Source : The Business Times, May 13, 2009
It reverses earlier forecast of 10% slide next year, upgrades CDL to 'buy'
Goldman Sachs is now projecting a 5 per cent gain in Singapore private home prices next year, reversing its previous forecast of a 10 per cent fall in 2010. It has also upgraded City Developments, which it terms 'the Singapore residential bellwether', to a 'buy' rating from 'sell' previously.
'The recent pick-up of transaction volumes in the primary residential market is a harbinger of price stabilisation being just around the corner, in our view,' the US bank said in a report dated May 12.
It expects the residential property sector to stabilise by end-2009, ahead of the office and retail sectors, which it sees stabilising around the end of next year.
Goldman Sachs sees the average luxury residential capital value sliding some 38 per cent for the whole of 2009, on top of last year's 36 per cent drop, and the average islandwide 99-year leasehold residential capital value easing 13 per cent in 2009, similar to the 12 per cent fall last year. Much of these price declines have already taken place year to date, and Goldman Sachs sees price stability setting in by year-end.
The 5 per cent residential price increase projection for 2010 will be supported by expected healthy, above-consensus take-up activity that will gradually draw down on supply.
'Firmness witnessed in the mass end of the segment is gradually filtering up to the mid-end segments, though investors are still harbouring concerns over sustainability of demand. What may not be so apparent is the relative wealth of HDB owners,' said the report.
'We expect the pick-up in transaction volumes witnessed over the past three months to continue, driven by HDB upgrader demand in the mass end of the market as affordability has improved,' it added.
'While we acknowledge that there are still overhangs (eg deferred payment scheme defaults) weighing down on the broader sector, we think the risk/reward trade-off in the Singapore residential market is currently favourable,' the report said.
With residential cycles tending to be shorter than commercial ones, Goldman Sachs expects commercial property to underperform when recovery takes place eventually. It also continues to be relatively more cautious about the retail and office segments given the challenges that are likely to affect businesses and consumers over the near term.
'Unlike in residential, where (sales) take-up has been healthy, leasing and transaction activity in the commercial space continues to be weak,' the report noted.
'On the basis that a residential property recovery is in the works, we turn more constructive on the Singapore developers as we see the residential sector leading the property sector recovery. We think property investors (Reits) mainly exposed to commercial real estate will see trends deteriorating into 2010 and are likely to underperform when the eventual recovery does take place.'
In addition to upgrading CDL to 'buy', Goldman Sachs has upgraded Wing Tai to 'neutral' from 'sell' and reiterated its 'conviction buy' for CapitaLand for their exposure to the Singapore residential sector. For CapitaLand, it said that maiden profits from The Seafront and Orchard Residences condos expected this year should help shelter the stock from potential writedowns.
Goldman downgraded CapitaCommercial Trust to 'neutral' from 'buy' and Suntec Reit to 'sell' from 'buy'. It kept its 'sell' rating for Keppel Land, which has substantial exposure to the Singapore office market.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Mandarin Gallery At 85 Per Cent Occupancy
Source : The Business Times, May 13, 2009
MANDARIN Gallery, the high-end Orchard Road mall now undergoing a revamp, reported an 85 per cent occupancy rate yesterday - five months ahead of its re-opening in October.
Nearby Orchard Central, which is set to open in June, said last month it was 65 per cent taken up.
And another upcoming mall, Ion Orchard, had leased out more than 80 per cent of its space by March, four months before its July opening.
At a price tag of $200 million, the revamped 190,000 sq ft Mandarin Gallery will feature a 152m frontage along Singapore's prime shopping street and five flagship duplexes swathed in floor-to-ceiling glass windows.
It has already attracted several international fashion brands including Hugo Boss and Mauboussin, which will open flagship stores, as well as new labels like Trioon by upcoming local designer WeiLing Liu.
'The Mandarin Gallery proposition has resonated well with tenants and we are glad to report that we are well on target with our lease projections,' said Patrina Tan, senior vice-president of retail, marketing and leasing for Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE), which owns the mall.
