Thursday, July 30, 2009

Property Developers Celebrate Tower One Topping Out

Source : The Business Times, July 30 2009

Standard Chartered, an anchor tenant, will take up 500,000 sq ft.

KEPPEL Land, Cheung Kong (Holdings) and Hongkong Land jointly celebrated the topping out of Tower One at Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC) yesterday. National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan was guest of honour at the event.

Popping the confetti: Standard Chartered is an anchor tenant and will be taking up 500,000 sq ft. The building will obtain temporary occupation permit next year

Tower One achieved a 100 per cent pre-commitment rate when it was launched in 2007. Standard Chartered Bank is an anchor tenant and will be taking up 500,000 sq ft of office space. The 33-storey building will obtain its temporary occupation permit next year.

Towers Two and Three have secured pre-commitment rates of around 45 per cent and 55 per cent respectively. This translates to a pre-commitment rate of 61 per cent for the first two phases of MBFC.

Together, the three office towers will offer about three million sq ft of prime Grade A office space. MBFC also comprises retail space and two residential towers.

There has been an increase in leasing enquiries for space at MBFC in the past few months, said Raffles Quay Asset Management general manager Wilson Kwong.

Marina Bay has attracted investments of more than $27.5 billion from both the private and public sectors so far.

Markets Could Be In For A Reality Check

Source : The Business Times, July 29 2009

Last week, property data confirmed that Q2 2009 was one of the best performing on record.

July has been a month of unusually good news. It began with the astounding jump in GDP growth figures for the second quarter, which saw economists quickly revise full-year growth estimates upwards. Then, last week, property data confirmed that Q2 2009 was one of the best performing on record, with the number of new home sales exceeding those for the whole of 2008. The Housing and Development Board’s resale price index also reached an all-time high in the quarter. Industrial production was down in June, but the NODX rose by 7.6 per cent in quarterly terms. And the Singapore stock exchange has also rebounded nicely.

But this was all news that was not quite in accord with the tone of the official outlook for the economy. After revising the 2009 growth forecast from a contraction of 6-9 per cent to 4-6 per cent, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said: “Notwithstanding the improved performance in the second quarter, the outlook for the rest of the year remains largely unchanged – of a weak recovery susceptible to downside risks.” This was attributed to the continued weakness in the global economy, with MTI citing rising unemployment and reduced household spending in the US and the euro zone. It added that the housing markets in many leading economies have yet to bottom out, while financial institutions are still in the process of deleveraging. “At this juncture, there is no evidence yet of a decisive improvement in final demand,” it added.

While the Singapore economy is very open and reliant on the global economy, it is interesting to find that the asset markets here are capable of running up far in advance of an economic recovery. There are, however, good grounds to be circumspect. One of the reasons for the increase in the GDP numbers was the spike in biomedical manufacturing output and electronics inventory restocking. MTI said both may not be sustained.

Recently, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong also drew attention to the uncertainties ahead. “For the next couple of years – 2010, 2011 – we don’t know how the world economy will be, and how that will affect us and what we can do about it,” he said. US officials have also expressed caution as to when the economic recovery will kick in. Moreover, there will be a time lag of at least a couple of quarters before a US recovery spills over into Asia.

And yet, we have this stock and property market exuberance. One of the reasons for this is simply the volume of liquidity sloshing around the world at a time when monetary policies are easy just about everywhere. But this is not a sustainable dynamic. At some point, the monetary stimuli will have to be withdrawn, and markets would need to be better supported by economic fundamentals. Market players should be wary of this. They should recognise that, at this point, they are ahead of the economic curve, and that, sooner or later, the markets will come up against a reality check.

马宝山:私宅供应足 购屋者不应贸然进场

Source : 《联合早报》July 30, 2009

国家发展部长马宝山指出,虽然政府看到本地房地产市场出现一些投机现象,但他一再保证市场上有足够的私宅供应,呼吁购屋者不应贸然进场。

他表示,若有需要,政府会在明年上半年的政府售地活动中,让“正选名单”(Confirmed List)“解冻”。

最近房地产市场旺热,价格开始节节攀升。一些新推出市场的私宅价格,已贴近2007年底高峰时期的价位。

一些房地产经纪甚至会告诉潜在买家,如果要参与发展商的预售活动,就需要提供一张“空白支票”显示自己的诚意,争取预购时自己看中的单位。

马宝山昨天早上在滨海湾金融中心(MBFC)第一商业大楼(Tower 1)的盖顶仪式后,接受媒体访问时,一再提醒购屋者要时刻警惕,做足功课,详细阅读报章、分析市区重建局的卖房数据,与分析师交谈、做到精打细算,量力而为,千万不要只听信谣言、发展商或经纪的一面之词,或只看到眼前的热卖现象,就冲动地交出空白支票。

马宝山说:“我一直告诉人们的是,不要只到示范公寓,然后带着空白支票。你目前或许负担得起,但利率会变化,如果将来利率上升,你负担得起吗?如果你或者家人失业,你还能负担吗?”

