Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008
Generally, they welcome more sites on the reserve list
THE Government Land Sales (GLS) programme for the second half of this year has triggered mixed responses from property analysts.
While some read the moderate supply as a plus for property prices, others feel it reaffirms the weak market sentiment.
The GLS list for the second half of 2008 sees 13 new sites - comprising six residential sites, three commercial sites, three hotel sites and one white site. That's lower than the 17 new sites released in the first half.
Of the total 40 sites being offered in the second half, there are only eight confirmed sites, down from 11 in the first, and 32 are on the reserve list, up from 26.
'We see the 2H08 GLS list as reflective of the current market sentiment, following softer bids and the non-award of three tenders in the last six months,' says Citi analyst Wendy Koh.
Westcomb Research, however, views the reduced supply positively, saying that it 'will ease the current urge of developers to release their existing land bank under the current weak demand and reduce downward price pressure'.
Property stocks were a mixed bag on Friday, with CapitaLand up 36 cents at $6.08, Keppel Land up seven cents at $5.20, and GuocoLand down 25 cents at $2.18.
Generally, analysts welcome the market-driven approach to have more sites on the reserve list, in which sites are put up for sale only after developers have indicated interest by committing to a minimum bid.
'It affords the market some breathing space and developers and the market should read the decrease in the confirmed list quantum positively,' says DBS Vickers analyst Adrian Chua in a report.
Deutsche Bank notes that choice of sites was strategic in driving the development of new areas under the Master Plan 2008. The inclusion of four mass-market residential sites in the reserve list, it says, could be insurance against a sharp upswing in sentiment.
Moreover, the lack of supply of CBD office sites should provide relief to the prime office segment and landlords, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a report. 'Muted new supply for both residential and office versus previous years should provide some relief and improve sentiment at the margin.'
Deutsche Bank analysts have pegged a 'buy' call to City Developments and Keppel Land, but add that they continue to prefer Reits over the developers.
DBS Vickers kept its 'overweight' rating on the property sector on belief that the second-half GLS programme 'does inspire confidence in the planning of land supply in Singapore, ensuring sustainable and steady growth in the property sector in the medium-term'.
Its top pick among developers is City Developments for its proxy to the residential market. It has a 'buy' call on F&N for its predominantly mass-market land bank and Allgreen for its mid-tier/mass-market exposure.
Other analysts were less sanguine. Credit Suisse analyst Tricia Song says that she continues to see negative headwinds for the Singapore property sector in the near term, given potentially rising interest rates, construction costs, supply completions and falling rents. She is keeping her 'underweight' call on the property sector, with 'underweight' ratings for City Developments and Wing Tai, but 'neutral' calls for CapitaLand, Allgreen and Keppel Land.
For Nomura, the sound supply outlook for residential units - which the Urban Redevelopment Authority estimates to be 59,545 completed units between end-2007 and end-2011 - is 'unnerving'. It hence retained its bearish stance on the residential sector where it foresees further downside pressures in asset prices from marginal speculative sellers. It has a 'neutral' rating on City Developments and Keppel Land and a 'reduce' rating on CapitaLand.
Monday, June 23, 2008
US Housing Rebound To Be Prolonged: Harvard Study
Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008
NEW YORK - Record foreclosures and limited access to credit will make it harder than usual to rebound from this US housing market slump, the worst at least since World War Two, according to a Harvard University study on Monday.
A two-year home price drop is eating into housing wealth, curbing consumer spending and slicing away economic growth.
A two-year home price drop is eating into housing wealth, curbing consumer spending and slicing away economic growth
This is unlikely to change until potential home buyers are convinced that prices have stopped tumbling, the study found.
The downturn has room to run.
The highest home loan rates in nine months and strict lending standards are keeping buyers on the sidelines, even after aggressive Federal Reserve intervention and a 16 per cent national home price slide from the 2006 peak, by some measures.
'Historically, housing markets recover only after the economy has entered a recession and a combination of falling mortgage interest rates and house prices have improved housing affordability,' Nicolas P Retsinas, director of the Joint Centre for Housing Studies at Harvard, said in a statement.
'It will take longer this time to rebound given the unusually high levels of foreclosures and constrained credit markets,' he said. 'The slump in housing markets has not yet run its full course.'
Price declines and mortgage defaults are the worst on records dating back to the 1960s and 1970s, the study noted.
Job losses and falling prices intensify risk of foreclosure.
The number of homes entering foreclosure nearly doubled to 1.3 million in 2007 from about 660,000 in 2005.
Payment shock after rate resets on some adjustable loans, many made to higher-risk borrowers, has propelled owners into foreclosure. For others in trouble, falling prices leave them with mortgages larger than the home's value, and they are often unable to refinance or sell.
Also, new homebuilding and house sales rival the worst downturns in the post World War Two era.
The number of homeowners paying more than half of their income on housing surged by 35 per cent to 8.8 million in 2006 from 6.5 million five years earlier, according to the study, the centre's 20th annual broad report on US housing trends.
After rising for years, the US homeownership rate fell to 67.8 per cent at the end of 2007 from an all-time high 69 per cent in 2004.
'As investors demand a higher return for assumed risk and limit credit to riskier borrowers, costs are rising for all types of mortgage, consumer and corporate loans,' the centre said in a press release. 'Many would-be borrowers are now finding it impossible to get loans at any price.'
Economic weakness does not bode well for income growth in the short run, and housing cost pressures are unlikely to lighten in the long term. Much of employment growth will be in part-time and low-wage positions, the study said.
'The sombre conclusion is that if the economy slips into recession or job losses keep racking up, household growth and homeownership demand could fall even more,' the centre said in the release.
Barring a prolonged period of serious economic decline, the study projects household growth of about 14.5 million over the next 10 years. The main risk to that outlook is a drop in immigration from its recent 1.2 million annual pace due to weaker labour markets.
To get home affordability back to levels of 2000, before a five-year record home price and sales surge, 'would take some combination of large price declines, interest rate reductions, rent deflation and unprecedented real income growth', the study said.
Even then, homes were out of reach for many 'vulnerable households' often made up of low-wage workers, families with children and veterans. -- REUTERS
NEW YORK - Record foreclosures and limited access to credit will make it harder than usual to rebound from this US housing market slump, the worst at least since World War Two, according to a Harvard University study on Monday.
A two-year home price drop is eating into housing wealth, curbing consumer spending and slicing away economic growth.
A two-year home price drop is eating into housing wealth, curbing consumer spending and slicing away economic growthThis is unlikely to change until potential home buyers are convinced that prices have stopped tumbling, the study found.
The downturn has room to run.
The highest home loan rates in nine months and strict lending standards are keeping buyers on the sidelines, even after aggressive Federal Reserve intervention and a 16 per cent national home price slide from the 2006 peak, by some measures.
'Historically, housing markets recover only after the economy has entered a recession and a combination of falling mortgage interest rates and house prices have improved housing affordability,' Nicolas P Retsinas, director of the Joint Centre for Housing Studies at Harvard, said in a statement.
'It will take longer this time to rebound given the unusually high levels of foreclosures and constrained credit markets,' he said. 'The slump in housing markets has not yet run its full course.'
Price declines and mortgage defaults are the worst on records dating back to the 1960s and 1970s, the study noted.
Job losses and falling prices intensify risk of foreclosure.
The number of homes entering foreclosure nearly doubled to 1.3 million in 2007 from about 660,000 in 2005.
Payment shock after rate resets on some adjustable loans, many made to higher-risk borrowers, has propelled owners into foreclosure. For others in trouble, falling prices leave them with mortgages larger than the home's value, and they are often unable to refinance or sell.
Also, new homebuilding and house sales rival the worst downturns in the post World War Two era.
The number of homeowners paying more than half of their income on housing surged by 35 per cent to 8.8 million in 2006 from 6.5 million five years earlier, according to the study, the centre's 20th annual broad report on US housing trends.
After rising for years, the US homeownership rate fell to 67.8 per cent at the end of 2007 from an all-time high 69 per cent in 2004.
'As investors demand a higher return for assumed risk and limit credit to riskier borrowers, costs are rising for all types of mortgage, consumer and corporate loans,' the centre said in a press release. 'Many would-be borrowers are now finding it impossible to get loans at any price.'
Economic weakness does not bode well for income growth in the short run, and housing cost pressures are unlikely to lighten in the long term. Much of employment growth will be in part-time and low-wage positions, the study said.
'The sombre conclusion is that if the economy slips into recession or job losses keep racking up, household growth and homeownership demand could fall even more,' the centre said in the release.
Barring a prolonged period of serious economic decline, the study projects household growth of about 14.5 million over the next 10 years. The main risk to that outlook is a drop in immigration from its recent 1.2 million annual pace due to weaker labour markets.
To get home affordability back to levels of 2000, before a five-year record home price and sales surge, 'would take some combination of large price declines, interest rate reductions, rent deflation and unprecedented real income growth', the study said.
Even then, homes were out of reach for many 'vulnerable households' often made up of low-wage workers, families with children and veterans. -- REUTERS
China To Change Property Investment Rule
Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008
BEIJING - China's Commerce Ministry will soon allow provinces to register inbound foreign investment in property, which would smooth the path for money to flow into the sector from abroad, the South China Morning Post said on Monday.
China has been tightening rules on foreign investment in its real estate sector to prevent it from overheating. Authorities last year ordered foreign investors to register with the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing after getting approvals from local governments.
The mooted rule change would shift the registration responsibility to provincial governments from Beijing. Provinces tend to be more keen on attracting investment.
The Chinese-language 21st Century Business Herald last week also reported the rule change, but quoted a Commerce Ministry as saying: 'The policy direction will not change. The new rule simply means you've got to register in a different place.'
However, the Hong Kong-based SCMP quoted an unnamed market source as saying: 'It will be a lot easier to get deals done if that's the case.'
Provincial governments often take less than a month to approve a deal. Registration in Beijing takes up to six months, which has discouraged some foreign investors.
China's property market has cooled a touch this year, with prices declining in some cities and transaction volumes down.
Many in the market think Beijing may ease restrictions on the property industry, which is a pillar of the national economy and grows at an annual rate of about 30 per cent. -- REUTERS
BEIJING - China's Commerce Ministry will soon allow provinces to register inbound foreign investment in property, which would smooth the path for money to flow into the sector from abroad, the South China Morning Post said on Monday.
China has been tightening rules on foreign investment in its real estate sector to prevent it from overheating. Authorities last year ordered foreign investors to register with the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing after getting approvals from local governments.
The mooted rule change would shift the registration responsibility to provincial governments from Beijing. Provinces tend to be more keen on attracting investment.
The Chinese-language 21st Century Business Herald last week also reported the rule change, but quoted a Commerce Ministry as saying: 'The policy direction will not change. The new rule simply means you've got to register in a different place.'
However, the Hong Kong-based SCMP quoted an unnamed market source as saying: 'It will be a lot easier to get deals done if that's the case.'
Provincial governments often take less than a month to approve a deal. Registration in Beijing takes up to six months, which has discouraged some foreign investors.
China's property market has cooled a touch this year, with prices declining in some cities and transaction volumes down.
Many in the market think Beijing may ease restrictions on the property industry, which is a pillar of the national economy and grows at an annual rate of about 30 per cent. -- REUTERS
Asia Property Investment Up 27% In 2007
Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008
Property investment in Asia reached a record US$121 billion in 2007, according to consultants Jones Lang LaSalle, up 27 per cent from the previous year.
And while the credit crunch took its toll in Europe and North America in the second half of the year, pushing down global transaction value by 8 per cent from the second half of 2007, investment in Asia surged 22 per cent in the last six months.
Data from Jones Lang LaSalle shows transaction volumes globally in the first five months of 2008 were 40 per cent lower than in the same period last year, dragged down by weaker activity in Europe and the United States. -- REUTERS
Property investment in Asia reached a record US$121 billion in 2007, according to consultants Jones Lang LaSalle, up 27 per cent from the previous year.
And while the credit crunch took its toll in Europe and North America in the second half of the year, pushing down global transaction value by 8 per cent from the second half of 2007, investment in Asia surged 22 per cent in the last six months. Data from Jones Lang LaSalle shows transaction volumes globally in the first five months of 2008 were 40 per cent lower than in the same period last year, dragged down by weaker activity in Europe and the United States. -- REUTERS
Lian Beng Wins $117 Mln Construction Projects
Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008
Construction firm, Lian Beng Group Ltd, has won three new construction and civil engineering contracts worth a total of $117 million.
Among the contracts were two construction projects for the private residential sector.
The first of which was a $36.2 million contract awarded by Sing Holdings (Bellerive) Pte Ltd for the construction of Bellerive Condominium, a private residential development located at the junction of Keng Chin Road and Ewe Boon Road.
Work on Bellerive Condominium will involve the construction of 51 apartment units within a 15-storey block, and is scheduled to be complete by July 2010. The cost of constructing the Bellerive development works out to about $585 per sq ft.
