Pedra Branca: 4 Possible Outcomes

Source : TODAY, Thursday, May 22, 2008

AS HE leaves for The Hague to hear the decision on the dispute over Pedra Branca, Ambassador-At-Large Tommy Koh is crossing his fingers that a "seductive argument" by Malaysia does not find any favour with the International Court of Justice.

The Malaysian proposal, presented as a "win-win" solution, is that if it were to gain ownership of the disputed territory, it would continue to allow Singapore to operate the lighthouse on the rocky islet.

This would not be a good outcome for Singapore, but is a possibility when the verdict is delivered tomorrow.

It is one of four scenarios, sketched out by Professor Koh hours before his flight, that both countries will have to live with when the 29-year dispute comes to a close with the ICJ decision, which is expected to be reached by 6pm Singapore time.

Both countries have agreed to abide by the court's decision, but only two scenarios would be good news to Singapore.

Optimally, the ICJ will decide that Pedra Branca and two smaller maritime rocks nearby — Middle Rocks and South Ledge — which are also under contention, belong to the Republic. On the other hand, Malaysia could be awarded all three.

But a decision to award Malaysia the two small maritime features — one of which, South Ledge, is only above water during low tide — would also be a welcome scenario if Singapore is given ownership of Pedra Branca.

The latter, a granite outcrop the size of a football field, commands the eastern entrance to the Singapore Straits and is where Singapore operates the Horsburgh Lighthouse, used by the many ships that traverse one of the world's busiest shipping lanes.

"Freedom of navigation, safety of navigation are important interests for Singapore," said Prof Koh.

So, what are the chances Singapore will win?

"I'm a born optimist and I'm optimistic about the outcome, though not presumptuous nor arrogant," said the diplomat.

For its part, amid its political uncertainties, Malaysia has been exuding confidence in the run-up to tomorrow's verdict decision. And the question is whether its "seductive" proposal — one which would be hard to retract because it was made in open court, according to Prof Koh — finds favour at the Hague.

When asked by Today if he thought the ICJ might factor political implications into its decision, Prof Koh said: "Singapore hopes the judges will remain as judges and as good international lawyers and do not attempt to become good diplomats or politicians.

"I just hope they don't attempt to go for a win-win situation … it will not be a win-win outcome for us."

If it does turn out that way, Singapore personnel working on Pedra Branca will probably have to go through Malaysian immigration before setting foot on the isle. The Republic will also have to withdraw its marine policing in the surrounding waters.

Both countries have set up a joint committee to implement the ICJ's decision. Even if Singapore wins, and the status quo is maintained, issues such as the rights of Malaysian fisherman would still have to be looked into.

Singapore's most well-known diplomat does not have any inkling, however, about which way the ICJ may be leaning.

Since the count down to the verdict began last November, when the two countries spent three weeks presenting their final arguments and rebuttals at The Hague, Prof Koh has "scrupulously" been avoiding the judges of the ICJ.

"Whenever any of the judges visit Singapore, I've found excuses to be out of the country. Even if any of the 16 judges were to send me books they thought were interesting, I didn't send them any books in return," he said with a smile.

While there may be smiles for only one country tomorrow, whatever the outcome, the overwhelming feeling for the Singapore team will certainly be one of relief, said Prof Koh.

"I'll be relieved because we've been waiting for decades to bring this dispute to a resolution and put it behind us," he said.

And although he will be "disappointed" if Singapore loses, Prof Koh said he "takes comfort in the process" both neighbours have chosen: Third-party resolution for thorny bilateral issues.

"It's a victory for international law. It's good for the Asean family," he said in his inimitable diplomatic style.