他也指出,这回房地产旺热的买气是否能持续,依然是个未知数,因为我国经济虽然放慢了下跌的步伐,但还是属于负增长。这与2007年房市旺热时不同,至少当时新加坡的经济依然取得良好增长。  马宝山说,目前政府正密切关注房市的发展,并将采取必要行动,确保炒卖活动不会导致房市泡沫的形成,但购屋者自己也必须谨慎判断。

新加坡产业发展商公会(REDAS)昨晚也表发文告,表示认同部长有关房市不应会形成房市泡沫的看法。公会指出,目前的市场上,不是所有新推出的项目都会被抢购一空,只有一些新项目基于不同理由,卖得特别好,这或许与积压需求(pent-up demand)有关。但发展商与政府一样,都有一个共同信念,就是看到一个稳步增长、稳定和可持续发展的房地产市场。

目前没出现过度炒作现象

至于政府是否会在此时推出降温措施?马宝山说,虽然政府注意到房地产市场出现了炒作现象,上回房市高峰时曾出现的“手法”现在开始出现,但他不认为那是过度炒作,因此,政府会继续关注局势的发展才决定。

在供应方面,根据市建局提供的数据,截至今年第二季,市场可供应的潜在私宅单位高达6万2350个,这些单位将从现在到2013年以后,陆续推出市场。目前,已推出市场但还未售出的单位就有3万8482个。

马宝山表示,若有必要,政府会再推出正选名单。  

政府是在去年10月底,当金融海啸席卷时,基于经济展望不佳为由,突然宣布把“正选名单”冻结。

我国政府每年会分两次公布政府售地计划,因此,今年上半年和下半年的“正选名单”都已遭“冻结”。在2001年10月至2005年上半年,政府也同样曾基于经济理由,暂停政府售地计划,整个“冬眠”长达近四年。

据了解,政府2005年下半年恢复直接招标卖地的做法(即让正选名单解冻),是因为接到市场希望有更多地皮可选购的要求。

针对马宝山昨天的谈话,市场人士看法不一。

卓登新达研究部主管陈瑞谨呼吁政府马上恢复“正选名单”。他认为,若有实际需求,没有理由不马上增加供应。因为这就可以传达一个信息,就是接下来的供应会增加。这么一来,那些投机者或许会因无法再高价转卖楼花,“捞取”较多好处,而选择离场,让那些打算自住的买家有机会买到私宅单位。

陈瑞谨说,私宅市场从今年2月开始回温至今,已连续四个月出现销售佳绩,这个月也会传出捷报,如果等到明年1月才宣布让“正选名单”解冻,恐怕为时已晚。

然而,房地产资深分析员麦俊荣却持有不同看法,他认为,政府若现在就宣布降温措施,可能会“扼杀”刚出现的复苏。他也认为,政府想对炒作投机者发出的信息是,如果情况恶化,政府是能够采取降温措施的。  

在政府组屋市场,马宝山昨天也表示,若有需求,接下来政府或许会推出更多四至五房式的组屋单位。

中国房市转趋活跃

Source : 《联合早报》July 29, 2009

一项调查显示,今年头两个月,中国的银行恢复了对房地产企业贷款等措施,令楼市转趋活跃,其中深圳上半年楼价升30%至35%,广州楼价升20%,预料下半年将继续保持活跃。

该项由香港置业国际做的调查还发现,今年上半年港人在中国购买的物业单位数目约1万1100至1万2100个,按年上升23%,涉及金额约为92亿元人民币(19亿2000万新元),增加22.6%。

广州市一处在建的商品房。调查显示,今年来广州楼价升20%,预料下半年将继续保持活跃。(新华社)

上半年购买深圳物业的港人,选择作出租投资的比率为26%,同比增加3个百分点。港人因工作(37%)及投资收租(26%)而于深圳置业,则共占63%。

与此同时,港人购买深圳物业作度假及退休用的比率,有下调的情况。

置业国际主席蔡涯棉表示,深圳、广州、上海、北京楼市已陆续回暖,因此预计港人到广东省特别是深圳、广州投资置业房地产数目,将会显著增加。

他指出,大陆楼市回暖,主要是受惠于去年底中国家推出一系列刺激楼市措施,包括放宽宏调及多次减息,令市场信心回稳。

他说,预料下半年北京的积极财政政策,将令中国经济保持动力,下半年楼价将有望持续向上,估计深圳楼价将有6%至8%升幅、广州升一成、而上海及珠三角楼价升幅为5%至7%。

“由于深圳市区土地供应严重缺乏,加上人口众多,深圳又与香港接连,这些因素均对楼价有一定支持,因此,高升幅不会造成泡沫。”蔡涯棉说。

他相信,中国政府为了实现“保八”目标,会维持适度的货币宽松政策,预料北京不会全面收紧第二套房贷。他还指出,第二套房贷政策一向存在,预计下半年银行在审批时会较严谨。

另一方面,高盛的研究报告指出,年初至今中国15个城市的楼宇销售量齐录得升幅,按年比较,中位数达1.02倍;与2007年相比,12个城市中有10个城市销售均录增长,中位数达23%。

高盛指出,于本月20日至26日的一星期内,中国15个城市中有8个城市的销售量,按周录得跌幅,中位数为-1%;按年比较,15个城市销售量则齐录升幅,中位数达116%。

平均售价方面,过去一周,10个城市之中有5个城市售价上升,中位数1%,按年比较,当中7个城市售价升幅中位数为9%。

根据戴德梁行最新的第二季度上海房地产报告显示,未来四个季度,将有130万4372平方米的大规模新增办公楼供应上市。如果项目如期进行,预计未来空置率将进一步增加。

该行指出,高企的空置率将给上海办公楼租金带来持续向下的压力。虽然经济最坏的时刻已经过去,但是甲级办公楼市场具有外生性,因此在短期内,市场需求依然鲜有起色。

住宅市场方面,戴德梁行认为,虽然全球经济仍处于低迷期,但是上海的高档住宅已开始回暖。今年4月和5月上海高档住宅成交十分活跃。

该行相信,在第三季度成交量将会较第二季度有所放缓,但仍相对活跃,并预计在第三季度高档别墅和高档公寓的价格还将有所上升。