Separately, the group won a $50.4 million contract from Lafe (Emerald Hill) Development Pte Ltd, to construct 33 private residential apartments at Emerald Hill Road.
The construction cost of the Emerald Hill development is estimated to be $668 per sq ft and work at this development is expected to be complete around the fourth quarter of 2010.
The group has also secured a $30 million civil engineering project, which was awarded by the Public Utilities Board, for a part of Singapore's network of NEWater pipelines.
For this project, Lian Beng has teamed up with Ri Dong Corporation Pte Ltd in a 50-50 joint-venture.
The civil engineering project will involve the design and construction of a NEWater pipeline running from Changi NEWater Plant to Jurong, Tuas and Jurong Island.
Work on the NEWater pipeline project is expected to be complete in July 2009.
With these latest contract wins, Lian Beng's orderbook stands at about $800 million. -- BT Newsroom
Construction firm, Lian Beng Group Ltd, has won three new construction and civil engineering contracts worth a total of $117 million.
Among the contracts were two construction projects for the private residential sector.The first of which was a $36.2 million contract awarded by Sing Holdings (Bellerive) Pte Ltd for the construction of Bellerive Condominium, a private residential development located at the junction of Keng Chin Road and Ewe Boon Road.
Work on Bellerive Condominium will involve the construction of 51 apartment units within a 15-storey block, and is scheduled to be complete by July 2010. The cost of constructing the Bellerive development works out to about $585 per sq ft.
Separately, the group won a $50.4 million contract from Lafe (Emerald Hill) Development Pte Ltd, to construct 33 private residential apartments at Emerald Hill Road.
The construction cost of the Emerald Hill development is estimated to be $668 per sq ft and work at this development is expected to be complete around the fourth quarter of 2010.
The group has also secured a $30 million civil engineering project, which was awarded by the Public Utilities Board, for a part of Singapore's network of NEWater pipelines.
For this project, Lian Beng has teamed up with Ri Dong Corporation Pte Ltd in a 50-50 joint-venture.
The civil engineering project will involve the design and construction of a NEWater pipeline running from Changi NEWater Plant to Jurong, Tuas and Jurong Island.
Work on the NEWater pipeline project is expected to be complete in July 2009.
With these latest contract wins, Lian Beng's orderbook stands at about $800 million. -- BT Newsroom
Indiabulls Too Bullish On Prospects
Source : The Business Times, June 19, 2008
THE latest real estate investment trust (Reit) to list in Singapore, Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust, didn't do too well when it went public two weeks ago.
The Reit raised $262.5 million from its initial public offer, lower than the maximum $288.8 million it had sought earlier. Shares were priced at $1 each, at the bottom of an indicated price band of $1-$1.10. The units closed at 92 cents yesterday.
The lower IPO pricing came even after an extension of the retail tranche offer.
But weak market sentiment was not the only reason for the poor IPO performance - there are also questions about the Reit's attractiveness and its ability to deliver.
Let's start off with the two properties in its portfolio - both uncompleted at the time of listing. One Indiabulls Centre (due for completion by the end of this month) and Elphinstone Mills (expected to be completed by the end of this year) are both located quite some distance from the main central business district in Mumbai.
Moreover, the trust's advertised yields are quite bullish. At $1 a unit, dividend per unit (DPU) yield is expected to be 4.0 per cent for next year and a rather high 9.4 per cent for 2010.
The financial assumptions behind the numbers are pretty aggressive. For next year, the property income margin is expected to be 88 per cent. For 2010, the projected margin comes to 90 per cent. The projected yields are also dependent on building completion and leasing.
This year's income delivery, for example, assumes One Indiabulls Centre's completion and leasing by around end-June and Elphinstone Mills by around end-November.
The Reit also expects occupancies to be in the range of 95 per cent for its office and mall components once it receives the occupancy certificates (India's equivalent of Singapore's temporary occupation permits).
But at the time of listing, One Indiabulls Centre had secured leases for some 988,000 sq ft of space out of a total of some 1.87 billion sq ft of office and retail space. This means that just over half - 53 per cent - of the lettable area has been leased.
And over at Elphinstone Mills, no leases had been locked in at the time of the listing.
What all these mean are that while units in the Reit are priced on completed building valuations, they still bear the risks of completion delays, project costs running over, failures to secure the various needed approvals from authorities as well as leasing risks.
In the light of this, investors might be better off adopting a 'wait-and-see' approach and buying into the trust once the projects are completed and leased out.
There is also another interesting nugget in the prospectus - some of the Reit's directors, who are also directors of Indiabulls Financial Services Limited (IBFSL) and its subsidiaries, have been named in legal proceedings initiated by IBFSL's clients.
The trust says that 'given the nature of the legal proceedings, the trustee-manager is of the view that the amount claimed by the claimants is not material and that the proceedings are in the ordinary course of business of the Indiabulls Group'.
But more details would be welcome.
With all this in mind, one is left wondering why Indiabulls pushed through a listing at a time when the market is weak, especially since units in the trust are tightly controlled. Most of the major shareholders have agreed to certain lock-up arrangements.
On Monday, Unitech Ltd, India's second-biggest property firm, scrapped plans for a US$600 million Reit offering in Singapore and, instead, turned to private equity firms to fund its expansion.
Maybe Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust would have been better served taking the same route.
THE latest real estate investment trust (Reit) to list in Singapore, Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust, didn't do too well when it went public two weeks ago.
The Reit raised $262.5 million from its initial public offer, lower than the maximum $288.8 million it had sought earlier. Shares were priced at $1 each, at the bottom of an indicated price band of $1-$1.10. The units closed at 92 cents yesterday.
The lower IPO pricing came even after an extension of the retail tranche offer.
But weak market sentiment was not the only reason for the poor IPO performance - there are also questions about the Reit's attractiveness and its ability to deliver.
Let's start off with the two properties in its portfolio - both uncompleted at the time of listing. One Indiabulls Centre (due for completion by the end of this month) and Elphinstone Mills (expected to be completed by the end of this year) are both located quite some distance from the main central business district in Mumbai.
Moreover, the trust's advertised yields are quite bullish. At $1 a unit, dividend per unit (DPU) yield is expected to be 4.0 per cent for next year and a rather high 9.4 per cent for 2010.
The financial assumptions behind the numbers are pretty aggressive. For next year, the property income margin is expected to be 88 per cent. For 2010, the projected margin comes to 90 per cent. The projected yields are also dependent on building completion and leasing.
This year's income delivery, for example, assumes One Indiabulls Centre's completion and leasing by around end-June and Elphinstone Mills by around end-November.
The Reit also expects occupancies to be in the range of 95 per cent for its office and mall components once it receives the occupancy certificates (India's equivalent of Singapore's temporary occupation permits).
But at the time of listing, One Indiabulls Centre had secured leases for some 988,000 sq ft of space out of a total of some 1.87 billion sq ft of office and retail space. This means that just over half - 53 per cent - of the lettable area has been leased.
And over at Elphinstone Mills, no leases had been locked in at the time of the listing.
What all these mean are that while units in the Reit are priced on completed building valuations, they still bear the risks of completion delays, project costs running over, failures to secure the various needed approvals from authorities as well as leasing risks.
In the light of this, investors might be better off adopting a 'wait-and-see' approach and buying into the trust once the projects are completed and leased out.
There is also another interesting nugget in the prospectus - some of the Reit's directors, who are also directors of Indiabulls Financial Services Limited (IBFSL) and its subsidiaries, have been named in legal proceedings initiated by IBFSL's clients.
The trust says that 'given the nature of the legal proceedings, the trustee-manager is of the view that the amount claimed by the claimants is not material and that the proceedings are in the ordinary course of business of the Indiabulls Group'.
But more details would be welcome.
With all this in mind, one is left wondering why Indiabulls pushed through a listing at a time when the market is weak, especially since units in the trust are tightly controlled. Most of the major shareholders have agreed to certain lock-up arrangements.
On Monday, Unitech Ltd, India's second-biggest property firm, scrapped plans for a US$600 million Reit offering in Singapore and, instead, turned to private equity firms to fund its expansion.
Maybe Indiabulls Properties Investment Trust would have been better served taking the same route.
Asian Economies Urged To Tighten Monetary Policy To Stave Off Inflation
Source : Channel NewsAsia, 23 June 2008
Asian economies are not doing enough to tighten their monetary policies in the face of rising costs, according to Henderson Global Investors.
It said that currencies must be allowed to appreciate and fuel subsidies scrapped if the region wants to bring inflation to heel.
Asian economies are feeling the heat from record high oil prices and rising inflation. And a growing number have been forced to relook at their fuel subsidies.
According to Henderson Global Investors, Asian economies must bite the bullet and avoid shot-term gains.
It said the current combination of oil subsidies, artificially-depressed currencies and untempered growth have kept demand high, despite supply being unable to keep up.
Tony Dolphin, Director of Economics and Asset Allocation, Henderson Global Investors, said: "Central banks have begun to accept that global growth has been too strong, particularly in Asia and emerging economies.
"So what we need to do is see the monetary authorities in those regions raise interest rates to bring growth down to a level to which the world economy, particularly the oil price, can cope."
Henderson Global Investors highlighted Japan as one economy that has been been able to dodge the bullet this time around. Previously suffering from deflation, the current inflationary pressures have served to stabilise the Japanese position instead.
Mr Dolphin said: "The fact that food and oil prices are rising has lifted its inflation rate to just over one per cent, so it's gone from too low an inflation rate to one that's quite normal.
"As a reaction to the oil prices that we saw in the 70's and 80's, Japan has taken enormous steps to make sure that it's very energy efficient. And so while the rise in oil prices is still a bad thing for Japan, it's less of a bad (thing) than it is for many other economies."
For investors reviewing their portfolios, Henderson Global Investors said the best option is to play it defensively, rather than just switching out to other assets, as all classes are likely to be depressed.
Mr Dolphin said: "If you're in an economy where inflation is running ahead of interest rates, then you've got very little option at all. You are likely to see your real savings erode. It doesn't make sense to jump into other assets because they are likely to be under pressure too." - CNA/ms
Asian economies are not doing enough to tighten their monetary policies in the face of rising costs, according to Henderson Global Investors.
It said that currencies must be allowed to appreciate and fuel subsidies scrapped if the region wants to bring inflation to heel.
Asian economies are feeling the heat from record high oil prices and rising inflation. And a growing number have been forced to relook at their fuel subsidies. According to Henderson Global Investors, Asian economies must bite the bullet and avoid shot-term gains.
It said the current combination of oil subsidies, artificially-depressed currencies and untempered growth have kept demand high, despite supply being unable to keep up.
Tony Dolphin, Director of Economics and Asset Allocation, Henderson Global Investors, said: "Central banks have begun to accept that global growth has been too strong, particularly in Asia and emerging economies.
"So what we need to do is see the monetary authorities in those regions raise interest rates to bring growth down to a level to which the world economy, particularly the oil price, can cope."
Henderson Global Investors highlighted Japan as one economy that has been been able to dodge the bullet this time around. Previously suffering from deflation, the current inflationary pressures have served to stabilise the Japanese position instead.
Mr Dolphin said: "The fact that food and oil prices are rising has lifted its inflation rate to just over one per cent, so it's gone from too low an inflation rate to one that's quite normal.
"As a reaction to the oil prices that we saw in the 70's and 80's, Japan has taken enormous steps to make sure that it's very energy efficient. And so while the rise in oil prices is still a bad thing for Japan, it's less of a bad (thing) than it is for many other economies."
For investors reviewing their portfolios, Henderson Global Investors said the best option is to play it defensively, rather than just switching out to other assets, as all classes are likely to be depressed.
Mr Dolphin said: "If you're in an economy where inflation is running ahead of interest rates, then you've got very little option at all. You are likely to see your real savings erode. It doesn't make sense to jump into other assets because they are likely to be under pressure too." - CNA/ms
NTUC Chief Warns That Stagflation Is The Worst Case Scenario S'pore Could Face
Source : Channel NewsAsia, 22 June 2008
NTUC Chief Lim Swee Say warned that stagflation is the worst case scenario Singapore can face at this time. During a visit to Sengkang West on Sunday, he added that this can arise if Singaporeans are unable to survive the high costs of living while facing a stagnating economy.
Mr Lim observed that half a year ago, Singaporeans and many citizens in the Asia Pacific region were enjoying a buoyant economy. But that changed with the sub-prime crisis in the United States.
But Mr Lim said cutting taxes or giving broad-based subsidies will not solve the problem of inflation. Instead a targeted approach would be used to help those struggling with higher costs of living.
With a slowing global economy, residents at the dialogue session expressed their concern with rising costs such as ERP charges.
Related Video :- http://tinyurl.com/6hpgnl
Mr Lim said: "It's not the purpose of the government to make the people suffer more. It doesn't make sense that our government wants the people to suffer under high inflation. The purpose of ERP increases is not to increase revenue for the government. The one and only purpose of ERP increases is to manage traffic congestion in Singapore. If there is no traffic congestion, there will be no ERP increases."
