Property Launches Here See Sustained Interest

Source : The Business Times, August 4, 2009

Strong interest at the weekend despite government's warnings to buyers against over-committing

Property launches again attracted strong interest at the weekend - days after the government warned buyers against over-committing themselves.

'Our ground checks last weekend revealed that buyers continued to throng showflats,' DMG & Partners Securities analyst Brandon Lee said in a note yesterday.

TID - a joint venture between Hong Leong Group and Japan-listed developer Mitsui Fudosan - has sold all 297 units at Optima@Tanah Merah since the public preview began on Thursday last week. Buyers include HDB flat owners and private property owners, who took up the units at an average price of about $810 per sq ft.

In response to the huge turnout at the showflat, TID held two rounds of balloting for apartments at the 99-year leasehold project. Some 600 ballots were cast.

The 'showflat was filled to the brim, with over 200 people at any one point, and insufficient agents to tend to all visitors', Mr Lee said in his note.

Far East Organization reported good sales for Centro Residences at Ang Mo Kio. About 65 per cent - or 93 of 144 units released in the first phase - have been sold at prices from $1,100 psf.

According to the group's executive director and property sales chief operating officer Chia Boon Kuah, most buyers took up units for their own occupation or as investments for their children. Half of them are HDB upgraders, while the other half are private housing owners.

Seeing potential for property values in the Ang Mo Kio area to rise, Far East plans to market the 329-unit Centro Residences in phases until it obtains its temporary occupation permit (TOP). Phase two sales will begin next year and phase three the year after next. 'We are confident that Centro Residences will be fully sold before TOP,' Mr Chia said.

National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said last Wednesday that signs of speculation are re-emerging in the property market. The government is watching the situation closely, he stressed. Industry views are mixed as to whether his comments will cool buying sentiment.

Steepest Fall In Office Occupancy Cost Here

Source : The Business Times, August 4, 2009

Some firms may expand as rents fall and the economy stabilises

A plunge in Grade A office rents has raised Singapore's competitive edge somewhat. According to Colliers International, office occupancy costs here were the fourth-highest among 26 Asia-Pacific cities in Q2 this year - down a notch from a quarter ago.

Getting cheaper: Singapore fell from third to fourth place in a ranking of office occupancy costs after rents slid 26.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter, averaging at $6.73 psf per month in Q2

As rents stay weak while the economy stabilises, property consultants also expect some companies to take advantage of the situation to expand.

Colliers noted that monthly gross rents for Grade A offices in Singapore's central business district (CBD) posted the sharpest fall in Q2, compared with other major cities in the region. Rents slid 26.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter, averaging at $6.73 psf per month in Q2.

As a result, Singapore fell from third to fourth place in a ranking of office occupancy costs. Tokyo remained the most expensive place in the Asia-Pacific to rent an office - average Grade A CBD office rents there were 2.2 times that of Singapore's, up from 1.6 times in Q1.

Hong Kong also kept its No. 2 spot. Average Grade A CBD office rents there were 1.4 times that of Singapore's, growing from 1.2 times in Q1. Ho Chi Minh City rose one notch to replace Singapore in third place on the list.

Colliers expects office rents in Singapore to continue falling up till H1 next year, albeit at a slower pace. This is because demand from most companies is likely to stay subdued, while supply of shadow space could increase.























This means that Singapore could continue slipping in the list of the most expensive Asia-Pacific cities to rent an office, said Colliers research and advisory director Tay Huey Ying.

While most companies may be cautious about expansion, some may take advantage of lower rents to grow in anticipation of better times ahead. 'Flight to quality and opportunistic expansion can be expected to intensify on the back of continued rental weakness,' Ms Tay said.

Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han agreed, noting that companies have been more willing to relocate to larger premises since May or June this year.

'The economy now looks like it's on the mend' and some companies 'are budgeting for a possible increase in headcount' by some 10-15 per cent, he said.

Mr Han added that a few quarters ago, most firms were still watching the rental market and would rather extend their leases than commit to more space. As rental declines moderate, 'tenants are going to say - how low can it go?'

Colliers cited Dresdner Bank as an example of companies expanding or upgrading their space requirements as office rents fall. The bank will be moving from Tung Centre at Collyer Quay to 71 Robinson Road where it will take up 20,000 sq ft of space.

Property Fund Snaps Up 21 Condo Units For $65m

Source : The Business Times, August 4, 2009

Other big-ticket transactions could rev up investment sales in second half

IN one of the first bulk sales of apartments since the economic crisis unfolded last year, a property fund is understood to have purchased the remaining 21 units at Sui Generis condo at Balmoral Crescent for $65 million.

Sui Generis: Market watchers say the $1,260 psf price is about half the average price achieved for project in 2007 and 2008

The price works out to about $1,260 per square foot on average. The units are said to be located throughout the freehold project, which is slated for completion around the second quarter of next year. The condo comprises three blocks - seven, nine and 12 storeys high. It is being developed by a joint venture involving United Engineers and Kajima.

CB Richard Ellis is understood to have brokered the latest sale, but it declined to comment on the transaction.

Market watchers commented, however, that $1,260 psf average price for the latest deal is about half the average price of about $2,460 psf achieved for the earlier 19 units in the 40-unit development that were sold in 2007 and 2008 at prices ranging from $1,991 psf to $2,717 psf.

About $2.2 billion of investment sales deals were struck in the first six months of this year, against $17.9 billion for the whole of last year and the record $53.7 billion in 2007.

However, activity is expected to pick up in the current half. For one, sites on the Government's reserve list have been triggered for launch, including residential sites at Dakota Crescent and Chestnut Avenue.

