En Bloc Sales Slow To A Trickle, May Pick Up Later

Source : The Business Times, September 6, 2007

Just one sale sealed in August, but some say lull presents a chance to buy

(SINGAPORE) After the breathless rush earlier in the year, there was just a single collective sale in August - that of Margate Mansion at a modest $58 million.

In contrast, the first seven months of 2007 saw a total of 62 collective sale transactions worth about $11.86 billion, based on industry figures compiled by Credo Real Estate. This reflects an average of around nine deals each month, worth almost $1.7 billion between them. The impact of the sub-prime mortgage woes in the US and the stock market rout that followed was obvious.

Credo managing director Karamjit Singh observed that the Singapore property market usually tends to take a breather in the third quarter.

But he expects the pace of collective sale transactions to pick up again in Q4 - assuming that the sub-prime crisis does not escalate further. Still, he does not expect activity to be as intense as in the first seven months of this year, before the current lull set in. 'Any recovery in land buying would be resuming from a high base. Some developers have already bought sites, so their appetites are satiated and they would need to offload some new projects before they replenish their landbanks,' Mr Singh added.

CB Richard Ellis executive director Jeremy Lake expects the number of collective sale transactions to average about two to three per month for the rest of the year. Contributing to this trend are high asking prices on part of the owners and upcoming changes to the en bloc legislation that could lengthen the gestation period before sites can be launched for tender.

Both Mr Lake and Mr Singh believe that benchmark prices may still be achieved for residential land in the months ahead. 'The critical factor will be how the end-product market fares. If developers see strong home buying at their launches, they will keep replenishing their landbanks. If not, developers may be more selective about their land acquisitions,' Mr Lake says.

DTZ Debenham Tie Leung director (investment advisory services) Shaun Poh reckons that over the next couple of months one is unlikely to see any benchmark residential land prices being achieved through en bloc sales. He felt that deals were likely to be in the $50 million to $100 million range and the buyers were likely to be smaller developers and contractors.

On a more positive note, Cushman & Wakefield managing director Donald Han felt that the current lull in the collective sales market presented buying opportunities. 'For investors who've missed out on the action earlier, especially international funds, because the pace of transactions was too quick for them to do due diligence, this is the best time to come in and negotiate - on their (buyers') terms,' Mr Han added.

Credo's Mr Singh noted that fundamentals in the property market were still very strong. 'There's still an undersupply situation, created by strong home buying since 2005 and exacerbated by the strong wave of en bloc sales which will cause a temporary withdrawal of supply as sites sold through collective sales are redeveloped. International funds are still prepared to invest in Singapore property because this place seems to have some exciting years ahead,' he said.