Mr Lim said the government is trying to lighten inflationary pressures but will not offer popular solutions.
He said: "You did not see us cutting taxes or reducing GST credits because we adopt the approach where we subject everybody to the proper market discipline. If the market, oil or food costs this much, then everybody pay the market rates"
Mr Lim explained that the best way to cope with inflation is to understand the fact that not everyone is affected by inflation the same way. That’s why it makes sense for the government to have a targeted approach in assisting the different segments of Singapore society to cope with high inflation and the high cost of living.
This includes the three billion Singapore dollars in growth dividends and other forms of assistance which the government's been giving out. - CNA/vm
NTUC Chief Lim Swee Say warned that stagflation is the worst case scenario Singapore can face at this time. During a visit to Sengkang West on Sunday, he added that this can arise if Singaporeans are unable to survive the high costs of living while facing a stagnating economy.
Mr Lim observed that half a year ago, Singaporeans and many citizens in the Asia Pacific region were enjoying a buoyant economy. But that changed with the sub-prime crisis in the United States. But Mr Lim said cutting taxes or giving broad-based subsidies will not solve the problem of inflation. Instead a targeted approach would be used to help those struggling with higher costs of living.
With a slowing global economy, residents at the dialogue session expressed their concern with rising costs such as ERP charges.
Related Video :- http://tinyurl.com/6hpgnl
Mr Lim said: "It's not the purpose of the government to make the people suffer more. It doesn't make sense that our government wants the people to suffer under high inflation. The purpose of ERP increases is not to increase revenue for the government. The one and only purpose of ERP increases is to manage traffic congestion in Singapore. If there is no traffic congestion, there will be no ERP increases."
Mr Lim said the government is trying to lighten inflationary pressures but will not offer popular solutions.
He said: "You did not see us cutting taxes or reducing GST credits because we adopt the approach where we subject everybody to the proper market discipline. If the market, oil or food costs this much, then everybody pay the market rates"
Mr Lim explained that the best way to cope with inflation is to understand the fact that not everyone is affected by inflation the same way. That’s why it makes sense for the government to have a targeted approach in assisting the different segments of Singapore society to cope with high inflation and the high cost of living.
This includes the three billion Singapore dollars in growth dividends and other forms of assistance which the government's been giving out. - CNA/vm
Sales of Dakota Residences encouraging
Source : The Business Times, June 23, 2008
A CLOSELY watched property market preview has yielded encouraging results amidst the current subdued market conditions.
Ho Bee Investment and NTUC Choice Homes have sold 80 units at Dakota Residences over the weekend. The developers have so far released 122 units in the 348-unit project at an average price of $970 per square foot - lower than the $1,000 to $1,100 psf Ho Bee had indicated in June 2007 when the developers emerged as the top bidders for the 99-year leasehold site.
Good location: Buyers like the project's proximity to Dakota MRT Station and the popular Old Airport Road Food Centre
No deferred payment is available for the 19-storey condominium project, which will front Geylang River.
Buyers are predominantly Singaporeans, many with private home addresses. 'The majority of them live in the East Coast area, some even in landed homes. We have quite a number of professionals among the buyers,' said Ho Bee executive director Ong Chong Hua.
'It shows that if you price your project right, there are still buyers. There's quite a bit of pent-up demand. Also buyers like the project's proximity to Dakota MRT Station and the popular Old Airport Road Food Centre. The location is also very close to the popular East Coast area,' he added.
The plans for the Sports Hub and and Kallang Riverside area have also helped to stir interest in the project, Mr Ong reckons.
The project comprises a mix of two, three and four-bedroom apartments and penthouses. Both penthouses in the stack of 122 units released so far have been sold - a 3,700 sq ft unit went for $3.37 million and the other, a 2,605 sq ft unit, fetched $2.62 million. A typical three-bedroom apartment of about 1,300 sq ft in the development costs about $1.3 million on average.
Ho Bee and NTUC Choice Homes paid $524 psf per plot ratio at a state tender last year for the Dakota Residences site, which attracted a whopping 15 bids.
Asked if the developers will consider raising Dakota Residences' selling prices, Mr Ong said: 'We'll review it but any price adjustment will be moderate. Sentiment is still fragile. If you're too aggressive in raising prices, you run the risk of stalling the sales momentum.'
Urban Redevelopment Authority data released last week showed developers sold 441 new private homes in May, up from 284 units in April.
A CLOSELY watched property market preview has yielded encouraging results amidst the current subdued market conditions.
Ho Bee Investment and NTUC Choice Homes have sold 80 units at Dakota Residences over the weekend. The developers have so far released 122 units in the 348-unit project at an average price of $970 per square foot - lower than the $1,000 to $1,100 psf Ho Bee had indicated in June 2007 when the developers emerged as the top bidders for the 99-year leasehold site.
Good location: Buyers like the project's proximity to Dakota MRT Station and the popular Old Airport Road Food CentreNo deferred payment is available for the 19-storey condominium project, which will front Geylang River.
Buyers are predominantly Singaporeans, many with private home addresses. 'The majority of them live in the East Coast area, some even in landed homes. We have quite a number of professionals among the buyers,' said Ho Bee executive director Ong Chong Hua.
'It shows that if you price your project right, there are still buyers. There's quite a bit of pent-up demand. Also buyers like the project's proximity to Dakota MRT Station and the popular Old Airport Road Food Centre. The location is also very close to the popular East Coast area,' he added.
The plans for the Sports Hub and and Kallang Riverside area have also helped to stir interest in the project, Mr Ong reckons.
The project comprises a mix of two, three and four-bedroom apartments and penthouses. Both penthouses in the stack of 122 units released so far have been sold - a 3,700 sq ft unit went for $3.37 million and the other, a 2,605 sq ft unit, fetched $2.62 million. A typical three-bedroom apartment of about 1,300 sq ft in the development costs about $1.3 million on average.
Ho Bee and NTUC Choice Homes paid $524 psf per plot ratio at a state tender last year for the Dakota Residences site, which attracted a whopping 15 bids.
Asked if the developers will consider raising Dakota Residences' selling prices, Mr Ong said: 'We'll review it but any price adjustment will be moderate. Sentiment is still fragile. If you're too aggressive in raising prices, you run the risk of stalling the sales momentum.'
Urban Redevelopment Authority data released last week showed developers sold 441 new private homes in May, up from 284 units in April.
S'pore - Asia's Switzerland For Millionaires
Source : The Sunday Times, June 22, 2008
GOT at least US$5 million (S$6.8 million)? A private banker is at your service in Singapore, which is fast gaining a reputation as the Switzerland of Asia for the world's growing ranks of multi-millionaires.
The tiny, tropical island-state, South-east Asia's most advanced economy, has emerged as a centre for the wealth management industry which caters to an elite breed called high net worth individuals, or HNWIs.
Banks have beefed up their wealth management services, taking up swank offices in the business district as well as recruiting and training staff in the fine art of dealing with this moneyed class.
'Typically, a client should have a financial net worth of between US$5 million to US$10 million, excluding the house, car and wine collection - just money available to invest,' said Mr Marcel Kreis, head of private banking for the Asia Pacific region at Credit Suisse, the Swiss banking giant.
Years of strong economic growth and an indomitable entrepreneurial spirit have swelled the Asia Pacific region's list of HNWIs - defined as those with more than US$1 million in investible assets, industry players said.
An industry report by consultancy Capgemini and US investment bank Merrill Lynch said the financial wealth held by Asian HNWIs could reach a staggering US$12.7 trillion by 2011, growing at an annual rate of 8.5 per cent, above the global rate of 6.8 per cent.
This compares with the US$8.4 trillion dollars in financial assets held by Asian HNWIs in 2006 - nearly eight times the combined gross domestic product of all 10 South-east Asian states, including oil-rich Brunei, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.
China and Japan accounted for more than 64 per cent of the regional wealth, while Singapore, India and Indonesia produced the highest number of millionaires that year, the report said.
As of 2006, the Asia Pacific region had 2.6 million HNWIs or 27.1 per cent of the global total, it said. Only a small percentage of this number had a wealth manager, meaning the opportunities are vast, private bankers said.
While most of Asia's HNWIs hold between US$1 million and US$5 million in net worth, there was a noticeably sharp rise in 'ultra-HNWIs,' or people with more than US$30 million to invest, the report said.
Of the region's 17,500 ultra-HNWIs in 2006, more than 28 per cent were from China, it said.
- 'You can call it the Switzerland of Asia' - 'Singapore is an attractive location because it continually produces top graduates in all disciplines that matter to the industry. There are several similarities Singapore shares with Switzerland and you can probably call it the Switzerland of Asia,' said Mr Kreis.
Banking laws
Other industry players cited Singapore's tough banking secrecy laws, reliable legal system, well-regulated financial sector, world-class facilities and political stability.
Singapore has defended its banking secrecy laws from criticism, saying it has strong safeguards against money laundering.
Private bankers said self-policing by the industry, reinforced by strict government regulations, ensures that dirty money is screened out.
'At Credit Suisse, there is a very rigorous due diligence process and 'know your client' procedure in place that vets the type of clients when they come in. There are rules and regulations in place that supervise the transactions that we do when the client is on board,' Mr Kreis said.
Despite private banks setting up offices in key markets like China, India and Indonesia, 'still Singapore is the private banking, wealth management centre in the Asia Pacific, without doubt,' he said.
Mr Joseph Poon, head of the Macquarie Group's newly-launched Asian private wealth business based in Singapore, said the city-state is the world's fastest-growing private banking and wealth management centre.
In future, Singapore 'will be one of only two global private banking and wealth management hubs, the other being Switzerland,' he added.
Asia's HNWIs are generally self-made, second-generation entrepreneurs, who want a more hands-on role in how their finances are managed, private bankers said.
This compares with Europe, where a higher percentage of HNWIs have inherited their wealth and are likely to be more hands-off.
Singapore's de facto central bank said that, compared with the rapid expansion over the past six years, the wealth management industry is likely to slow this year due to global financial turmoil.
But the pause should be mild compared with the equity markets, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in an April report.
Overall, Asia's economic growth remains strong, and conducive for millionaires to flourish, wealth managers say.
'Not only are we seeing unprecedented wealth creation in Asia but the structure of the region's economies have fundamentally changed,' said Mr Didier von Daeniken, regional chief executive of Barclays Wealth.
'Education, technology and globalisation are driving wealth creation, resulting in a shift of economic power to the East.'
Wealth managed out of Singapore comes from clients worldwide, including China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and as far away as Russia and Europe. Japan's wealth is largely serviced domestically, industry figures said.
While rich Middle Easterners are traditionally served out of London and Switzerland, they are increasingly looking at investments in Asia as revenues from soaring oil prices fill their coffers, said Kreis of Credit Suisse.
An industry source, who asked not to be named, said the European Union's moves to step up scrutiny of European tax havens could prompt wealthy Europeans to increasingly look at offshore banking centres in Asia such as Singapore and Hong Kong. -- AFP
GOT at least US$5 million (S$6.8 million)? A private banker is at your service in Singapore, which is fast gaining a reputation as the Switzerland of Asia for the world's growing ranks of multi-millionaires.
The tiny, tropical island-state, South-east Asia's most advanced economy, has emerged as a centre for the wealth management industry which caters to an elite breed called high net worth individuals, or HNWIs.
Banks have beefed up their wealth management services, taking up swank offices in the business district as well as recruiting and training staff in the fine art of dealing with this moneyed class.
'Typically, a client should have a financial net worth of between US$5 million to US$10 million, excluding the house, car and wine collection - just money available to invest,' said Mr Marcel Kreis, head of private banking for the Asia Pacific region at Credit Suisse, the Swiss banking giant.
Years of strong economic growth and an indomitable entrepreneurial spirit have swelled the Asia Pacific region's list of HNWIs - defined as those with more than US$1 million in investible assets, industry players said.
An industry report by consultancy Capgemini and US investment bank Merrill Lynch said the financial wealth held by Asian HNWIs could reach a staggering US$12.7 trillion by 2011, growing at an annual rate of 8.5 per cent, above the global rate of 6.8 per cent.
This compares with the US$8.4 trillion dollars in financial assets held by Asian HNWIs in 2006 - nearly eight times the combined gross domestic product of all 10 South-east Asian states, including oil-rich Brunei, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.
China and Japan accounted for more than 64 per cent of the regional wealth, while Singapore, India and Indonesia produced the highest number of millionaires that year, the report said.
As of 2006, the Asia Pacific region had 2.6 million HNWIs or 27.1 per cent of the global total, it said. Only a small percentage of this number had a wealth manager, meaning the opportunities are vast, private bankers said.
While most of Asia's HNWIs hold between US$1 million and US$5 million in net worth, there was a noticeably sharp rise in 'ultra-HNWIs,' or people with more than US$30 million to invest, the report said.