OUE started by defining a core customer base, then sought out specific brands, she said. 'Essentially, our strategy is not to sell space on prime Orchard Road but make our prospective tenants understand how being at Mandarin Gallery will be of relevance to their business.'
However, faced with unfavourable economic conditions, Mandarin Gallery has joined the ranks of Orchard Central and Ion Orchard in using the tried and tested marketing strategy of rent rebates to sweeten the offerings.
'In the first quarter of 2009, when the economy started to feel the impact of the meltdown, we reviewed the terms of tenants on a case-by-case basis and made adjustments, including rent rebates and marketing collaboration assistance, to realign ourselves with their revised projections,' said Ms Tan, who declined to disclose figures.
MANDARIN Gallery, the high-end Orchard Road mall now undergoing a revamp, reported an 85 per cent occupancy rate yesterday - five months ahead of its re-opening in October.
Nearby Orchard Central, which is set to open in June, said last month it was 65 per cent taken up.
And another upcoming mall, Ion Orchard, had leased out more than 80 per cent of its space by March, four months before its July opening.
At a price tag of $200 million, the revamped 190,000 sq ft Mandarin Gallery will feature a 152m frontage along Singapore's prime shopping street and five flagship duplexes swathed in floor-to-ceiling glass windows.
It has already attracted several international fashion brands including Hugo Boss and Mauboussin, which will open flagship stores, as well as new labels like Trioon by upcoming local designer WeiLing Liu.
'The Mandarin Gallery proposition has resonated well with tenants and we are glad to report that we are well on target with our lease projections,' said Patrina Tan, senior vice-president of retail, marketing and leasing for Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE), which owns the mall.
OUE started by defining a core customer base, then sought out specific brands, she said. 'Essentially, our strategy is not to sell space on prime Orchard Road but make our prospective tenants understand how being at Mandarin Gallery will be of relevance to their business.'
However, faced with unfavourable economic conditions, Mandarin Gallery has joined the ranks of Orchard Central and Ion Orchard in using the tried and tested marketing strategy of rent rebates to sweeten the offerings.
'In the first quarter of 2009, when the economy started to feel the impact of the meltdown, we reviewed the terms of tenants on a case-by-case basis and made adjustments, including rent rebates and marketing collaboration assistance, to realign ourselves with their revised projections,' said Ms Tan, who declined to disclose figures.
Prices Creep Up After Property's Long Dive
Source : The Business Times, May 13, 2009
Developers test waters at some projects by cutting back on discounts
Some developers have quietly started raising prices a notch as they test waters after strong sales volumes seen in the first quarter.
Price adjustments are often made by reducing discount levels. On a project average basis, the effective prices for some developments may have gone up between 2 and 5 per cent compared with levels earlier this year, according to developers and property consultants.
'Developers aren't raising prices overnight. Prices are being adjusted only after clear buying momentum has set in for a project. If you look at the first and last units sold in the project, the price difference could be, say, 10 per cent; but if you look on a project average basis, the price increase would be less than 5 per cent,' says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.
The recent stock market rally has generated its share of positive sentiment. Even so, property agents say that prices of only the better-selling units have been raised in some projects, while the others have seen more widespread rises. 'Developers are careful; if they push up prices too fast, potential buyers may start looking at other projects,' one agent said.
The recent price adjustments have to be viewed against the significant price declines before that, seasoned players point out. For instance, Q1 2009 prices of mass-market condos were about 10 per cent off the peak levels in late 2007/early 2008, while for luxury condos, the price decline was steeper, at around 30-40 per cent.
DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah says that developers started to inch up prices in April and May from Q1 levels. 'In the secondary market, sellers have been more aggressive; some are asking about 5 to 10 per cent more than in Q1,' she added.
Property giant Far East Organization's residential projects such as the Mi Casa condo in Choa Chu Kang, The Lakeshore in Jurong, Hillview Regency in Bukit Batok, Floridian at Bukit Timah Road (non-premium units), and Vida at Peck Hay Road are among those that have seen slight price gains lately.
