Thursday, October 2, 2008

S'pore Office Rentals To Soften In Early 2009: CBRE

Source : The Business Times, October 2, 2008

Singapore office rentals will soften in early 2009, a year sooner than expected, after rents plateaued and vacancies rose in the third quarter of 2008 amid global financial turmoil, CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) said on Thursday.

CBRE said vacancies for prime office space rose to 1.2 per cent in the July-September period, up from 0.6 per cent earlier this year

'We had earlier anticipated rents would only soften beyond 2010. With the events of the past few weeks, we believe that the correction has been fast-forwarded to early 2009,' the property consultancy said in a report.

CBRE said vacancies for prime office space rose to 1.2 per cent in the July-September period, up from 0.6 per cent earlier this year, while rentals were static at $16.10-$18.80 (US$11.22-US$13.10) per square foot per month compared to the first half of 2008.

Property prices and rents in Asia's financial centres of Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo are set to fall as banks scale back hiring and investments in the global financial turmoil.

The downturn could hit Singapore's top office landlords such as City Developments, CapitaCommercial Trust and Suntec Reit. -- REUTERS


CBRE news release

S'pore Private Home Prices Fall 1.8% In Q3

Source : The Business Times, October 2, 2008

Singapore private residential prices fell 1.8 per cent between July and September, snapping four straight years of growth as concerns over the global financial turmoil caused home sales to slump.

Private home sales in Singapore plummeted 81 per cent in August from a year ago, to the lowest level since March

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said early estimates showed the price index for private residential properties dropped to 174.3 points for the three months ended September from 177.5 in the previous three-month period.

This is the first decline in the index since the first quarter of 2004.

Private home sales in Singapore plummeted 81 per cent in August from a year ago, to the lowest level since March as a combination of global financial turmoil and the traditionally 'unlucky' Hungry Ghost month spooked buyers.

Poor demand and a looming housing glut are threatening to plunge the property market into a prolonged downturn, which could deal a blow to Singapore's top developers such as CapitaLand, CityDev and Keppel Land.

The advance estimates are compiled from transaction prices lodged during the first 10 weeks of the quarter as well as data from new apartments that have been booked. The URA will release the official price index in four weeks. -- REUTERS

Property Transactions With Contract Dates Between Sept 15th - 20th, 2008

Home Prices In 20 US Cities Fall At Record Pace In July

Source : The Business Times, October 2, 2008

More contraction to come should banks stiffen lending rules in months ahead

(WASHINGTON) House prices in 20 US cities declined in July at the fastest pace on record, signalling the worst housing recession in a generation had yet to trough even before last month's credit crisis.

Looking for buyers: US homebuilders, hit by at least US$19 billion in losses since 2006, will ask lawmakers to pass a US$15,000 tax credit for all homebuyers

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index released on Tuesday dropped 16.3 per cent from a year earlier, more than forecast, after a 15.9 per cent decline in June. The gauge has fallen every month since January last year, and year-over-year records began in 2001.

The US housing slump is at the centre of the meltdown in financial markets as declining demand pushes down property values and causes foreclosures to mount. Banks will probably stiffen lending rules even more in the coming months to limit losses, indicating that residential real estate will keep contracting and consumer spending will continue to falter.

'The fact that house prices quickened their slide before the worst point in credit markets hit this month does not bode well,' said Derek Holt, an economist at Scotia Capital Inc in Toronto.

Home prices decreased 0.9 per cent in July from the prior month after declining 0.5 per cent in June, the report showed. The figures are not adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to-month.

Prices dropped in 13 cities month-over-month, compared with 11 in June. Las Vegas saw values fall 2.8 per cent in July, the largest decline.

Economists forecast that the index would fall 16 per cent from a year earlier, according to the median of 23 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 14.5 per cent to 16.5 per cent.

Compared with a year earlier, all 20 areas showed a decrease in prices in July, led by a 30 per cent drop in Las Vegas and a 29 per cent decline in Phoenix.

'While some cities did show some marginal improvement over last month's data, there is still very little evidence of any particular region experiencing an absolute turnaround,' David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement.

Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, and Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, created the home-price index based on research from the 1980s.

Sales of previously-owned homes fell 2.2 per cent in August from the prior month and were 32 per cent below their historic high reached in September 2005.

Declining home construction has subtracted from growth since the first quarter of 2006, pushing the economy to the brink of a downturn.

US homebuilders, buffeted by at least US$19 billion in losses since 2006, will ask lawmakers to pass a US$15,000 tax credit for all homebuyers, replacing a US$7,500 incentive enacted earlier this year that they contend failed to stimulate demand.