Of the region's 17,500 ultra-HNWIs in 2006, more than 28 per cent were from China, it said.
- 'You can call it the Switzerland of Asia' - 'Singapore is an attractive location because it continually produces top graduates in all disciplines that matter to the industry. There are several similarities Singapore shares with Switzerland and you can probably call it the Switzerland of Asia,' said Mr Kreis.
Banking laws
Other industry players cited Singapore's tough banking secrecy laws, reliable legal system, well-regulated financial sector, world-class facilities and political stability.
Singapore has defended its banking secrecy laws from criticism, saying it has strong safeguards against money laundering.
Private bankers said self-policing by the industry, reinforced by strict government regulations, ensures that dirty money is screened out.
'At Credit Suisse, there is a very rigorous due diligence process and 'know your client' procedure in place that vets the type of clients when they come in. There are rules and regulations in place that supervise the transactions that we do when the client is on board,' Mr Kreis said.
Despite private banks setting up offices in key markets like China, India and Indonesia, 'still Singapore is the private banking, wealth management centre in the Asia Pacific, without doubt,' he said.
Mr Joseph Poon, head of the Macquarie Group's newly-launched Asian private wealth business based in Singapore, said the city-state is the world's fastest-growing private banking and wealth management centre.
In future, Singapore 'will be one of only two global private banking and wealth management hubs, the other being Switzerland,' he added.
Asia's HNWIs are generally self-made, second-generation entrepreneurs, who want a more hands-on role in how their finances are managed, private bankers said.
This compares with Europe, where a higher percentage of HNWIs have inherited their wealth and are likely to be more hands-off.
Singapore's de facto central bank said that, compared with the rapid expansion over the past six years, the wealth management industry is likely to slow this year due to global financial turmoil.
But the pause should be mild compared with the equity markets, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in an April report.
Overall, Asia's economic growth remains strong, and conducive for millionaires to flourish, wealth managers say.
'Not only are we seeing unprecedented wealth creation in Asia but the structure of the region's economies have fundamentally changed,' said Mr Didier von Daeniken, regional chief executive of Barclays Wealth.
'Education, technology and globalisation are driving wealth creation, resulting in a shift of economic power to the East.'
Wealth managed out of Singapore comes from clients worldwide, including China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and as far away as Russia and Europe. Japan's wealth is largely serviced domestically, industry figures said.
While rich Middle Easterners are traditionally served out of London and Switzerland, they are increasingly looking at investments in Asia as revenues from soaring oil prices fill their coffers, said Kreis of Credit Suisse.
An industry source, who asked not to be named, said the European Union's moves to step up scrutiny of European tax havens could prompt wealthy Europeans to increasingly look at offshore banking centres in Asia such as Singapore and Hong Kong. -- AFP
分析师：未来两年私宅供应没过剩 价格未必会显著退低
《联合早报》Jun 23, 2008
想买房子的人是否应该等到明年才进场，到时价格会因为供应过剩而下跌？
一些分析师最近发表的报告指我国楼市供应将面临过剩的危机，尤其是明年和后年，但实际情况也许不如想象中的糟，价格也可能不会显著退低。
据第一太平戴维斯(Savills)统计的数据显示，本地私宅未来两年的潜在供应(potential supply)实际上要比市区重建局(URA)提供的数据来得少。2009年和2010年竣工的私宅单位分别有1万零270个和1万2249个，相比之下，市建局的官方数字显示，明年和后年的新私宅供应将为1万2723个和1万7445个。
第一太平戴维斯参考了600多个目前正在兴建中以及未来将发展的项目，向发展商取得临时入伙准证(TOP)以及从观察各别项目的发展进展得出数据。市建局的未来供应数据则来自发展商每一季提供的预期竣工日期，该局将在7月底发表第二季房地产数据时才会更新数字。
第一太平戴维斯行销与业务开发主管邱瑞荣指出，许多市场人士和分析师依赖市建局的数据而没有考虑到实际情况，才会得出未来两年市场将“消化不良”、房地产价格将下跌的结论。
邱瑞荣说：“目前的数据是根据发展商在3月份向当局提呈的数据，但在这期间，市场上出现了许多变数，有集体出售告吹，集体出售项目延后重新发展等等，因此接下来两年的供应相信没有官方数据那么多。”
由于楼市疲弱，建筑成本又高，有不少发展商买下集体出售项目后不急着拆掉重建，而选择暂时出租，比如礼敦岭(Leedon Heights)和花拉阁(Farrer Court)，这减少了未来两年推出市场的供应。
此外，金香园(Tulip Gardens)、马克维景(Makeway View)和秉德阁(Pender Court)集体出售告吹也使市场未来的新供应“缩水”了一些。
虽然还没计算在未来供应内，目前还在高庭或分层地契局审理的浩然大厦(Horizon Towers)、吉门岭公寓(Gillman Heights)、民登苑(Minton Rise)和淡滨尼阁(Tampines Court)，也将限制未来两年的供应。
花拉阁和吉门岭公寓是本地最大和第二大集体出售地段，少了这两幅地段，未来供应将减少约3000个单位。
另外，邱瑞荣表示，大型发展商有足够财力坐拥一些地段，为了不削价出售而选择延迟推出或重建新项目。比如长春产业(Allgreen)的Cascadia和远东及永泰控股的Floridian，发展商是在10年前买下这两个地段，但延迟到去年才推出市场，这么一来，未来供应将被分散，不会出现供应充斥市场的情况。
“本地市场过去平均每年能‘消化’8000个私宅单位，未来几年相信会更多。两个综合度假胜地(IR)在明后年
建成以后将制造更多就业机会，吸引更多外籍人士前来本地，增加需求。何况，政府组屋供不应求的情况预计会持续，目前未出售的政府组屋仅有1200个，四五年前的空置单位则达2万5000个。”
邱瑞荣也指出，政府计划在今年下半年减少发售新地段，而采取更灵活的方式把更多地段列入备售名单(reserve list)不但能缓和市场顾虑，也有助于控制实际供应。
分析师近期报告都预测房价将下跌
过去两个星期，分析师发表的报告都预测本地房地产价格将在未来两年里下跌。
联昌国际(CIMB-GK)分析师指出，目前的转售市场交易价已较去年9月低了20％至40％，而今年至今推出市场的新单位仅有2100个，相信明年将有大量供应充斥市场，进而打压新私宅单位的售价。
高纬物业(Cushman & Wakefield)则预测，从明年至2011年，未出售或即将推出市场的私宅供应将逐步增加，导致核心中央区(CCR)的中数(median)售价可能从2008年第一季的高峰下降8％至17％。
然而，高纬物业的研究也发现，从去年8月至今年5月之间，225个新推出的私宅项目当中，仅有10％的发展商把售调低超过20％，但相比1997/1998年的金融危机，售价的趋软较为温和。当年一些发展商甚至削价高达40％。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师则预计，本地房地产价格将在今年持续趋软，高档私宅价格将下跌10％，大众化私宅价格也可能下滑5％，并在明年进一步退低。
有分析师提出，我国和环球经济放缓以及通胀问题可能会导致本地楼价暴跌。对此，邱瑞荣表示，除非类似金融危机时的情况，我国经济连续两三个季度都出现负增长、失业人数飙升、房贷利息居高不下，未来几年相信不会看见历史重演。
虽然我国楼市预计在未来两年不会大跌，但邱瑞荣认为，如果IR没有预期中成功、环球经济持续低迷，我国可能在2011年以后面临供应过剩的危机，2011年将有1万5451个单位上市，而2012年以后的供应将多达2万3261个单位。
想买房子的人是否应该等到明年才进场，到时价格会因为供应过剩而下跌？
一些分析师最近发表的报告指我国楼市供应将面临过剩的危机，尤其是明年和后年，但实际情况也许不如想象中的糟，价格也可能不会显著退低。
据第一太平戴维斯(Savills)统计的数据显示，本地私宅未来两年的潜在供应(potential supply)实际上要比市区重建局(URA)提供的数据来得少。2009年和2010年竣工的私宅单位分别有1万零270个和1万2249个，相比之下，市建局的官方数字显示，明年和后年的新私宅供应将为1万2723个和1万7445个。
第一太平戴维斯参考了600多个目前正在兴建中以及未来将发展的项目，向发展商取得临时入伙准证(TOP)以及从观察各别项目的发展进展得出数据。市建局的未来供应数据则来自发展商每一季提供的预期竣工日期，该局将在7月底发表第二季房地产数据时才会更新数字。
第一太平戴维斯行销与业务开发主管邱瑞荣指出，许多市场人士和分析师依赖市建局的数据而没有考虑到实际情况，才会得出未来两年市场将“消化不良”、房地产价格将下跌的结论。
邱瑞荣说：“目前的数据是根据发展商在3月份向当局提呈的数据，但在这期间，市场上出现了许多变数，有集体出售告吹，集体出售项目延后重新发展等等，因此接下来两年的供应相信没有官方数据那么多。”
由于楼市疲弱，建筑成本又高，有不少发展商买下集体出售项目后不急着拆掉重建，而选择暂时出租，比如礼敦岭(Leedon Heights)和花拉阁(Farrer Court)，这减少了未来两年推出市场的供应。
此外，金香园(Tulip Gardens)、马克维景(Makeway View)和秉德阁(Pender Court)集体出售告吹也使市场未来的新供应“缩水”了一些。
虽然还没计算在未来供应内，目前还在高庭或分层地契局审理的浩然大厦(Horizon Towers)、吉门岭公寓(Gillman Heights)、民登苑(Minton Rise)和淡滨尼阁(Tampines Court)，也将限制未来两年的供应。
花拉阁和吉门岭公寓是本地最大和第二大集体出售地段，少了这两幅地段，未来供应将减少约3000个单位。
另外，邱瑞荣表示，大型发展商有足够财力坐拥一些地段，为了不削价出售而选择延迟推出或重建新项目。比如长春产业(Allgreen)的Cascadia和远东及永泰控股的Floridian，发展商是在10年前买下这两个地段，但延迟到去年才推出市场，这么一来，未来供应将被分散，不会出现供应充斥市场的情况。
“本地市场过去平均每年能‘消化’8000个私宅单位，未来几年相信会更多。两个综合度假胜地(IR)在明后年
建成以后将制造更多就业机会，吸引更多外籍人士前来本地，增加需求。何况，政府组屋供不应求的情况预计会持续，目前未出售的政府组屋仅有1200个，四五年前的空置单位则达2万5000个。”
邱瑞荣也指出，政府计划在今年下半年减少发售新地段，而采取更灵活的方式把更多地段列入备售名单(reserve list)不但能缓和市场顾虑，也有助于控制实际供应。
分析师近期报告都预测房价将下跌
过去两个星期，分析师发表的报告都预测本地房地产价格将在未来两年里下跌。