Rival City Developments is also said to have incrementally raised prices for The Arte at Thomson as sales progressed briskly. The developer has sold more than 250 units since it previewed the mid-end project in March.
BT understands that prices of the remaining 80-plus units have been adjusted upwards slightly this week. The average price is now about $900 psf and the freehold project includes a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom units.
Bukit Sembawang is also said to have introduced a single-digit per cent price hike for later units (apartments) at The Verdure at Holland Road after the initial batch of units were sold.
UOL Group and Kheng Leong are also understood to have upped prices selectively - for better-selling units - at Double Bay Residences in Simei.
A major developer said: 'Demand is better now. People are prepared to come to the negotiating table and not baulk at prices, compared with last year when it was very difficult to even get buyers to sit down. I think there's a sense that the worst is over.'
He says that the quantum of price appreciation that a developer can achieve in the current market will hinge on a project's location, the nature of the development and the profile of its buyers. 'For instance, for a prime district project with a lot of small units costing $1-2 million each, you can adjust prices a bit more, especially if you have a fair number of foreign buyers,' according to the developer. 'Mainland Chinese buyers are more optimistic, and can accept price hikes better as they have seen an upturn in their own property market,' he added.
Mr Tan says that there's currently a 'sweet spot' in the Singapore market for projects priced below $1,000 psf and on a lump-sum basis costing $1 million to $1.2 million per unit (for three-bedroom units) and $800,000 and below (for two-bedroom units). Their prices can take a sub-10 per cent increase without affordability being seriously dented.
Mr Tan argues that a small price increase will not generally price buyers out of the market or send them to the sidelines again - 'especially if they think the worst is over and don't want to miss the boat'.
'Even if the view is that we're not at the bottom yet, there seems to be a greater sense of price stability now. The thinking now is that if prices drop a further 5 or 10 per cent, can I live with it? Three months ago, there seemed to be no bottom,' Mr Tan recalls.
Agreeing, CB Richard Ellis executive director (residential) Joseph Tan says: 'Once people are more confident, they can accept the fact that price may be higher, but in an improving situation. If I believe the market has bottomed, the closer I buy to the bottom, the better it is for me. That sort of thinking is also being fuelled by the stock market rally; traditionally the residential property market lags the stock market by three to six months.'
Developers test waters at some projects by cutting back on discounts
Some developers have quietly started raising prices a notch as they test waters after strong sales volumes seen in the first quarter.
Price adjustments are often made by reducing discount levels. On a project average basis, the effective prices for some developments may have gone up between 2 and 5 per cent compared with levels earlier this year, according to developers and property consultants.
'Developers aren't raising prices overnight. Prices are being adjusted only after clear buying momentum has set in for a project. If you look at the first and last units sold in the project, the price difference could be, say, 10 per cent; but if you look on a project average basis, the price increase would be less than 5 per cent,' says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.
The recent stock market rally has generated its share of positive sentiment. Even so, property agents say that prices of only the better-selling units have been raised in some projects, while the others have seen more widespread rises. 'Developers are careful; if they push up prices too fast, potential buyers may start looking at other projects,' one agent said.
The recent price adjustments have to be viewed against the significant price declines before that, seasoned players point out. For instance, Q1 2009 prices of mass-market condos were about 10 per cent off the peak levels in late 2007/early 2008, while for luxury condos, the price decline was steeper, at around 30-40 per cent.
DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah says that developers started to inch up prices in April and May from Q1 levels. 'In the secondary market, sellers have been more aggressive; some are asking about 5 to 10 per cent more than in Q1,' she added.
Property giant Far East Organization's residential projects such as the Mi Casa condo in Choa Chu Kang, The Lakeshore in Jurong, Hillview Regency in Bukit Batok, Floridian at Bukit Timah Road (non-premium units), and Vida at Peck Hay Road are among those that have seen slight price gains lately.
Rival City Developments is also said to have incrementally raised prices for The Arte at Thomson as sales progressed briskly. The developer has sold more than 250 units since it previewed the mid-end project in March.
