中央地区(RCR),价格也下跌了5.5%。这比第三季的2.7%和2.4%跌幅明显加快,带动2008年一整年下跌了5.5%和4.1%。

第一太平戴维斯(Savills)行销与业务开发主管邱瑞荣说:“我比较惊讶的是,就连表现一直不错的大众化公寓价格也无法幸免,在第四季相当明显下跌。”

代表大众化领域的中央区以外(OCR)公寓价格在去年第四季下跌了4.7%,再加上第三季的1.5%跌幅,带动2008年全年下跌了1.6%。

麦俊荣说:“人们对大众化公寓的兴趣减弱,主要是因为去年9月过后的经济环境显著恶化,人们担心就业市场软化,再加上越来越难向银行借到钱,所以买家都更谨慎花钱。一些人甚至舍弃私人公寓,转而购买转售组屋。”

展望2009年,受访市场人士都不约而同地看“坏”私宅价格还会继续下跌,而且跌幅高达20%。

戴德梁行(DTZ)预测,今年的私宅价格将进一步下跌15%至20%。莱坊则预测跌幅介于13%至20%,即屋价恢复到2007年初的水平。第一太平戴维斯和世邦魏理仕(CBRE)将今年的楼价跌幅“瞄准”在10%至15%。

世邦魏理仕执行董事李晓和说:“悲观的情绪将继续笼罩市场,2009年第一季的楼市预料也会相当淡静,特别是受到农历新年庆祝活动的干扰。虽然有些发展商正筹备推出一些新项目,但它们相信还是会将注意力集中在清掉已推出的单位上。”

去年第四季组屋转售价 涨幅七季最低

Source : 《联合早报》January 3, 2009

组屋转售市场已受经济放缓冲击,去年第四季组屋转售价指数微升1.5%,涨幅是七个季度以来最低。

建屋发展局的预估数据显示,第四季组屋转售价指数上升至139.5点,增幅远比去年第三季的4.2%来得低,显示组屋转售市场已明显降温。

尽管如此,去年首三季的红火走势已为市场奠定有利基础。转售价指数在去年第三季突破1996年房屋市场红火时的136.9点高峰,这使2008全年价格涨幅有望达13.9%

组屋转售价指数自2007年以来节节攀升,前年的转售价格飙升17.5%。也就是说,组屋转售价格在过去两年来上涨了31.4%。

但美国金融海啸已导致市场情绪急转直下,我国陷入经济衰退,贸工部也再度调低今年全年经济增长预估数字。经济放缓也冲击房地产市场,去年第四季私宅价格指数再下滑5.7%,比第三季的跌幅更大。

展望今年,受访分析师认为,面对经济放缓及私宅价格下滑的双重压力,组屋转售市场也不能幸免,价格迟早下滑。

Orange Tee执行董事陈道俊说,买家支付的溢价(cash-over-valuation,COV)已在这两三个月明显减少,跌幅高达50%。他举例说,一些靠近地铁站的组屋溢价原本约2万元,现在已下跌至1万元。他估计,组屋转售价格会在今年持平或下滑5%至10%。

ERA房地产公司助理副总裁林东荣也同意,买家已变得更务实,会先以低于估价的售价试探屋主,多数交易是以估价完成,买方不必付任何溢价,或是顶多支付5000元至3万元溢价。

“组屋能卖得5万元溢价的日子已过去,例外的是那些装修完善,拥有怡人景观的组屋。”

C&H Realty执行董事庐元士认为,第四季组屋转售价已趋软,这可能是价格下滑的开始,全年组屋转售价可能下跌4%至5%。

他认为,大型组屋首当其冲,因为买家已倾向于选择四房式或更小组屋,以避免房贷负担太重。要是裁员人数增加,工作难找,更多人也会选择大屋换小屋。

博纳集团(PropNex)总裁伊斯迈则持乐观看法。他认为,虽然今年的转售价不会再以双指数增加,不过还是可能上升3%至8%。他说,组屋转售市场的需求强劲,尤其是小型组屋,全年价格增幅可能达5%至8%。

昨天推出三房式或更小组屋

另一方面,建屋局昨天推出三房式或更小组屋的季度销售计划。150间二房及三房式待售单位遍布全岛,不过主要集中在榜鹅和盛港新市镇。

公众对小型组屋反应热烈,组屋推出首天就有574份申请,每间单位平均有3.8人申购。申请截止日期是本月8日。

Some Bargains For House Hunters

Source : The Sunday Times, Jan 4, 2009

Developers cutting prices and offering discounts; some small projects on the way

The property market is off to a quiet start this year, with some developers even closing their show-flats temporarily in response to dwindling crowds.

