Showing posts with label Overseas Market Watch / Property Investment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Overseas Market Watch / Property Investment. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Irish PM Hints At Moves Beyond Property Tax

Source : The Business Times, August 25, 2009

(DUBLIN) A tax on Irish property is not a done deal as part of efforts to squeeze the burgeoning budget deficit, Prime Minister Brian Cowen said in an interview.

'I'm not wedded to property tax,' Mr Cowen told the Sunday Independent: 'But I don't want that to be suggested that we are not prepared to take the decisions that need to be made if that is what is deemed necessary. We have very low taxes on property in this country, if any.'

Ireland's Commission on Taxation has finished a government-sponsored report on possible changes to the system of taxation starting next year and local media have reported that it has recommended introducing a property tax based on each home's value to replace a stamp duty tied to property sales.

Ireland is targeting 1.75 billion euros (S$3.6 billion) in additional tax revenues and 2.25 billion euros in spending cuts next year on top of existing measures unveiled as part of a five-year austerity plan to get its deficit, proportionately the worst on the euro zone, under control.

Mr Cowen, whose popularity levels are at record lows amid dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy, faces a slew of tests in the autumn, including a second referendum on the European Union's reform treaty, the creation of a 'bad bank' to deal with the financial crisis and another tough budget.

'There are a lot of difficult political decisions coming down the line,' he said in a rare interview.

Mr Cowen's Fianna Fail party suffered a rout in local and European elections and two parliamentary deputies recently jumped ship in protest over hospital cuts but the 49-year-old said he was confident he had the support of his colleagues.

'The party knows there is a job of work to be done by government. People are going to have their say in terms of what the position should be,' Mr Cowen said.

'But at the end of the day, we have to close the gap between what taxes are coming in and what is being spent. If we don't do that, we put the whole future at risk.' - Reuters

HK Home Sales This Year Past '08 Total?

Source : The Business Times, August 25, 2009

(HONG KONG) Hong Kong's sales of new private homes in the first eight months of 2009 may have exceeded those during all of last year, Centaline Property Agency Ltd said.

The number of new non-government-built residential units changing hands may have risen to 10,926 from 9,955 for the whole of 2008, Centaline, one of the city's biggest real estate agencies, said in a report on Sunday.

Last year's figure was the lowest since 1996, the realtor said in January.

Home sales in Hong Kong, where luxury residences are Asia's second-most expensive, are being fuelled by record low mortgage rates and near-zero interest payments on bank deposits.

Victor Li, deputy chairman of Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd, the city's second-largest developer by market value, said on Aug 13 that the local property market is 'healthy' and his company may raise prices if sales improve.

The value of new private homes sold may be HK$65.5 billion (S$12.2 billion) in the first eight months, 15 per cent less than the HK$77 billion for 2008, the agency said.

Total housing sales rose for the fourth month in July, Land Registry figures show. Transactions rose 62 per cent to 12,023 from July 2008.

The government agency has not published August data and does not break down deals by new or existing homes. -- Bloomberg

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Tianjin Eco-City On Track

Source : The Straits Times, Aug 24, 2009

THE global economic crisis has not derailed the progress of Tianjin eco-city, Singapore's joint venture with the northern Chinese port city of Tianjin.

The 11/2 year-old project to turn a 30 sq km barren plot of land into a buzzing, environmentally friendly city has notched 85 investment deals totalling 14 billion yuan (S$3 billion), Tianjin Mayor Huang Xingguo said at a press conference in Singapore on Monday.

The global economic crisis has not derailed the progress of Tianjin eco-city, Singapore's joint venture with the northern Chinese port city of Tianjin. --PHOTO: KEPPEL CORP

Mr Huang is part of a delegation of Chinese officials, led by China's Vice-Premier Wang Qishan, who are in Singapore for an annual series of high-level bilateral meetings. They wind up their visit today.

The next step for the eco-city is to garner more high-quality investments and to get its management software right, Singapore's National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said at a separate press conference.

'Physically, the eco-city is now beginning to take shape and form. Where before it was just barren land (full of) salt pans, I think now you'll see grass, trees (and) buildings,' said Mr Mah.

Physical hardware aside, both sides also agreed to step up cooperation on softer aspects of the development, such as sharing knowhow relating to the management of public housing.

Mr Mah and Mr Huang are both key players in the development of the Tianjin eco-city, which China and Singapore formally agreed to develop in Nov 2007. They co-chair a joint business council on cooperation between Singapore and Tianjin.

Three of the eco-city's highest-profile deals so far are with major property developers in East Asia: Japan's Mitsui Fudosan, China's Shimao Property Holdings and Taiwan's Farglory Group.

Such high-quality investments will help the eco-city meet its long-term target of creating up to 60,000 jobs over the next decade and providing homes to about 350,000 people.

Read the full story in Tuesday's edition of The Straits Times.

薪水追不上房价 中国“80后”置业难

Source : 《联合早报》August 24, 2009

28岁的郑华清最近与太太在北京五环路边买了一套70平方米的房子,25万元(人民币,下同,5万3200新元)的首付和手续费,是汇集了自己和太太过去四年里累积的积蓄,以及双方家长的“赞助”才凑成的。

近年来,在中国房地产价格涨幅领跑薪金涨幅的情况下,像郑华清夫妇这对“80后(1980年后出生)”购房新人的背后,常常有三个家庭在支撑,即:双方父母拿出首付,子女自己完成按揭,或俗称的“四加二”买房模式。

市场人士指出,促成这轮楼市异常火爆的“罪魁祸首”为宽松的信贷政策。(中新社)

以北京为例,刚毕业的大学生每个月收入为3000元左右,而新盘房价每平方米都得上万元。

即使是二手房,在北京五环以内要买一个60多平方米的两居室(即有两个睡房),至少要50多万元,而首付加上装修,没有30万元是不够的。

“啃老族”、“房奴”也是“月光族”