Recently, the 50-room Hotel Nostalgia in the Tiong Bahru area was sold for about $22 million. The Indonesian buyer was represented by Rodyk & Davidson. Hotel Nostalgia, a freehold property, is expected to receive Temporary Occupation Permit soon. The seller was Lion Properties Group.

Some big ticket items are also on the market. One is a portfolio of four malls and an office tower owned by Asian Retail Mall Ltd (ARML) 1 fund with a price tag said to be about $1.5 billion - which industry players described as 'bullish'. An expression of interest closed last week for the portfolio, which comprises White Sands in Pasir Ris, Century Square in Tampines, Hougang Mall, Tiong Bahru Plaza and the next door Central Plaza office block.

The fund's life actually ended late last year - around the time of the Lehman Brothers collapse - and the investors decided to continue the fund until they could find the right mode of disposal or seek a formal extension to the fund's lifespan.

ARML 1's investors include a few Dutch pension funds that are said to favour selling the fund's malls to realise their investment. However, market watchers say the other investors, which include entities linked to Pramerica Real Estate Investors Asia, Guthrie and NTUC FairPrice, want to wait for a better time to maximise their profit.

The fund bought the five assets for a total of about $943 million and may have invested a further sum of over $80 million enhancing the properties. 'This leaves less scope for further improvements,' a market watcher said.

Property consultants generally expect retail rents in suburban malls to dip slightly this year and if yields demanded by investors rise, this will create downward pressure on capital values of suburban malls.

However, on a more positive note, a property consultant said: 'Shopping centres as an asset class don't suffer the same weakness as the office market, where there's too much supply in the horizon and demand is still weak. Institutional investors have a fairly negative view on the Singapore office market.'

Signs Of Economic Uplift Abound

Source : The Sunday Times, Aug 2, 2009

But caution is needed as economic outlook in Europe and the US remains bleak

Just five months ago, it would be difficult to envisage the air of prosperity now pervading Singapore.

In February, the mood was grim as Singapore grappled with a severe global economic slowdown triggered by a series of high-profile bankruptcies such as the collapse of investment banking giant Lehman Brothers in the United States.

Since then, the pendulum has swung the other way as the mood seems to have turned wildly exuberant. The stock market is on a roll, having climbed over 15 per cent in the past three weeks.

Meanwhile, posh condos and HDB flats are again being snapped up by hungry home-buyers.

This was despite a brief scare late last year over a possible rise in the number of defaults, by investors who had deferred the bulk of their payments until the properties were completed, as the economy nose-dived.

One market watcher likens the current buying spree or even panic to the huge gold rush experienced in California in the 19th century when the precious metal was discovered there.

Yet, as the history books attest, few of those who made it to California struck it rich. Most gold-diggers went home empty-handed - poorer and wiser from the experience.

Still, it would be churlish to dismiss the powerful rally - now witnessed not just in Singapore but also all over Asia - as a mirage conjured up by savvy investment bankers and stockbrokers to lure investors back into the stock market.

The retail community, for instance, has greeted the return of consumers with great relief.

The boss of one Orchard Road shopping mall observed that in February, all her tenants were losing money as the aisles literally emptied of shoppers. Singaporeans were so fearful of losing their jobs that they had stopped spending altogether after the Chinese New Year, she recounted.

So she was grateful to get the shopping crowd back.

'I don't understand why the stock market is surging and everyone is crazy about properties. But people are taking out their accumulated wealth to spend and spend. It is good for business,' she said.

But her happy experience is not shared by everybody.

The manager of one electronics retailer noted that most HDB heartlanders remained tight-fisted, keeping purchases of new TV sets on hold as they agonised over job security and a drop in income after suffering a cut in their salaries.

Still, despite his dour experience, there is no denying that a powerful dose of confidence is coasting through the economy and this has perked up Singaporeans in a big way.

It has left plenty of market watchers scratching their heads in amazement, even though the sputtering economies of the United States and Europe - Singapore's biggest trading partners - show no signs of reviving just yet.

Some cynics claim that this is simply complacency setting in, after people got over the initial shock of job losses at big organisations such as DBS Bank and Citibank last year.

Despite the headline-grabbing retrenchments, most Singaporeans have stayed gainfully employed, and life goes on as usual. If they had taken a pay cut, they have obviously not been too hurt by it.

Then there is the reported argument put forward by French bank BNP Paribas chief economist Chan Kok Peng that unlike the average American or European struggling to pay off his credit card debt, Singaporeans are sitting on a fat cushion of savings piled up during the boom years. This has enabled them to weather the current recession far better than the rest of the world.

Still, it fails to explain the gung-ho buying binge which we are witnessing in the stock market and the residential property sector.

In early March, when sentiment was at its bleakest, I wrote a column arguing against a then mindless rush into gold as global financial markets went into free-fall.

Hoarding lumps of gold under our mattresses is not going to boost our living standards. In extreme circumstances, it can even cause the real economy to crash by starving it of much-needed cash that keeps it humming.

Since then, gold prices have hardly moved. Instead, badly battered stock markets around the world have staged a miraculous recovery after plunging to their lowest levels in years.

What we are experiencing may be a manifestation of the confidence which Singaporeans have in their future as they strive to get ahead in life. It is only when living standards go up that assets like houses appreciate in value.

For many market watchers, a country's stock market is perhaps the best indicator of how investors are viewing its future.

Against this backdrop, it is not surprising to find that Asian bourses are among the best-performing in the world, as people in this region are among the most confident of their future.