Interested property buyers can look out for three offerings from City Developments - Phase 2 of Livia in Pasir Ris, The Arte (left) in Thomson Road and the Quayside Isle in Sentosa Cove. Projects launched earlier are rolling out discounts and incentives to attract more buyers. -- PHOTO: CITY DEVELOPMENTS

But as home prices continue to fall, house hunters tempted back into the market do have some places to go shopping.

Several small developments are coming on the market, while other projects that have been launched earlier are giving discounts or other buying incentives.

In the Balestier area, developer Roxy Homes is soft-launching two freehold boutique projects this weekend - Nova 48 in Prome Road and Nova 88 in Bhamo Road, both off Balestier Road.

Nova 48 has 48 units while Nova 88 has 88. Both are priced at about $1,000 per sq ft (psf), with a one-bedroom unit of 506 sq ft in size starting at about $500,000.

Another upcoming launch is that of Alexis in Alexandra Road. The freehold development has about 300 units and is less than 10 minutes' walk to Queenstown MRT Station, according to property agents.

Indicative prices are about $900 to $1,000 psf, according to agents. The developer is offering a payment scheme similar to deferred payment, where buyers can pay 20 per cent upfront and then nothing until completion.

Closer to town, the Heritage Group is holding private previews for Vivace, a new 999-year leasehold project to be built at the former Tong Watt Mansion near Robertson Quay.

The 85-unit development has mostly small units, ranging from one-bedroom apartments of 388 sq ft in size to penthouses of 990 sq ft. Prices are understood to start at about $580,000, or about $1,500 psf.

There are also a number of developers that have cut prices or are offering carrots to buyers.

Novelty Group, for instance, has lowered the price of its Lucida project along Thomson Road. The 62-unit development was launched at close to $1,600 psf early last year, but is now selling at about $1,200 psf.

The one-bedroom units are 624 sq ft in size, while two-bedroom apartments are 1,066 sq ft.

In the East Coast, the asking price for Mountbatten Suites has fallen from $1,100 psf at its launch to over $900 psf now. The developer is reportedly offering deferred payment and absorbing stamp and legal fees.

Frasers Centrepoint is also giving renovation vouchers to buyers of its Woodsville 28 project in Potong Pasir. Two-bedroom units come with a $20,000 voucher, while buyers of a three-bedroom unit get $30,000. Prices remain at $850 psf on average for the freehold development.

For the rest of the year, interested buyers can look out for three offerings from City Developments, which is planning to launch Phase 2 of Livia in Pasir Ris, The Arte in Thomson Road, and the Quayside Isle in Sentosa Cove.

While the prices for the last two projects have yet to be finalised, prices start at $797,000 for a three-bedroom apartment at Livia.

Far East Organization is also understood to be planning to launch the latest phase of cluster houses in its Greenwood landed housing development, as well as a new 99-year leasehold project in Choa Chu Kang.

HDB Home Loan Defaults On The Rise

Source : The Sunday Times, Jan 4, 2009

Number of cases has jumped by 8,000 since year-end 2003, making up 8% of all such loans

The number of home buyers defaulting on their home loans for three months or more has risen significantly over the last five years.

Figures obtained by The Sunday Times from the Housing Board show that the number of these defaulters has jumped by about 8,000 since the end of 2003.

Also, such defaults have climbed from 5per cent to 8per cent of all HDB home loans.

The figures underscore what seems to be a growing problem. From one in 20 borrowers being in arrears, the proportion is now one in 12.

Parliament was told recently that 33,000 out of 420,000 HDB home loan borrowers were in arrears for more than three months.

When asked for historical data, HDB said that at the end of 2003, 25,000 flat owners out of the 517,300 households with HDB loans were in similar arrears.

At the end of 2002, the number was even lower - at 4per cent, or about 21,800 of the 540,000 households.

On the decreasing number of total HDB loans, market analysts say this is likely due to new rules that took effect on Jan1, 2003, which stated that those upgrading their flats for a second time, as well as all downgraders, must borrow from banks instead of the Housing Board.