市场人士指出,促成这轮楼市异常火爆的“罪魁祸首”为宽松的信贷政策。(中新社)

月入6000元的郑华清告诉本报:“这么高的房价有几个不是靠父母的?即使这样,买房后,我们夫妇俩接下来20年除了是‘房奴’外,还成了‘月光族’。”

然而,不是每个“80后”都像郑华清那般幸运。家境没那么理想,又或者不想当“啃老族”的,就只好认命,选择租房来解决基本的居住问题。

来自南京的葛欣(30岁)就与当公务员的丈夫住在公租房里,去年底看到北京楼价回落时,他们开始等待时机进场,不料今年三四月份,楼市又出现快速逆转。转眼间,北京各处楼盘都上调价格,夫妇俩只好打消买房的念头。

葛欣说:“今年初我们还在四处找房子,眼见售价离我们能承担的水平越来越远,我们现在索性不看房了。”

中国国家发展改革委、国家统计局上个星期公布,7月份全国70个大中城市房屋销售价格同比上涨1.0%,涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点。这是今年以来该数据环比连续第五个月、同比连续第二个月上涨,涨幅也有逐步加大的趋势。

在北京,搜房网新盘数据监控中心的数据显示,房价在过去半年内最高涨幅达82%。在房价超出“80后”负担能力范围的情况下,北京房地产中介机构中大恒基提供的数据显示,7月份北京二手房购买人群中,80后的比例为近年来最低,仅29.63%,比2008年下降了逾10%。

房子贵得离谱不单在北京。官方数据显示,中国70个大中城市里,二手住宅售价于7月份上涨的有42个,其中涨幅最大的是深圳,达9.6%。广东省政府发展研究中心副主任李惠武本月初说,他两个月1万6000元的工资都买不起一平方米的房子。当地每平米的房价一般超过2万元。

市场人士指出,促成这轮楼市异常火爆的“罪魁祸首”为宽松的信贷政策。全球金融危机以来,中国政府鼓励银行多放贷,为市场输入“便宜”的信贷,而房价和股市的快速上扬又刺激了大量投机资金进入楼市和股市,使得中国原本今年内要放出的5万亿元的贷款“预算”,在头几个月就很快用尽。据中国媒体报道,截至今年6月,银行所放出的贷款总额已超过7万亿元。

除此之外,在中国政府动用4万亿元“保增长、扩内需”下,房地产是其中一个推动经济增长的引擎。为了刺激房地产市场,中央和地方政府,在过去一年里不断推出各种辅助政策,其中包括将新房的首付从三成减少至两成、减少购房时的印花税、减少或免去其他的房地产相关税收。

官方的上述动作是希望看到房价上升后能带动建筑业,制造更多的就业机会,进而增加消费者的信心,拉动国内消费市场。不过,在个人薪金追不上房价的情况下,高涨的房价却成了消费的最大阻力。

研究地产经济的北京资源学院企业管理学院院长阎雨受访时指出,环球和中国的经济情况其实没有太大的改善,但一些地方的楼价目前已超过2007年的高峰水平,显然,现在的房价严重偏离了正常的价值。

阎雨认为,同样类别的房子,北京的房价要比美国贵一倍以上:纽约近郊300平米的独栋别墅,现价为60至80万美元(人民币560万元),同样规格的房子在北京,却需要人民币1000万元。

虽然中国政府过去一个多月来已开始采取一些措施控制楼市火爆的情况,阎雨仍担心楼价远远超出一般市民负担能力,可能带来社会不稳定的问题。

阎雨说:“现在的社会越来越脆弱,一个小事件就可能引发国家安全问题。为确保社会和谐发展,政府有必要居安思危,采取更果断的手法。”

他指出,房地产业存在的种种腐败行为,比如相当显著比例的“灰色成本”,不仅增加了广大购房者的经济负担,也使中国房产业和社会走上畸形发展道路,肥了一些人,却苦了下一代。

动辄上百万元的房子,让“80后”望之却步。与长辈不同,“80后”已不再享有单位分房制度。此外,他们在国家经济和生活水平蒸蒸日上的环境中长大,但恐怕没想到自己踏入社会后,要进一步提高生活水平却如此困难,到了谈婚论嫁的年龄连基本住房都无法拥有。他们的自信心难免受挫,甚至感觉自己挤不进时代发展的大潮。

如果广大的“80后”长期陷入买房难的尴尬境地,这一问题有可能会和大学生、农民工就业问题一样,成为政府需要伤脑筋的又一个难题。(上篇)

绝望中突发奇想

眼见楼价直冲云霄,买房梦越来越遥不可及,一些人已到了绝望的地步,甚至认为中彩票的几率要比筹足钱买房的可能性来得高。

《京华时报》近日报道,最近北京有一名网民因没钱买房、又不想做“啃老族”而突发奇想,在论坛上发帖召集1500人,每人出100元,凑齐首付买房,然后大家通过抽奖、摇号等方式来决定房子归属。有参与者称,这比中彩票的几率大多了。

发起这个千人集资买房行动的26岁网友“可乐事多了” 说: “反正也买不起房子,何不撞一下运气?结婚也不差这100块钱。”

此外,网上目前还流行一种较为可行的购屋方式——“万人购房团”。购房团理念很简单,多人合伙买房就能跟开发商讨价还价。这样的团在北京、深圳、西安、兰州、济南都能找到。

Saturday, August 22, 2009

Sales Of Existing Homes Up In US

Source : The Business Times, August 22, 2009

Latest US Data

(Washington)SALES of existing US homes jumped more than forecast in July to the highest level in almost two years, signalling that the housing crisis that crippled the world's largest economy is easing.

