SOME Singaporeans see longevity insurance as a gamble, or even a 'sure lose' investment: Die before 85 and you lose the money. But to the Government, it's the best bet for those who live to a ripe old age.
Who will win?
No one can say with certainty because no one knows how long he or she will live.
Still, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is putting his money on Singaporeans living to a ripe old age.
He laid the cards on the table at a dialogue on the CPF reforms with grassroots leaders yesterday. Five other ministers were also there.
The compulsory annuity scheme - the bugbear of many Singaporeans when it comes to the CPF changes - dominated the two-hour exchange at the Grassroots Club.
PM Lee said to the 500-strong audience: 'If I were going to bet, I would bet that most of you will reach 85, or at least half.
'As Lim Swee Say says, 'Bao ying (sure win)!' he quipped, quoting the Minister in the Prime Minister's Office and NTUC secretary-general.
PM Lee added: 'If you look at the obituary pages of The Straits Times and Lianhe Zaobao, you read, 'mo mo mo mo gao ling jiu shi' (so and so is 90). So many 90-year-olds... and sometimes 100 over.
'And once in a while, you have a story of somebody living to 102 or 103 and was fit and walking until a few weeks before he or she died.'
TAKING NO CHANCES
So the Government is not taking any chances, he said.
'If everybody knew he has a good chance of living to 85, I think we don't have to do anything. They will buy their own longevity insurance,' PM Lee said.
'But it is because many people don't realise and they think there's no need, that's why we worry for them.'
Referring to the annuity, one grassroot leader said a 'bo gei (toothless)' person at 85 can't spend much.
He also suggested that elderly Singaporeans be given their CPF savings early so they can 'have a good time at the IR (integrated resort)'.
If they lose, their children will take care of them, he reasoned. If not, the Government can help them.
An amused PM Lee replied: 'This is better than going to the IR. If they win, they will 'tan tio' (benefit). If they lose, their children will take care of them. If they have no children, the Government is there. Bao jia (win-win).'
Of course, PM Lee was joking, and he added: 'Bao si (sure die)... 'Bo gei', you cannot enjoy, but 'bo gei, bo lui' (no teeth, no money) is worse.'
Mr Lim Swee Say even gazed into the crystal ball - in response to a grassroots leader's remark that she had a 'feeling' most people won't live till 85 since they get 'all kinds of illnesses' even at the age of 40.
Mr Lim said: 'Many of us don't know how long we'll live or when we'll go... But I'm a very good fortune-teller.'
Pointing to the audience, he said: 'Assuming everyone of you here is 62 today... I can tell you for sure half of you will die before 85 and half will live beyond 85... (What I can't tell you) is whether it is this half or that half.'
He added: 'In every row, there're 14 of you... two of you will live until 95. I don't know which two. And in every two rows... one will live beyond 100.'
His remarks drew laughter, but Mr Lim wasn't joking. He said he was trying to show how serious the greying problem can become.
And he was not just taking a wild stab in the dark.
The Department of Statistics reported that one in two Singaporeans alive at 62 now will live beyond 85; one in seven will live to 95; and one in 20 will live to 100.
NOT GAMBLING
But while PM Lee and Mr Lim are willing to bet on Singaporeans living longer, the Government isn't about to gamble with the people's hard-earned CPF savings.
A few MPs have asked in Parliament if it could give CPF members better returns from the gains it made from investing their money.
PM Lee said: 'If you want more, you have to take risks. I think for Singaporeans who don't have a lot of money in their CPF, it's wiser we don't make them take risks...
'GIC (Government Investment Corporation) invests long-term... The stock market goes up and down... In the last few months, the market went down and I'm sure the GIC portfolio would also have gone down... I would have a riot in Singapore.'
It's a gamble. And Singaporeans are not too good at gambling, if you go by their CPF investments.
PM Lee noted that, between 1993 and 2004, nearly three out of every four people who invested under the CPF Investment Scheme ended up worse off than if they had just parked their money in their CPF accounts. So, it's still best to stick to the risk-free system, he said.
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