'Our members are really hurting,' Jerry Howard, the chief executive officer of the National Association of Home Builders, said in an interview on Monday. 'The tax credit passed in July seems to have failed to have sparked interest.'

S'pore Office Rentals To Soften

Source : Reuters, Thu, Oct 02, 2008





SINGAPORE office rentals will soften in early 2009, a year sooner than expected, after rents plateaued and vacancies rose in the third quarter of 2008 amid global financial turmoil, CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) said on Thursday.

'We had earlier anticipated rents would only soften beyond 2010. With the events of the past few weeks, we believe that the correction has been fast-forwarded to early 2009,' the property consultancy said in a report.

CBRE said vacancies for prime office space rose to 1.2 per cent in the July-September period, up from 0.6 per cent earlier this year, while rentals were static at S$16.10-S$18.80 per square foot per month compared to the first half of 2008.

Property prices and rents in Asia's financial centres of Hong Kong, Singapore and Tokyo are set to fall as banks scale back hiring and investments in the global financial turmoil.

The downturn could hit Singapore's top office landlords such as City Developments, CapitaCommercial Trust and Suntec REIT.

Home Prices Fall After 4yrs

Source : The Straits Times, Oct 2, 2008

HDB resale flat prices still rising but at a slower pace.

PRIVATE home prices in Singapore fell between July and September - the first time in over four years and after almost a year of deadlock between buyers and sellers in which home sales all but dried up.

For the first time since 2006, the URA did not highlight the number of upcoming homes in the flash estimates, after concerns that the large headline supply figures would further dampen already gloomy sentiment. -- ST PHOTO: STEVEN LIM

Official estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Thursday showed that overall prices of private residential properties slided 1.8 per cent in the third quarter, led by homes in the central region, which fell by about 2 per cent.

Suburban home prices, however, held steady with a marginal 0.1 per cent rise.

HDB resale flat prices are also still going strong, but at a slower pace. They rose 4.2 per cent in the third quarter, on top of a 4.5 per cent increase in the second quarter.

So far this year, private home prices have risen 2 per cent, while HDB resale prices have increased 13 per cent.

For the first time since 2006, the URA did not highlight the number of upcoming homes in the flash estimates, after concerns that the large headline supply figures would further dampen already gloomy sentiment.

Instead, the agency said housing supply statistics will be released along with the full set of third-quarter property data at the end of October.

The URA said early estimates showed the price index for private residential properties dropped to 174.3 points from 177.5 in the previous three-month period.

This is the first decline in the index since the first quarter of 2004, amid concerns over the global financial turmoil that has caused home sales to slump.

Private home sales in Singapore plummeted 81 per cent in August from a year ago, to the lowest level since March as a combination of global financial turmoil and the traditionally 'unlucky' Hungry Ghost month spooked buyers.

Poor demand and a looming housing glut are threatening to plunge the property market into a prolonged downturn, which could deal a blow to Singapore's top developers such as CapitaLand, CityDev and Keppel Land.

The advance estimates are compiled from transaction prices lodged during the first 10 weeks of the quarter as well as data from new apartments that have been booked.

The URA will release the official price index in four weeks.

4th Foreign School Opens

Source : The Straits Times, Oct 2, 2008

SINGAPORE'S latest international school One World International was officially open on Thursday.

The school conducts early childhood and primary classes, has a capacity of 450 pupils and will take in secondary level pupils by next year. -- ST PHOTO: LIM WUI LIANG

The school, at Upper Changi Road East, conducts early childhood and primary classes. It has a capacity of 450 pupils and will take in secondary level pupils by next year.

It is the 44th foreign-system school to open here.

Three pupils have enrolled in the school since it opened its doors in early Sept. Another 16 will start classes by end of the year.

Principal Noel Hurley said response from prospective parents has been positive and he is confident of filling up 100 to 150 places by early next year.

The school gets six to seven enquiries every day, he added.

Started by Mumbai-based businessman Nishant Garodia, the school is housed on the premises of the former Siglap-Changi Community Centre.

Mr Nishant said converting the centre into the school instead of building from scratch allowed construction to be completed in just 12 weeks. About $2 million was spent to retrofit the campus to provide facilities such as 16 air-conditioned classrooms, a multi-purpose hall and a library.

Six-year-old pupil Tara Eshwar, who arrived from New Zealand three weeks ago, said, 'I like the school very much. We get to sing songs and play games. I am happy that I will be making many new friends.'

The school was declared open by Economic Development Board International Director Liang Ting Wee on Thursday.

Greener Building Underway

Source : The Straits Times, Oct 2, 2008

THE Building and Construction Authority has awarded the main contract worth $10.47 million for the construction of Singapore's first Zero Energy Building (ZEB) at the BCA Academy.