BT understands that prices of the remaining 80-plus units have been adjusted upwards slightly this week. The average price is now about $900 psf and the freehold project includes a mix of two-, three- and four-bedroom units.
Bukit Sembawang is also said to have introduced a single-digit per cent price hike for later units (apartments) at The Verdure at Holland Road after the initial batch of units were sold.
UOL Group and Kheng Leong are also understood to have upped prices selectively - for better-selling units - at Double Bay Residences in Simei.
A major developer said: 'Demand is better now. People are prepared to come to the negotiating table and not baulk at prices, compared with last year when it was very difficult to even get buyers to sit down. I think there's a sense that the worst is over.'
He says that the quantum of price appreciation that a developer can achieve in the current market will hinge on a project's location, the nature of the development and the profile of its buyers. 'For instance, for a prime district project with a lot of small units costing $1-2 million each, you can adjust prices a bit more, especially if you have a fair number of foreign buyers,' according to the developer. 'Mainland Chinese buyers are more optimistic, and can accept price hikes better as they have seen an upturn in their own property market,' he added.
Mr Tan says that there's currently a 'sweet spot' in the Singapore market for projects priced below $1,000 psf and on a lump-sum basis costing $1 million to $1.2 million per unit (for three-bedroom units) and $800,000 and below (for two-bedroom units). Their prices can take a sub-10 per cent increase without affordability being seriously dented.
Mr Tan argues that a small price increase will not generally price buyers out of the market or send them to the sidelines again - 'especially if they think the worst is over and don't want to miss the boat'.
'Even if the view is that we're not at the bottom yet, there seems to be a greater sense of price stability now. The thinking now is that if prices drop a further 5 or 10 per cent, can I live with it? Three months ago, there seemed to be no bottom,' Mr Tan recalls.
Agreeing, CB Richard Ellis executive director (residential) Joseph Tan says: 'Once people are more confident, they can accept the fact that price may be higher, but in an improving situation. If I believe the market has bottomed, the closer I buy to the bottom, the better it is for me. That sort of thinking is also being fuelled by the stock market rally; traditionally the residential property market lags the stock market by three to six months.'
StanChart Marks 150 Years With New Home Loan Deal
Source : The Straits Times, May 11 2009
1.5% fixed mortgage interest rate up in the offering.
STANDARD Chartered (StanChart) in Singapore is the latest bank to unveil attractive home loan packages for homebuyers and owners, as interest in residential property purchases continues to pick up.
It is introducing a package with a low interest rate of 1.5 per cent per annum for the first year.
For the second year onwards, customers will pay an annual rate equivalent to the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), plus 1.35 percentage points.
The promotion, which applies to any new mortgage taken up with the bank from yesterday till June 15, is part of StanChart's 150th anniversary celebration.
It will also throw in freebies like free valuation, legal subsidy of up to $2,000, and free fire and home content insurance.
There is also an additional perk for priority banking customers who hold StanChart's Visa Infinite card.
A quick check shows StanChart's offer to be one of the more attractive ones in town, particularly if Sibor continues to languish at well below 1 per cent.
A comparable package by Maybank - touted by the bank as the lowest three-year fixed rate home loan in town - fixes its first, second and third year rate at 1.6 per cent, 2.2 per cent and 2.9 per cent, respectively.
There is no minimum loan amount required for application.
For StanChart, the minimum loan quantum is $100,000, while the lock-in period is just two years.
Said StanChart retail banking products general manager Dennis Khoo: 'With this offer, they (customers) can enjoy more flexibility in their finances to be more agile and responsive to market changes.'
1.5% fixed mortgage interest rate up in the offering.
STANDARD Chartered (StanChart) in Singapore is the latest bank to unveil attractive home loan packages for homebuyers and owners, as interest in residential property purchases continues to pick up.
It is introducing a package with a low interest rate of 1.5 per cent per annum for the first year. For the second year onwards, customers will pay an annual rate equivalent to the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), plus 1.35 percentage points.
The promotion, which applies to any new mortgage taken up with the bank from yesterday till June 15, is part of StanChart's 150th anniversary celebration.