In Singapore, the benchmark Straits Times Index has risen 49 per cent so far this year, while Shanghai - the world's best-performing bourse - is up 88.8 per cent.

A word of caution is needed here though. Despite the beguiling calm now prevailing in financial markets, the skies may still be overcast as global lenders struggle to purge billions of dollars worth of toxic assets from their balance sheets.

Investors who are plunging headlong into the stock market, in the perhaps mistaken belief that clear blue skies lie ahead, must factor in the dangers.

No Need To Rush For Mass Market Homes

Source : The Sunday Times, Aug 2, 2009

Supply still ample, including units under or slightly above $1,000 psf, so first-time buyers need not panic

Property experts say there is no shortage of mass market homes for sale in Singapore, referring to properties under $1,000 per sq ft or slightly above it.

Apart from new launches coming up, there are also unsold units from existing launches.










These include the remaining phases of Far East Organization and Frasers Centrepoint's site in Bedok Reservoir, and smaller projects by other developers, said CBRE.

Also, Hong Leong Group's sites in Flora Road and Pasir Ris Drive 1 already comprise more than 3,000 new units.

There is also ample leasehold land available for redevelopment, though not all sites will be equally attractive.

Suburban plots purchased by developers include sites in Yishun, Khatib, Toa Payoh, West Coast and Optima in Tanah Merah, said CBRE executive director of residential Joseph Tan.

While the price outlook may be unclear, what is clear is that mass market prices are unlikely to go back to the previous lows, he said.

New suburban launches are unlikely to hit the market at levels of around $500 psf or slightly more, as land prices have gone up since then, he said. HDB prices have also risen.

'Broadly, initial launch prices of mass market developments are now in the range of $600 psf to $700 psf,' he said.

He added that those in a more attractive location will command a premium. For instance, he said the project he is marketing, Optima, started at $790 psf as it is right next to a Tanah Merah MRT station entrance and at the fringe of an HDB estate instead of inside one.

In general, the plentiful supply pipeline will keep suburban prices in check to a certain extent, experts said.

But first-time buyers must be aware that sentiment does at times get ahead of reality. The current market situation is a good example, said property veteran Nicholas Mak, formerly director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.

The buying momentum is not sustainable past this year if foreign buyers continue to stay away, he said.

'Some people think that they are buying at a 'recession price'. They are wrong because developers always price at the level the market can bear,' said Mr Mak.

Some suburban and city-fringe projects are being priced at levels near the previous peak or even at record levels, he cautioned.

A developer who declined to be named conceded: 'Developers are businessmen. If I can sell at a higher price, why not?'

Said Mr Mak: 'When the new launches are completed and the expected demand does not come, some investors will sell their units and prices could come down. Then some investors may be caught.'

In any case, there is a big pool of potential supply out there that can absorb any surge in demand, he said.

'You can't just look at the new suburban launches from developers. You also have to look at the supply in the resale market and also the HDB resale market,' he said.

'Usually, resale units tend to be cheaper and bigger than newly launched units.'

Second-quarter data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) shows that there are 38,482 units of unsold uncompleted homes.

Of this number, some 14,000 units are in the suburban areas or what the URA terms as outside the central region.

Considering developers have on average over the past five years sold 3,200 units of private suburban homes a year, this number provides enough supply for nearly 41/2 years, said Mr Mak.

So first-time buyers should not panic and rush into the market. They should take their time in finding their dream home. Do the necessary research, as National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan urged buyers last Wednesday.

Should Balloting Replace Queueing?

Source : The Straits Times, Aug 1, 2009

It's fairer, says developer but mixed feelings from buyers, consultants

AN ALTERNATIVE to queues and the 'first come, first served' principle at property launches is emerging as developers turn to ballots to allocate flats in an increasingly active market.

A ballot was used amid tumultuous scenes at the Optima condo on Thursday night when buyers swamped the Tanah Merah showflat a day before it was due to open.

It was also employed when two-room flats were released at Somerset condo One Devonshire in June. And Boon Keng condo Airstream is set to launch on Wednesday with balloting.

The process - essentially buyers' names are drawn out of a box - is getting backing from developers and buyers and may become increasingly common as activity gathers pace.

Mr Gerry de Silva, the head of group corporate affairs at Hong Leong, a partner in the Optima project, said balloting is fairer and stops people from trying tactics like selling places in a queue.

'Balloting is more transparent and the crowd can be dissipated faster,' Mr de Silva said. 'We wanted to ensure that genuine buyers come in and that they are not held up for too long.'

In Optima's first balloting round on Thursday night, about 300 buyers vied for the 120 released units that were going for an average of $790 per square foot. All units were allocated.

Buyers in the ballot had to submit one cheque for an individual unit. The most popular unit attracted over 40 ballots.

Yesterday, a further 156 units were released in the second ballot round. Optima has 297 units.

Buyers also seem to prefer balloting to queueing, although the reactions were mixed.

'Balloting is quite fair, whereas queueing is not; whoever gets there first gets the flat,' said prospective buyer S.B. Chung, an engineering firm owner, who entered Optima's second ballot yesterday.

But some felt balloting was not completely fair. Ms Christina Lee, who managed to get a three-room Optima unit in the first round, said: 'If five people are balloting for one unit, then the other four who don't get it have to re-do everything. If they still cannot get a unit on their second try, they have to keep repeating the process.

'Nobody wants to queue. But if you want to do a ballot, you should say so from the start,' added the manager, who took time off work to line up for nearly four hours on Thursday.

'I was upset that they switched to a ballot at the last minute; I felt that they had no proper system.'

She added that 'developers should let those who did not get a unit have priority to choose a unit before the second ballot", because they would have wasted a lot of time queueing.

