Luxury Condo Prices Come Off Their Peaks

Source : The Business Times, October 27, 2008

But most units in high-end projects still changing hands at above their launch prices

Prices for some luxury and high-end projects launched in 2006 and 2007 have come off their peaks by up to about 26 per cent, anecdotal evidence shows.

Data compiled for The Business Times by property firm DTZ shows that at selected high-profile upmarket properties launched in 2006 and 2007, prices started dipping in the third quarter of 2007 and are now between some 4 to 26 per cent off their highs.













At City Developments' The Oceanfront @ Sentosa Cove, prices have fallen some 26.4 per cent since the third quarter of 2007.

On the other end of the scale, prices at Wheelock Properties' Scotts Square, fell 3.6 per cent between their peak in Q3 2007, and the second and third quarters of this year.

In both cases, the caveat is that the volume of transactions was relatively low. There were only about 10 transactions for each project in the second and third quarters of 2008.

DTZ's data supports what other property consultants are saying - that luxury apartments in prime districts are harder hit by the current downturn.

Knight Frank's in-house numbers show for example that prices of luxury apartments in Districts 9, 10 and 11 have fallen by 12-13 per cent since the start of the year.

And the fall is gathering pace, said Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.

Savills also reported that its in-house price index, which tracks luxury and 'super-luxury' projects, fell 10 per cent from January to July this year. Other analysts estimate that prices at some condos are around 20-30 per cent lower than during last year's peak.

The drop has been larger than expected. Knight Frank, for example, was expecting to see a 10 per cent fall in high-end residential prices for the whole of 2008.

Official numbers show that residential prices in the upmarket core central region started to fall in the third quarter of 2008, and has to date registered a 2.7 per cent drop. These numbers, however, take into account all property transactions.

Despite the price correction, property firms say that most units in high-end projects are still being transacted at prices higher than their launch prices. DTZ's data supports this.

The price falls from Q3 2007 are partially due to property investors and speculators selling out, said DTZ's senior director of research Chua Chor Hoon. 'For some projects launched in late 2006 and early 2007, there was a lot of speculation as the market was very bullish,' she said.

Luxury and high-end residential projects attract more investors and speculators than the broader residential market. With the current economic downturn, many of them are off- loading their properties.

Knight Frank's Mr Mak said: 'Right now, what everyone is saying is that cash is king.'

The availability of cheap and ready credit in 2006 and 2007 boosted property sales then. But now, banks have cut back on the amount of financing they are willing to offer to home buyers who are seen to be speculators and/or investors - as opposed to owner- occupiers, who are thought to be lesser credit risks.

In the past, most buyers were able to obtain 80 per cent financing for homes. In contrast, banks now offer speculators and investors only 60-70 per cent financing.

Ku Swee Yong, director of marketing and business development at Savills Singapore, believes that prices at projects that will soon receive their temporary occupation permits (TOPs) could go even lower.

Speculators who bought homes under the deferred payment scheme (DPS) could sell as TOP approaches. Under the DPS scheme offered by most high-end properties launched in 2006 and 2007, buyers could pay only a 10 per cent or 20 per cent downpayment, with the rest due upon completion. With TOP, these speculators will have to fork out a big chunk of the remaining sum owing.

'So there is the danger of price drops as TOP approaches,' Mr Ku said. 'But how much prices fall at each property depends on the profile of the buyers there.'

Most agents BT spoke to said they have yet to see fire sales though the pressure could continue to build up.

During the Asian Financial Crisis, the official Urban Redevelopment Authority price index fell 40 per cent from Q2 1997 to Q4 1998.

'In the next six to nine months, we are going to see downward pressure (on prices) across the board,' said Knight Frank's Mr Mak. 'And how severe the chill that spreads across the property market will be depends on the real economy in Singapore, especially the employment market.'

Phillip Securities Research analyst Alfred Low expects high-end property prices to fall by 15-25 per cent in the next four quarters.

Others are more bearish. Morgan Stanley analysts Melissa Bon and Brian Wee on Oct 24 took a more aggressive approach to cutting residential prices and projected that residential prices for the mid-high end segment will fall by 75 per cent for the next three years.

HDB Prices Up As Demand Rises

Source : The Business Times, October 25, 2008

Rents also rise, Q3 data shows; prices and rents of private mass-market homes fall as demand shifts to HDB flats

DEMAND is shifting to HDB flats from mass-market private homes - pushing up HDB prices and rents, but causing mass-market home prices and rents to fall.

Figures released yesterday by the Housing & Development Board (HDB) and Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) show HDB's resale price index rose 4.2 per cent in the third quarter.

This means that in the first nine months of 2008, HDB resale prices climbed 12.4 per cent. The number of transactions also increased in Q3 to 8,110, from 7,760 in Q2.

In contrast, private mass-market properties put up a decidedly lacklustre showing in Q3. Prices of non-landed properties in the outside central region - where most mass-market private homes are located - fell 1.5 per cent.

The decline was not expected - most analysts have said mass-market home prices will hold steady this year.

'In contrast to the private property market, despite the gloomy economic outlook, demand in the resale HDB market is still very active, with buyers coming from up-graders, down-graders and Permanent Residents,' said ERA assistant vice-president Eugene Lim.

Analysts attribute this to a shift in demand towards HDB flats and away from private mass-market projects.

'Demand is moving towards the HDB market,' said Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank. 'A greater proportion of new homeowners, such as newlyweds and new immigrants, are looking only at HDB flats.'

In the past, a greater proportion of new homeowners would have considered private mass-market apartments, he said: 'Compared to purchasing private residential properties, buying an HDB flat may allow some to set aside funds for liquidity during this uncertainty.'

More people are also eligible to buy HDB flats now. Statistics show the number of Singapore citizens and Permanent Residents (PRs) is set to hit a record this year. In the first half of 2008, there were 34,800 new PRs and 9,600 new citizens, up from 28,500 new PRs and 7,300 new citizens in H1 last year.

