In a speech he made when visiting the operations control centre of the Kallang-Paya Lebar Expressway on Tuesday, Transport Minister Raymond Lim explained why electronic road pricing (ERP) is a necessary and effective tool for reducing road congestion.
WHY ERP?: Of all the different measures to deal with congestion, ERP is the only one that deals directly with the problem by requiring individuals to take into account the costs of congestion caused by their driving to others. -- ST FILE PHOTO: CHEW SENG KIMTHE KPE and the many other roads and expressways the Government has invested in over the years are part of our continuing efforts to build a first- class road network for Singaporeans. The KPE will complement the CTE and the BKE in providing rapid north-south travel, and will add to the extensive network of expressways linking every part of Singapore.
We have also continually upgraded and expanded our roads. For example, we recently upgraded Telok Blangah Road and Pasir Panjang Road into a semi-expressway, added an additional lane to the northbound CTE and the ECP and upgraded the AYE and Keppel Road Interchange.
In the last 10 years, we spent some $3.4 billion on roads, and we will continue to invest more in the future. Recently, I announced that we will be building a new expressway, the Marina Coastal Expressway (MCE), the 10th in Singapore, costing $2.5 billion. The 5km-long MCE will provide an additional high-speed access to the Marina Bay area.
While we will continue to build new roads and expressways, the constraints that we face in land-scarce Singapore will become more acute. Already, some 12 per cent of our land is taken up by roads, comparable to that used for housing and industry. Our limited land resources have to be shared with other critical uses such as building homes for our people, industries to drive our economy and schools for our children.
With all these competing demands, future major roads will likely have to be built underground like the KPE. But underground roads cost a lot more to build and maintain. For example, the KPE and the SLE are both 12km long. But the KPE, which is largely underground, costs $1.7 billion or over 10 times more than the SLE to build. The operating and maintenance cost of the KPE is 30 times more than that of a surface road. With scarcity of land and road building costs going up, LTA expects road growth to trend down from 1 per cent a year in the last 15 years to about half that rate over the next 10 to 15 years.
Continual investment in public transport infrastructure
THUS, we must ensure that our limited road space is well utilised. To do this, we need a holistic package of measures that include not just a good road network but also integrated land use and transport planning, a good public transport system and measures to limit the number and use of cars on our roads.
Developing a good public transport system is a top priority as it serves the vast majority of Singaporeans. That is why the Government has and will continue to invest heavily in our public transport infrastructure. The Government has already spent over $13 billion to build up our existing rail network of 138km. Another $20 billion has been committed to expand the density and coverage of the MRT by more than 50 per cent to 215km. Commuters can look forward to the completion of the Boon Lay Extension in 2009, the Circle Line from 2010 and, come 2013, start taking the Downtown Line to Marina Bay.
Each new rail line will add to the connectivity and attractiveness of our MRT network, shortening journey times and bringing commuting convenience to Singaporeans. For instance, a young couple living in Bukit Panjang visiting their parents in Bishan can take the DTL and transfer to the Circle Line at Botanic Gardens station. The trip would take 40 minutes, a saving of 15 minutes compared to the current available option of taking two buses, with a transfer at Dunearn Road. Similarly, this same couple, if they work in the new Marina Bay Financial Centre, will be able to take the DTL and get to work in 45 minutes, almost as fast as by car during the morning rush hour, maybe even faster than driving should there be traffic jams.
We are also investing in bus service improvements as our rail network can never reach all parts of Singapore and many commuters will still depend on buses for all or part of their journey.
One key initiative is to give buses greater priority on the roads, to reduce their travel time and improve their reliability. We extended the bus lane operating hours and expanded the full-day bus lane scheme to more roads in April this year.
The Public Transport Council has also tightened the Quality of Service (QoS) standards to increase the frequency of buses during the peak hours. In two years' time, bus operators must have at least 80 per cent of their bus services operating at 10-minute headways, down from the current 15 minutes. This should translate to shorter waiting times and less crowded buses for commuters during the peak hours.