Mr de Silva said that those who miss out in the first ballot do not get preference if they enter the second round.

'Each round is a fresh chance for interested buyers,' he said.

Property consultants said that neither system was absolutely fairer or better than the other.

Ms Tay Huey Ying of Colliers International told The Straits Times: 'In queueing, time will be wasted, but there are ways to overcome the inefficiencies.

'For example, if developers know that there are 100 units, then they can give out 100 queue numbers. Whereas balloting very much depends on your chances so it can be deemed as unfair.'

Dr Chua Yang Liang of Jones Lang LaSalle noted that both systems were suited to different market conditions.

'Queueing is simpler to execute and is more manageable when the demand is within a certain threshold. But once it is too large, it becomes hard to manage - that's when ballots have to come in, or other alternatives,' he said.

Mr Eric Cheng, executive director of HSR Property Group, said that up to a quarter of properties were sold via balloting during the market boom of 2007.

But he noted that there had been 'a couple of complaints' in the past about agents and officials selecting friends and relatives.

'Developers can use balloting to beef up numbers for different segments because balloting goes by phases and the developer decides which units to release,' he added.

Caught Offguard By Property Rebound

Source : The Straits Times, August 03 2009

First-time buyers left in the lurch as boom spreads to China’s 2nd-tier cities

When China’s property market slumped late last year, Ms Zhao Jun, 33, rejoiced.

The department manager of a technology company in Beijing had long been searching in vain for an affordable apartment.

Property prices have surged not just in top-tier cities like Beijing, but also in up-and-coming ones where developers are venturing into for higher profit margins.

“We thought that the time had finally come to buy a home that met our budget of 5,000 yuan (S$1,000) per sq m,” said the mother of a one-year-old daughter.

She had been paying rent of 4,000 yuan a month – 40 per cent of her salary – and wanted a place to call her own.

But little did she expect that home prices in Beijing’s fourth ring, a location she favoured, would fall to 16,000 yuan per sq m and no further.

And then within a few months, prices abruptly shot up again – way beyond her reach – to well over 20,000 yuan per sq m.

This has forced Ms Zhao to settle for an apartment much further away in the eastern suburbs. “Im afraid that at the rate the market is rising, if I don’t buy now, property will be even more expensive in future,” she said late last month.

Indeed, a sudden revival of real estate fever across China would turn home prices from bust to boom, leaving thousands of first-time home-buyers in the lurch.

In Beijing, average house prices in the capital leapt 27 per cent from January to June, while Shanghai has seen a 78-per-cent spike in residential sales, and the climb has continued since.

But it is not just residents in top-tier cities who are hit. Those in up-and-coming ones such as Tianjin have also been hit as analysts predict these “second-tier cities” will grow even faster than first- tier ones – and prices will be swept along upwards. In Tianjin, property prices rose 2 per cent in May against the previous month on the back of a 19 per cent jump in daily transaction volumes.

Even so, 90 per cent of Tianjin home-seekers in a recent online poll by property portal House Focus are already complaining that prices are way beyond what they can afford.

To these people, it looks like the government’s measures to turn around the property sector – which had slumped a year ago after Beijing took steps to curb speculation and overheating – have worked all too well.

As China’s economy entered rougher waters late last year, Beijing moved to revive the property sector – a key engine of growth. It cut minimum deposits and banks’ mortgage rates for first-time home-buyers. And it also slashed the minimum proportion of capital funding that a developer is required to hold in order to build new projects.

This has sparked a rush among China’s developers back into the market, especially in second-tier cities.

They went on buying sprees for land at record prices, prompting Mr Pan Shiyi, chief of Chinese developer SOHO to declare to local media last month: “The bidders have gone irrational.”

Developers have poured 1.45 trillion yuan into property development in the first half of this year, up almost 10 per cent compared with the same period a year ago, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This has pushed up demand and prices for existing units, as buyers rush in, expecting developers to raise prices soon in a fast-recovering market.

But another, perhaps even more potent, factor in what analysts warn may be a property market bubble is hot money flows. These oozed from the 7.4 trillion yuan of new bank loans released as part of Beijing’s stimulus package in the first half of the year.

Some 30 per cent of the loans meant for projects under the stimulus plan may have been channelled into real estate, Mr Wei Jianing, a senior researcher at the State Council Development and Research Centre, told state media recently.

The aggregate home prices across major Chinese cities had in fact, only reversed last month, correcting a five- month decline and rising 0.2 per cent in June, compared with a year ago, official statistics showed. But analysts say this momentum will only grow faster.

In particular, second-tier cities such as Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenyang and Chengdu are seeing a strong recovery in home prices as their economies pick up pace, spurred by their governments’ stimulus measures, noted Mr Carlby Xie of Colliers International in Beijing.

“These cities are experiencing a very exciting period of property development boom – not only in the residential but also the commercial sector,” he said.

Large-scale developers which had previously concentrated on top-tier cities are starting to venture into second-tier ones where profit margins may be higher.

Meanwhile, demand is growing among increasingly affluent urban residents for new, top-quality housing, added Mr Xie.

This trend is, however, bad news for Mr Zhou Jinhai, 27, a hotel manager in Tianjin who hopes to buy a small apartment before proposing to his girlfriend.

“Growth in second-tier cities and property markets is good – but not when genuine first-time buyers like me have to make sacrifices and bear the cost of it,” he lamented.

