SINGAPORE: Private-sector economists are expecting second-quarter growth figures to come in weaker than the 8.2% estimated by the government. According to a Bloomberg poll with a dozen economists, the estimated expansion rate is 8%.
Still, there are some who think that the Q2 figures could surprise on the upside, with a stronger-than-expected showing from the services and construction sectors.
Official advance estimates place second-quarter GDP growth at 8.2%. But following the surprise drop of 7.4% in June’s industrial output, some economists say the final number could come in just a tad lower.
DBS Research is among the more bullish ones, projecting a growth rate of around 8.3%, on strength in the services and construction sectors.
“We have all underestimated the growth engines of the financial services and construction sectors,” said Irvin Seah, economist at DBS Group Research.
“For construction sector, I expect the sector to see some acceleration in growth momentum. I'm actually looking at growth of about 18.5%, up from the previously released estimate of 17.9%. Construction activities are likely to pick up from the construction of the two IRs, and the private residential projects arising from the en-bloc sales and current property market boom,” he continued.
For full-year figures, most private-sector economists forecast growth to come in at the top end, if not better than the official forecast of 5-7%.
“For full year, I expect growth to register at around 7.3%. Robust growth of about 15.8% for construction and 7% for services are more or less in the bag. The key lies in manufacturing, where I expect growth to register 8.1%. Still relatively higher, because of the support coming in from biomedical and transport engineering,” said Mr Seah.
However, there are still concerns over the outlook for the electronics sector.
At the beginning of the year, most economists had projected an electronics recovery in the third quarter, but most indicators now suggest that recovery will be slower than expected, likely to come in only at the end of the year. - CNA/ac
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