HDB loans - which offer a concessionary rate - are available only for first-time buyers or first-time upgraders.

Analysts told The Sunday Times that the increase in defaulters was likely due to the fact that HDB flat prices were 'very much lower in 2003' than they were last year.

HDB flat prices have risen steadily over the last four years during Singapore's property boom to a 'new peak', said ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim.

'Incomes were also on the rise. During good times, it is possible that some home buyers overstretched in a rising market and may now be in a fix as the economy sinks into recession,' he said.

HDB flat prices enjoyed a spectacular bull run with a 17.4per cent gain in 2007, the strongest growth in a decade.

Latest estimates last Friday showed that while private property prices fell 4.3per cent last year, HDB flat prices rose a further 13.9per cent.

Property agency PropNex's chief executive officer, Mr Mohamed Ismail, said an increase in affluence and higher costs of living over the last five years could have contributed to the higher incidence of people being in arrears.

Finally, HDB rarely repossesses defaulters' flats, leaving their numbers to accumulate in the system. Some home owners in arrears can take up to a few years to pay off debts.

Still, the number of HDB home owners in trouble is clearly on the rise.

Members of Parliament interviewed confirmed the trend, noting a rise in residents seeking help for home loan problems at their Meet-the- People sessions.

Dr Teo Ho Pin, Mayor of the North West District, MP for Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC Teo Ser Luck and Aljunied GRC MP Cynthia Phua are among those who have noticed the trend.

In many cases, said Dr Teo, home owners were retrenched or had to switch to lower-paying jobs and could not maintain their loan payments.

'A lot of them are coming to me for help to find them jobs,' added Mr Teo.

The MPs pointed out HDB's various assistance measures, such as allowing for the restructuring of loans, postponing payments, and even helping borrowers to downgrade to smaller flats.

The HDB also said it has several comprehensive measures to help such cases.

Banks which give market-rate loans for HDB flat purchases say they have not yet seen a significant increase in the number of defaulters.

Maybank said there had been a slight increase 'but nothing at an alarming rate'.

OCBC and DBS said there had been no significant increase in arrears.

Mortgage consultant Dennis Ng from portal www.HousingLoanSG.com said banks generally charge defaulting home owners higher interest, but will, on a case by case basis, help those facing difficulties to restructure their home loans.

Repossession of their flats is a last resort.

Looking ahead as the recession deepens, MPs said more HDB borrowers will probably have problems paying off their mortgages.

Madam Phua said the limited supply of smaller flat types could become a problem that needs fixing quickly as families start to downgrade.

The HDB is addressing this by beefing up the supply of two- to three-room flats to around 4,000 over the next two years for lower-income families and those home owners who need to downgrade.

These, however, will be ready only in two to three years. 'We'll have to explore other options in helping such default cases in the coming year,' said Madam Phua.


Helping Home Owners

Two years ago, renovation contractor Ting Kah Ping was up to his neck in debt, owing the Housing Board more than $80,000 for his home loan. He was unable to meet the instalments.

Today, the father of four owns a flat without an outstanding loan - and he said it is thanks to the HDB.

Mr Ting, 54, and his wife bought a four-room flat in Tampines in 1998 for $112,800 but started having problems paying the instalments about five years ago.

Work as a renovation contractor was inconsistent and he was unable to service his loans regularly. He approached the HDB for help and it agreed to let him make smaller payments and, for a time, postpone his payments for half a year.

Still, despite his wife taking on part-time jobs while looking after their four children, now aged 11 to 21, they had difficulty paying their debts.

The HDB advised the couple to downgrade their flat and, earlier this year, they sold their home for $303,000. With the money, he bought a three-room home nearby and fully paid up his debt to the HDB.

'I'm just glad the HDB did not force me to give up my flat or take it back. I think banks wouldn't have had as much patience,' Mr Ting said in Mandarin.

He is one of many home owners whom the HDB hopes to help with its various initiatives.

The board will consider allowing them to pay reduced loan instalments on a temporary basis and work out a solution to their financial situation.

Owners can also sublet a room to generate income, or include working family members as joint owners to help pay for the flat.

The board may also consider providing an additional HDB loan to help owners downgrade to a smaller, more affordable unit.