Thursday, April 30, 2009

US Q1 GDP Tumbles

Source : The Straits Times, April 29, 2009

# US economy shrinks more severely than forecast in Q1

# Inventories plummet by record amount, exports collapse

# Consumer spending recovers after sharp declines

WASHINGTON - THE US economy contracted at a surprisingly sharp 6.1 per cent rate in the first quarter as exports and business inventories plummeted.

The drop in gross domestic product, reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, was much steeper than the 4.9 per cent annual rate expected by economists and followed a 6.3 per cent decline in the fourth quarter.

US economy fell at a 6.1 per cent pace in the first quarter of 2009, signaling little improvement in a deep recession. -- PHOTO: AFP

GDP, which measures total goods and services output within US borders, has now dropped for three straight quarters for the first time since 1974-1975.

The data came as the Federal Reserve resumed a regular two-day meeting. The Fed, which has cut interest rates to almost zero and pumped about a trillion dollars into the economy to try and break its downward spiral, is expected to leave policy unchanged at the meeting.

US stock index futures pared gains after the GDP report, while government bond prices were little changed.

'There won't be positive growth until the second half of the year probably, but the fall in the second quarter, if it's negative at all, will be far smaller,' said Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners in Greenwich Connecticut.

The advance report from the Commerce Department showed business inventories plunged by a record US$103.7 billion (S$154 billion) in the first quarter, as firms worked to reduce stocks of unsold goods in their warehouses. That sliced 2.79 percentage points from the overall GDP figure. Excluding inventories, GDP contracted 3.4 per cent.

Plummeting inventories good news
But the sharp drawdown in inventories is good news as it suggests that manufacturers and retailers have reduced the stock of unsold merchandise to manageable levels and could be instrumental in pulling the economy out of recession.

Recent manufacturing surveys by the regional Federal Reserve Banks have shown an improvement in new orders.

'We should see a diminishing effect from inventory on GDP going forward,' said Keith Hembre, chief economist at FAF Advisors in Minneapolis. -- REUTERS

Exports collapsed
EXPORTS collapsed 30 per cent, the biggest decline since 1969, after dropping 23.6 per cent in the fourth quarter. The decline in exports knocked off a record 4.06 percentage points from GDP.

Investment by businesses tumbled a record 37.9 per cent in the first quarter, while residential investment dived 38 per cent, the biggest decline since the second quarter of 1980.

However, there were some bright spots in the report. Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 2.2 per cent, after collapsing in the second half of last year.

Consumer spending was boosted by a 9.4 per cent jump in purchases of durable goods, the first advance after four quarters of decline.

The Commerce Department said the government's US$787 billion (S$1.2 billion) rescue package of spending and tax cuts, approved in February, had little impact on first-quarter GDP.

Part of the stimulus package is designed to bolster state and local and government spending, which fell at a 3.9 per cent rate in the first quarter, the largest decline since the second quarter of 1981.

A separate report showed US home loan applications fell last week to the lowest level since mid-March, even as mortgage rates clung to record lows.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its mortgage applications index, which reflects demand for both purchase loans and refinancings, fell 18.1 per cent. -- REUTERS

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