To provide commuters with more choices, there will be more premium bus services that provide more comfortable journeys and faster travelling times. Since the PTC revised the premium bus service scheme earlier this year, some 20 such services have been launched. Residents in Ang Mo Kio, Clementi, Bedok, Simei, Jurong, Pasir Ris and Toa Payoh now have more choices to take the MRT, trunk buses or premium buses to the CBD in the morning.
We also aim to ensure a more seamless transfer between the rail and bus modes, and help bus passengers plan their journeys and manage their time better. LTA has started a trial to provide commuters with real-time bus arrival information, and installing Key Bus Services Maps at bus stops around Orchard Road.
But a good public transport system in itself will not ensure that our roads are free-flowing. There will always be people who choose to drive because of individual circumstances or personal preference. Without an effective traffic management system, our roads will still be congested.
For example, Tokyo has a first-class public transport system but the expressways are still very congested and it takes on average 2 hours to drive into the city during the morning peak hours.
Similarly, Seoul has a good public transport system but it suffers terrible traffic jams during the rush hours. Singapore must avoid this outcome.
If road usage is not priced, our roads will be overused, resulting in congestion. As you know from your own experience, when anything that is desirable and limited in supply is given free of charge, demand will exceed supply. If FA Cup final tickets were free, the number of people who want them will be greater than the seats available. If you do not control entry, there will be people who may well be crowding onto the pitch itself, ruining the event for everyone.
Similarly, many people want to use expressways such as the CTE during the peak periods, but roads have a fixed capacity. When the road is free, people will continue to use the road until traffic during peak hours slows to a crawl.
This is why, in addition to the various measures that we pursue, such as road building and a better public transport system, we also need ERP or congestion charging. Of all the different measures to deal with congestion, ERP is the only one that deals directly with the problem by requiring individuals to take into account the costs of congestion caused by their driving to others.
Many more cities are coming to the same conclusion after trying different approaches. I met Jay Walder, who used to be a managing director of transport for London last year. He told me that, 30 years ago, London and Singapore took different approaches to dealing with congestion in the city. While Singapore went for congestion charging by introducing the Area Licensing Scheme (ALS) in the central business district, London decided to build more roads such as the M25 ring road around the city. He said that the M25 did not resolve London's congestion problem. On the contrary, by encouraging people to drive more, it created more congestion and London ended up with a giant carpark for a ring road. London eventually decided to go the way of Singapore by introducing congestion charging in 2003. They started with £5 (S$15) and later raised it to £8 (S$24) per day per vehicle - much higher than our ERP charges. Congestion in central London dropped by some 30 per cent. London's experience shows that even though it seems that the obvious solution to traffic congestion is to simply increase road capacity, this is not a sustainable solution as traffic will expand to fill up the additional road space.
Other European cities are closely studying Singapore and London's example. Stockholm has just introduced congestion charging after a successful trial last year. In the United States, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is proposing a US$8 (S$12) toll to deal with congestion in New York City.
Our ERP system has been effective in keeping our roads and expressways smooth-flowing, above 45kmh for expressways and above 20kmh on arterial roads. ERP helps to manage congestion by encouraging motorists to change their period of travel, mode of travel or use a different route. Had it not been for ERP, we would be facing traffic gridlock on numerous roads.
Take the case of the ECP. Before ERP was introduced in 1998, the travel speed was as low as 36kmh between 8.30am and 9am. Today, the average speed is above 55kmh during that half hour. Similarly for Orchard Road, average travel speeds on weekday evenings and on Saturday afternoons have improved from about 17kmh to 23kmh since ERP was implemented in October 2005.