It will also throw in freebies like free valuation, legal subsidy of up to $2,000, and free fire and home content insurance.
There is also an additional perk for priority banking customers who hold StanChart's Visa Infinite card.
A quick check shows StanChart's offer to be one of the more attractive ones in town, particularly if Sibor continues to languish at well below 1 per cent.
A comparable package by Maybank - touted by the bank as the lowest three-year fixed rate home loan in town - fixes its first, second and third year rate at 1.6 per cent, 2.2 per cent and 2.9 per cent, respectively.
There is no minimum loan amount required for application.
For StanChart, the minimum loan quantum is $100,000, while the lock-in period is just two years.
Said StanChart retail banking products general manager Dennis Khoo: 'With this offer, they (customers) can enjoy more flexibility in their finances to be more agile and responsive to market changes.'
达士岭组屋428个单位卖出85%
Source : 《联合早报》May 13, 2009
经济不景并没有显著影响达士岭组屋（The Pinnacle@Duxton）的需求，428个摩天组屋单位已售出364个，选购率达85%。
但是，若以这批组屋在去年所获得的超过3000份申请来看，不少申请者最终打退堂鼓，没有购买任何单位。
达士岭组屋估计在今年第四季完工，共有1848个单位，超过95%单位已被选购。（陈福洲摄）
64间单位没有售出
建屋发展局发言人接受本报询问时说，该组屋的抽签选购活动已在3月31日结束，共有64间单位没有售出，它们将在往后的组屋销售活动推出。当询及剩余单位是否低楼居多，发言人说，剩余单位遍布不同楼层。
当局是在去年9月的抽签选购制度下推出428个达士岭组屋单位，这些单位是在2004年的组屋销售活动后所卖剩的。相隔4年，这些组屋的身价今非昔比，四房式的售价增加约17万元，五房式更增加约20万元。
达士岭组屋单位分S1（约等于四房式）和S2型（约等于五房式），S1型在2004年首次推出时售价28万9200元到38万零900元；S2型则卖34万5100元到43万9400元。
去年9月，S1型组屋要价45万7000元至55万5000元；S2型则售价54万5000元至64万6000元，比四年前的高出50％左右。
尽管组屋售价增加不少，公众还是趋之若鹜，400多个单位获得超过3000份申请，每个单位平均有七人申购。
不过，到了今年初的选购组屋时期，不少申请者改变主意，决定不购买组屋。如果以所售出的364个单位来推算，超过2600名申请者掉队，最终没有购买任何单位。
陈善樱（29岁，人力资源人员）和丈夫的抽签号码是88号，到他们选购组屋时，只有30个单位被售出，显示每两名申请者中，就有一人没有购买组屋。尽管如此，他们还是决定购买一间位于33楼、售价51万8000元的S1型单位。
陈善樱说，组屋价格的确偏高，经济不景也让他们重新评估是否有足够的负担能力。为谨慎起见，夫妻俩在购屋前已请财务规划师计算他们的每月收入与支出，得出的结论是他们有能力负担一间52万元的单位。