HOME AND DRY - The jump of existing US homes sales to the highest level in almost two years signals that the housing crisis is easing

Purchases climbed 7.2 per cent to a 5.24 million annual rate, the most since August 2007, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) said yesterday. The gain was the biggest since records began in 1999. The median price fell 15 per cent.

'More and more buyers are becoming convinced that there is not a lot of downside left in the housing market,' said Ellen Zentner, a senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York. 'We can count on housing no longer being a drag.'

Stocks jumped and Treasury securities dropped after the report added to evidence that the housing market was turning.

Economists had forecast that existing home sales would rise to a five million annual rate, according to a Bloomberg News survey. June's pace was unrevised at 4.89 million.

Sales had reached a 4.49 million pace in January, their lowest level since comparable records began in 1999.

Purchases of existing homes increased 5 per cent compared with a year earlier. The median price dropped to US$178,400 from US$210,100 in July 2008.

The number of previously owned unsold homes on the market jumped 7.3 per cent to 4.09 million in July, a 'notable' increase, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. At the current sales pace, it would take 9.4 months to sell those houses, the same as in June.

A seven months' supply is usually consistent with stabilisation in prices, Mr Yun said last month.

The share of homes sold as foreclosures or otherwise distressed properties held to 31 per cent in July, he said.

Yesterday's report showed that sales of existing single- family homes increased 6.5 per cent to an annual rate of 4.61 million. Sales of condominiums and cooperatives climbed 13 per cent to a 630,000 rate.

Purchases increased in three of four regions, led by a 13 per cent jump in the north-east.

Obama administration efforts to revive housing include an US$8,000 federal tax credit for first-time buyers who complete the transaction before Dec 1. The first-time buyers accounted for about 30 per cent of sales last month and the government's credit is having a 'significant impact' on sales, the NAR's Mr Yun said. -- Bloomberg

Thursday, August 20, 2009

South California July Home Prices Fall

Source : The Business Times, August 20, 2009

(SAN FRANCISCO) Southern California house and condominium prices fell 23 per cent last month from a year earlier as foreclosures dominated sales, MDA DataQuick said.

The median price dropped to US$268,000 from US$348,000 a year earlier, the San Diego-based research company said on Tuesday in a statement. The number of homes sold increased almost 19 per cent from a year earlier to 24,104 for Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties.

'There's still quite a bit of distress out there,' John Walsh, Dataquick's president, said in a statement. 'Even if we are at or near bottom, history suggests we could bounce along that bottom for quite a while.'

Foreclosures accounted for 43 per cent of sales, down from 45 per cent in June and from a peak of 57 per cent in February, MDA DataQuick said.

Foreclosures as a proportion of all sales hit the lowest since June 2008. Homes priced at US$500,000 and above were 20 per cent of transactions, compared with 15 per cent in March.

The July median price rose one per cent from June, the third consecutive monthly increase, according to MDA DataQuick. That was due in part to a larger share of home purchases financed with loans of more than US$417,000. About 15 per cent of transactions involved such loans, the highest in 11 months.

Values are likely to fall more in expensive coastal areas as employers cut jobs in the recession and homeowners reduce asking prices, said MDA Dataquick analyst Andrew LePage.

'Sellers are getting more realistic,' Mr LePage said in an interview. 'It looks like prices are coming down.'

Investors and absentee buyers, driven by discounts on foreclosed properties, bought 19 per cent of homes in the six-county region last month, up from 16 per cent a year earlier and more than the monthly average of 15 per cent since 2000, MDA DataQuick said.

The company defines absentee buyers as those whose property-tax bills are sent to a different address.

Purchases financed with loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, often used by first-time buyers, accounted for 37 per cent of July home sales, up from 20 per cent a year earlier, MDA DataQuick said.

Prices fell in all six counties, led by a 39 per cent drop in San Bernardino to a median of US$140,000. The median fell 29 per cent to US$185,000 in Riverside; 20 per cent to US$321,000 in Los Angeles; 12 per cent to US$320,000 in San Diego; 11 per cent to US$375,000 in Ventura; and 9 per cent to US$420,000 in Orange.

The July median was 47 per cent below the market peak of US$505,000 in the spring and summer of 2007, MDA DataQuick said.

Sales increased in five counties, led by San Bernardino's 41 per cent gain. Sales rose 23 per cent in Los Angeles, 14 per cent in Riverside, 12 per cent in Orange and 11 per cent in San Diego. Sales fell 4 per cent in Ventura.

MDA Dataquick is a unit of Richmond, British Columbia-based MacDonald, Dettwiler & Associates Ltd, and compiles data from county property records to sell to public agencies, lenders and title companies. -- Bloomberg

Biggest Drop In Aussie Property In 18 Yrs

Source : The Business Times, August 20, 2009

(SYDNEY) Capital values in the Australian property market plumbed 18-year lows in the year to end-June 2009, as increasing numbers of fund managers bit the bullet and marked down assets, property research firm IPD said.

The IPD and the Australian Property Council index showed capital values for all property sectors fell 13.3 per cent in the period.

This was the largest fall in asset values since the trough of the property crash in 1991, property research firm IPD said.

'There is a clear move by the industry towards stronger governance and reporting, with many more organisations now valuing all of their assets each quarter,' Adrian Harrington, non-executive chairman of IPD Australia's Board, said in a statement on Tuesday.

About 80 per cent of the 1,100 assets in the IPD database were revalued in June, up from about 60 per cent in June 2007 and June 2008. - Reuters

New Home Construction Down 1% In July

Source : The Business Times, August 19, 2009

LATEST US DATA

(WASHINGTON) Construction of new US homes dipped slightly last month, missing expectations, in a sign that the building industry's recovery from the housing bust is likely to be bumpy and gradual.

The Commerce Department said yesterday that construction started on homes and apartments fell one per cent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 581,000 units, from an upwardly revised rate of 587,000 in June. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters expected a pace of 600,000 units.