Another reason homebuyers are choosing HDB flats over private mass-market homes is that HDB flat prices are still rising, while prices of private homes are falling.

'People want the asset they buy to appreciate in value. In the HDB market there is still room for prices to move up,' said Ku Swee Yong, director of marketing and business development at Savills Singapore. At Sengkang, where HDB flats are going for around $250,000-$300,000, prices could climb 5-10 per cent in the next few quarters, he said.

Private mass-market rents have also been hit by the shift in demand. They fell 2.7 per cent in Q3, as demand switched to the HDB rental market. Overall median sub-let rents for HDB flats rose slightly in Q3.

But looking ahead, even growth in HDB prices is expected to slow as the economy worsens. 'As such, although there is good demand for resale HDB flats, we expect buyers to turn more cautious and exercise more prudence by offering less for flats so as not to overstretch,' said ERA's Mr Lim.

Because of this, cash-over-valuation (COV) figures will continue to decline in the coming quarters, analysts say. The median COV for resale transactions fell to $19,000 in Q3, from $20,000 in Q2 and $21,000 in Q1.

The bigger drops in median COVs were for five-room flats (down 15 per cent) and executive flats (down 22 per cent), notes Mohd Ismail, chief executive of PropNex. 'This is evidence of buyers resisting paying larger COVs for larger properties in this bleak economy,' he said.

The increasing popularity of smaller three and four-room flats was also reflected in the median resale prices. The increase for smaller flats, at almost 5 per cent, outstripped the 1.5 per cent increase for larger flats.

HDB resale prices are expected to continue to increase, but probably at a more measured pace in the coming months.

ERA's Mr Lim said: 'For 2008 we may see an overall price increase of 15-17 per cent, slightly lower than the 17.5 per cent increase for the whole of 2007. As for 2009, we are likely to see only marginal quarterly price increases, as current resale prices are a new peak.'

Likewise, PropNex's Mr Ismail expects the HDB resale price index to increase about 15 per cent for the whole of 2008.

Private Property Prices Seen Falling 5-6% In '09-10

Source : The Business Times, October 25, 2008

This will be so even under NUS economist's best-case projection for the Singapore economy

PRIVATE property prices will fall 5-6 per cent in the next two years even if the Singapore economy holds up, according to an economist's projections.

National University of Singapore economist Tilak Abeysinghe's forecasts see the domestic economy growing 3 per cent in 2009 - and one percentage point higher and lower under the best and worst-case scenarios.

In all three scenarios though, his simulations result in 5-6 per cent price falls a year in 2009 and 2010. Only in the optimistic outlook is there a projected 1.4 per cent rebound in 2011.

Already, the latest official figures show a 2.4 per cent dip in private housing prices in the third quarter from Q2 - the first decline since the property market bottomed out in 2004.

Housing prices tend to accelerate faster than expected during upswings and fall faster than expected during downswings, Dr Abeysinghe noted. He presented his findings yesterday at the Singapore Economic Policy Conference, jointly organised by the three local universities.

Since 1975, private property prices here have risen about 7 per cent a year - and with the uptrend, housing affordability has declined over the years.

Dr Abeysinghe's findings show the housing affordability index for private home owners at the lower end of the income range (up to the 25th percentile) fell to 0.5 in 2007, from near-two in the late-1970s.

An index of exactly one means the household's lifetime income is just enough to pay for the property. A measure below one implies 'perpetual debt' for the household.

The affordability index for private property owners in the medium income group averaged 1.2 over the period 1980-2007. This implies that if the household bought a property that cost $1 million, it would be left with $200,000 of income over its lifetime.

For high-income households, the index is a stronger 2.1 over the period 1980-2007. That's still well below the index for HDB households - which ranges from three for the low-income group to 9.4 for the richest.

So while rising home prices spell higher wealth for individuals, the economy as a whole may not be 'better off' if highly-geared households have less to spend, Dr Abeysinghe says, alluding to the paradox of thrift.

More predictable increases in property prices that do not erode long-term affordability are desirable and needed for the economy's health.

The conference also heard from Nanyang Technological University professor Choy Keen Meng that policy efforts to reduce inflation by one percentage point would result in about a two-point fall in GDP growth.

This 'sacrifice ratio' of two compares with around 3-4 for the US and an average 2.5 for the OECD.

URA Figures Ease Fears Of Housing Glut

Source : The Straits Times, Oct 25, 2008

Only 8,538 new private homes to be ready in 2010 - down from 11,788 in 2nd-quarter forecast

WORRIES about an oversupply of private homes are receding after the release of government figures that, for the first time, offer a detailed geographical breakdown of new homes in the pipeline.

It was the second straight quarter that the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) had lowered its forecast of home completions for 2010 and beyond.

The URA now expects only 8,538 homes to be ready in 2010 - down substantially from the 11,788 homes that it had forecast in the second quarter. Earlier, in the first quarter, it had forecast a whopping 17,545 homes.

In all, its forecast for the number of uncompleted homes in the pipeline dropped to 67,463 units in the third quarter, from 71,643 units in the second and 74,208 units in the first.

The lower supply figures would ease downward pressure on rentals, said Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy, Mr Nicholas Mak.

Earlier, concerns were building as the supply numbers remained high even as the market slowed considerably this year and the financial turmoil raged on.

The URA now expects to see 16,145 private homes completed in 2011, down from 19,559 in the second quarter.

And home completions in 2012 and beyond 2012 are now at 16,742 units and 13,565 units respectively, compared with 14,179 and 10,826 previously.

Savills Singapore's director of business development and marketing, Mr Ku Swee Yong, said the lower URA completion figures are a result of developers deferring projects due to the slow take-up rates of new homes and high construction costs.

The delays in completion dates were expected, given insufficient construction resources, completion delays in collective sales and delayed launches, he said.

Since the market turned quiet at the start of the year, many developers have delayed launches.

