Private home prices also up smartly; govt may make more sites available
The property price boom seen in the past two years has filtered down to the heartlands. The Housing & Development Board's Q3 2007 flash estimate for its resale flat price index was 6.5 per cent higher than in the preceding three months. This is the biggest quarter-on-quarter jump in the index since Q2 1999, when it rose 8.1 per cent.
Market watchers say the key factor driving the increase this time around is the army of en bloc sellers downgrading for their replacement property.
Meanwhile, the party continues in the private housing market. The Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) flash estimate shows that the official price index for private homes jumped 8 per cent in Q3 over the previous quarter, after rising 8.3 per cent in Q2. To ensure that prices do not run ahead because of a shortage of supply, the URA indicated that more sites could be made available through the Government Land Sales programme.
For now, the gains appear pretty evenly spread across regions. The URA said its price index for non-landed private homes in the Core Central Region - which includes the prime districts, Downtown Core and Sentosa - increased 8.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q3, followed by an 8.1 per cent rise for Outside Central Region, which covers suburban mass-market locations like Woodlands, Yishun and Jurong, and 7.7 per cent for Rest of Central Region, including places like Bukit Merah, Toa Payoh and Katong.
The big price disparity among the three areas at the beginning of the year is clearly dissipating, notes PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail. DTZ Debenham Tie Leung executive director Ong Choon Fah said yesterday's official property data is 'not such a bad thing. Everybody should feel a little richer'. CB Richard Ellis executive director Li Hiaw Ho says the URA's Q3 flash estimate shows that 'confidence in the residential market was unshaken despite periods of volatility in global stock markets caused by the sub-prime mortgage problems'.
'While it's not surprising that the high-end market continued to lead the way as more and more projects were marketed at above $3,000 psf, it was a big step made by several suburban projects that were launched at $850-1,000 psf,' he added.
The URA's flash estimate for its Q3 overall private home price index reflects a 22.6 per cent gain in the first nine months of this year, since Q4 2006.
Mr Li reckons the gain for the whole of this year may come in at 25 to 30 per cent. The uptrend will continue as there are more high-end projects to be rolled out in Q4, including Hilltops, Ritz-Carlton Residences, Grange Infinite, Phase 2 of Marina Bay Financial Centre and projects on Sentosa Cove, he noted.
Mrs Ong notes that other factors driving private home prices include still-strong liquidity, the trend of tenants deciding to become home owners, and the appeal of buying apartments for investment, given the tight rental market.
As for the HDB resale price index, Mr Ismail predicts the full-year increase will reach 15 per cent, considering that the increase in the first nine months alone amounted to 11 per cent. ERA assistant vice-president Eugene Lim forecasts an increase of 13 to 16 per cent for the whole of this year. He laments the unrealistic prices sought by many owners who are still riding on the euphoria created by record prices achieved for some five-room resale flats in the Bukit Merah area. HDB homebuyers are beginning to show some resistance and this could translate into lower resale volumes later down the road.
Mr Ismail estimates that transacted prices of HDB resale flats in Q3 reflect premiums over valuations ranging from $10,000 to $50,000. 'A year ago, for the smaller three and four-room flats, the premium could have been $10,000-$15,000, while for bigger flats in outlying areas, many were not fetching any premium over valuation at all,' he added. He reckons that for the next year, HDB's resale flat price index could go up 10-12 per cent. Mr Ismail does not expect HDB resale flat prices to run away as they did in 1996, when the index rose 34.3 per cent, as the authorities will step up supply quickly to prevent public housing prices from becoming unaffordable.
HDB said it will continue to monitor the market closely to ensure 'an adequate and affordable supply of flats'. It will be increasing its supply of new flats with plans to offer about 4,500 units under the Built-To-Order system over the next six months, after offering about 2,700 BTO flats from January to September. In addition, HDB plans to release three new sites under the Design, Build and Sell scheme that can generate about 1,500 HDB flats in central and eastern Singapore in the next half year.
As for the private housing market, the URA also gave a clear signal yesterday on its intention for the Government Land Sales programme for H1 2008, which it is currently reviewing. 'The government will make available more sites for private residential development through the GLS programme next year if the demand continues to remain strong,' it said.
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