联昌国际(CIMB-GK)分析师指出，目前的转售市场交易价已较去年9月低了20％至40％，而今年至今推出市场的新单位仅有2100个，相信明年将有大量供应充斥市场，进而打压新私宅单位的售价。
高纬物业(Cushman & Wakefield)则预测，从明年至2011年，未出售或即将推出市场的私宅供应将逐步增加，导致核心中央区(CCR)的中数(median)售价可能从2008年第一季的高峰下降8％至17％。
然而，高纬物业的研究也发现，从去年8月至今年5月之间，225个新推出的私宅项目当中，仅有10％的发展商把售调低超过20％，但相比1997/1998年的金融危机，售价的趋软较为温和。当年一些发展商甚至削价高达40％。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师则预计，本地房地产价格将在今年持续趋软，高档私宅价格将下跌10％，大众化私宅价格也可能下滑5％，并在明年进一步退低。
有分析师提出，我国和环球经济放缓以及通胀问题可能会导致本地楼价暴跌。对此，邱瑞荣表示，除非类似金融危机时的情况，我国经济连续两三个季度都出现负增长、失业人数飙升、房贷利息居高不下，未来几年相信不会看见历史重演。
虽然我国楼市预计在未来两年不会大跌，但邱瑞荣认为，如果IR没有预期中成功、环球经济持续低迷，我国可能在2011年以后面临供应过剩的危机，2011年将有1万5451个单位上市，而2012年以后的供应将多达2万3261个单位。
房地产后市走势 证券行看法不一
《联合早报》Jun 23, 2008
尽管市区重建局日前发布的数字显示上个月卖出的新私宅单位猛飙了55％至441个单位，而政府表示在下半年也会减少售地，各家证券行仍然对本地房地产后市的看法不一，其中联昌国际研究与华侨银行投资研究继续对私宅走势持中立立场，但星展集团研究和金英证券研究却大致上持乐观态度。
联昌国际研究说，楼花转售(sub-sale)市场的一些私宅交易价格比去年9月的水平低了20％到40％，然而新住宅价格却依然保持平稳。考虑到截至目前为止只推出2100个新单位，明年可能出现过剩的新供应恐会对新私宅价格造成压力，同时潜在的滞胀(stagflation)环境也将不利于中高档房地产的走势，因此联昌国际对本地房地产业抱着中立态度，并预测住宅市场短期而言会缺乏方向。
华侨银行投资研究报告指出，上个月新推出的私宅数目比前季度飙升91％，无论是核心中央区(CCR)还是其余的中央区(RCR)的新推出单位，都上升到今年以来的最高水平，这相信是发展商趁4月股市强劲回升的好转气氛而展开取巧行动的结果。
可是必须指出的是，中央区外(OCR)的新推出单位数目在同月份却比前季度下滑，而所有地区的未售出单位也相当可观。随着更多核心中央区的私宅项目短期内可能推出，发展商或被迫以较低价格出售房地产，华侨银行投资研究因此维持对整体房地产业的“中性”评级。
星展集团研究则针对政府下半年的售地计划发表报告认为，由于供私宅、酒店和商业楼面用途的正选地段(confirmed list)各比上半年的减少62％、58％和65％，这明显反映出政府开始要减少发售新地段，让市场有一些喘息发展空间。
尽管政府下半年的售地计划宣布并没有直接影响到任何上市房地产公司，有关宣布无疑促进了市场对本地土地供应规划的信心，确保了房地产业中期的持续性稳健成长，星展集团因此给予整体房地产业“加磅”评级，其中推荐的吸购首选为城市发展(CDL)，目标价为12.90元，也给予代表中档与大众私宅部分的星狮集团(F&N)和长春产业(Allgreen Properties)“买入”评级，目标价分别为5.80元和1.66元。
金英证券研究报告则强调，检视今年以来的私宅转售市场，尤其是进行超过5个楼花转售交易的项目，价格似乎已经走软，但低交易量并不足以作为明确的统计结论。至于延迟付款计划的取消，投机者的确可能被迫在取得临时入伙准证前削价脱售他们手上的私宅，但这其实应被视为市场的暂时巩固，毕竟这样的局面将是真正买主进场的好机会。
此外，综合度假胜地的完工以及夜间一级方程式赛车将有助于把新加坡进一步转变成国际都市，本地房地产业中长期来说还是大有作为的，因此金英证券继续建议投资者买入城市发展、嘉德置地(CapitaLand)以及吉宝置业(（Keppel Land)，目标价分别是13.94元、7.48元和8.33元。
尽管市区重建局日前发布的数字显示上个月卖出的新私宅单位猛飙了55％至441个单位，而政府表示在下半年也会减少售地，各家证券行仍然对本地房地产后市的看法不一，其中联昌国际研究与华侨银行投资研究继续对私宅走势持中立立场，但星展集团研究和金英证券研究却大致上持乐观态度。
联昌国际研究说，楼花转售(sub-sale)市场的一些私宅交易价格比去年9月的水平低了20％到40％，然而新住宅价格却依然保持平稳。考虑到截至目前为止只推出2100个新单位，明年可能出现过剩的新供应恐会对新私宅价格造成压力，同时潜在的滞胀(stagflation)环境也将不利于中高档房地产的走势，因此联昌国际对本地房地产业抱着中立态度，并预测住宅市场短期而言会缺乏方向。
华侨银行投资研究报告指出，上个月新推出的私宅数目比前季度飙升91％，无论是核心中央区(CCR)还是其余的中央区(RCR)的新推出单位，都上升到今年以来的最高水平，这相信是发展商趁4月股市强劲回升的好转气氛而展开取巧行动的结果。
可是必须指出的是，中央区外(OCR)的新推出单位数目在同月份却比前季度下滑，而所有地区的未售出单位也相当可观。随着更多核心中央区的私宅项目短期内可能推出，发展商或被迫以较低价格出售房地产，华侨银行投资研究因此维持对整体房地产业的“中性”评级。
星展集团研究则针对政府下半年的售地计划发表报告认为，由于供私宅、酒店和商业楼面用途的正选地段(confirmed list)各比上半年的减少62％、58％和65％，这明显反映出政府开始要减少发售新地段，让市场有一些喘息发展空间。
尽管政府下半年的售地计划宣布并没有直接影响到任何上市房地产公司，有关宣布无疑促进了市场对本地土地供应规划的信心，确保了房地产业中期的持续性稳健成长，星展集团因此给予整体房地产业“加磅”评级，其中推荐的吸购首选为城市发展(CDL)，目标价为12.90元，也给予代表中档与大众私宅部分的星狮集团(F&N)和长春产业(Allgreen Properties)“买入”评级，目标价分别为5.80元和1.66元。
金英证券研究报告则强调，检视今年以来的私宅转售市场，尤其是进行超过5个楼花转售交易的项目，价格似乎已经走软，但低交易量并不足以作为明确的统计结论。至于延迟付款计划的取消，投机者的确可能被迫在取得临时入伙准证前削价脱售他们手上的私宅，但这其实应被视为市场的暂时巩固，毕竟这样的局面将是真正买主进场的好机会。
此外，综合度假胜地的完工以及夜间一级方程式赛车将有助于把新加坡进一步转变成国际都市，本地房地产业中长期来说还是大有作为的，因此金英证券继续建议投资者买入城市发展、嘉德置地(CapitaLand)以及吉宝置业(（Keppel Land)，目标价分别是13.94元、7.48元和8.33元。
中国楼市已出现泡沫？
《联合早报》Jun 23, 2008
一名在上海工作多年的新加坡朋友，最近谈起他的租房经历。这位朋友3年前被派到上海，在中介商帮助下，当时以5000元人民币（下同，985新元）/月的价格租下一套三室两厅、装修豪华的房子。
一年后，房东坚持要增加租金，从5000元加到了6000元。然而令他没想到的是，到了第三年，房东直接将房价从6000元升到8000元，而且根本没有商量的余地。
泡沫似有破裂迹象
这位朋友觉得租金太高，只得重新找房，然而中介商却告诉他，以现在的行情，7000元以下，是租不到什么好房子的。这位朋友权衡之下，最后还是决定买一套房。不过，他发现一些新小区的房价平均都在2万元左右，甚至更高，而且很多小区的房价是在最近4、5年之内从5000元、6000元每平方米，一路攀升到了一万、两万，甚至3万多每平方米。
这位朋友颇为感慨地说：“我不是经济学家，对房地产这一行也不熟悉，更加不了解中国国情，但是我觉得这样的增长比例和速度，肯定是有泡沫的。”
如今，这位朋友所预感中的“泡沫”，似乎已有破裂的迹象。
去年，尽管上海、深圳等相对成熟市场的平均房价稍有回落，但由于二、三线城市房价的补涨，中国楼市的价格仍在高位上涨。2007年，政府再推出一系列宏观调控措施，特别是央行对买第二套房进行利率限制后，到了年末，有业内人士开始抛出楼市“拐点论”，认为目前房价太高，房价上升速度超过了家庭收入增长速度，连中产阶层都买不起房子，这是危险的。
但是之后，由于中国城市化进程加快，一线城市刚性需求旺盛，尽管深圳、广州等地的楼市价格大幅回落，但实际上像上海这样的大城市，其中心城区的房价并未出现明显下跌，有些较好地段的房价甚至还在缓慢攀升。
交易量急剧萎缩
这种情况下，很多买房者产生降价预期并持币观望，大部分发展商又抱团不肯大幅让利，造成楼市交易量急剧萎缩，楼市出现“滞胀”状态。以上海为例，在5月份四川地震之后的一个交易周里，交易量大幅下滑了17.93％。
6月8日，央行第10次上调存款准备金率，上升幅度为1％，这一举措被专家解读为：从紧信贷政策依然不会改变，房地产企业同样受到影响。
中国指数研究院副院长陈晟在接受本报访问时称，去年多数房企大规模扩大土地储备，今年进入土地款支付高峰，但今年由于信贷从紧以及房企资金使用途径被严格规范（首次公开售股（IPO）和再融资资金不得用于拿地，国外融资用于国内拿地也受到限制，而且商业银行不能向房地产开发企业发放专门用于缴交土地出让金的贷款），房地产企业将面临普遍的资金压力，一些企业的资金链面临断裂危险。
这种形势下，6月中旬在海南博鳌举行的房地产论坛上，多数房地产商的信心指数已下降到近年来的最低点，楼市正在滑入一个下降通道，已变成发展商们的一个普遍共识。
那么，中国楼市是否也像最近A股暴跌引发股灾一样，形成一场“房灾”呢？
在中国投资多处地产的新能基集团董事长段先生认为，中国房地产市场发展情况不一，像上海、北京、深圳等房价上涨过快的城市，会有一个短期回调，但从长期来看，中国的房地产市场仍然将保持上升态势，尤其是一些高品质房产，将更受欢迎。
陈晟也认为，房地产是一个区域性很强的行业，而中国幅员辽阔，城市化程度相差显著，不可一概而论。上海深圳等城市化率已超过80％，已经进入房地产发展的成熟阶段，而全国城市化率则在45％左右，尚处在房地产加速发展区间。因此从全国范围来看，城镇化水平提高带来的需求，意味着中国房地产行业仍具有广阔的成长空间，房价将与居民收入和资产价格同向变动。
一名在上海工作多年的新加坡朋友，最近谈起他的租房经历。这位朋友3年前被派到上海，在中介商帮助下，当时以5000元人民币（下同，985新元）/月的价格租下一套三室两厅、装修豪华的房子。
一年后，房东坚持要增加租金，从5000元加到了6000元。然而令他没想到的是，到了第三年，房东直接将房价从6000元升到8000元，而且根本没有商量的余地。
泡沫似有破裂迹象
这位朋友觉得租金太高，只得重新找房，然而中介商却告诉他，以现在的行情，7000元以下，是租不到什么好房子的。这位朋友权衡之下，最后还是决定买一套房。不过，他发现一些新小区的房价平均都在2万元左右，甚至更高，而且很多小区的房价是在最近4、5年之内从5000元、6000元每平方米，一路攀升到了一万、两万，甚至3万多每平方米。
这位朋友颇为感慨地说：“我不是经济学家，对房地产这一行也不熟悉，更加不了解中国国情，但是我觉得这样的增长比例和速度，肯定是有泡沫的。”
如今，这位朋友所预感中的“泡沫”，似乎已有破裂的迹象。
去年，尽管上海、深圳等相对成熟市场的平均房价稍有回落，但由于二、三线城市房价的补涨，中国楼市的价格仍在高位上涨。2007年，政府再推出一系列宏观调控措施，特别是央行对买第二套房进行利率限制后，到了年末，有业内人士开始抛出楼市“拐点论”，认为目前房价太高，房价上升速度超过了家庭收入增长速度，连中产阶层都买不起房子，这是危险的。
但是之后，由于中国城市化进程加快，一线城市刚性需求旺盛，尽管深圳、广州等地的楼市价格大幅回落，但实际上像上海这样的大城市，其中心城区的房价并未出现明显下跌，有些较好地段的房价甚至还在缓慢攀升。
交易量急剧萎缩
这种情况下，很多买房者产生降价预期并持币观望，大部分发展商又抱团不肯大幅让利，造成楼市交易量急剧萎缩，楼市出现“滞胀”状态。以上海为例，在5月份四川地震之后的一个交易周里，交易量大幅下滑了17.93％。
6月8日，央行第10次上调存款准备金率，上升幅度为1％，这一举措被专家解读为：从紧信贷政策依然不会改变，房地产企业同样受到影响。
中国指数研究院副院长陈晟在接受本报访问时称，去年多数房企大规模扩大土地储备，今年进入土地款支付高峰，但今年由于信贷从紧以及房企资金使用途径被严格规范（首次公开售股（IPO）和再融资资金不得用于拿地，国外融资用于国内拿地也受到限制，而且商业银行不能向房地产开发企业发放专门用于缴交土地出让金的贷款），房地产企业将面临普遍的资金压力，一些企业的资金链面临断裂危险。
这种形势下，6月中旬在海南博鳌举行的房地产论坛上，多数房地产商的信心指数已下降到近年来的最低点，楼市正在滑入一个下降通道，已变成发展商们的一个普遍共识。
那么，中国楼市是否也像最近A股暴跌引发股灾一样，形成一场“房灾”呢？
在中国投资多处地产的新能基集团董事长段先生认为，中国房地产市场发展情况不一，像上海、北京、深圳等房价上涨过快的城市，会有一个短期回调，但从长期来看，中国的房地产市场仍然将保持上升态势，尤其是一些高品质房产，将更受欢迎。
陈晟也认为，房地产是一个区域性很强的行业，而中国幅员辽阔，城市化程度相差显著，不可一概而论。上海深圳等城市化率已超过80％，已经进入房地产发展的成熟阶段，而全国城市化率则在45％左右，尚处在房地产加速发展区间。因此从全国范围来看，城镇化水平提高带来的需求，意味着中国房地产行业仍具有广阔的成长空间，房价将与居民收入和资产价格同向变动。
市区公寓 老外新欢
《联合早报》Jun 22, 2008
近一两年来，坐落在金融区或者金融区边缘的共管公寓，已陆续完工，住户也纷纷迁入。
从夜晚的灯火和悬挂了窗帘的窗户来看，海天大厦和瓅之尚都等完工半年至一年的新市区公寓，都已经取得超过一半的住用率。这些市区公寓不靠近学校，也没有湿巴刹，到底吸引怎样的租户？
它们的租金和价格走势又如何？跟乌节路和郊外的公寓比起来，有何不同？
瓅之尚都（Citylights）矗立市区边缘，从公寓可以眺望四周的辽阔景色。（谢光凭摄）
市区公寓由于不靠近学校，附近也没有湿巴刹，所以这里的住户跟一般住宅区的住户有些不同。在这里较少看到孩子还在上学的家庭，而外国人的比例相当高。
ERA产业的王德金（Richard Ong）指出，海天大厦、瓅之尚都、中央城（Central）居家办公（SOHO）单位、凯联大厦（International Plaza）等坐落在金融区，或者金融区边缘的住宅单位，都相当受外国人欢迎。
它们的共同点是都建在地铁站旁，交通非常方便，无论是到金融区上班，或者是到乌节路逛街，不过几分钟的路程。
尤其是近年来，乌节路一带的出租公寓短缺，带动租金龙腾虎跃，一些中高层外籍管理人员纷纷迁移到外围地区。
活跃于海天大厦和瓅之尚都的王德金说，他经手的租户，几乎清一色是公司提供房屋津贴的外籍专业人士，本地人少之又少。
“有韩国人、日本人，也有‘红毛人’。他们大多是单身人士，常常在亚太区域飞来飞去，不少人还在其他地方，例如泰国、马来西亚有房子，所以不需要太大的地方，只要能落脚就可以。六七百平方英尺的地方刚刚好，容易打理。”
这类外籍管理人员不一定负担得起乌节路的昂贵租金，但对居住在本地人较为密集的组屋区感到不自在，所以宁愿住在金融区附近。虽然金融区一带入夜后没什么商店和超市，但因为靠近地铁站，无论是买东西还是吃东西，都相当方便。
以本地人来说，有些单身人士居住在这类市区公寓。他们一般不拥车，出入都乘坐地铁。市区的居住环境不但配合他们的生活方式，而且还提供了许多便利——能住在商业心脏地带，工作、购物和娱乐地点都近在咫尺。