The contract went to ACP Construction Pte Ltd, a local general construction firm, which has been building mainly high-tech industrial complexes in the last five years.

They were also involved in two Green Mark projects in Depot Road and Neuros Biopolis Phase 2 in One North.

BCA Academy will retrofit an existing building at its Braddell Road premises into a Zero-Energy Building.

It has awarded another tender for the building's solar panel to Singapore firm Grenzone for $1.7 million.

The ZEB is part of BCA's plan to raise awareness on sustainability in the built environment and is BCA's flagship R&D project under its Green Building Masterplan. This project integrates various

Green Building Technologies in a single building to demonstrate how it can be retrofitted to be energy-efficient.

When completed in late 2009, the ZEB will house green classrooms and a library, as well as a visitor centre that can be used for training purposes. The retrofitted building will also function as a test-bedding centre for Green Building Technologies, to allow fresh ideas to be tested and experienced before wider adoption.

If the results of the test-bedding of these technologies are positive, some of these technologies can potentially be adopted in other buildings.

Many advanced countries such as Germany, Netherlands, UK and the US have set very ambitious targets to achieve zero energy or carbon neutral buildings as they realise that green buildings are an important solution in addressing the global challenges of climate change and energy security.

Given that buildings once completed will consume a lot of energy over their lifetime, BCA said it is critical that new buildings get it right from the beginning.

The MRT Guide To Home Prices

Source : The Straits Times, Oct 2, 2008

Buyers increasingly keen on units near stations, which can command up to a 20% premium

HOME seeker Wan Kum Wai is hunting for a flat that is well-located - specifically, within walking distance of an MRT station.

For this convenience, the multimedia designer and his wife Jessie are willing to pay 10 to 20 per cent more than they would for a home a few bus stops away from a station.
















'We don't drive, and the cost of living is running high,' he said. 'We don't mind paying more because we think this will help us save on transportation costs and other expenses in the long run.'

In an era of sky-high petrol prices, multiplying Electronic Road Pricing gantries and increasing worries over environmental degradation, the all-important 'location, location, location' element of a home purchase has taken on a new slant.

While the classic prime districts of 9, 10, 11 are still sought after, home buyers are also increasingly keen on properties near MRT stations.

Apart from non-drivers, MRT-accessible homes also attract buyers with school-going children as well as investors who want to rent the units to expatriates, many of whom rely heavily on public transport, say property agents.

Ms Mylene Kwan, a PropNex agent who is helping Mr Wan find a home, said some of her clients have only one priority: to be near an MRT station.

'Many of them don't drive, so it's very important to these buyers,' she said.

But such proximity comes at a price.

Ms Kwan estimated that HDB flats with this privilege have their valuations alone jacked up by at least $20,000 or $30,000, and buyers often pay even more in cash on top of that.

The most popular HDB flats near MRT stations are those close to town, such as in the Tiong Bahru, Redhill and Queenstown areas, she said.

But even in the suburbs, a nearby station can give a big boost to prices.

In Woodlands, owners of flats near the MRT station are asking $40,000 to $50,000 above valuation just because of the location, said Ms Rohaizah Ramjan, another PropNex agent.

Whenever these flats come on the market, they get snapped up within two or three weeks, she added. For 'normal ones' further from the station, it can take a few months for a sale to be closed.

'Flats near MRT stations are harder to come by, because owners are comfortable there and don't want to sell,' she said. 'So if a buyer has the budget and they see a well-located flat for sale, they just grab.'

The same principle applies to private property. Condominiums near MRT stations can command a premium of up to 20 per cent over similar units a bit further away, said Mr Eric Cheng, executive director of HSR Property Group.

The price difference stems partly from the convenience of these homes, but is also due to their limited supply, he added.

'If you look at the whole map of Singapore, I dare say only about half the MRT stations have condos right next door. Of course, they command a premium, a good 10 to 20 per cent above neighbouring properties 10 minutes' walk away.'

At Tiong Bahru MRT station, for instance, new condos that are at the doorstep of the station - such as Twin Regency and Regency Heights in Kim Tian Road - fetch $1,240 per sq ft (psf) on average.

About five to 10 minutes away, prices average $1,072 psf, or about 15 per cent less, at the equally new The Regency at Tiong Bahru on Chay Yan Street.

'Most of these units are rarely on the market,' said Mr Cheng. 'Even if the owners are not staying in them, they might not want to sell because they can get very high rental returns.'