In the first nine months of this year, developers launched 5,401 private homes for sale - just 44 per cent of the total launches in the same period last year, said Knight Frank.

In the same period, they sold a total of 3,845 private homes, which is only 29 per cent of the sale figures in the corresponding period last year.

Yesterday, for the first time, URA released more detailed pipeline supply data, breaking down supply by the three main regions and expected year of completion. The Straits Times proposed such a breakdown in a commentary last month.

The URA made this information available separately on its website.

The data showed that there is a pipeline supply of 23,008 private homes in the core central region which includes districts 9, 10 and 11, down from 24,582 in the second quarter.

Supply in city-fringe areas such as Bukit Timah, Newton and Toa Payoh, rose to 19,736, from 19,053 in the second quarter.

As for the suburban areas, the pipeline supply fell slightly to 23,678 units, from 23,934 in the previous quarter.

According to the new URA data, just 733 homes in the core central region would be ready this year, down from the 2,363 expected in the second quarter.

While the drop next year is not dramatic, considerably fewer high-end homes will come to market from 2010 onwards.


Coming up

Number of private homes expected to be completed:

# In 2008: 2,440
# In 2009: 10,033
# In 2010: 8,538
# In 2011: 16,145
# In 2012: 16,742
# After 2012: 13,565
# Total 67,463

SOURCE: URA

URA Data Shows More Completions Put On Hold

Source : The Business Times, October 25, 2008

URBAN Redevelopment Authority yesterday gave the public greater access to data on property supply in the pipeline, particularly for private homes, detailing the expected year of completion, location of the supply by regions, and development status.

The additional information was included in URA's press release on Q3 2008 real estate data, although the information has always been available through its Realis system.

There were 66,422 uncompleted private homes from projects in the pipeline (with either provisional or written permission) as at end-Q3 2008, of which 23,008 units were in Core Central Region, 19,736 units in Rest of Central Region and 23,678 in Outside Central Region. About 51 per cent of the 66,400-plus total units in the pipeline are under construction.

URA said that 37,051 private homes are scheduled for completion between Q4 this year and end-2011. This is 20 per cent or 9,429 units lower than the 46,480 units slated for completion between Q3 2008 and end-2011 listed in URA's end-Q2 data.

Of these, 2,195 units were completed in Q3 this year and have hence been removed from the supply pipeline. Other completions have been put on hold as some developments have been postponed. Weak market sentiment and higher construction costs have also delayed the construction of some projects.

Notwithstanding this, the 66,422-unit total supply of new private homes in the pipeline is not far off from the 67,569 units as at end-Q2 2008. More of these homes may now see completion post-2011.

URA's data also showed that about 1.03 million sq m of office space, 500,000 sq m of business park space and 685,000 sq m of retail space are expected to be completed between Q4 this year and end-2011.

Projects that received provisional permission in Q3 include MGPA's office, hotel and mall development at Marina View and a 46,010 sq m retail project at Serangoon Central by a unit of Pramerica Real Estate Investors (Asia). SingTel was also given approval for additions/alterations to its existing Pickering Operations Complex and City Exchange at George St/Pickering St. The approval is for 7,860 sq m of offices and 300 sq m of shop space.

Rents Get Squeezed By Credit Crunch

Source : TODAY, Weekend, October 25, 2008

THE leasing market has become the latest casualty of Singapore’s weakening property market, with both residential and office rents posting their first declines since 2004 in the third quarter of this year.




















According to Urban Redevelopment Authority figures released yesterday, rentals of private residential properties fell 0.9 per cent in the third quarter, compared to a 2.5 per cent rise in the second quarter. Office rents declined 0.8 per cent, swinging from a 6.3 per cent rise in the previous quarter.

Most analysts attributed falling residential rents to the double whammy of increased supply and weakening demand as the financial sector deals with the severe crisis.

“Instead of increasing headcount, most multinationals are holding back and waiting, so fewer expatriates are coming in,” said ERA Asia Pacific’s assistant vice-president, Mr Eugene Lim. At the same time, developers are holding off developments of their enbloc sites due to the credit crunch and rising construction costs. They are instead renting out these units, resulting in a sudden surge in supply, added Mr Lim.

Additional supply from completed projects will accelerate rental declines in the coming quarters, said Mr Colin Tan, Chesterton Suntec International’s research head. But this may not necessarily be a bad thing for Singapore. “On a country level, Singapore will now be more competitive, since rentals had started off on the high side,” he said.

Meanwhile, HDB prices continued to show resilience amid the downturn, posting a 4.2-per-cent rise. That was a slight moderation from the 4.5-per-cent increase in the previous quarter, which PropNex chief Mohamed Ismail attributed to the overall drop in median cash-over-valuation (COV) to $19,000.

“It’s interesting to note that the bigger drops in median COV were for five-room flats and executive flats. This is evidence of buyers resisting paying out larger COV for larger properties in this bleak economy,” he said.

Still, Chesterton’s Mr Tan finds the 4.2-per-cent hike “extremely disturbing” as it bucks the trend amid deteriorating fundamentals. “It must mean that there is a real shortage of resale flats. This can happen when there are more downgraders than anticipated and secondly, few sellers are upgrading to the private market, because of its affordability.”

Prices in the private residential property market fell 2.4 per cent, worse than the earlier flash estimates of 1.8 per cent.

ERA’s Mr Lim noted that some investors hit by the recent stock market plunge have started to offload their properties in “fire sales” to raise cash, although any major price declines going forward depends on the extent of such scenarios and whether developers also start to lower prices.

Overall, Knight Frank’s research head Nicholas Mak expects private residential prices this year to contract up to 3 per cent.

Private Home Prices And Rents Down

Source : The Straits Times, Oct 25, 2008

PRIVATE home prices in Singapore fell faster than expected in the third quarter as the global financial turmoil weighed heavily on already weakened market sentiment.

The price slide is expected to continue into next year, property consultants said.

