Gauge Of US Economy Up, Near-Term Recession Unlikely: Research Group

Source : The Business Times, September 28, 2007

NEW YORK - A weekly gauge of future US economic growth edged up in the latest week on lower jobless claims and higher stock prices, with its annualised growth higher and indicating little likelihood of a near-term recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was 141.1 in the week ended Sept 21 from an upwardly revised 140.7 in the prior period. The upturn was partly offset by lower housing activity.

The annualised growth rate in the index rose to 1.0 per cent from 0.5 per cent in the prior week, upwardly revised from 0.4 per cent.

'Following its August plunge, WLI growth has exhibited a pattern of stabilisation since early September that, if sustained, would make a recession quite unlikely in the near term,' said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI. -- REUTERS