中国内地客纷往香港买房

Source : 《联合早报》Aug 03, 2009

（香港讯）中国内地经济急速发展，催生新一代中产阶层，这批消费新力军积极为财富增值，纷纷找投资出路，香港成为热点之一。

据《文汇报》报道，前天内地顾客去港买房，购买30伙红磡海滨南岸房产，涉资达1亿2500万港元（下同，2300万新元）；将军澳领都日前售出的1500个单位中，有15％单位为内地客所买。

内地客消费力强劲，发展商及地产代理均瞄准商机，积极安排各种推广及看楼团。

恒地营业部总经理林达民表示，公司自2003年起，已积极在内地进行推介，及安排内地客去港看楼，至今估计约100次，涉及北京、广州、深圳、上海、温州及四川等省市。

林达民指出，2008年前，香港推售物业的内地客销售额比例，仅占数个百分点，至去年下半年起，已升至约8％至10％，今年上半年更高达15％，反映内地客占比越来越高。未来会加强内地推广力度，如在重庆、成都、西安、长沙、徐州等30个城市进行推介，估计到2010年，内地客消费比重，有机会升至18％。

新世界营业及市务部高级经理刘仲良也指出，近月内地买家入市比例渐升，如旗下元朗翘翠峰，买家由本地客为主，至目前近1成为内地客，其中3、4房单位最受内地买家欢迎，有个别内地买家斥资逾千万元买房。

因此，新世界也计划加强内地宣传攻势，如即将推售的尖沙咀名铸，考虑在北京、上海、杭州、宁波、沈阳及太原等地做宣传，吸引内地客投资。

长实地产投资董事黄思聪也表示，将军澳领都至今售约1500伙，其中3座海景LA、B室售约80伙，内地客比例约占10％至15％。

美联移民顾问行政总裁吉安表示，计划未来每月安排一团去港看楼，每团约40人。

香港置业高级营业董事姚伟南也指出，上周初曾安排约20名上海客去港考察，他相信，未来此类型看楼团会越来越多。

尽管部长提醒不要贸然进场 楼市依旧热火朝天

Source : 《联合早报》Aug 02, 2009

延续过去一周的私宅市场旺热势头，昨天的周末看房人潮继续挤满了示范单位，人们对购房的热情，似乎没有因为部长的“别跟风进场炒楼”公开讲话所减弱。尺价在千元以下的项目尤其受欢迎。

昨天，远东机构位于宏茂桥8道的中景峰（Centro Residences）私人公寓楼盘销售处，吸引了不少公众去看房。虽然该公寓地点靠近组屋区，但售价在每平方英尺千元以上，受访的公众大都表示不论投资或自住都得慎重考虑。尽管如此，现场的布告板上，许多单位都被贴上“已售”字眼，说明了虽然有人因价格“偏高”而踌躇不前，却也有人快速“抢购”。　　

昨天下午，中景峰私人公寓楼盘销售处，两房式单位几乎都贴上“已售”（SOLD）贴纸，单位面积较大的三房式及四房式则还有不少选择机会。（邬福梁摄）

记者在现场所见已推出的两房式单位，几乎所剩无几，但面积较大的三房式及四房式单位则还有不少选择的机会。

据了解，中景峰上月26日举行的预售活动中，除了受邀的潜在买家到场外，也有不少公众“不请自来”，并愿意等候半小时来看房，那时小型单位已售出60％。由于地点靠近AMK Hub，又位于宏茂桥地铁站附近，因此，虽然尺价在1200元起跳，愿意投资的买家仍然不少。据说，周末前推出的110个单位中，就售出了73％（80个）。这个公寓项目共有329个单位。

住在丹戎禺私人公寓的迈格（50岁，商人）昨午到那里看了楼盘。他受访时说，那么高的公寓售价不可思议，他只是来看一看，并相信地点好是它的主要卖点。他也说，组屋区内99年地契公寓，售价却相当于永久地契公寓，这样的价格很可能成为一个新的指标价格。

也有人是为了作比较而看房。对我国经济表乐观的张享耀（34岁，建筑承包商）说：“我是为了投资才去看房，昨天连看了四五个楼盘。我的投资预算在一百万元左右，但这公寓售价稍微超出我的预算。”

以目前的市场情况看来，平均尺价在千元以下的公寓，似乎是比较受欢迎。位于新樟宜路上段的Optima @ Tanah Merah，因平均尺价在790元而被买家抢购，在短短两三天内就狂卖到只剩下三个单位。据发展商丰隆机构发言人昨天告诉本报，共有297个单位的项目，昨天已卖到只剩三个，继大前晚和前天进行抽签后，昨天已停止抽签。

Optima @ Tanah Merah因有人漏夜排队，促使发展商于大前晚提前开放示范单位，也因为购房者过多而通过抽签方式寻找买家。

另一个原本昨天才推出市场的翠丰苑（Meadows @ Peirce），也因为平均尺价在千元以下而深受欢迎。这个位于贝雅士蓄水池对面的公寓，在上个星期的预售活动中，就已售出80％的单位。这个项目共有350个单位。

由于最近私宅买气持续旺热，国家发展部长马宝山日前就公开提醒公众，不要冒然跟风进场炒楼，在必要时政府会采取行动，确保房地产泡沫不会形成。

尽管如此，这股买气不但没有削弱，还越烧越旺。房地产资深分析员麦俊荣昨天受访时说：“人们以为，在经济不景气的时候，房地产价格一定是便宜的。但他们并不晓得，价格其实是以他们愿意出多少钱来定的。换句话说，他们并不是以廉价购得房地产。”