But the HDB resale flat market continued to buck the trend, with prices rising 4.2 per cent in the third quarter following a 4.5 per cent rise in the second quarter.

They have now surpassed the peak seen in the fourth quarter of 1996. But analysts expect this growth trend to slow as buyers turn cautious.

Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) data yesterday put the private home price dip at 2.4 per cent for the period ended Sept30, the first contraction after 17 straight quarters of growth.

This compares with an initial estimate of a 1.8 per cent drop released by URA earlier this month. In the previous quarter, private home prices rose 0.2 per cent.

The outlook is grim. Since the end of the third quarter, global markets have tumbled further and Singapore officially entered a technical recession. Buyers expecting a full-blown recession are set to become even more cautious, analysts say.

Colliers International's director for research and advisory, Ms Tay Huey Ying, said the lower-than-expected third-quarter private home price figure indicates that sales recorded in the last two weeks of the quarter were done at lower prices.

The price fall was led by luxury homes, as such properties in choice areas like Orchard Road and Sentosa Cove posted a 2.7 per cent fall after slipping just 0.1 per cent in the previous quarter.

Prices of city-fringe homes dropped 2.4 per cent, compared with a 0.7 per cent rise in the the April-toJune period.

Suburban homes, which showed the strongest growth of 0.9 per cent in the second quarter, fell 1.5 per cent in the third. Landed home prices, which inched up 0.6 per cent in the second quarter, fell 1.9 per cent.

In a reversal from relentless rent increases of recent years, rentals of private homes fell by 0.9 per cent compared with a 2.5 per cent rise in the second quarter. Like home prices, the fall in rents was the first after 17 straight quarters of growth.

Mass-market homes saw a bigger fall of 2.7 per cent in rents, compared with 0.7 per cent for coveted high-end homes and 0.5 per cent for city-fringe homes.

The growing market caution was also reflected in resale and sub-sale deals. A total of 1,974 resale deals and 462 sub-sales were done in the third quarter, down from 2,291 resale deals and 518 sub-sales in the previous period.

Given the worsening global financial climate, private homes prices are expected to continue slipping. 'The momentum of home sales will likely slow down due to either the increasing difficulty in obtaining loans or buyers' anticipation of further price cuts,' said CBRE Research's executive director Li Hiaw Ho.

In the HDB market, resale transactions rose 4 per cent to 8,110 sales, amid continued buying from permanent residents and Singaporeans upgrading from a smaller flat or downgrading from a private home.

While the sector is still strong, property experts are expecting slower price growth ahead as current resale prices have hit a new peak. With slower economic growth and possible job losses, buyers are likely to turn more cautious and exercise more prudence by offering less for the flats so as not to overstretch, said ERA Asia-Pacific's associate director Eugene Lim.

On a brighter note, URA revised down its supply figures, dispelling the prospect of a private home oversupply.

Its data also showed that office rents have slipped by 0.8 per cent, compared with 6.3 per cent growth in the second quarter.

Shop rents also dipped 0.6 per cent islandwide in the third quarter, reversing a growth of 5.2 per cent in the second.

Industrial rents rose, but at a slower pace.

Private Property Prices, Rents Fall

Source : The Business Times, October 25, 2008

URA's private-home price index down 2.4% in Q3; industrial property prices, rents make gains

OFFICIAL data released yesterday confirmed that the private property market has started sliding backwards, while analysts tried to work out how much of its recent gains it would eventually give up.

Price and rental indices for private homes, offices and shops fell in Q3 over the preceding quarter - for the first time since the market bottomed in 2004. Industrial property prices and rents still managed to register quarter-on-quarter gains in Q3, albeit at a slower pace than the increases reported in Q2.
















Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) price index for private homes declined 2.4 per cent in Q3 over the preceding quarter, more pronounced than the 1.8 per cent drop indicated in a flash estimate earlier this month.

The Q3 private-home price index is still 8.3 per cent higher than a year ago, leading some analysts such as JPMorgan's Chris Gee to say the official price indices are lagging market expectations. 'If you wanted to close a condo sale today, you'd expect the price to be around 20-30 per cent lower than last year's peak.'

Between the trough in Q1 2004 and the peak in Q2 this year, URA's price indices appreciated 68 per cent for offices, 58 per cent for private homes and 39 per cent for shop space. The question is how much of these gains will be surrendered during this downcycle and how long the slump will last.

The optimistic view is that about half the gains could be lost in a downcycle lasting until end-2009.

Some pessimists suggest the downturn will drag for around two to three years, and see prices easing back to the previous trough, that is, all the gains will be lost. 'Although the Singapore economy is much broader-based today than a few years ago, financial services was a key driver of recent economic growth and had a disproportionate impact on the high-end residential and prime office markets. So if the financial industry tanks, the impact will be greater on these two property segments,' said an analyst with a US bank.

A property industry veteran said: 'This property slump will be much worse than the one during the Asian financial crisis; this time, we have a global crisis. We still don't know what the entire suite of knock-on effects will be. Right now, it's consumers lacking confidence. Failures may come from many other sources, some of which will be unexpected. The downtrend has begun and is not expected to reverse any time soon.'

URA's data showed that developers sold 1,558 private homes in Q3, up 2.2 per cent from 1,525 units in Q2. The 3,845 private homes developers sold in the first nine months of this year are about a quarter of the 14,811 units they sold for the whole of last year.

A property analyst pointed out that an even more alarming trend was the decline in resale transactions of private homes, which have slipped from a high of 7,776 units in Q2 2007 to 1,974 units in Q3 this year.

'Resale transactions are sometimes seen as a proxy for the level of genuine demand, whereas the primary market tends to attract more investment/speculative demand and the subsale market is an even more direct proxy for the level of speculation,' the property analyst from the US bank said.

The number of private-home subsales islandwide fell 10.8 per cent quarter on quarter to 462 in Q3. Subsales accounted for 11.6 per cent of total private housing transactions in Q3, down from a 12 per cent share in Q2.

