Thursday, November 8, 2007

Raffles Place Retailers Face Space Crunch, Soaring Rents

Source : The Straits Times, Nov 8, 2007

Rent may double for some, with near full occupancy and no fresh supply of space in the short term.

SOARING rents for retail office space at Raffles Place have stunned Ms Yeap Cheng Guat, the executive director of Cedele By Bakery Depot, which has two outlets in the major office hub.

‘Rents have gone up by 100 per cent. It’s that crazy,’ she said.

The bakery cafe chain has operated at Republic Plaza for about eight years now and has a newer outlet at One Raffles Quay.

Singapore’s office space crunch is spilling over to tenants like Cedele in office districts such as Raffles Place.

‘When they told me about the increase, I nearly fell off my chair,’ Ms Yeap said.

‘If my rentals rise by 100 per cent, can my food price increase by the same?

‘Then the tenant can sell only bird’s nest and abalone,’ she said, referring to expensive delicacies.

Occupancy levels for retail space such as cafes and fashion outlets in Raffles Place are close to 100 per cent.

A recent study by property consultant Cushman & Wakefield found rent rises of up to 24 per cent over the past two years in the area.

Supply of shop space is tight with no major new retail space expected for the financial district in the short term.

That means retail rents there will keep rising by another 10 to 15 per cent in the year ahead, the firm’s managing director here, Mr Donald Han, told The Straits Times. This is up from about 14 per cent in the last 12 months, he said.

The rise is relatively high, considering that rentals in the traditional shopping belt of Orchard Road have experienced single- digit rises in recent years.

Overall, rentals for prime retail space are expected to climb by 15 to 20 per cent year on year, with capital values up by 10 to 15 per cent, according to Knight Frank.

Ms Maye Kwok, 32, who sells bags and shoes from a ground-level shop at The Arcade, is convinced she will soon be paying higher rent.

‘Across the board, rents have gone up. My neighbours here have paid higher rents. I am 100 per cent sure they will raise the rent when my lease is up for revision.’
Mr Han said the office space crunch was affecting nearby retail space.

‘Most developers within the financial district prefer to maximise office use rather than retail,’ he said.

‘The irony is that when more offices are built, retail demand from the office population will grow in tandem.’

Most retail centres in Raffles Place such as OUB Centre, Raffles Xchange, One Fullerton and Republic Plaza are enjoying full occupancy.

Average gross rent for Raffles Place ground-level shops is between $18 and $35 per sq ft (psf) a month - well up from $13 to $25 psf two years ago.

Basement level space is between $12 and $25 psf a month, again well up from $9 to $18 psf two years back.

On the upper floors, which have less pedestrian traffic, rents hover between $8 and $14 psf a month, up from $6 to $9 psf a month two years ago.

As Raffles Place’s retail rents rise, several landlords have already started to either reposition their retail developments or add new retail supply, said Cushman & Wakefield.

Sino Land, the Hong Kong-based sister firm of property developer Far East Organization, recently announced plans to revamp a 26,000 sq ft retail and entertainment complex at Clifford Pier, a site that it had obtained late last year.
At OUB Centre, an additional 32,000 sq ft of retail space will be added, said Cushman & Wakefield.

It noted that newly retrofitted projects like the Market Street carpark have done well, with space nearly fully leased out at $10 to $25 psf a month.

‘The retail market situation in Raffles Place is coming to a level where nothing is available. This sub-market is being ignored when there is demand,’ said Mr Han.

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Banks Don't Rule Out Further CDO Losses

Source : The Business Times, November 8, 2007

Analysts applaud OCBC's move, say future write-backs a possibility

Local banks are sticking to their positions for now, but concede that more charges could stem from losses arising from collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). This comes on the heels of OCBC's move to write down $221 million of its CDO holdings on Tuesday.

DBS Bank told BT yesterday that currently, there will be no changes to its positions. But a spokesperson added: 'As with any financial institution, it is certainly possible that further market changes may result in charges or write-backs to our positions.' She said that the bank had been conservative in how it derives market valuations and ascertains provisions for its CDOs.

United Overseas Bank also said that the necessary provisions for its CDO portfolio had already been taken in its third quarter results. 'In any case, we constantly review our investment portfolio on our own and will make any necessary adjustment when required,' a bank spokesperson told BT.

On Tuesday, OCBC announced that it had to write down $221 million of its CDO holdings, slashing the value of its portfolio of CDOs, which comprise pools of asset-backed securities (ABS), from $270 million to just $48 million.

OCBC's aggressive write-downs are the largest of the three local banks. Late last month, DBS Group made $70 million in allowances for its $275 million in CDOs that were exposed to US sub-prime assets, while UOB's total provision stands at $55 million so far.

Investors, probably spooked by the prospect of more writedowns, sent all bank stocks lower yesterday. Shares of DBS were the worst-hit of all three banks, shedding 50 cents or 2.3 per cent to $21, while UOB ended 10 cents or 0.5 per cent lower at $20.50. OCBC closed 10 cents or 1.1 per cent down to $8.80.

Analysts, on the other hand, see an upside to OCBC's move. 'We view these CDO provisioning rates to be extremely conservative ... as such, we believe that there is a significant possibility of write-backs or recoveries from this source in future years,' Deutsche Bank said in a research report.