此外，他也指出，人们预期现在购买的房地产在经济复苏时将会增值。但他们并不晓得目前的价格已经接近经济衰退前的水平。

虽然部长认为房地产泡沫还没有形成，但是一名市场人士说，近日的一些新公寓售价，甚至比2007年经济好景时还高约30％，这已显示了局部的小泡沫。

昨天出现在中景峰示范单位的公众卢维家（33岁，工程师）说，靠近组屋区的公寓售价每平方英尺竟然超过1000元，令他感到诧异的是该公寓的小型单位仍卖得不错。他认为，购买上百万元的公寓，不论自住或投资，都必须做好财务规划，以免陷入财务困境。

分析员：投资者从股市转战房市

针对市场的旺热，卓登新达研究部主管陈瑞谨认为，主要是热钱充斥市场。他说：“市场的流动性强劲，一些现金已经流入了股市，这也是为什么股市持续回弹。随着股市自今年3月创下的低位，至今已经回升了83％，投资者如今决定‘转战’房地产市场。”

他不认为目前的房地产热是出于积压需求（pent-up demand），因为大部分的买家都是购买小单位。

新加坡楼市 “热卖季”在延烧

Source :《联合早报》AUg 02, 2009

新加坡热卖季并没有在上星期天结束，反倒是继续延烧。人们仍在大排长龙，只不过消费的场所不是购物中心而是房地产市场。

如果你也对楼市的旺热摸不着头脑，你并不是唯一这么想的人。新加坡正处于经济不景气，楼市应当沉寂才对。对于人们争相买楼的现象，市场上有几种解释。一种是楼价下跌了，如果你需要一所房子，价格下跌了，现在进场应该很划算。

另外一种解释是：买家对新加坡的经济相当乐观，相信它很快就会回弹。不过这其实是在赌，因为全球的经济基础仍继续衰弱，即使经济展望良好，历史也告诉我们不应该操之过急。因为楼价通常要等到经济复苏后才会开始上升，两者之间通常有一个时间差距。这是因为买家一般会在信心恢复后，才购买像房地产这样的重大物品。

人们想在房地产赌一把

人们赶着进场还有另外一个理由，他们的处境促使他们想在房地产赌一把。这样的一种行为可以利用展望理论（prospect theory，也作前景理论）来解释。这个理论是两名心理学家丹尼尔卡内曼（Daniel Kahneman）和特沃斯基（Amos Tversky）在1979年立定的。

展望理论通过实验，利用数学来形容人们如何在权衡风险后作出决定。简单来说，展望理论显示：人们有一种不合理的倾向，那就是在赚钱的时候不愿意冒险赌，但是输钱的时候却会冒险赌一把。

我们用股票投资为例。假设我们以1元买了一只股票，当它上涨至1.20元，大多数人会把股票卖掉，套现盈利。不过，如果股票下跌至0.80元，大多数人却不会止蚀离场——按照展望理论的说法，一般的典型投资者会宁愿赌一把，持守下去，希望价格回升。

从这一点来看，新加坡房地产买家正好落入第二种情况。由于银行利率低，生活成本包括食物和水电费又显著上升，房地产买家必定觉得整个形势不利于自己，特别是看到毕生储蓄和购买能力缩水了。为了扭转这样一个境况，他们宁愿将毕生储蓄赌在：买房。

再者，对这些房地产买家来说，现在也实在没有其他的可靠投资选择。两年前，结构性产品如迷你债券，看似一种可靠的投资选择。这让当时现金充裕的新加坡人相信，自己能够在不失去本金的情况下，享受合理的回报率。当然，现在我们知道这样的想法并不可靠，高回报率的投资产品已不太受欢迎。

对于现金充裕的新加坡人来说，另外一个投资选择是股票。不过，新加坡人一向都认为这是一种风险较高的投资，对最保守的投资群来说，这不是一种选择。此外，近来股市也已经升得相当高了。

剩下的，只有房地产了，这种投资工具向来被视为比股票的风险来得低。再加上最近的楼价比巅峰的水平来得低，现在的房地产买家其实跟热卖季的购物者没有太大的差别，两者都是被大幅的折扣率吸引进场的。

实际上，房地产买家所能享受到的折扣还可能增加，这是因为房地产价格现有的相对稳定性，是由一个现金不流通的市场制造出来的假象。

虽然新加坡房地产买家的行为看似合理，展望理论告诉我们，他们现在的举动未必最符合自己的利益。从统计学的角度看，他们很可能会面对巨额的账面亏损。

接受银行的低利率，然后等？

正确的方法或许是接受银行的低利率，然后等——等到美国的房地产市场真正露出见底的迹象、等到美国消费者再次打开荷包、等到中国可以在政府停止振兴经济后仍继续蓬勃发展。

有人说，购买房地产可以抵御通货膨胀的压力。举例说，当一般物价和租金上涨时，房地产价格也应该继续上扬。这点在理论上没有错。但现实中，一旦通货膨胀出现，中央银行都会进场干预，调高利率来控制通货膨胀。

利率一旦调高，就会对大多数房屋买家分期付款的供楼能力带来沉重的影响。值得注意的是，大多数房地产都没有被租出去，而且大多数买家都靠一份固定的薪水来应付他们的财务负担。一旦他们没有办法应付分期付款，就会被迫卖楼带动楼价下滑。

也有人说，自1970年代开始，亚洲房地产价格都一直在上扬。在许多亚洲人的眼里，房地产是协助他们通往财富的最佳管道。记录也确实显示，大多数亚洲亿万富豪都是靠房地产起家的。

这句话虽然没错，但我们也不能忘记，亚洲房地产价格上涨，也碰上了亚洲经济体自1960年代的崛起。第一代富豪虽然靠房地产致富，第二代却从其他行业赚钱。

亚洲房地产价格暴起的另外一个重要原因是：全世界自1971年开始采用法定货币制度，这种制度让国家银行能够随意印制钞票。在美国联邦储备局的带动下，现在所有国家都在这么做。