Builders slammed the brakes on construction after the housing bubble burst, and in April, housing starts plunged to the lowest point in a half-century. Then construction began a recovery, rising to the highest level in seven months in June before slipping again last month.

But the industry is still a long way from a return to normal. Last month's housing starts were still nearly 38 per cent below last year's levels.

The decline in construction was led by a drop of more than 13 per cent in multi-family properties. Construction of single-family homes rose one per cent last month.

Applications for building permits, an indicator of future activity, fell 1.8 per cent to an annual rate of 560,000 units.

Economists expected an annual rate of 580,000 units.

The industry is seeing increased demand from consumers who want to take advantage of a new federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers. It covers 10 per cent of a home price up to US$8,000. It is set to expire at the end of November.

While numerous signs have emerged that the US housing market has stabilised after the worst housing recession since the Great Depression, there are several threats to any recovery.

The unemployment rate, now 9.4 per cent, is expected to surpass 10 per cent, leaving even more homeowners unable to pay their mortgages.

Mortgage rates are still at attractive levels, but they could rise, making buying a home less affordable.

Nevertheless, builders have been growing more confident. The National Association of Home Builders said on Monday that its housing market index rose to the highest point in more than a year in August. The trade association's index rose one point to 18, a level not seen since June 2008.

Meanwhile, wholesale prices dropped sharply last month, and over the past 12 months fell by the largest amount in more than six decades of record-keeping.

The Labor Department said yesterday that wholesale prices dropped 0.9 per cent last month. That's triple the decline economists had expected and was driven by big decreases in both energy and food costs. Over the past 12 months, the prices of goods before they reach store shelves fell 6.8 per cent. - AP

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Rental Scam Targets Potential Tenants

Source : The Business Times, August 18, 2009

(WASHINGTON) Michelle Jonasson-Jones, a Silver Spring, Maryland-based property agent, cautions potential tenants about a rental scheme making the rounds online that has caught the attention of the FBI.

Ms Jonasson-Jones said that she has had her listings for rental properties 'stolen' and relisted under a different name and a lower price, usually on Craigslist. The impostors send prospective tenants an 'application' and ask for their personal and financial information.

They tell prospective renters that the owner is working overseas and is unavailable to show the house.

'It used to be they were scamming the owner; now they're scamming the tenants,' she said.

Wendy Dufford, an intelligence analyst for the FBI in Columbia, South Carolina, wrote an article for the bureau's website after the South Carolina Association of Realtors called to report such a scam.

Tenants who had been scammed were showing up at people's houses, she said, believing they had rented from a missionary overseas.

A formal investigation won't be launched until a minimum threshold of losses is reported online, Ms Dufford said, but so far the FBI has discerned that the scam originated in Nigeria and is affecting cities nationwide.

'They're choosing victims because of the economy,' Ms Dufford said.

Many of the scam victims have been forced to rent, because they've lost their homes and are searching on Craigslist, she said.

'They try to rent these homes, and then they get their money stolen.' - WP

Sharpest Fall In UK Home Prices In 8 Months

Source : The Business Times, August 18, 2009

Average cost falls 2.2% in Aug as banks ration mortgages on lack of funds

(LONDON) UK home sellers lowered asking prices in August by the most in eight months as banks kept up the squeeze on credit, Rightmove plc said.

The average cost of a home fell 2.2 per cent to £222,762 (S$532,225) after gaining 0.6 per cent in July, the owner of the UK's biggest residential property website said yesterday in a statement. Prices in London dropped 3.8 per cent.

'In spite of pent-up demand, the market and pricing is boxed in by restrictive lending criteria put in place to ration mortgages given the lack of funds available to lenders,' Miles Shipside, Rightmove's commercial director, said in the statement.

Bank of England governor Mervyn King said last Wednesday that the world remains in 'deep recession' and that banks may need to raise more capital to rebuild their balance sheets. Policy makers this month voted to add £50 billion of newly printed money to its bond-buying programme to cement Britain's recovery from the worst recession in a generation.

The pound fell against the US dollar by the most in a week after the report. The UK currency dropped 1.1 per cent to US$1.6347 as of 9.50am yesterday in London.

The number of new homes on the market was 48 per cent below the level preceding the financial crisis, Rightmove said. The price demanded by sellers fell the most in the East Midlands, where it dropped 9 per cent.

In London, values in Haringey declined the most, falling 7.6 per cent, followed by a 6.4 per cent drop in Merton. Prices in the fashionable district of Islington fell 6.1 per cent.

Buyers' optimism improved, with three-quarters of people moving home, saying that property prices won't fall in the next 12 months, Rightmove said.

Bank of England policy maker Andrew Sentance wrote in an article for the Sunday Times that 'the housing market appears to be turning'. He predicted that Britain's economy will return to growth in the second half of this year.

While data this month have added to evidence that Britain's economy is heading for recovery, rising joblessness may continue to damp people's ability to buy homes. Unemployment climbed to the highest level in 14 years in the second quarter, the Office for National Statistics said last Wednesday.

Consumers, with record debts of £1.5 trillion, are also struggling with existing mortgage payments. Bradford & Bingley plc, the biggest lender to UK landlords before it was taken over by the government, said last week that the proportion of mortgages in arrears more than doubled in the first half.

Most recent reports, including Rightmove's, have suggested stabilisation in house prices. - Bloomberg

UK Commercial Property Recovery A False Dawn

Source : The Business Times, August 18, 2009

(LONDON) Hold the celebrations and put the champagne away. A sustained recovery in the UK commercial property market is likely more distant than it might seem, as lingering economic hazards threaten a long-awaited rebound.

Shallow foundations? Some analysts fear a burst of unjustified optimism has replaced the blind panic which floored annual investment turnover by more than 50% to £22b (S$52.1b) in 2008

Figures recently from the world's largest property broker CB Richard Ellis showed UK values rising for the first time since peaking in June 2007.