The much larger allowance also means that future earnings might not be hit by further write-downs. 'This reflected management's conservative stance and should limit future downside risks,' said a BNP research report. A Merril Lynch report also noted that 'even if the US mortgage market were to deteriorate significantly further, OCBC would not likely face any further losses'.

Despite worries about the local banks' CDO exposure, ratings services Standard & Poor's Ratings maintained their ratings on Singapore banks, stating that they have negligible exposure to the sub-prime woes in the US.

US$ Slumps As China Looks To Park Reserves Elsewhere

Source : The Business Times, November 8, 2007

Greenback is losing status as world currency, says China central bank official

THE US dollar slumped to a record low against the euro after Chinese officials signalled plans to diversify the nation's US$1.43 trillion of foreign exchange reserves in response to a falling US currency.

'We will favour stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly,' Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of China's National People's Congress, told a conference in Beijing.

The US dollar is 'losing its status as the world currency', Xu Jian, a central bank vice-director, said at the same meeting.

The US dollar fell against all 16 of the most active currencies, declining to the weakest versus the Canadian dollar since the end of a fixed exchange rate in 1950, a 26-year low against the pound and a 23-year low versus the Australian dollar.

'We're likely to see further pressure on the dollar,' said Thomas Harr, senior foreign exchange strategist in Singapore at Standard Chartered. 'The potential for diversification is quite big.'

The US currency slumped to US$1.4666 per euro, the lowest since the 13-nation currency made its debut in January 1999. The US dollar traded as low as 113.69 yen, the lowest since Oct 22. The euro was little changed at 166.87 yen.

In Singapore, the US dollar ended half a per cent lower at S$1.4412 yesterday.

Chinese investors have reduced their holdings of US Treasuries by 5 per cent to US$400 billion in the five months to August. China Investment Corp, which manages the nation's US$200 billion sovereign wealth fund, said last month that it may get more of the nation's reserves to invest to improve returns.

'The world's currency structure has changed; the dollar is losing its status as the world currency,' Mr Xu from the People's Bank of China said at the conference.

Mr Cheng, speaking to reporters after his speech, said that his comments do not mean that China will buy more euros.

Gains in the euro may be limited by speculation that European economic growth may slow, reducing the need for higher interest rates. Europe's single currency will trade at US$1.43 versus the US dollar by year-end, according to the median forecast of 42 analysts and brokerages surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The US dollar's decline helped to drive the price of crude oil to a record and gold to a 27-year high, encouraging investors to buy assets in commodity- producing nations. The US dollar's 9.8 per cent drop against the euro this year boosted the competitiveness of US exports, helping to shrink the nation's trade deficit to US$57.6 billion in August, the smallest since January.

Against the pound, the US dollar declined to US$2.0955, the lowest since May 1981. It fell to US$1.1010 per Canadian dollar. The currency slid against the Australian dollar to 93.89 US cents, the lowest since April 1984, from 92.87 US cents.

'This is an asset story and shows sentiment for the dollar continues to be quite negative,' said David Forrester, currency economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore.

The US dollar also fell as losses from sub-prime mortgage defaults added to pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower its target for the overnight lending rate between banks to 4.25 per cent next month.

'The interest-rate outlook is dragging down the dollar against major currencies such as the euro and the Australian dollar,' said Seiichiro Muta, director of foreign exchange in Tokyo at UBS AG, the world's second largest currency trader. 'I cannot see the bottom of the dollar depreciation yet.' - Bloomberg

Strata Board Not Obliged To Rule On Horizon Towers Sale By Dec 11

Source : The Straits Times, Nov 8, 2007

THE Strata Titles Board (STB) hearing the Horizon Towers sale application said yesterday that it was under no obligation to deliver its ruling before Dec 11.

That is the deadline for the estate's $500 million collective sale to Hotel Properties (HPL) and its partners.

The majority owners want approval for the sale, after it was thrown out on a technicality in August. The minority owners want it stopped.

The STB came to its decision after it took submissions from lawyers for both the majority and minority owners. The owners were asked if they considered that the STB had a legal duty to rule before Dec 11.

Both camps, after morning deliberations, said no.

But that did not sit well with the buyers. HPL group executive director Christopher Lim said it was 'surprising' the tribunal took that view as it may 'potentially scuttle' the transaction.

'We are also very disappointed that the majority sellers did not take the position that the matter be dealt with expeditiously and before Dec 11.'

Mr Lim said the buyers had made it clear during earlier hearings that the majority sellers would be in breach of contract if they did not deal with the sale expeditiously.

'As a result of these developments, we are currently reviewing our position.'

The STB did try to move the proceedings along yesterday, by rejecting a request by lawyers representing the minorities that they be allowed to cross-examine expert witnesses such as valuers. It also rejected an application from the lawyers that Mr Arjun Samtani, chairman of the first sale committee, take the stand as a witness.

The hearing continued with the cross-examination of Mr Wee Hian Siew, the former sale committee secretary, that began on Tuesday.

He was again asked why he did not notify owners of the $500 million offer and if he recalled the talks with Mr Bharat Mandloi.

The latter resigned from the first sale committee because he regarded the $500 million sale price as too low.

Mr Mandloi had told the committee that the owners might as well sell their units in the Leonie Hill estate on the open market at the same price.