In the Core Central Region, subsales made up 24.1 per cent of total transactions in Q3, an increase from a 22 per cent share in Q3. The rising subsale share in the region was on the back of a 29 per cent drop in developer sales in Q3.

Meanwhile, URA's Q3 price indices for non-landed private homes fell 2.7 per cent quarter on quarter in Core Central Region, 2.4 per cent in Rest of Central Region and 1.5 per cent in Outside Central Region (OCR).

The official price indices for office and shop space declined 3.9 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively in Q3. The all-industrial property price index rose 0.9 per cent.

The public housing market continued to buzz, with Housing & Development Board's resale flat price index rising 4.2 per cent quarter on quarter in Q3.

Colliers International director Tay Huey Ying said that developers' sales failing to keep pace with launches led to a surge in the stock of launched but unsold private homes in uncompleted projects to 3,570 units in Q3, almost 30 per cent higher than Q2's 2,755 units and more than double the recent low of 1,658 units in Q2 2007.

Knight Frank director Nicholas Mak expects the decline in private home prices and rentals to persist. 'With the slowdown in the private residential market, it is anticipated that developers could sell between 4,900 and 5,400 units in 2008, which would be only about one-third of the primary market sales last year,' he added.

Home Sales Record Biggest Gain Since July 2003

Source : The Business Times, October 25, 2008

(Washington) SALES of previously owned US homes rose 5.5 per cent last month, the biggest gain since July 2003, and the inventory of unsold homes fell, a hopeful sign for a housing market mired in a long slump.

The National Association of Realtors said yesterday that sales of existing homes rose to a 5.18 million unit annual rate from the 4.91 million unit pace set in August. Economists had expected sales to rise to only a 4.93 million unit rate.

It was the first time the sales pace had risen above its year-ago level in three years, a sign the market could be stabilising.

The surprisingly large jump in sales pushed the inventory of unsold homes down by 1.6 per cent to 4.27 million, or a 9.9 months' supply at the current pace.

Home prices, however, showed no signs of escaping their long, deep slide. The median national home price declined 9 per cent from a year ago to US$191,600, the lowest level since April 2004, the industry trade group said.

The increase in sales was spurred by a rise in foreclosure and other 'distress sales' in regions of the country hard-hit by the ongoing housing downturn, said the Realtors' chief economist, Lawrence Yun.

'In some regions, the lower prices are seeing buyers return to the marketplace,' he noted. 'This was a nice jump and hopefully this trend can continue because the first step to stabilising the market is an increase in home sales.'

Sales rose in three regions, with the West recording a 16.8 per cent jump. The Midwest saw an increase of 4.4 per cent and the South saw a 2.2 per cent rise. In the Northeast, sales fell 1.2 per cent.

Housing has been suffering through its worst downturn in decades following a five-year boom that ended in 2006, and builders have been responded by cutting back drastically. -- Reuters, AP

第三季指数超过1996年创新高 组屋转售价已近顶峰

Source :《联合早报》October 25, 2008

在金融危机及私宅价格下滑阴影下，市场人士表示，组屋转售价格已接近顶峰，下来将开始持平走势。即使有增长，幅度也将放缓。

金融危机恶化，但还未影响组屋转售市场，第三季转售价指数上扬了4.2％，增至137.5点，突破1996年高峰。

在金融危机及私宅价格下滑阴影下，市场人士表示，组屋转售价格已接近顶峰，下来将开始持平走势。

但在金融危机及私宅价格下滑阴影下，市场人士表示，组屋转售价格已接近顶峰，下来将开始持平走势。即使有所增长，幅度也将放缓，到了明年增幅甚至可能微乎其微。

建屋发展局昨天公布第三季组屋转售市场数据。组屋转售指数连续上涨8个季度，不过今年第三季增幅已比第二季的4.5%来得少。

溢价降低市场降温

所有转售交易的溢价（cash-over-valuation）中位数是1万9000元，也比第二季的2万元来得低，多少反映市场降温的现象。

与第二季度相似，有89%的交易需付溢价，其余交易以估价或低于估价成交。

组屋转售价指数在1996年房屋市场红火时高达136.9点，隔年亚洲金融危机暴发，导致屋价猛跌，即使价格近两年来攀升也未突破当年高峰。如今组屋转售价格再创新高，却适逢环球金融危机扩大之际，使市场再敲警钟。　
对于历史重演的可能性，Dennis Wee房地产经纪行董事许家荣受访时说：“下来一年，组屋转售价格将保持平稳，起落的幅度估计不大，因为它仍有基本需求支撑。”

他说，组屋转售价格已增加不少，相信现在已达顶峰。转售价指数是以过去三个月交易衡量，环球经济则是在近期急转直下，因此预计要到下个季度才能看见环球经济对组屋转售价的影响。

房地产经纪公司ERA助理副总裁林东荣也有相同看法。他说，随着新加坡经济陷入技术性衰退，情况还可能进一步恶化，难免会对组屋转售价格构成压力。

目前，组屋转售市场仍保持活跃，买家除永久居民，还包括换大屋或小屋的国人。林东荣说，买家将变得更谨慎，出价可能减少，因此估计溢价将进一步下滑，使组屋转售价格不会增加太多。

博纳集团（PropNex）总裁伊斯迈则指出，五房式和公寓式组屋的溢价中位数下跌得较快，除反映小型组屋一向吃香，也说明买家不愿在经济不景时以高溢价购买大型组屋。

根据建屋局数据，各类型组屋转售价中位数（median）分别是三房式23万2000元、四房式31万3000元、五房式38万元及公寓式45万5000元。

今年首9个月，组屋转售价格已增加12.4%，市场人士估计全年增幅介于15%至17%，比去年的17.4%全年增幅来得低。

第三季的组屋转售交易量达8112宗，比上个季度的7763宗交易多4％。

在新组屋方面，建屋局今年推出5000个单位供预购，并根据需求在榜鹅、盛港和义顺推出3400间预购组屋。

建屋局至今已在设计、兴建和销售计划（Design,Build and Sell Scheme，简称DBSS）下推出6块地段。当局原本有意在今年第四季推出勿洛的DBSS地段，不过现在则表示会继续观察市场情况，才决定何时推出。