对于没有子女的双收入夫妇（Double Income No Kids，简称DINKs）来说，由于没有靠近学校的必要，平时也难得开灶煮饭，所以也更容易适应市区的居住环境。
此外，一些年长的夫妇也在子女离开家后，将原来的大房子卖掉，搬到这种市区公寓居住。公寓面积较小，容易打理，而且靠近地铁站也方便他们探访朋友或参加休闲活动。
两卧房月租6000元 两三周就找到租户
一间只有900平方英尺的两卧房式公寓，一个月的租金多少钱？
像海天大厦这样的市区公寓，一间两卧房式单位月租金可以到6000元。由于公寓靠近地铁站，交通方便，所以相当受外国人欢迎。（周柏荣摄）
如果是像海天大厦和瓅之尚都这样的市区公寓，每月租金可以到4500元至6300元。
对许多月薪只有两三千元的新加坡打工族来说，这样的租金简直令人咋舌。但是，熟悉这一带行情的房屋经纪说，只要业主没有苛刻的附带条件，他们一般只要两三个星期内就可以为业主找到租户。
根据SISV纪录，仅是今年5月就有15个瓅之尚都单位被人租下，海天大厦则有9个单位。
在海天大厦，一间两卧房式单位可以租到6000元一个月，上个月就有一间39楼（904平方英尺）的单位以6300元租出。面积达1200平方英尺的高楼单位，月租金可达8000元，上个月，一间46楼的单位就以这个租金水平找到了租户。
在瓅之尚都，一间19楼的两卧房式单位（893平方英尺）在上个月以4800元租出。这个月，一间30楼的三卧房式单位（1421平方英尺），则以5500元找到了租户。
30年屋龄凯联大厦 翻新后租金暴涨一倍
乌节路的豪华出租单位严重短缺，导致一些非总裁级的高管人才被挤出乌节路，进驻金融区，带动市区公寓的租金水涨船高。就连已有30年屋龄的凯联大厦，公寓租金也在翻新后暴涨100％。
凯联大厦的房地产经理梁国华说：“2006年2月，凯联大厦的两卧房式公寓单位，月租金叫价2000元，也不一定找得到租户。今年2月翻新工程完成后，同样850平方英尺的两卧房式单位可以租到3500元至4000元，尤其是可以看到海景的单位更加抢手。”
相较之下，乌节路心脏地带，例如辉盛坊(Vision Crest)和景颐峰（Cairnhill Crest）的两卧房式单位，月租金要6000元至7000元，比海天大厦和瓅之尚都租金贵了10％至20％。
不过，房地产经纪相信，即将在一两个月后完工的最新市区公寓滨海舫(The Sail)，租金很可能足以媲美乌节路心脏地带的公寓，达到6000元至7000元一个月。
即将在一两个月后完工的市区公寓滨海舫（The Sail），租金很可能媲美乌节路公寓，达到每月6000至7000元。 （构想图）
滨海舫坐落于新市区，不但可以欣赏到海景，高楼单位还可以看到滨海湾IR。目前，该公寓的转售价每平方英尺超过2000元，相当于乌节路的公寓水平。
二手房价降但租金仍高 现在买家能保现金入袋
过去几个月来，海天大厦和瓅之尚都等市区公寓的二手单位叫价，已经比最高峰时期降低了10％至15％。
今年1月，海天大楼的单位转售价格仍持守在每平方英尺1400元至1700元的水平，但一进入5月份，成交的单位价格只介于每平方英尺1100元至1400元。
不过，这些公寓的租金仍然稳住在高水平。王德金认为，这种情况对海天大厦和瓅之尚都的二手价格有扶持作用，因为现在进场的买家，还是能够享受正数的现金收入。
举例说，如果现在有人以110万元买下一间两卧房式的瓅之尚都单位，假设八成向银行贷款，分25年摊还，利息3.55％，每个月要摊还的房贷大约是4335元。但是，如果他把房子租出去，一个月可以收5000元的租金，扣除公寓维持费和房地产税，还是能保有数百元的现金入袋。
相较之下，如果投资在一间乌节路的两卧房式公寓单位，每个月虽然可以收到6000至7000元的租金，但是单单房贷已高达7882元，不但没有现金收入，每个月还要掏出不少现金。这是假设房子的成交价为200万元，其他借贷条件相同。此外，乌节路的公寓维持费也偏高，有些高达500元或600元一个月。
目前，有正数现金收入的房地产不多。
无论是较靠近市区的郊外共管公寓，例如靠近中峇鲁地铁站的中部青园（Central Green Condominium）以及靠近景万岸（Kembagan）地铁站的The Trumps，还是距离市区较远的郊外共管公寓，例如四美的Modena，在扣除房贷、维持费和房地产税后，能够入袋的现金都所剩无几，有些甚至每个月还要掏出现金来供养。
以中部青园和The Trumps来说，现在的租金可以达到4200元一个月。但假设单位的售价为90万元，每个月的供款已高达3547元，两者的差距很小。以Modena来说，两卧房式单位的月租金大约是2500元至3000元，如果成交价是60万元，每个月的供款已高达2365元，扣除维持费和房地产税后，可能还要落入负数现金收入。
投资须考虑房子保值能力
有没有正数的现金收入，只是衡量某个房地产投资值不值得的方法之一，并不是唯一的，也不是最好的方法。
投资专家认为，投资房地产还是应该持长线眼光，并且参考自己的整体投资组合。
由于市场环境不断变化，不管是利息的上扬，或者是租金的走低，都会影响投资者每个月所能收取的现金。房子的保值能力也是另一个重要的考虑因素，如果楼价严重下滑，投资者就可能陷入负资产，卡住不上不下。
最近，银行已经开始调高房贷利率，半年前一些银行还在提供0％和1.68％的首年低利率房贷，但最近已纷纷调高至3％以上。这也就是说，投资者接下来应该会负担越来越高的房贷。
此外，由于明后年将有更多的新公寓完工，再加上一些公司业务已开始放缓，甚至停止增聘外籍高管人才，一般相信公寓的租金上涨速度将放缓下来。如果情况进一步恶化，不少包租公和包租婆可能在未来几个月发现，租金甚至会慢慢软下来。
最近，一些银行的房地产报告预测：新加坡豪宅楼市将在未来三年内下跌30％，大众化私宅价格也会下跌20％。不过，也有不少房地产分析员认为，目前楼市只是进入整合阶段，除非国际局势进一步恶化，否则这一轮低潮应该只是局限于一些领域，例如豪宅价格。
近一两年来，坐落在金融区或者金融区边缘的共管公寓，已陆续完工，住户也纷纷迁入。
从夜晚的灯火和悬挂了窗帘的窗户来看，海天大厦和瓅之尚都等完工半年至一年的新市区公寓，都已经取得超过一半的住用率。这些市区公寓不靠近学校，也没有湿巴刹，到底吸引怎样的租户？
它们的租金和价格走势又如何？跟乌节路和郊外的公寓比起来，有何不同？
瓅之尚都（Citylights）矗立市区边缘，从公寓可以眺望四周的辽阔景色。（谢光凭摄）市区公寓由于不靠近学校，附近也没有湿巴刹，所以这里的住户跟一般住宅区的住户有些不同。在这里较少看到孩子还在上学的家庭，而外国人的比例相当高。
ERA产业的王德金（Richard Ong）指出，海天大厦、瓅之尚都、中央城（Central）居家办公（SOHO）单位、凯联大厦（International Plaza）等坐落在金融区，或者金融区边缘的住宅单位，都相当受外国人欢迎。
它们的共同点是都建在地铁站旁，交通非常方便，无论是到金融区上班，或者是到乌节路逛街，不过几分钟的路程。
尤其是近年来，乌节路一带的出租公寓短缺，带动租金龙腾虎跃，一些中高层外籍管理人员纷纷迁移到外围地区。
活跃于海天大厦和瓅之尚都的王德金说，他经手的租户，几乎清一色是公司提供房屋津贴的外籍专业人士，本地人少之又少。
“有韩国人、日本人，也有‘红毛人’。他们大多是单身人士，常常在亚太区域飞来飞去，不少人还在其他地方，例如泰国、马来西亚有房子，所以不需要太大的地方，只要能落脚就可以。六七百平方英尺的地方刚刚好，容易打理。”
这类外籍管理人员不一定负担得起乌节路的昂贵租金，但对居住在本地人较为密集的组屋区感到不自在，所以宁愿住在金融区附近。虽然金融区一带入夜后没什么商店和超市，但因为靠近地铁站，无论是买东西还是吃东西，都相当方便。
以本地人来说，有些单身人士居住在这类市区公寓。他们一般不拥车，出入都乘坐地铁。市区的居住环境不但配合他们的生活方式，而且还提供了许多便利——能住在商业心脏地带，工作、购物和娱乐地点都近在咫尺。
对于没有子女的双收入夫妇（Double Income No Kids，简称DINKs）来说，由于没有靠近学校的必要，平时也难得开灶煮饭，所以也更容易适应市区的居住环境。
此外，一些年长的夫妇也在子女离开家后，将原来的大房子卖掉，搬到这种市区公寓居住。公寓面积较小，容易打理，而且靠近地铁站也方便他们探访朋友或参加休闲活动。
两卧房月租6000元 两三周就找到租户
一间只有900平方英尺的两卧房式公寓，一个月的租金多少钱？
像海天大厦这样的市区公寓，一间两卧房式单位月租金可以到6000元。由于公寓靠近地铁站，交通方便，所以相当受外国人欢迎。（周柏荣摄）如果是像海天大厦和瓅之尚都这样的市区公寓，每月租金可以到4500元至6300元。
对许多月薪只有两三千元的新加坡打工族来说，这样的租金简直令人咋舌。但是，熟悉这一带行情的房屋经纪说，只要业主没有苛刻的附带条件，他们一般只要两三个星期内就可以为业主找到租户。
根据SISV纪录，仅是今年5月就有15个瓅之尚都单位被人租下，海天大厦则有9个单位。
在海天大厦，一间两卧房式单位可以租到6000元一个月，上个月就有一间39楼（904平方英尺）的单位以6300元租出。面积达1200平方英尺的高楼单位，月租金可达8000元，上个月，一间46楼的单位就以这个租金水平找到了租户。
在瓅之尚都，一间19楼的两卧房式单位（893平方英尺）在上个月以4800元租出。这个月，一间30楼的三卧房式单位（1421平方英尺），则以5500元找到了租户。
30年屋龄凯联大厦 翻新后租金暴涨一倍
乌节路的豪华出租单位严重短缺，导致一些非总裁级的高管人才被挤出乌节路，进驻金融区，带动市区公寓的租金水涨船高。就连已有30年屋龄的凯联大厦，公寓租金也在翻新后暴涨100％。
凯联大厦的房地产经理梁国华说：“2006年2月，凯联大厦的两卧房式公寓单位，月租金叫价2000元，也不一定找得到租户。今年2月翻新工程完成后，同样850平方英尺的两卧房式单位可以租到3500元至4000元，尤其是可以看到海景的单位更加抢手。”
相较之下，乌节路心脏地带，例如辉盛坊(Vision Crest)和景颐峰（Cairnhill Crest）的两卧房式单位，月租金要6000元至7000元，比海天大厦和瓅之尚都租金贵了10％至20％。
不过，房地产经纪相信，即将在一两个月后完工的最新市区公寓滨海舫(The Sail)，租金很可能足以媲美乌节路心脏地带的公寓，达到6000元至7000元一个月。
即将在一两个月后完工的市区公寓滨海舫（The Sail），租金很可能媲美乌节路公寓，达到每月6000至7000元。 （构想图）滨海舫坐落于新市区，不但可以欣赏到海景，高楼单位还可以看到滨海湾IR。目前，该公寓的转售价每平方英尺超过2000元，相当于乌节路的公寓水平。
二手房价降但租金仍高 现在买家能保现金入袋
过去几个月来，海天大厦和瓅之尚都等市区公寓的二手单位叫价，已经比最高峰时期降低了10％至15％。
今年1月，海天大楼的单位转售价格仍持守在每平方英尺1400元至1700元的水平，但一进入5月份，成交的单位价格只介于每平方英尺1100元至1400元。
不过，这些公寓的租金仍然稳住在高水平。王德金认为，这种情况对海天大厦和瓅之尚都的二手价格有扶持作用，因为现在进场的买家，还是能够享受正数的现金收入。
举例说，如果现在有人以110万元买下一间两卧房式的瓅之尚都单位，假设八成向银行贷款，分25年摊还，利息3.55％，每个月要摊还的房贷大约是4335元。但是，如果他把房子租出去，一个月可以收5000元的租金，扣除公寓维持费和房地产税，还是能保有数百元的现金入袋。
相较之下，如果投资在一间乌节路的两卧房式公寓单位，每个月虽然可以收到6000至7000元的租金，但是单单房贷已高达7882元，不但没有现金收入，每个月还要掏出不少现金。这是假设房子的成交价为200万元，其他借贷条件相同。此外，乌节路的公寓维持费也偏高，有些高达500元或600元一个月。
目前，有正数现金收入的房地产不多。
无论是较靠近市区的郊外共管公寓，例如靠近中峇鲁地铁站的中部青园（Central Green Condominium）以及靠近景万岸（Kembagan）地铁站的The Trumps，还是距离市区较远的郊外共管公寓，例如四美的Modena，在扣除房贷、维持费和房地产税后，能够入袋的现金都所剩无几，有些甚至每个月还要掏出现金来供养。
以中部青园和The Trumps来说，现在的租金可以达到4200元一个月。但假设单位的售价为90万元，每个月的供款已高达3547元，两者的差距很小。以Modena来说，两卧房式单位的月租金大约是2500元至3000元，如果成交价是60万元，每个月的供款已高达2365元，扣除维持费和房地产税后，可能还要落入负数现金收入。
投资须考虑房子保值能力
有没有正数的现金收入，只是衡量某个房地产投资值不值得的方法之一，并不是唯一的，也不是最好的方法。
投资专家认为，投资房地产还是应该持长线眼光，并且参考自己的整体投资组合。
由于市场环境不断变化，不管是利息的上扬，或者是租金的走低，都会影响投资者每个月所能收取的现金。房子的保值能力也是另一个重要的考虑因素，如果楼价严重下滑，投资者就可能陷入负资产，卡住不上不下。
最近，银行已经开始调高房贷利率，半年前一些银行还在提供0％和1.68％的首年低利率房贷，但最近已纷纷调高至3％以上。这也就是说，投资者接下来应该会负担越来越高的房贷。
此外，由于明后年将有更多的新公寓完工，再加上一些公司业务已开始放缓，甚至停止增聘外籍高管人才，一般相信公寓的租金上涨速度将放缓下来。如果情况进一步恶化，不少包租公和包租婆可能在未来几个月发现，租金甚至会慢慢软下来。
最近，一些银行的房地产报告预测：新加坡豪宅楼市将在未来三年内下跌30％，大众化私宅价格也会下跌20％。不过，也有不少房地产分析员认为，目前楼市只是进入整合阶段，除非国际局势进一步恶化，否则这一轮低潮应该只是局限于一些领域，例如豪宅价格。
调查显示 全球房地产涨势接近尾声
《联合早报》Jun 21, 2008
全球房地产价格狂飙的日子是否已接近尾声？一项全球调查显示，若加入信贷紧缩和高通货膨胀的因素，环球房地产价格暴涨(price boom)的日子已经结束。
这项由环球房地产指南(Global Property Guide)进行的房价指数调查发现，截至今年第一季，若加入高通胀等因素，只有13个国家的房地产价格同一年前相比上涨了，其中就包括新加坡在内（上涨幅度达到21.56％，排在第五），涨幅最高的是斯洛伐克（增加29.3％）。
然而，若以季度比较，加入通胀后，本地的房地产价格，在今年第一季，只稍微上涨了1.93％。
经通胀调整后 21国实际房价下滑
本地市区重建局较早前指出，在第一季，本地私宅价格的上升速度已几乎放慢一半，由6.8％放缓至3.7％。
在这项调查中，21个国家经过通胀调整后，实际房价下滑了。就算是在那些房价没有下滑的国家中，大多数显然已失去增长势头。
因此，油价猛涨、食品和商品价格狂飙，就导致全世界出现通胀情况，也使房地产价格在经过通胀“调整”后，出现了不同的局面。
因为若不把通胀情况计算在内，截至今年第一季，多达28个国家出现房价增长，只有六个国家的房价下滑。其中，中国上海就以40.5％的年比涨幅，领先其他地方。其他增长快速的国家和地区还包括斯洛伐克(34.5％)、保加利亚(31.6％)、香港(31.1％)和新加坡(29.8％)。
以此计算，本地房地产价格在第一季的季比涨幅为3.75％。
环球房地产指南出版人马修·蒙塔古波洛克(Matthew Montagu-Pollock)受询时指出，要准确预测房地产市场的走势向来非常困难，因为这个市场会受情绪和国家的基本面所左右。
他指出，新加坡和香港房地产的价格／租金比例，通常会比其他区域房地产市场来得高，因为香港和新加坡的市场具有效率，交易成本也相对较低。虽然新加坡的通胀在4月份达到7.5％，但由于本地的利率低，因此对房地产市场是有利的。
马修指出，本地房地产市场面对的实际限制，似乎是租金回报(rental yield)太低的问题。他指出，当价格涨得很高的时候，回报就会很低，因为租金回报是以房地产租金除以价格来计算，而目前我国的房地产租金，介于2.7％至4.2％，环球房地产指南认为，这是偏低的。