“购买组屋是一项很大的投资，我们要量力而为，确保长远来说可以支付每月房贷。”
她说，市区组屋是他们梦寐以求的，尽管价格已增加不少，夫妻俩仍相信这是一个好的投资。
HSR房产经纪公司执行董事郑来明说，申请者放弃选购组屋的原因很多，有的可能找不到心仪单位而放弃选购权，有的则可能是因经济低迷而改变购屋决定。
“他们可能束紧腰包，选择购买较便宜的组屋，或是决定延后购屋。随着组屋与大众化公寓的价格差距缩小，有的申请者也可能宁可花60至70万元买一间郊外公寓。”
OrangeTee执行董事陈道俊说，虽然放弃组屋的大有人在，达士岭组屋选购率还是很好，毕竟它的地点适中，价格合理，因此还是可以吸引很多买家。“市区的土地有限，当局短期内应该不会在那里推出新组屋，因此这是一个难得的投资机会。”
他说，尽管组屋转售价格已下滑，但达士岭组屋独具特色，往后仍有增值空间。
达士岭组屋位于丹戎巴葛达士敦坪，楼高50层共有1848个单位，超过95%单位已被选购。
作为全国最高公共住屋，地点又靠近中央商业区，达士岭组屋将是我国的地标性建筑之一。它也有与众不同的设施，包括顶层公园、位于26楼的半空公园和围绕着7座组屋而建的跑道等。组屋预计如期今年第四季完工。
经济不景并没有显著影响达士岭组屋（The Pinnacle@Duxton）的需求，428个摩天组屋单位已售出364个，选购率达85%。
但是，若以这批组屋在去年所获得的超过3000份申请来看，不少申请者最终打退堂鼓，没有购买任何单位。
达士岭组屋估计在今年第四季完工，共有1848个单位，超过95%单位已被选购。（陈福洲摄）64间单位没有售出
建屋发展局发言人接受本报询问时说，该组屋的抽签选购活动已在3月31日结束，共有64间单位没有售出，它们将在往后的组屋销售活动推出。当询及剩余单位是否低楼居多，发言人说，剩余单位遍布不同楼层。
当局是在去年9月的抽签选购制度下推出428个达士岭组屋单位，这些单位是在2004年的组屋销售活动后所卖剩的。相隔4年，这些组屋的身价今非昔比，四房式的售价增加约17万元，五房式更增加约20万元。
达士岭组屋单位分S1（约等于四房式）和S2型（约等于五房式），S1型在2004年首次推出时售价28万9200元到38万零900元；S2型则卖34万5100元到43万9400元。
去年9月，S1型组屋要价45万7000元至55万5000元；S2型则售价54万5000元至64万6000元，比四年前的高出50％左右。
尽管组屋售价增加不少，公众还是趋之若鹜，400多个单位获得超过3000份申请，每个单位平均有七人申购。
不过，到了今年初的选购组屋时期，不少申请者改变主意，决定不购买组屋。如果以所售出的364个单位来推算，超过2600名申请者掉队，最终没有购买任何单位。
陈善樱（29岁，人力资源人员）和丈夫的抽签号码是88号，到他们选购组屋时，只有30个单位被售出，显示每两名申请者中，就有一人没有购买组屋。尽管如此，他们还是决定购买一间位于33楼、售价51万8000元的S1型单位。
陈善樱说，组屋价格的确偏高，经济不景也让他们重新评估是否有足够的负担能力。为谨慎起见，夫妻俩在购屋前已请财务规划师计算他们的每月收入与支出，得出的结论是他们有能力负担一间52万元的单位。
“购买组屋是一项很大的投资，我们要量力而为，确保长远来说可以支付每月房贷。”
她说，市区组屋是他们梦寐以求的，尽管价格已增加不少，夫妻俩仍相信这是一个好的投资。
HSR房产经纪公司执行董事郑来明说，申请者放弃选购组屋的原因很多，有的可能找不到心仪单位而放弃选购权，有的则可能是因经济低迷而改变购屋决定。
“他们可能束紧腰包，选择购买较便宜的组屋，或是决定延后购屋。随着组屋与大众化公寓的价格差距缩小，有的申请者也可能宁可花60至70万元买一间郊外公寓。”
OrangeTee执行董事陈道俊说，虽然放弃组屋的大有人在，达士岭组屋选购率还是很好，毕竟它的地点适中，价格合理，因此还是可以吸引很多买家。“市区的土地有限，当局短期内应该不会在那里推出新组屋，因此这是一个难得的投资机会。”
他说，尽管组屋转售价格已下滑，但达士岭组屋独具特色，往后仍有增值空间。
达士岭组屋位于丹戎巴葛达士敦坪，楼高50层共有1848个单位，超过95%单位已被选购。
作为全国最高公共住屋，地点又靠近中央商业区，达士岭组屋将是我国的地标性建筑之一。它也有与众不同的设施，包括顶层公园、位于26楼的半空公园和围绕着7座组屋而建的跑道等。组屋预计如期今年第四季完工。