Still, not all MRT stations are equal. Property values can differ widely between two consecutive stops, such as in the case of Novena and Toa Payoh, where condos around the former are almost double the price of those around the latter, according to an extensive analysis done by property firm Savills Singapore.

Even stations within a few kilometres of each other can see significantly different prices.

Savills' data showed that condos around the Dhoby Ghaut station, for instance, fetched an average of around $1,600 psf in the first six months of the year. Less than 2km away, condos near the Little India station cost only two-thirds that on average, or $1,071 psf.

'Apart from the proximity to an MRT station, buyers do look at other factors,' said Mr Ku Swee Yong, Savills' director of marketing and business development.

'Equally important is the quality, age and tenure of the project and its facilities, how much the unit can fetch in rentals and what amenities are nearby.'

Mr Ku cited Lavender and Farrer Park MRT stations, separated by just 1.5km in distance but about $200 psf in price.

At Lavender, well-equipped condos such as Citylights boosted prices in the vicinity to an average of $1,104 psf in the first six months of the year. But Farrer Park is surrounded by several smaller condos with minimal facilities, so rents and prices tend to be lower, said Mr Ku.


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'If you look at the whole map of Singapore, I dare say only about half the MRT stations have condos right next door. Of course, they command a premium, a good 10 to 20 per cent above neighbouring properties 10 minutes' walk away.'

Mr Eric Cheng, executive director of HSR Property Group

New Business Park Space Looms Over CBD

Source : The Business Times, October 2, 2008

New supply over next 5 years projected at about 7.8m sq ft: CBRE

With the Singapore market still digesting the fact that there is about 10.2 million sq ft of office space in the pipeline, news that there is also substantial business park space coming is not likely to go down well.

According to CB Richard Ellis, projected new supply of business park space over the next five years is about 7.8 million sq ft. This includes developments like The Icon@International Business Park, Solaris, Mapletree Business City, and Centric Singapore.

CBRE also believes 67 per cent of this has already been pre-let.

By comparison, only about 25 per cent of future office supply is thought to be pre-let.

While certain conditions apply before anyone can move into a business park space, it has become increasingly clear that businesses themselves have no qualms about moving to the outskirts of the city. Already, Changi Business Park has attracted MNCs like Citigroup, Standard Chartered Bank and Credit Suisse.

CBRE executive director (office services) Moray Armstrong added that many new leases in business parks 'are in motion', boosted by the availability of quality business parks.

'The business parks have evidently been the sweet spot for many occupiers over the past 12 months,' he added.

And business parks, which Mr Moray describes as a 'hybrid' of traditional office space and high-tech industrial space, is set to evolve even more.

While Changi Business Park is characterised by individual developable land plots available for end users or developers to construct build-to-suit corporate buildings, Mr Armstrong reveals that the upcoming 1.7 million sq ft Mapletree Business City in the Alexandra vicinity will be a more office-like integrated precinct including retail space under single ownership. It is also just minutes from the CBD.

And the concept is proving to be popular as over 400,000 sq ft of pre-lease deals have already been done ahead of completion in H2 2010.

Demand for business park space is likely to grow at the expense of standard office space. Business park rents, at an average $3.15 psf per month in Q2 2008, are considerably lower than average prime rents of $16.10 psf per month.

But while Mr Armstrong believes that business parks will certainly compete to an extent and will slightly dilute overall office demand, he said: 'Nonetheless, we do not expect this to impact the office sector significantly.'

He added: 'There is far less speculative business park development as a rule. Most projects that are being built are pre-let or built-to-suit.'

According to CBRE's analysis, Grade A office space vacancy remained tight in Q2 '08 at 0.6 per cent. However, vacancy rates for the CBD fringe rose significantly from 4.6 to 7 per cent.

For the same period, vacancy rates for decentralised areas dipped to 1.6 per cent from 3 per cent. CBRE noted there was 'heightened interest' in the Alexandra/Harbourfront micromarket.

Interestingly, new supply could also have a diluting effect on the business park space segment as well. JTC's Q2 '08 quarterly facilities report reveals that its occupancy level for its business park space declined marginally by 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 94.3 per cent. This was partly attributed to new supply from Fusionopolis which saw gross allocation of about 450,000 sq ft of space.

UBS Investment Research estimates that financial firms occupy 20 per cent of CBD offices and 30-50 per cent of the prime buildings within it.

UBS does not expect major job losses here from the fallout of the US financial crisis. Losses, if any, will only occur in 2009. Still, it said that if even between 1.5-6 per cent of the estimated 156,900 financial sector jobs are lost, it could equate to a drop in demand in office space of between 243,000 and 971,000 sq ft.