Coupled with a 75 per cent surge in property stocks since March, the positive signals have fired hopes of an imminent end to two years of turmoil in the market, where prices have almost halved since a summer 2007 peak.

But some analysts fear a burst of unjustified optimism has replaced the blind panic which floored annual investment turnover by more than 50 per cent to £22 billion (S$52.1 billion) in 2008.

'We had sleepless nights (in March) because we did not understand so much bearishness, those nights are unfortunately back. This time it is the violent bull run that wakes us up too early,' JPMorgan property analyst Harm Meijer said.

The weakening economy, a continued scarcity of debt and an expected withdrawal of government-engineered drivers such as low base rates mean a long-lasting recovery, with rising values supported by improving rents, could still be years away.

The FTSE 350 Real Estate Index, led by blue chips Land Securities and British Land, has nearly doubled since hitting a lifetime low on March 10. But analysts such as Nomura's Mike Prew say that the rally is built on shallow foundations.

'We are mindful that after the 1990s crash, real estate prices suffered a relapse with . . . soggy pricing until rental growth was comprehensively restored some two years later,' Mr Prew said, explaining Nomura's contrarian downgrade of the sector from 'bullish' to 'neutral' recently.

'Our concern is that real estate prices will become distorted by artificially supported economic activity. (The UK Reit sector) . . . no longer appears inexpensive to us,' he said.

Data from brokerage Cushman & Wakefield shows prime property yields dropped by 24 basis points to 7.17 per cent in the second quarter, raising concerns landlords are no longer receiving an adequate risk premium versus the 3.8 per cent for 10-year gilts.

This investment risk centres on rental security, which has fallen sharply as the recession forces weak tenants out of business and stronger tenants to dump space, analysts said.

Cushman's quarterly figures to end-June show an acceleration in rental falls, while the take-up of UK office space has plunged by around 50 to 60 per cent in the year to June 30, pushing peak-to-trough forecasts for prime rents down by a fifth.

'It looks like a W-shaped (property) recovery could be on the cards, caused by short spikes in demand and a subsequent realisation that the economic fundamentals remain weak,' said Mike Riordan, head of investment at brokerage Gerald Eve.

Moreover, UK buyers are still struggling to secure debt from traditional lenders such as Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland, who continue to battle their own funding problems and costly exposure to UK commercial mortgages.

Other economic commentators suggest the surprise £50 billion expansion of the UK's quantitative easing programme recently is evidence the central bank sees a double-dip recession as inevitable, compounding risks of an early return to property. - Reuters

Dubai Housing Slump Nears Bottom: Jones Lang LaSalle

Source : The Business Times, August 18, 2009

(DUBAI) A downturn in Dubai's residential properties market appeared to be nearing a bottom in the second quarter as the rate of price declines eased and transaction volumes stabilised, a Jones Lang LaSalle researcher said.

Dubai's once-booming property sector has been hit hard by the global financial crisis, but the pick-up in more mature markets such as the US and Britain, is starting to boost investor confidence.

'The stabilisation is showing that the market is reaching the bottom and sales activity is starting to come back in,' Craig Plumb, head of research at Jones Lang LaSalle Middle East and North America told Reuters on Sunday.

'Prices are reaching a level where people think they are willing to buy,' said Mr Plumb, adding that sales activity was expected to increase in the next six months. Average asking sale prices fell by about 24 per cent in the second quarter from the first quarter, but the rate of decline slowed, he said in a report published on Sunday. This signalled the gap between asking price and selling price was narrowing, he added.

The decline in average housing prices has slowed down to 6 per cent in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, according to the report. Transaction volumes declines by 13 per cent compared to the first quarter and 58 per cent from their level in the second quarter of 2008. The gap between achieved and asked prices narrowed to 7 per cent in the second quarter of 2009, after achieved prices were 20 per cent lower than asking prices since the second quarter of 2008, it said.

The decline rate in rental prices also slowed, Jones Lang LaSalle said.

The average rent for two bedroom apartments fell by 15 per cent in the second quarter, compared with a 22 per cent decline in the first quarter of this year.

Additionally, new residential supply will continue to enter the market as 22,400 units are expected to be handed over this year, despite the cancellation or delay of more than US$24 billion worth of housing projects, it said. -- Reuters

Thursday, August 13, 2009

NZ House Prices Rise For A 3rd Month In July

Source : The Business Times, August 11, 2009

(WELLINGTON) New Zealand house prices rose for the third month in July, signalling the property market is recovering and may help the economy emerge from a recession.

Recovery mode: House prices in New Zealand rose 0.7% from June and have gained 1.3% from a low in April, according to a new report

Prices rose 0.7 per cent from June and have gained 1.3 per cent from a low in April, Quotable Value New Zealand Ltd, the government valuation agency, said in an e-mailed report.

Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard last month kept the benchmark interest rate at a record-low 2.5 per cent and said he is unlikely to raise borrowing costs until late 2010.

Rising consumer confidence, housing demand and immigration are helping New Zealand recover from its worst recession in three decades.

'There are signs that more vendors are putting their properties on the market,' Glenda Whitehead, valuation manager at Wellington-based Quotable Value, said in the report. 'This is perhaps in response to reports of shortages of listings and signs that values have stopped declining.'

House prices slumped last year amid a credit crisis and a plunge in consumer confidence. By March, prices were 9.3 per cent lower than a year earlier.

In July, prices were 5 per cent lower than a year earlier, yesterday's report showed.

New Zealanders are more optimistic about the housing market, with 27 per cent of 600 people surveyed in July saying they expect prices will rise, ASB Bank Ltd said in a report last week.

Sixty-four per cent said it was a good time to buy a home. Annual immigration growth accelerated to the highest level in more than two years in June, while house sales rose 40 per cent.