租赁市场方面，组屋租金也一反私宅租金跌势，持续上扬，不过增幅不大。三房式的租金中位数保持在1500元，四房式到公寓式组屋的租金中位数则增加50元至100元，增幅介于3%至5%左右。

第三季私宅价指数跌2.4％

Source :《联合早报》October 25, 2008

全球金融风暴所刮起的滔天巨浪，已几乎全线冲击到我国的房地产市场。不但是高档私宅价格，就连中低档私宅、办公楼，以及商店的价格和租金，也都在今年第三季扭转风向，出现自2004年以来的第一次下跌。

市区重建局昨天发表的数据显示，今年第三季私宅价格指数由177.5点下滑至173.3点，跌幅达2.4％。这比本月初预估的下跌1.8％来得严重。这也是新加坡私宅价格指数在连续上涨了17个季度，或四年多后，首次下滑。

在所有领域中，只有工业房地产仍逆流而上，甚至是办公楼和商店的价格和租金，也终于抵受不住风暴的侵袭，第一次滑落。今年第三季，办公楼价格和租金分别下跌了3.9％和0.8％，商店价格和租金则分别下跌了0.3％和0.6％。

高力（Colliers)国际研究部主管郑惠匀说：“（9月发生的一连串金融事件导致）市场的信心和情绪深受震撼，所有领域和持有目的的房地产需求都全线消退，早已显露疲态的价格和租金终于再也守不住防线。”

房地产分析员相信，这只是一个开始，本地房地产价格和租金将在未来几个月进一步下跌。

房价与办公楼租金 跌势仍将持续

展望第四季，分析员认为，本地私宅价格还会继续下跌2％至5％。办公楼租金则未来一年可能每季下滑3％至5％。

世邦魏理仕(CB Richard Ellis)执行董事李晓和估计，第四季的私宅价格可能继续下滑2％至4％。麦俊荣则预测，2008年全年的私宅价格可能下跌0％至3％。

郑惠匀解释，这场金融大风暴导致数以亿元的资金从股票和信贷市场中蒸发掉，因此国际投资者将持谨慎的态度，避开房地产投资。再加上新加坡已成为亚洲第一个陷入技术性经济衰退的国家，买家的信心将进一步削弱，对“房事”更为小心。

她估计：“私宅价格将在今年最后一季，甚至到2009年都走软。2008年全年，私宅价格可能下跌2％至4％。”

过去四年多，本地的楼市都由中高档私宅带动上扬，现在也同样由这两个领域带动下滑。代表豪宅价格的CRC指数在第三季下跌2.7％了，其中未完工的楼花跌得更严重(3.6％)。代表中档楼价的RCR指数则跌2.4％。代表大众化领域的OCR指数，因为有组屋转售市场支撑，所以只跌1.5％。

不过，在租金方面，却是大众化共管公寓下跌得比中高档共管公寓来得厉害。大众化公寓的租金下跌了2.7％，但中高档公寓的租金只下滑了0.5％至0.7％。

郑惠匀认为，这可能是因为最近几个月有好几个高档豪宅项目完工，协助扶持了租金市场。这包括滨海舫(The Sail)、都市名苑(The Cosmopolitan)、The Azure，以及巴德申居(Paterson Residences)。

唯一逆流向上的是独立式洋房，该领域的租金仍然攀升了0.6％。李晓和认为，这可能是因为独立洋房的供应有限。

今年第三季，发展商将2244个私宅单位推出市场销售，但只有1558个找到买家。这带动今年首三季推出的私宅单位达到5401个，只有去年同期的44％。今年首三季卖出的私宅单位更少，只有3845个，这相等于去年同时期的29％。

李晓和相信，接下来的房地产买卖活动还会继续放缓，这或许是因为屋主不容易安排房贷，也可能是因为买家期望价格会进一步下跌。

他估计，只有1000至1400个新私宅单位能在今年第四季找到买家，这意味2008年的私宅市场“消化能力”只会达到4845至5245个新私宅单位，是自2003年以来最差的一年。

国大副教授：私宅价格明年料下调5至5.7％

Source :《联合早报》October 25, 2008

我国私宅价格预计将在明年下调5.0％至5.7％。

新加坡国立大学经济系副教授蒂拉克（Tilak Abeysinghe）根据我国未来几年经济增长的三种可能性，预估了本地私宅价格的变化。

他昨日在新加坡经济政策大会上表示，把经济增长分为乐观、中性和悲观三种情况考虑，若明年经济增长达到4％，私宅价格预计将下滑5％，而如果明年经济增长为3％或2％，私人房地产的价格将分别下滑5.4％或5.7％。

随着经济环境日益严峻，房地产市场也有所冷却，但私宅价格的调整仍然十分有限，市场依然存在着一定的阻力。

蒂拉克表示，这些阻力将会消失。如果项目如期推出，加上经济衰退的不利因素，将出现私宅供应高出需求的现象，其价格也不得不降低。

不过他也指出，这一次房地产价格的回落将不会像上一次那样严重，最多下滑6％，除非世界经济衰退到非常严重的境地。

今年以来，全球的经济增长开始逐渐放缓，上半年由于能源和食品价格的大幅上涨，通货膨胀也一度成为了世界经济的头号公敌。在本地，金融管理局则是通过缩紧货币政策，加速新元上升的步伐来抑制通货膨胀的压力。

南洋理工大学人文与社会科学院助理教授蔡建明表示，金管局利用货币政策有效地抑制了进口通胀，但这也造成了经济增长的放缓。

他指出，央行在制定政策时，既要考虑保持价格稳定，也要照顾到增长放缓所付出的代价，从中取得平衡。而牺牲率（sacrifice ratio）就可以显示每降低通胀一个百分点，产值的累计损失为多少。