这些年来，房地产确实是一种很好的投资工具。融资容易，而且国际间的经济不景气一般不太严重，通常也不会凑在一起发生。但是这样的一个世界已经消失。

当然，这样的世界有一天还是会回来。不过，在那之前，我们最好还是对长久以来，相信房地产价格只会上升的观念持较怀疑的态度。

（本文作者是经济学者，现经营一家独立的咨询公司，欲阅读作者的其他文章，可浏览www.chenjuwei.com )

海外房市卷土重来

Source : 《联合早报》Aug 02, 2009

全球经济逐渐回温，使不少海外房地产投资展卷土重来，近几个月我们看到了来自澳洲、英国、加拿大、泰国等房地产投资展。在本地房价攀升至近2007年底高峰水平的环境下，这些海外房地产投资展，不啻为房产投资者提供了更多、也不一样的选择。

诚然，金融风暴使全球房市大起大落，制造不少投资机会，也使一些手中握有现金的投资者心痒痒，斟酌是否要趁现在进场。第一太平戴维斯（Savills）国际市场营销主管陈彦辛就透露，最近的确看到不少投资者对海外置产的兴趣增加，当中有不少拥有海外经验的年轻买家，对黄金地段的一二房式高档公寓特别钟情。

不过，投资新加坡以外的房地产，对不熟悉当地的投资者来说，却多了“隔一层纱”的迷惘。海外置产，到底该注意什么事项？

在英澳纽泰置产 投资本钱要多少？

一般来说，在纽西兰购买一间一到两房式的高档房产，投资额平均介于30万至50万新元之间。在英国伦敦和澳洲市场，则平均要花上50万到70万元。令人惊讶的是，泰国市场房地产价格也不相上下，平均投资额介于40万到50万元。

至于投资期限，在这些市场购买房地产的持守期则约5到8年。

高力国际（Colliers）国际项目副主管雷森（Edwin Layson）指出，伦敦及纽西兰的房地产市场因供应有限，而被视为目前良好的投资目的地。其中，英国政府正花大钱赶在2012年奥运之前加强交通和基础建设，预计对伦敦中央区的房地产起着拉动作用。

雷森指出，伦敦房贷市场紧缩，反而对海外投资者有利。他说：“这代表当地有更多人宁愿租房子而不是买房子。事实上，不少国际和澳洲银行对借贷给海外投资者购买伦敦房地产的态度颇为开放，这是因为伦敦市场近期经历了价格调整、英镑走软、租屋需求强劲（尤其是学生租屋）和供应有限等。”

对泰国房市应提高警惕

谈到投资伦敦房地产的地点，他建议投资者最好看看靠近第一区和第二环区（zone 1, zone 2），毕竟这些地区靠近市中央、也靠近知名学府。另一方面，投资者也可以看看所谓的“重新发展地带（regenration areas）”比如Clapham Road和Rosberry Place。他认为，这些地段离市中央和地铁及火车站仅步行距离，越来越受投资者和年轻家庭所接受。

另一方面，投资者则最好对泰国房市提高警惕。他说：“目前，不少泰国房地产发展商由于当地银行缩紧发放房贷，而正面对着财务上的困难。”

吉隆坡房产租金回报高

吉隆坡向来是不少新加坡买家的热选，一般倾向在吉隆坡金三角地带，特别是双峰塔、吉隆坡城中城（KLCC）、Mont　Kiara和安邦（Ampang）等地区购买私人或服务公寓。另外，一些比较小众、雅皮的高档地区如Damansara Heights和Bangsar也追捧者众。

在这些地区购买一个优质高楼公寓单位，投资额平均介于100-200万令吉（40万至80万新元）之间。

不过，购买房地产通常是为了取得两种回报：房产升值及租金收入。吉隆坡房地产属于后者。

肯纳格投资银行（Kenanga Investment Bank）一名房地产分析师认为，吉隆坡房产目前的资本价值仍然高于新项目价格，近一轮调整幅度也没有新、美、英和澳等市场来得大。KLCC城中城附近的高楼私宅的尺价平均掉了一成至1159令吉。

鉴于此，吉隆坡房地产较适合那些追求回报稳定和具持续性的投资者。

她说：“投资者可获得不错的租金回报，平均每年达8％。但值得注意的是，目前吉隆坡有许多跨国机构削减外籍员工的预算成本，而这些高楼专门瞄准外国租户，当地人也多宁愿买屋或负担不起租金，在寻找租户时可能会面对困难。”

尽管如此，吉隆坡房市目前的情况仍以买家为大。这名分析师指出，在KLCC城中城和Mont Kiara地区的高楼私宅出现供过于求，一些投资者也可能急于脱售手中房地产套现，为这两个地区的转售市场制造了不少机会。　　

海外置产小贴士

①注意海外房地产的增值特色：如地点、方向、风景、交通便利、靠近国际学校及公共设施、拥有泳池、健身房等设施、公共娱乐中心、高度保全、人口密度低、受到某些族群的欢迎（比如日本或韩国人）等。另外，房地产离市中央的距离和交通流量也是考量。

②避免为了便宜而忽略了“价值”