报告也列出房地产价格开始下滑的因素，包括在许多国家，当房地产价格长期增长后，价格相对于租金的比例已非常高，因此有些人会选择租而不买、利率上涨也给贷款人带来压力。通胀的压力使得一些国家开始调高利率。在美国和一些国家，一些措施和不良的银行作业，也导致过度借贷的问题。
展望未来，报告指出，通胀对全世界的中央银行来说，是严峻的考验。房地产价格下滑会对全球银行体系带来冲击，除非这些金融体系觉得问题已被抛在后头，贷款数量相信还会继续下滑，因此报告认为，全世界房地产的价格开始下滑的势头应该会持续下去。
莱坊(KnightFrank)研究部主管麦俊荣则指出，报告显示新加坡、香港、上海和一些其他城市的房地产价格还在上升中，但在过去三年，房地产价格上涨得太迅速，涨幅也太大，因此，增长势头放缓是意料中事。
全球房地产价格狂飙的日子是否已接近尾声？一项全球调查显示，若加入信贷紧缩和高通货膨胀的因素，环球房地产价格暴涨(price boom)的日子已经结束。
这项由环球房地产指南(Global Property Guide)进行的房价指数调查发现，截至今年第一季，若加入高通胀等因素，只有13个国家的房地产价格同一年前相比上涨了，其中就包括新加坡在内（上涨幅度达到21.56％，排在第五），涨幅最高的是斯洛伐克（增加29.3％）。
然而，若以季度比较，加入通胀后，本地的房地产价格，在今年第一季，只稍微上涨了1.93％。
经通胀调整后 21国实际房价下滑
本地市区重建局较早前指出，在第一季，本地私宅价格的上升速度已几乎放慢一半，由6.8％放缓至3.7％。
在这项调查中，21个国家经过通胀调整后，实际房价下滑了。就算是在那些房价没有下滑的国家中，大多数显然已失去增长势头。
因此，油价猛涨、食品和商品价格狂飙，就导致全世界出现通胀情况，也使房地产价格在经过通胀“调整”后，出现了不同的局面。
因为若不把通胀情况计算在内，截至今年第一季，多达28个国家出现房价增长，只有六个国家的房价下滑。其中，中国上海就以40.5％的年比涨幅，领先其他地方。其他增长快速的国家和地区还包括斯洛伐克(34.5％)、保加利亚(31.6％)、香港(31.1％)和新加坡(29.8％)。
以此计算，本地房地产价格在第一季的季比涨幅为3.75％。
环球房地产指南出版人马修·蒙塔古波洛克(Matthew Montagu-Pollock)受询时指出，要准确预测房地产市场的走势向来非常困难，因为这个市场会受情绪和国家的基本面所左右。
他指出，新加坡和香港房地产的价格／租金比例，通常会比其他区域房地产市场来得高，因为香港和新加坡的市场具有效率，交易成本也相对较低。虽然新加坡的通胀在4月份达到7.5％，但由于本地的利率低，因此对房地产市场是有利的。
马修指出，本地房地产市场面对的实际限制，似乎是租金回报(rental yield)太低的问题。他指出，当价格涨得很高的时候，回报就会很低，因为租金回报是以房地产租金除以价格来计算，而目前我国的房地产租金，介于2.7％至4.2％，环球房地产指南认为，这是偏低的。
报告也列出房地产价格开始下滑的因素，包括在许多国家，当房地产价格长期增长后，价格相对于租金的比例已非常高，因此有些人会选择租而不买、利率上涨也给贷款人带来压力。通胀的压力使得一些国家开始调高利率。在美国和一些国家，一些措施和不良的银行作业，也导致过度借贷的问题。
展望未来，报告指出，通胀对全世界的中央银行来说，是严峻的考验。房地产价格下滑会对全球银行体系带来冲击，除非这些金融体系觉得问题已被抛在后头，贷款数量相信还会继续下滑，因此报告认为，全世界房地产的价格开始下滑的势头应该会持续下去。
莱坊(KnightFrank)研究部主管麦俊荣则指出，报告显示新加坡、香港、上海和一些其他城市的房地产价格还在上升中，但在过去三年，房地产价格上涨得太迅速，涨幅也太大，因此，增长势头放缓是意料中事。
今年首五个月 组屋转售交易量下滑
《联合早报》Jun 21, 2008
组屋转售市场因高售价而出现阻力，今年首五个月交易量持续下滑。
建屋发展局向本报提供的数据显示，今年首五月的平均每月组屋转售交易2290宗，与去年下半年的2410宗相比下滑了5％左右。
建屋局每个季度公布组屋转售价指数与相关资料。虽然第二季资料未出炉，不过根据目前的走势，交易量预料持续减少。
市场人士分析，尽管组屋估价提高，一些不切实际的屋主仍坚持要求高溢价，导致买家却步。（档案照片）
数据显示，自去年第三季，组屋转售交易量已连续三个季度下滑，从去年第二季的8708宗交易缩减11％至第三季的7722宗。今年首季交易量更进一步减少6％，从去年第四季的6748宗下滑至6358宗，值得关注。
国家发展部长马宝山上周末出席社区活动时受访说，组屋转售交易量目前还是保持强劲，只是相对而言，交易量不比半年前来得多。
他指出，虽然美国次贷危机和整体经济局势不明朗的隐忧使私宅买家更谨慎，但并未完全影响组屋转售市场走势，因为组屋市场是以实际需求驱动。只要有年轻人想组织家庭、移民继续进入新加坡，组屋市场将继续保持活跃。
针对组屋转售交易量持续下滑，受访房地产业者认为，组屋转售市场过去出现阻力是因为一些不切实际的卖家要求的溢价（cash-over-valuation）很高，买家不愿或无力支付这么多现金。现在，估价虽然增加，买家得付的溢价减少，不过一些买家仍因售价太高而裹足不前，以致交易量减少。
C&H房地产公司董事经理卢元士说，估价师为组屋估价时会考虑屋龄、装潢和同区组屋的转售价等因素。去年房地产市场走势蓬勃，以致估价与同区组屋转售价差距拉大，因此屋主要求更高的溢价“弥补”。
“现在，组屋估价上升幅度已趋稳，估价更接近同区组屋转售价，因此屋主要求的溢价减少了。不过，组屋转售价并没减低，使一些买家仍抱着观望态度。”
房地产经纪公司ERA助理副总裁林东荣说，尽管组屋估价提高，一些不切实际的屋主仍坚持要求高溢价，导致买家却步。
其中一个情况是屋主在组屋估价报告到期的三个月后，再为组屋估价，虽然新估价提高，不过他们仍要求同样的溢价。比方说，组屋原本的估价是33万元，屋主要求3万元溢价，即使新估价增加至34万元，他们还是坚持要同样的溢价，这就把组屋转售价推高了。
林东荣也认为，建屋局最近推出更多新组屋供预购，使不少买家宁可等购新组屋，舒缓了转售市场的压力。但他对转售组屋价格持续稳健上扬有信心，估计全年可取得低于10%增长。
屋主为更快完成交易 以“零溢价”卖组屋
组屋转售交易量下滑也使一些屋主为更快完成交易，而以“零溢价”出售组屋，其中不乏成熟组屋区的组屋。宏茂桥一间五房式组屋就以零溢价出售，组屋估价是61万元，屋龄约5年。
代理销售这个单位的房屋经纪李金泉说，屋主觉得组屋条件优越，原本要求两万元的溢价，但由于估价已相当高，因此以零溢价出售。
“自刊登零溢价广告以来，超过10组人来看房子，多数人认为屋子各方面都不错，只是估价超出他们的预算。”
组屋转售市场因高售价而出现阻力，今年首五个月交易量持续下滑。
建屋发展局向本报提供的数据显示，今年首五月的平均每月组屋转售交易2290宗，与去年下半年的2410宗相比下滑了5％左右。
建屋局每个季度公布组屋转售价指数与相关资料。虽然第二季资料未出炉，不过根据目前的走势，交易量预料持续减少。
市场人士分析，尽管组屋估价提高，一些不切实际的屋主仍坚持要求高溢价，导致买家却步。（档案照片）数据显示，自去年第三季，组屋转售交易量已连续三个季度下滑，从去年第二季的8708宗交易缩减11％至第三季的7722宗。今年首季交易量更进一步减少6％，从去年第四季的6748宗下滑至6358宗，值得关注。
国家发展部长马宝山上周末出席社区活动时受访说，组屋转售交易量目前还是保持强劲，只是相对而言，交易量不比半年前来得多。
他指出，虽然美国次贷危机和整体经济局势不明朗的隐忧使私宅买家更谨慎，但并未完全影响组屋转售市场走势，因为组屋市场是以实际需求驱动。只要有年轻人想组织家庭、移民继续进入新加坡，组屋市场将继续保持活跃。
针对组屋转售交易量持续下滑，受访房地产业者认为，组屋转售市场过去出现阻力是因为一些不切实际的卖家要求的溢价（cash-over-valuation）很高，买家不愿或无力支付这么多现金。现在，估价虽然增加，买家得付的溢价减少，不过一些买家仍因售价太高而裹足不前，以致交易量减少。
C&H房地产公司董事经理卢元士说，估价师为组屋估价时会考虑屋龄、装潢和同区组屋的转售价等因素。去年房地产市场走势蓬勃，以致估价与同区组屋转售价差距拉大，因此屋主要求更高的溢价“弥补”。
“现在，组屋估价上升幅度已趋稳，估价更接近同区组屋转售价，因此屋主要求的溢价减少了。不过，组屋转售价并没减低，使一些买家仍抱着观望态度。”
房地产经纪公司ERA助理副总裁林东荣说，尽管组屋估价提高，一些不切实际的屋主仍坚持要求高溢价，导致买家却步。
其中一个情况是屋主在组屋估价报告到期的三个月后，再为组屋估价，虽然新估价提高，不过他们仍要求同样的溢价。比方说，组屋原本的估价是33万元，屋主要求3万元溢价，即使新估价增加至34万元，他们还是坚持要同样的溢价，这就把组屋转售价推高了。
林东荣也认为，建屋局最近推出更多新组屋供预购，使不少买家宁可等购新组屋，舒缓了转售市场的压力。但他对转售组屋价格持续稳健上扬有信心，估计全年可取得低于10%增长。
屋主为更快完成交易 以“零溢价”卖组屋
组屋转售交易量下滑也使一些屋主为更快完成交易，而以“零溢价”出售组屋，其中不乏成熟组屋区的组屋。宏茂桥一间五房式组屋就以零溢价出售，组屋估价是61万元，屋龄约5年。
代理销售这个单位的房屋经纪李金泉说，屋主觉得组屋条件优越，原本要求两万元的溢价，但由于估价已相当高，因此以零溢价出售。
“自刊登零溢价广告以来，超过10组人来看房子，多数人认为屋子各方面都不错，只是估价超出他们的预算。”
Buyers Bidding Up Prices Of Shophouses
Source : The Sunday Times, June 22, 2008
While sales have slumped this year after a strong run, units costing over $5m are attracting strong demand
SHOPHOUSES have been a popular choice for investors, as well as occupiers who sought to avoid the hefty office- rent increases that were so rampant last year.
But after a spectacular year, shophouse sales have sunk this year due to the cautious mood in the property market.
Shophouses near or inside the CBD, such as these units in Chinatown, are highly sought-after as they are often close to MRT stations, say consultants. -- ST FILE PHOTO
Nevertheless, new figures released by CBRE Research show that more buyers are snapping up shophouses that cost more than $5 million each.
So far this year, $98.58 million worth of properties have changed hands, compared with just above $1 billion worth for the whole of last year.
And since January, deals for shophouses worth more than $5 million each have reached 86 per cent of total sales, or $83.75 million, compared with 64 per cent of total sales or $694 million last year.
'Investors and business owners still see shophouse units as an alternative to alleviate the current supply crunch in the office market,' said CBRE Research's executive director, Mr Li Hiaw Ho.
In the past two years, demand for shophouses has shot up, raising the value of such properties, he said.
For instance, in January this year, a European fund paid $6.88 million for four shophouses in Club Street.
The seller had bought them for $3.6 million in May last year.
But not all sellers can make such gains. A lot still depends on location.
Popular with smaller set-ups
Shophouses located near or within the Central Business District (CBD) are highly sought-after as they are usually located near MRT stations, said CBRE Research.
Last month, a fairly small 1,171 sq ft shophouse in Boat Quay was sold for a hefty $5.25 million. Earlier this month, a 1,455 sq ft shophouse in Bukit Pasoh Road went for $6.2 million.
There are cheaper options.
In Tanjong Katong Road, a few shophouses spread over 8,697 sq ft were sold for $8.2 million in March, according to CBRE data.
These same units were previously transacted in July last year for $7.72 million.
'Shophouses tend to attract smaller set-ups, mainly because the shophouses are usually small,' said Mr Li.
'Some hedge funds and investment-related companies also find the units unique, similar to the townhouses which you can find in London,' he added.
Tenants for shophouses in prime locations, such as Amoy Street and Telok Ayer Street, are mostly hedge funds, law firms, architectural firms, interior designing firms and art design schools such as Sotheby's Art School, said CBRE Research.