Write-Downs Could See Property Stocks Slip Further

Source : The Business Times, October 2, 2008

Larger developers saw 31-50% stock price falls in 2001, says Credit Suisse

THE outlook for developers here could get worse, with write-downs on asset values possible, says Credit Suisse.

Projects: CapitaLand could write down on Farrer Court (left), while Tianjin eco-city (next) is reminiscent of Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park

In a report, its research analyst Tricia Song says CapitaLand, for one, could write down as much as $200 million on its Farrer Court and Char Yong Gardens projects alone.

This is based on an estimated breakeven figure of $1,429 psf and an estimated average selling price of $1,280 psf for Farrer Court project. For Char Yong Gardens, the estimated breakeven figure is $2,564 psf and the estimated average selling price $1,960 psf.

In its analysis, Credit Suisse says Keppel Land and Allgreen could at worst face respective gearing of 1.7 and 1.5, assuming a prolonged downturn with major outgoings and no cash inflows. In June, Keppel Land's gearing was 0.54 and Allgreen's was 0.45.

A possible write-down factor for Keppel Land is its exposure to the troubled Vietnam market, where it has nine residential projects and one major township.

Credit Suisse says Tianjin eco-city, in which Keppel Land may take a stake, is reminiscent of Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park, which resulted in huge write-offs in the 1990s.

Noting that CapitaLand and Keppel Land are now trading around 1.2 times price-to-book value (P/B) and City Developments (CDL) is trading at 1.7-times P/B, Credit Suisse reckons CDL should not trade below book. It bases this assessment on CDL's conservative accounting policy of using historic costs for investment assets and limited write-downs on its residential landbank. But it still expects CDL's premium to narrow.

Unlike other developers, CDL does not account for asset revaluations directly in its profit & loss statement.

Write-downs signal developers' acceptance of price falls. Credit Suisse says that in 1998 and 2001, the larger developers suffered respective stock price falls of 66-79 per cent and 31-50 per cent.

CapitaLand and Keppel Land wrote down between $900 million and $2.1 billion in 1998, and between $700 million and $900 million in 2001. Credit Suisse says they could 'do so again due to aggressive expansions and acquisitions, and substantial revaluation gains in recent years'.

Perhaps more significantly, it reckons small-cap developers could put an added drag on the property market. It notes that as gearing rose to 52 per cent for big-cap developers by Q2 2008, gearing for smaller developers rose to 242 per cent.

'This reinforces our belief that small developers will drive the price cuts in the near future in the primary markets, especially in the prime and mid-high end, as some of them have acquired prime sites at peak prices,' it says.

In its analysis, small-cap developers include Aspial, Koh Brothers, Heeton, Hiap Hoe, Ho Bee, Roxy, SC Global, Sim Lian, Sing Holdings, Soilbuild and Tee International.

US Headed For 'Protracted Downturn'

Source : The Straits Times, Oct 2, 2008

THE United States economy is likely to face an extended slowdown, say two hedge fund experts.

Mr John Rowsell, chief executive of US-based Glenwood, noted that the credit crisis differs from previous market shocks, such as the bear market following the bursting of the dot.com bubble in 2000, because it is 'more protracted'.

The question now is whether the downturn will be U-shaped or a more drawn-out L-shape, said Mr Rowsell, who is here to visit clients.

Singapore-based Timothy Peach, head of sales for Man Investments, a global alternative investments manager, agreed: 'We could well be in an L-shaped recession.'

But he noted that the recovery may also take place sooner than in the case of Japan, as the US government has 'taken action much more quickly - one year into the crisis'.

Japan took five years to act and the downturn lasted about a decade.

Man Investments owns Glenwood, which manages US$7.4 billion (S$10.6 billion) of assets in funds of hedge funds.

Mr Rowsell said he expects to see a 'stabilisation of risk in the market' as excess leverage - which caused some of the problems - is removed from the system.

Leverage is likely to be 'reduced dramatically' at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley after they lower their credit levels drastically - in line with regulations after converting from investment banks to commercial ones. But it will still take Washington's US$700 billion bailout plan to restore stability, he said.

The volatile situation is not being helped by hedge funds reportedly grappling with an outflow of investor funds. Mr Rowsell noted that there is likely to be a 'consolidation in the hedge fund industry' as investors opt to put their funds with large funds that have stronger balance sheets, while smaller, marginal players will be forced to exit.

Responding to a question about Asian investors' interest in Man Investments' funds, Mr Peach noted that the group has continued to see a 'high level of interest', apart from the past month, when investors have been 'frozen like rabbits in the headlights'.

High net worth individuals are now 'prepared to pay a premium for capital protection', so Man Investments has seen 'strong inflows' into those products, he added.