Consumer confidence rose to an 18-month high in the second quarter, according to a survey by Westpac Banking Corp and McDermott Miller Ltd. -- Bloomberg

Dubai Home Prices Drop Further

Source : The Business Times, August 11, 2009

(DUBAI) Dubai house prices fell by 24 per cent in the second quarter from the prior quarter but the pace of decline slowed, in line with improving global property markets, Landmark Advisory said on Sunday.

Prices fell less in the same period in Abu Dhabi, as the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) capital, home to most of the country's oil, continues to weather the global downturn better than its neighbour.

The average sale price for villas in Dubai fell 24 per cent while apartments declined 17 per cent, Landmark said.

Prices for villas and apartments fell 32 per cent and 23 per cent respectively in the first quarter from the fourth quarter, the firm said in its May report.

Dubai's once-booming real estate sector has been hit hard by the global financial crisis, but the pick-up in more mature markets such as the United States and Britain is starting to cheer investors.

Prices in the US rose in May for the first time in three years while prices in Britain gained for a third month running in July.

House prices in Dubai are likely to stabilise by the fourth quarter, after falling 9 per cent in the second quarter from the previous quarter, Colliers International said last week.

Rents for villas in Dubai fell 19 per cent to 220,350 dirhams (S$86,480) in the second quarter, while apartment rents dropped 23 per cent to 129,900 dirhams, Landmark said.

Transaction volumes rose 25 per cent and 20 per cent respectively as more people relocated to Dubai from the neighbouring emirates of Abu Dhabi and Sharjah, it said.

In Abu Dhabi, sale prices fell by up to 11 per cent for apartments in the second quarter and 8 per cent for villas compared with the previous quarter, but prices are unlikely to suffer further significant declines, the report said.

The rate of decline also slowed as prices for both categories fell 20 per cent and 30 per cent respectively in the first quarter from the fourth quarter, Landmark said in May.

Rents for both apartments and villas fell by roughly 10 per cent in the second quarter, it said, adding average rents would likely fall significantly as more supply enters the market.

Seven emirates make up the UAE federation.

Landmark Advisory is part of real estate brokerage and consultancy Landmark Properties, which has offices in the UAE and London. -- Reuters

Battered Owners Hopeful As Home Sales, Prices Rise

Source : The Business Times, August 11, 2009

But analysts remain sceptical on the longer-term outlook for property prices

(LONDON) For homeowners around the world struck by the collapse of property markets, figures showing the downward spiral may be halting are the most meaningful signs yet of a possible economic recovery.

False dawn? Despite price rises in Britain (next), China and the United States (left), IHS Global Insight warns that there may be surprises in store as houses could become less affordable

As battered banks and stocks rally again, news that US house prices are finally rising after nearly three years of traumatic decline offers the greatest hope to hard-pressed homeowners from California to Krakow.

The sub-prime home loan crisis in America was the pressure-point that exposed underlying global financial chaos - and many economists say that property prices there are the linchpin for confidence in broader economic recovery.

US home sales have been rising and the latest Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index of home prices in 20 major US cities showed a 0.5 per cent increase between April and May - the first monthly rise since 2006.

'This is the first time we have seen broad increases in home prices in 34 months. This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilising,' said Standard & Poor's analyst David Blitzer.

Data from the National Association of Realtors also showed that the median price of existing US home sales was US$181,600 (S$261,704) in June - 15 per cent lower than a year ago, but up from US$174,700 in May.

Celia Chen, an analyst at credit rating agency Moody's, said that there were 'tantalising signs that the descent in house prices is at least moderating', but warned that house prices will not reach their 2006 highs until 2020.

Joel Naroff at Naroff Economic Advisors disagreed with that downbeat view, saying the increase 'could start increasing much more rapidly than projected'.

Analysts remain sceptical on the longer-term outlook for property prices as stable economic growth remains vulnerable to rising unemployment and government strategies for a clean exit from recession after unprecedented fiscal stimulus.

But that is doing little to dampen cautious optimism on property markets.

Official data in China is showing house prices in 70 cities were up 0.8 per cent in June from May, rising for the fourth straight month, while real estate investment nationwide rose 9.9 per cent in the first half of the year.

In Britain, house prices rose by 1.1 per cent last month to just under £160,000 (S$384,808) from June, but were down 12.1 per cent over 12 months, a survey from home-loans provider Halifax showed this week.

In neighbouring Ireland, however, prices have fallen by up to 40 per cent from their peak in 2006 and are still going down - with the government now working to provide 90 billion euros (S$184 billion) in guarantees to the loan market.

Likewise, Spain's second-biggest bank BBVA has forecast that house prices, after a decade-long, tourism-fuelled property boom, will still fall by nearly 30 per cent between 2008 and 2011 before they start to recover.

In the Gulf emirate of Dubai, house prices have almost halved over the past year. The sector there is struggling with a shortage of liquidity and job security for expatriates who represent over 80 per cent of the population.

The decline in Dubai has had wider implications, with US bank Morgan Stanley saying that world steel production will remain below 75 per cent capacity as it awaits a revival in the construction sector in the Middle East.

And, despite the price rises in Britain, China and the United States, IHS Global Insight analyst Howard Archer warns that there may be surprises in store.

'We suspect that they will be prone to relapses over the coming months,' Mr Archer said, referring to British house prices.

He warned that houses could become less affordable because of 'the economic climate of recession, sharply rising unemployment and slowing wage growth'. -- AFP

Thursday, August 6, 2009

British Home Prices Up 1.1% In July: Survey

Source : The Business Times, August 6, 2009

Demand rises on affordability and low interest rates

(LONDON) British home prices rose by 1.1 per cent in July from the level the previous month, but fell over 12 months, a survey from home-loans provider Halifax showed yesterday.