Attractive rental yields
Rental yields for shophouses typically range from 4 to 6 per cent, above the usual residential ones of 3 to 4 per cent, said Colliers International's deputy managing director for agency & business services, Ms Grace Ng.
For owner-occupiers, shophouses may make good investments as they could be paying less in mortgage payments every month compared to monthly rent in a prime office building, property consultants said.
Still, asking rents for shophouses in prime locations have jumped by at least 40 per cent or more in the past year, said Mr Li.
Current rates in the CBD such as Telok Ayer Street are as high as $8 per sq ft (psf) to $8.50 psf a month, up from $5 psf to $6 psf a month a year ago.
This compares with current average rents of around $16 psf for prime office building space.
'Even with rising values and rents, shophouses are still attractive to tenants because of the current office supply crunch,' said Mr Li.
For investors, shophouses may prove to be a better investment than a strata office unit, which gives a typical yield of 4 to 4.5 per cent, he said.
Colliers International is marketing a two-storey corner shophouse in Peck Seah Street, off Tanjong Pagar Road, at an indicative price of $6.1 million. At this price, the buyer of the tenanted property will get a rental yield of 5 per cent.
CBRE is selling a four-storey shophouse in Tanjong Pagar Road. The two existing tenants are paying rents of between $3 psf and $4 psf a month, which give a rental yield of 3.5 per cent.
But the leases will end next year, it said. Whoever buys the property - the asking price is $9 million - can ask for rents of at least $5 or $6 psf, which would give a yield of around 5 per cent.
GOOD INVESTMENT
# For owner-occupiers, shophouses may make good investments, as they could be paying less in mortgage payments every month compared to monthly rent in a prime office building,
# Rental yields, ranging typically from 4 to 6 per cent, are often higher than for residential and office units, say property consultants.
While sales have slumped this year after a strong run, units costing over $5m are attracting strong demand
SHOPHOUSES have been a popular choice for investors, as well as occupiers who sought to avoid the hefty office- rent increases that were so rampant last year.
But after a spectacular year, shophouse sales have sunk this year due to the cautious mood in the property market.
Shophouses near or inside the CBD, such as these units in Chinatown, are highly sought-after as they are often close to MRT stations, say consultants. -- ST FILE PHOTONevertheless, new figures released by CBRE Research show that more buyers are snapping up shophouses that cost more than $5 million each.
So far this year, $98.58 million worth of properties have changed hands, compared with just above $1 billion worth for the whole of last year.
And since January, deals for shophouses worth more than $5 million each have reached 86 per cent of total sales, or $83.75 million, compared with 64 per cent of total sales or $694 million last year.
'Investors and business owners still see shophouse units as an alternative to alleviate the current supply crunch in the office market,' said CBRE Research's executive director, Mr Li Hiaw Ho.
In the past two years, demand for shophouses has shot up, raising the value of such properties, he said.
For instance, in January this year, a European fund paid $6.88 million for four shophouses in Club Street.The seller had bought them for $3.6 million in May last year.
But not all sellers can make such gains. A lot still depends on location.
Popular with smaller set-ups
Shophouses located near or within the Central Business District (CBD) are highly sought-after as they are usually located near MRT stations, said CBRE Research.
Last month, a fairly small 1,171 sq ft shophouse in Boat Quay was sold for a hefty $5.25 million. Earlier this month, a 1,455 sq ft shophouse in Bukit Pasoh Road went for $6.2 million.
There are cheaper options.
In Tanjong Katong Road, a few shophouses spread over 8,697 sq ft were sold for $8.2 million in March, according to CBRE data.
These same units were previously transacted in July last year for $7.72 million.
'Shophouses tend to attract smaller set-ups, mainly because the shophouses are usually small,' said Mr Li.
'Some hedge funds and investment-related companies also find the units unique, similar to the townhouses which you can find in London,' he added.
Tenants for shophouses in prime locations, such as Amoy Street and Telok Ayer Street, are mostly hedge funds, law firms, architectural firms, interior designing firms and art design schools such as Sotheby's Art School, said CBRE Research.
Attractive rental yields
Rental yields for shophouses typically range from 4 to 6 per cent, above the usual residential ones of 3 to 4 per cent, said Colliers International's deputy managing director for agency & business services, Ms Grace Ng.
For owner-occupiers, shophouses may make good investments as they could be paying less in mortgage payments every month compared to monthly rent in a prime office building, property consultants said.
Still, asking rents for shophouses in prime locations have jumped by at least 40 per cent or more in the past year, said Mr Li.
Current rates in the CBD such as Telok Ayer Street are as high as $8 per sq ft (psf) to $8.50 psf a month, up from $5 psf to $6 psf a month a year ago.
This compares with current average rents of around $16 psf for prime office building space.
'Even with rising values and rents, shophouses are still attractive to tenants because of the current office supply crunch,' said Mr Li.
For investors, shophouses may prove to be a better investment than a strata office unit, which gives a typical yield of 4 to 4.5 per cent, he said.
Colliers International is marketing a two-storey corner shophouse in Peck Seah Street, off Tanjong Pagar Road, at an indicative price of $6.1 million. At this price, the buyer of the tenanted property will get a rental yield of 5 per cent.
CBRE is selling a four-storey shophouse in Tanjong Pagar Road. The two existing tenants are paying rents of between $3 psf and $4 psf a month, which give a rental yield of 3.5 per cent.
But the leases will end next year, it said. Whoever buys the property - the asking price is $9 million - can ask for rents of at least $5 or $6 psf, which would give a yield of around 5 per cent.
GOOD INVESTMENT
# For owner-occupiers, shophouses may make good investments, as they could be paying less in mortgage payments every month compared to monthly rent in a prime office building,
# Rental yields, ranging typically from 4 to 6 per cent, are often higher than for residential and office units, say property consultants.