蔡建明表示，新加坡的牺牲率为2，这样的比例不算高，美国的牺牲率为3至4，而经济合作与发展组织（OECD）成员国的平均值为2.5。

考虑到降低通胀对经济增长的影响，加上外部经济前景的恶化，以及食品和能源价格的回落，蔡建明也对金管局最近采取的较为放松的货币政策表示欢迎。

金管局在本月10日决定放宽货币政策，不让新元币值上升，并宣布了零升值的货币政策立场，让新元贸易加权汇率在当前的可波动范围内保持零增长。

年初至今下跌超过三成 未来三年完工新私宅将减1万6000个

Source :《联合早报》October 25, 2008

（吴慧敏报道）未来三年一直被视为本地楼市的完工高峰期，但市区重建局在过去三个季度发表的房地产数据却显示，即将在2009年至2011年完工的新私宅单位一减再减，短短九个月就“不见了”1万6072个潜在供应量。

根据市建局在今年初发表的第一季报告书，原本有5万零788个新私宅单位估计会在2009年至2011年完工。随后发表的第二季报告书中，有关数据减少至4万1765个单位。到了昨天发表的第三季报告书，这个潜在供应量更进一步减少到3万4716个单位，前前后后下跌了超过三成。

这相信是因为发展商考虑到市场环境已经改变，购屋需求大跌，所以纷纷展延房地产项目的动工日期。再加上建筑业的资源已经绷得非常紧，工程进度缓慢，所以不少项目都无法在原定的时限内完成。

市建局发言人在回答本报的询问时说：“发展商可能因为各种原因而决定加速或放慢项目的建筑进度，或者修改某一些还没有动工的项目完工日期。”

他指出，2008年第三季的数据再次下跌，“可能是因为发展商基于各种原因，例如高昂的建筑成本，以及谨慎的市场情绪，而延迟展开集体出售地段的重建工程。”

这种将潜在供应量挪后的做法，导致2012年和之后完工的新私宅单位飙升了75％，由第一季报告书估计的1万7352个增加至3万零307个。这虽然有助于舒缓未来三年的供应过剩问题，不过只是将问题挪后，未来五六年的楼市的潜在供应量并没有显著改善，只是由6万8140个单位减少至6万5023个单位。

即使是在1万6072个单位延后完工后，未来三年仍然是本地楼市的完工高峰期。自2001年以来，本地每年只有六七千个新私宅单位完工——2004年和2005年的楼市低谷期例外，分别有1万1799个和8697个新私宅单位完工。

第一太平戴维斯(Savills)行销与业务开发主管邱瑞荣说，未来三年虽仍是本地楼市的完工高峰期，但情况并没有一些人想象的严重。

“办公楼的情况也一样，虽然潜在供应量有300万平方英尺，但一定会有工程延后完成，所以2010年和2011年的供应过剩情况并不是那么严重。特别是预计在2011年完工的项目，只有一半已经动工，那些还没有动工的肯定还会将工程挪后。”

过去半年来，好几家外资银行的房地产报告书都预测，本地楼价将在2010年下跌三四成，其中一个主要原因就是对未来三年供应过剩情况感到担忧。

市区重建局昨天也第一次提供潜在供应的分区情况，莱坊研究部主管麦俊荣说，数据显示，大众化私宅的潜在供应量最多，达2万3678个单位（35.6％），其次是高档私宅，达2万3008个单位（34.6％）。

“数据显示，这两个领域的单位大多都会在2011年完工，但中档领域却在未来几年只有1万9736个单位完工。”

空中绿意奖 它们都绿意盎然

Source :《联合早报》October 24, 2008

坐落在诺维娜地铁站附近的纽顿轩（Newton Suites）公寓，有座本地最高的常春藤墙，青翠的攀藤植物从低层楼一路攀到第36层楼。

不仅如此，纽顿轩的另一特色是每四层楼就有一个绿意盎然的“天空廊道”（sky terrace），让住户不论居住在高层或低层，都能在绿意中俯瞰市景。

乔治街一号（One George Street）商业大厦分别在5楼、12楼、15楼和22楼建有空中花园

此外，公寓的停车场、游泳池旁也都种植了花草树木，使公寓的绿色面积比占地面积（site area）高出30％，是名副其实的绿色建筑。

出自著名建筑公司WOHA之手的纽顿轩凭其绿色环保建筑设计，成为今年首届“空中绿意奖”的四个得主之一。共有9个发展项目参与角逐。

“空中绿意奖”由国家公园局及新加坡建筑师协会（SIA）联合颁发，目的在于奖励设计杰出，有再生循环性能及社区意义的空中花园，并鼓励设计师将绿色概念融入建筑设计中。

这四个得奖的住宅与商业发展项目都有一个共同点：尽管建筑空间非常有限，但仍能在局限中打造不少绿色园地，既能美化环境，也有助防热降温。

怡丰城的3楼公共天台花园，让走累了的购物者在绿意中舒适地歇息

另一个得奖项目是位于佘街（Seah Street）的Naumi精品酒店，其建筑风格也非常绿色环保。建筑设计由Eco-id Architects操刀。

由于酒店朝西，白天较热，因此建筑师在建筑外壳装置了铁片墙，然后在铁皮下种植攀岩植物，不仅为水泥建筑增添丝丝绿意，也会为酒店制造凉意，从而节省冷气能源，非常环保。

由DP Architects及Toyo Ito设计的怡丰城也是今年的得奖者之一。它的3楼公共天台花园，让走累了的购物者在绿意中舒适地歇息。

天台的波浪形设计及流水元素和灯光效果，使怡丰城的设计别具一格，象征源源不绝的能量。

第四个获颁“空中绿意奖”的是乔治街一号（One George Street）商业大厦。负责设计工作的是DCA Architects和Skidmore, Owings & Merrill LLP建筑设计事务所。