Halifax - part of the state-controlled Lloyds Banking Group - added that the prices of homes in July were 12.1 per cent lower compared with the level in the same month of 2008.

'Demand for homes has risen, albeit from a very low base, since the start of the year, driven by improvements in affordability and low interest rates,' said Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis in a statement.

He added: 'Higher demand has combined with the low levels of property available for sale to boost sales activity from exceptionally low levels and support prices over the past few months.'

According to Halifax, the average cost of a British home stood at £159,623 (S$387,548) in July 2009.

Last week, another major home-loans provider, Nationwide, had said that British house prices rose by 1.3 per cent in July from June, leaving the average cost of a home at almost £159,000.

Nationwide had also said that prices were 1.3 per cent higher so far this year and could finish slightly higher for the year as a whole. -- AFP

中国城市7月楼市成交量回落

Source : 《联合早报》Aug 05, 2009

(北京/上海综合讯)7月份中国30个城市的商品住宅总成交面积环比下跌约4%,其中有15个城市的商品住宅成交面积环比下降,北京、上海、广州、深圳四个一线城市还首次出现月成交量全部下跌的局面。

昨日,《上海证券报》报道,经过上半年的持续上扬后,7月全国楼市出现区域调整的局面。

7月上海商品住宅成交面积为194万平方米,环比6月减少5.37%。这也是上海楼市成交量在持续6个月的上涨后首次出现下跌;北京期房商品住宅的销量为1万2840套,剔除其中的经济适用房和限价房外的期房商品住宅签约套数为1万零862套,日均约350套,较6月的日均385套下跌9.1%。

不过,这是北京楼市继5月之后今年出现的第二次回调。

广州方面,7月广州楼市供成交6653套,比6月的1万零502套下降36%,并只达5月量的一半。

深圳国土房产部门的统计数据则显示,7月深圳新建商品住宅销售面积为54万8300平方米,环比6月下降17.4%。广州和深圳都已是连续第二个月出现成交下降。

报道引述中原地产的分析师称,7月本是传统楼市淡季,供应量有所减少,而成交放缓也是由于积存的购买力在上半年已经消化掉很多了。

温州炒房团 部分投资客开始出货

与此同时,央视《经济信息联播》报道,温州炒房团目前卖出房子的数量比买入的多。一名超房团圆表示,目前中国房价已经过高,没有炒作的空间。现在投资客都认为北京、上海的房价太高,而把目光投向了二线城市。

不过,中国交通银行研究部最近发布报告称,目前中国楼市供过于求,回暖根基尚未企稳,但宏观经济企稳回升的势头将促使房价在目前的水平上止跌回稳,甚至会出现小幅上升。今年下半年全国房价易涨难跌,仍将在高位徘徊。

新华社报道,交行的报告称,报告指出,开发商投资意愿上升,将使下半年房地产开发投资增幅持续回升。

报告还对下半年针对楼市的调控政策做出了预测,“虽然目前宏观货币政策适度宽松的方向未变,短期内对房地产市场的调控政策也不会有方向性的变动,但微调已经开始。如果房价继续过快上涨,不排除政策再次收紧的可能性”。

GuocoLand Malaysia To Launch RM1.7b Projects

Source : The Business Times, August 4, 2009

Projects in Selangor may be completed in 2016 or 2017

(RAWANG, Selangor) Property developer GuocoLand (Malaysia) Bhd plans to roll out several high-end projects in stages at Emerald Rawang in Selangor with a total gross development value (GDV) of RM1.7 billion (S$695 million).

'Going forward, the RM1.7 billion GDV will have a bigger impact in terms of contribution. The projects are expected to be completed in 2016 or 2017,' executive director Chan Chee Meng told reporters during a media tour here yesterday.

Emerald Rawang is a joint-venture project between GuocoLand Malaysia and Hong Bee Land Sdn Bhd, with the former as the project manager. GuocoLand Malaysia is a member of the Hong Leong group.

The Emerald Rawang township comprises Emerald East and Emerald West.

Emerald Rawang sits on about 400ha of freehold land, comprising a mixed-use development ranging from link, cluster and semi-D homes to high-end bungalows.

To date, a total of 1,300 homes have been built with sales of RM375 million, Mr Chan said, adding the company has targeted another RM100 million sales by year-end on expectation of good demand for the semi-D homes.

'We plan to launch four more phases this year because it is timely due to the recovery of the market and buyers are upgrading to more established projects,' he said.

Mr Chan said several phases are planned for Emerald East with a GDV of RM268 million, with the launches expected in 2010 and 2011.

On Emerald West, he said the projects will be much bigger, with GDV of RM1.51 billion comprising semi-D, double-storey link and commercial properties.

Emerald West, on a 276ha site, will have facilities such as a jogging track, nine-hole golf course, Chinese primary school and commercial square, Mr Chan said.

Another township, called Emerald Hills, will be located on a 160ha site with more high-end projects to meet the growing demand, he said.

He also said that joint-venture partner Hong Bee Land is expected to finalise a venture with Jusco by year-end in order to set up a shopping complex near the township.

At the media tour, GuocoLand Malaysia unveiled its new sales gallery, which was set up to centralise sales activities, enhance communication with customers and showcase progress of the development.

'The show gallery is a platform for customers to receive all the latest updates on the township and promotions as well as to hold discussions with our personnel on home-ownership matters,' Mr Chan said. -- Bernama

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Caught Offguard By Property Rebound

Source : The Straits Times, August 03 2009

First-time buyers left in the lurch as boom spreads to China’s 2nd-tier cities

When China’s property market slumped late last year, Ms Zhao Jun, 33, rejoiced.

The department manager of a technology company in Beijing had long been searching in vain for an affordable apartment.

Property prices have surged not just in top-tier cities like Beijing, but also in up-and-coming ones where developers are venturing into for higher profit margins.