Furthermore, with the introduction of ERP in 1998, the Government has been able to rely more on car usage charges and less on car ownership taxes to manage traffic demand. Vehicle ownership taxes have been reduced and, as a result, annual vehicle ownership revenue fell from $3.4 billion in 1997 to $1.7 billion in 2006 compared to about $90 million in annual ERP revenue collected during that period. ERP has thus proven to be a more effective approach to managing traffic demand, and it costs motorists much less overall. Indeed, ERP is meant to be a congestion and not a revenue measure, so if motorists drive less and the roads are smooth-flowing, the Government will be happy to collect less. In effect, ERP rates can be adjusted down, as much as up, depending on the traffic speed on the roads.
With the use of ERP to manage traffic, this has also made it possible for more Singaporeans to own cars. Our vehicle population has grown from 680,000 in 1998 to 800,000 in 2006. However, to accommodate more vehicles on our roads, we have had to expand the ERP system from time to time. ERP started in 1998 on the ECP, CTE, PIE and around the CBD. It was then expanded to the AYE, and the arterial roads to relieve congestion at the Outer Cordon in 1999. It was subsequently extended to Dunearn Road in 2002 and, more recently in 2005, to the northbound CTE in the evening and to Orchard Road on Saturdays.
To keep ERP effective, we need to continually adjust our ERP coverage. The traffic situation is always dynamic; changes in income levels, vehicle population and drivers' travel patterns all affect traffic demand.
In this regard, over the last two years, traffic levels have been gradually but noticeably building up. More roads are congested, especially during peak hours, including in the evenings. The LTA has reviewed the situation, and decided to build a few more ERP gantries and extend the ERP hours on the CTE. LTA will be announcing the details of its review later. Overall, these changes will help to improve traffic conditions on our roads.
Now, we sometimes hear criticisms of the ERP system. Some have observed that introducing or raising ERP charges relieve congestion temporarily but, after a while, the congestion comes back. Others, especially those using the CTE, have complained that the ERP is unfair. They say that depending on where you join the expressway, some motorists add to the congestion without paying for it. This is feedback that we value. It shows that ERP coverage may need to be more extensive or pricing better fine-tuned. This is why we need to review the coverage of ERP on our roads regularly.
In the longer term, LTA is looking at how to upgrade ERP technology to put in place a more effective system of congestion charging. One possibility is to use GPS technology. We are working on this, but it is probably still a few years away as the technology is not quite ready.
Looking ahead, we can expect traffic on our roads to get heavier, particularly the roads leading into and out of the city. Today, ERP is introduced principally on a point-by-point basis. LTA is studying how we can deal with peak-hour congestion more holistically and effectively, taking into account overall traffic conditions, for example in the CBD. LTA is also reviewing the optimal speed ranges on our roads and the response of motorists to the present structure of our congestion charges.
Our vehicle growth rate will also have to be reviewed. We must remember that the current 3 per cent growth rate cap is on an ever-increasing base. In 1990, when the 3 per cent cap was introduced, it amounted to 16,000 additional vehicles a year. Today 3 per cent amounts to 24,000 additional vehicles every year. Against this is the fact that road growth was only 1 per cent per year in the last 15 years, going down to about 0.5 per cent over the next 15 years.
As long as we want more cars on the roads, ERP coverage will invariably get more extensive and charges higher over time. This is a key trade- off that we have to make if we want both car growth and smooth flowing roads. The Government is thus looking at what the appropriate balance should be in the future, between vehicle growth rates, usage charges and ownership taxes.
These measures will be part of the current comprehensive review of our land transport policies. We will need to make significant changes in order to keep our roads free-flowing, our trains and buses efficient and convenient and our city liveable and both people- and business-friendly. We are studying these measures carefully and will announce them early next year after the completion of the review.
Our aim is to have a sustainable transport system that supports continued population and economic growth and the higher expectations that come with being a First World city.
Building a better public transport system is a critical part of this. Refining the ERP system in tandem with other measures such as road-building and controlling vehicle population growth is equally important. Together, these measures ensure that we have a quality urban living environment - a city in a garden and not, as in many cities of the world, a city in a carpark.
CITY IN A GARDEN
These measures ensure that we have a quality urban living environment - a city in a garden and not, as in many cities of the world, a city in a carpark.
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