陈彦辛建议，投资者可以使用一项昵称为“PAP”的投资策略：

P－产品（product）：注意房地产和发展商素质，以及项目种类。毕竟，在房地产项目将来的维持及管理方面，发展商扮演了相当重要的角色，也势必影响到房价的起伏。

A－地点（Area）：不但要精选地段，也要注意房子面朝哪一个方向、处于项目中的哪个单位。

P－价格（price）：跟风买低价房产是不少投资者常犯的毛病。一般上，某一个地区的项目便宜，并不代表它20年后就会升值。事实上，不少房地产过了十几年还是一样便宜。

③注意当地的法律／税务制度

其中一例为吉隆坡房产。尽管马来西亚政府已放宽外资条例，不再限制外国投资者在购买价值50万令吉以上的资产时须获得海外投资委员会（Foreign Investment Committee，简称FIC）批准，但是，投资者仍需取得州政府的批准。这是因为海外投资委员会隶属联邦政府，与州政府是分开的。

与此同时，当地的不动产所得税（Real Property Gains Tax）豁免制度也并非永久性的制度，值得注意。

④查询买家的类型

通常，一个项目的买家若多数来自国外，该项目的风险回报比例也相对更高。　

⑤审视项目的出租潜力

通常，面积介于1000至1500平方英尺的单位最容易出租，主要是因为外籍员工通常只身或带小家庭入住，而跨国机构为员工在已发展城市所提供的住宿津贴也不再丰厚。

房地产热继续延烧 一些项目提前开放

Source : 《联合早报》Aug 01, 2009

房地产热继续延烧，一些原本在这个周末才开放给公众选购的项目，也几乎都在压力下提前开放。接下来除了会有一两个新楼盘登场，过去曾推出、但未卖完的一些项目也会上场抢滩。

但分析师和发展商指出，买家争相进场不一定就意味房地产泡沫会因此形成。

除了Optima @ Tanah Merah、提前开放给公众认购的项目还包括位于贝雅士蓄水池对面的翠丰苑（Meadows @ Peirce）。

原定在今天才发售的翠丰苑也提前开放，发展商推出的350个单位，已售出了80％，平均尺价是每平方英尺880元。（华业集团提供）

据了解，远东机构位于宏茂桥地铁站旁的Centro，目前也已售出了110个单位中的80个（约73％），价格从每平方英尺1200元起跳。　　

位于新樟宜路上段的Optima @ Tanah Merah，前晚提早开放，发展商丰隆集团在晚上8时开放示范单位，让原本在外排队，打算漏夜等候的300人进入示范单位，并在9时半停止收集支票，开始抽签。

40人竞标一单位

据了解，其中一个四楼的二卧房式单位（1076平方英尺左右），还出现40人竞标的局面。

集团过后成功为120个单位找到买家，让排在场外的人龙消失，平均尺价是每平方英尺790元。

这个项目昨天下午2时再放出另外156个单位，让第二批公众挑选，并在4时后停止收集支票，进行抽签。集团透露，那些前晚没有标到单位的买家，昨天不享有优先权。　　

这个99年地契的项目距离丹那美拉地铁站只有30公尺，共有297个单位，分一至四卧房式单位，以及18个顶层豪宅单位。由丰隆集团旗下的公司Tripartite（简称TID）发展。　　

同时，原定今天才推出市场的翠丰苑也提前开放，继上个星期预售时售出180个单位后，目前已再售出另外100个单位。也就是说，发展商推出的350个单位已售出了80％，平均尺价是每平方英尺880元。

但翠丰苑的发展商华业集团（UOL）透露，目前，较多买家（55％）选购三卧房式或顶层豪宅(penthouse）等大型单位，同时，选择以利息摊还计划(IAS)的买家只有25％。

集团营运总裁粘为信因此相信，积压需求（pent-up demand）是促使买家购买翠丰苑的最主要因素。

他说，70％的买家来自附近的汤申路地区，非常熟悉这个地区，也明白这里的永久地契地段相当稀有。几乎所有买家都是本地人或永久居民，只有5％是外地人。

他说：“其实，75％的售出单位，成交价格都是在100万元以上。”

综合以上所有因素，他相信，买家是以实际需求出发，因此房地产泡沫形成的可能性不大。

这个永久地契共管公寓项目，位于汤申路上段，拥有479个单位，单位分一至五卧房式单位，最小的单位只有514平方英尺，最大的顶层豪宅3068平方英尺。

另一个可能在这个或下个周末登场的，是位于圣迈克路的Air Stream，据了解，这个永久地契项目的尺价可能定在每平方英尺1150元以上。这个项目有70个单位，都属于面积较小的单位。

市场人士也透露，长春产业（Allgreen）曾在去年推出，位于诺维娜的项目VIVA，也可能会在近期重新登场。同时，城市发展也会继续售卖莉雅苑（Livia）共管公寓的剩余单位。

国家发展马宝山日前指出，尽管看到市场出现投机现象，但政府会采取必要行动，确保房产泡沫不会形成。但他也表示，不清楚这回的买家是因积压需求高，还是被诱人的折扣或低房贷利率吸引进场。

高纬物业新加坡董事经理韩永利认为，这是及时的提醒，希望投资者量力而为，但他对房地产泡沫的解释是：除非价格凌驾上一次的巅峰价格，完全脱离经济基本面，否则现在的情况应该称不上是房产泡沫。

他指出，从07年的巅峰到谷底，价格下跌了27％，现在只回涨了5％，距离上回巅峰还有距离。

高力国际星期三的房地产拍卖活动也吸引了300多人出席，场面非常壮观，有些人还因为无法挤入而折返。

但高力国际执行董事兼拍卖官黄黎明指出，虽然出席率高，买气旺，但买家对价格还是谨慎的。

她说：“我们没有看到任何投机活动出现，就算是买来投资，投资者也将眼光放在中期投资。”