“We thought that the time had finally come to buy a home that met our budget of 5,000 yuan (S$1,000) per sq m,” said the mother of a one-year-old daughter.

She had been paying rent of 4,000 yuan a month – 40 per cent of her salary – and wanted a place to call her own.

But little did she expect that home prices in Beijing’s fourth ring, a location she favoured, would fall to 16,000 yuan per sq m and no further.

And then within a few months, prices abruptly shot up again – way beyond her reach – to well over 20,000 yuan per sq m.

This has forced Ms Zhao to settle for an apartment much further away in the eastern suburbs. “Im afraid that at the rate the market is rising, if I don’t buy now, property will be even more expensive in future,” she said late last month.

Indeed, a sudden revival of real estate fever across China would turn home prices from bust to boom, leaving thousands of first-time home-buyers in the lurch.

In Beijing, average house prices in the capital leapt 27 per cent from January to June, while Shanghai has seen a 78-per-cent spike in residential sales, and the climb has continued since.

But it is not just residents in top-tier cities who are hit. Those in up-and-coming ones such as Tianjin have also been hit as analysts predict these “second-tier cities” will grow even faster than first- tier ones – and prices will be swept along upwards. In Tianjin, property prices rose 2 per cent in May against the previous month on the back of a 19 per cent jump in daily transaction volumes.

Even so, 90 per cent of Tianjin home-seekers in a recent online poll by property portal House Focus are already complaining that prices are way beyond what they can afford.

To these people, it looks like the government’s measures to turn around the property sector – which had slumped a year ago after Beijing took steps to curb speculation and overheating – have worked all too well.

As China’s economy entered rougher waters late last year, Beijing moved to revive the property sector – a key engine of growth. It cut minimum deposits and banks’ mortgage rates for first-time home-buyers. And it also slashed the minimum proportion of capital funding that a developer is required to hold in order to build new projects.

This has sparked a rush among China’s developers back into the market, especially in second-tier cities.

They went on buying sprees for land at record prices, prompting Mr Pan Shiyi, chief of Chinese developer SOHO to declare to local media last month: “The bidders have gone irrational.”

Developers have poured 1.45 trillion yuan into property development in the first half of this year, up almost 10 per cent compared with the same period a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This has pushed up demand and prices for existing units, as buyers rush in, expecting developers to raise prices soon in a fast-recovering market.

But another, perhaps even more potent, factor in what analysts warn may be a property market bubble is hot money flows. These oozed from the 7.4 trillion yuan of new bank loans released as part of Beijing’s stimulus package in the first half of the year.

Some 30 per cent of the loans meant for projects under the stimulus plan may have been channelled into real estate, Mr Wei Jianing, a senior researcher at the State Council Development and Research Centre, told state media recently.

The aggregate home prices across major Chinese cities had in fact, only reversed last month, correcting a five- month decline and rising 0.2 per cent in June, compared with a year ago, official statistics showed. But analysts say this momentum will only grow faster.

In particular, second-tier cities such as Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenyang and Chengdu are seeing a strong recovery in home prices as their economies pick up pace, spurred by their governments’ stimulus measures, noted Mr Carlby Xie of Colliers International in Beijing.

“These cities are experiencing a very exciting period of property development boom – not only in the residential but also the commercial sector,” he said.

Large-scale developers which had previously concentrated on top-tier cities are starting to venture into second-tier ones where profit margins may be higher.

Meanwhile, demand is growing among increasingly affluent urban residents for new, top-quality housing, added Mr Xie.

This trend is, however, bad news for Mr Zhou Jinhai, 27, a hotel manager in Tianjin who hopes to buy a small apartment before proposing to his girlfriend.

“Growth in second-tier cities and property markets is good – but not when genuine first-time buyers like me have to make sacrifices and bear the cost of it,” he lamented.

中国内地客纷往香港买房

Source : 《联合早报》Aug 03, 2009

(香港讯)中国内地经济急速发展,催生新一代中产阶层,这批消费新力军积极为财富增值,纷纷找投资出路,香港成为热点之一。

据《文汇报》报道,前天内地顾客去港买房,购买30伙红磡海滨南岸房产,涉资达1亿2500万港元(下同,2300万新元);将军澳领都日前售出的1500个单位中,有15%单位为内地客所买。

内地客消费力强劲,发展商及地产代理均瞄准商机,积极安排各种推广及看楼团。

恒地营业部总经理林达民表示,公司自2003年起,已积极在内地进行推介,及安排内地客去港看楼,至今估计约100次,涉及北京、广州、深圳、上海、温州及四川等省市。

林达民指出,2008年前,香港推售物业的内地客销售额比例,仅占数个百分点,至去年下半年起,已升至约8%至10%,今年上半年更高达15%,反映内地客占比越来越高。未来会加强内地推广力度,如在重庆、成都、西安、长沙、徐州等30个城市进行推介,估计到2010年,内地客消费比重,有机会升至18%。

新世界营业及市务部高级经理刘仲良也指出,近月内地买家入市比例渐升,如旗下元朗翘翠峰,买家由本地客为主,至目前近1成为内地客,其中3、4房单位最受内地买家欢迎,有个别内地买家斥资逾千万元买房。

因此,新世界也计划加强内地宣传攻势,如即将推售的尖沙咀名铸,考虑在北京、上海、杭州、宁波、沈阳及太原等地做宣传,吸引内地客投资。

长实地产投资董事黄思聪也表示,将军澳领都至今售约1500伙,其中3座海景LA、B室售约80伙,内地客比例约占10%至15%。

美联移民顾问行政总裁吉安表示,计划未来每月安排一团去港看楼,每团约40人。

香港置业高级营业董事姚伟南也指出,上周初曾安排约20名上海客去港考察,他相信,未来此类型看楼团会越来越多。