大厦分别在5楼、12楼、15楼和22楼建有空中花园，让在建筑里工作的人，一望出窗外，就有如置身在花园里的感觉。

颁奖礼也是第二届建筑节（Archifest）系列活动之一。国家公园局园林营运署署长梁志超昨天主持颁奖仪式。

大宗房地产交易 第三季锐减七成

Source :《联合早报》October 24, 2008

在越刮越猛的信贷风暴下，今年第三季的大宗房地产交易锐减七八成，创下四年来的最低水平。

根据高力国际（Colliers International）昨天发表的报告，今年7月至9月，房地产发展商和投资者只买下总值18亿8000万元的房地产，这比一年前楼市巅峰时的购买能力猛降85％。如果与今年第一季和第二季相比，则显著下滑了超过七成。

本地的房地产投资销售金额（investment sales）在2007年第三季创下最高峰，该季成交的大宗房地产交易总值高达126亿6000万元。但在美国次贷风暴于去年8月引爆后，投资者的信心便大受冲击，今年第一季的房地产投资销售额下跌至83亿7000万元、第二季下跌至63亿1000万元。

到了今年第三季，房地产投资销售额更进一步猛坠至18亿8000万元，这是自2004年第三季以来的最低水平。

几乎没有一个房地产领域幸免，不过最明显受挫的是工业房地产领域，今年第三季只有总值1亿8802万元的房地产成交。这比今年第二季的21亿2000万元猛挫了91.1％。

不过，这主要是因为第二季的房地产投资销售市场，有裕廊集团脱售价值17亿1000万元的工业房地产在支撑。如果撇开这宗特殊的一次过交易，工业房地产的投资销售额则在第三季下跌了54％。

商业房地产的交易额也下降了87.4％，由第二季的23亿2000万元减少至第三季的2亿9371万元。今年初就已经受到冲击的私宅房地产投资销售市场，反而没有下跌得那么厉害，第三季仍有11亿6000万元的房地产成交，比第二季的18亿1000万元减少了35.5％。

房地产投资销售指的是市场上的大宗房地产交易，这包括发展地段、整栋大楼、整层楼面的转手，每一宗交易金额至少要500万元。一般来说，它是市场景气的领先指标，反映了发展商和投资者对房地产市场的中长期看法。

展望未来，高力国际认为，在雷曼兄弟、美林、AIG、美联银行（Wachovia）等金融巨头都接二连三倒下后，全球的信贷市场进一步紧缩，因此新加坡的房地产投资销售市场预料会在未来几个季度都维持淡静，只有一些小宗的房地产交易，或者一些不良资产能够顺利成交。

它认为，现有的信贷紧缩环境下，会导致超过5亿元的大宗房地产交易无法成交，反而是一些2亿元以下的房地产可能找到买家。“这是因为仍握有资金的潜在买家，例如财富主权基金、私募基金、石油产国的投资者，以及一些身家丰厚的富豪，将比较倾向于投资在较小宗的房地产交易。”

此外，由于裕廊集团计划在截至2009年3月的财政年度脱售更多的现有工厂，来鼓励私人企业参与，因此这些脱售活动也会刺激一些较小宗的房地产交易成交。

高力国际估计，一些不良资产也可能在未来几个月内开始浮现出来，这是因为金融界所受到的破坏将逐渐渗透到其他领域，冲击一些公司和投资者的财务能力。而现有的信贷紧缩情况将导致它们没有太多的财务选择，破产的风险大大增加。

高盛：中国救楼市措施能防房价大跌

Source :《联合早报》October 24, 2008

（北京讯）高盛报告显示，中国推出10项刺激经济措施，其中与房地产市场有关的措施在未来几个月内，将有利于防止房地产价格大幅度下跌。

湖北宜昌的一个住房展销会吸引了不少的买家。房地产市场占中国GDP10％，住房市场的发展方向将决定中国经济在未来18个月的走势。（法新社）

中国财政部前晚公布的拯救楼市措施，包括调降产业交易税率；金融机构对居民首次购买普通自住房和改善型普通自住房提供贷款，其贷款利率的下限可扩大为贷款基准利率的0.7倍，最低首付款比例调整为20%；加快廉租住房建设。

高盛高华证券昨日发布的分析报告指出，新的住房抵押贷款规定不仅较预期更早发布，而且条件也较预期来的优厚与进取，相信相关措施将可以防止房地产价格急速下滑的同时，消除第二套房产贷款限制措施对市场所产生的不利影响。

据中国房地产界人士的分析，此次新政出台，很大程度上宣告了去年出台“二套房贷政策”寿终正寝。新政中的“改善型普通自住房”，可理解为二次置业，这就等于说是“二套房贷”退出历史舞台。如果是政策条文的制定者有意避免开“二套房贷”，那么，或许就在一定程度上为各地方政府在接下来制定补充细则时真正摒弃 “二套房贷”打开了一扇门。

无论如何，高盛高华的报告说，“二套房贷”的负面影响减弱，将有助于中国房地产类股的反弹。但是，这一类股的股价能否出现大幅回弹，则须视未来宏观环境和房地产市场复苏的力道而定。

另据法新社报道，摩根大通分析师龚方雄认为，此次的拯救楼市措施，显示出中国政府在抗衡金融海啸上的超强能力。

他说，新措施的宣布是一大利好消息，该行动较预期来得更快，因为中国第三季度经济增幅较预期糟，而且经济放缓的幅度也较中国政府所预期的大。

即便如此，龚方雄在其分析简讯中说，中国拥有大量的外汇储备和稳定的汇率，是目前世界上在抵御环球金融危机方面，最具备灵活性的国家。

其他分析师也同意这一看法，指出中国扶持占国内生产总值10％的房市，是很关键性的做法。

瑞士信贷分析师陶冬在其分析中指出，住房市场的发展方向将决定中国经济在未来18个月的走势。

“新措施反映中国政府对经济增长风险大担心程度正在升高。”